Goals isn't the only criteria for a player to win the Ballon d'or. Normally players like Harry kane and Kylian are expected to score more goals than wingers or midfielders. If you Watch Barcelona last season, Lamine Yamal has the highest chance creation in his team and probably in La liga, because that's what his role is as winger. Because of that he was able to win the best player of the season over Kylian Mbappe, even though mbappe scored more goals. In the Bundesliga too, the Player of the season was also given to Olise , even though Harry Kane scored over 40 goals. This is why I feel this Ballon d'or will be tight and it's between Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane. Another player that I believe would win it, is Rodri due to being the best player in the FIFA world cup tournament, but is still don't think that will increase his chances of winning, he didn't give the type of Performance Messi gave in 2022 WC and also 2026 WC. But everything is in the hands of the Journalists, they are the one who decides the Winner.
If the Ballon d'Or were awarded solely to the player who scores the most goals, it would already be Kilian's. But since it's not, and they consider other things very strange criteria it's possible that Rodri himself could win it again. They shouldn't complicate this award so much; it should go to the player who scores the most goals.
The candidates are very good if you include Kilian, Harry, and Lamine they are players who performed well. Rodri could be included in that list, it's like you said, it depends on the journalists.
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