why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage?

[MainIbem]

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I think that is the reason why other people who might have also seen these statistics or thought about it didn't even bother to chase it, there are too many variables and too many ways that this could go wrong.

Just like you said, one needs to take a bet on all matches to be able to win it, and the more you bet, the more you risk; the higher the amount that you would risk for something that doesn't happen all the time and also doesn't happen in all games. It might look good in statistics and on paper, but the moment you sit to think about it, you would instantly realise that it is not worth even trying at all.

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

[sompitonov]

I think it's probably just a coincidence, but it could also be a combination of many factors, such as player fatigue and one team's increased intensity. It could also be that one team is defending, not wanting to win and simply wanting to waste time, while the other team sees a chance to equalize and throws everything they have into it. Incidentally, at the last World Cup, I really noticed a lot of goals in the final minutes, but I haven't looked at the statistics for other leagues. Perhaps the same thing is happening there, which would certainly indicate a change in processes and strategies in football.

[Alex077]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

There are msny reason why there are more goal at the end. Teams behind take more risk. And teams ahead defend deeper. As a result, scoring probability changes itself according to the scoreline and game state.

So my answer would be, yes. This pattern is a hypothesis worth testing for betting. But you need to backtest with historical data and look at ROI and CLV and sample size against closing or live odd to prove edge. that will tell us if we just re-pricing football's well-known late goal tendency or not.

[Cheema02]

I think it's probably just a coincidence, but it could also be a combination of many factors, such as player fatigue and one team's increased intensity. It could also be that one team is defending, not wanting to win and simply wanting to waste time, while the other team sees a chance to equalize and throws everything they have into it. Incidentally, at the last World Cup, I really noticed a lot of goals in the final minutes, but I haven't looked at the statistics for other leagues. Perhaps the same thing is happening there, which would certainly indicate a change in processes and strategies in football.

It might have something to do with the strategies of both teams, but I don't think player fatigue can be a reason for it, because if that's the case, then players from both sides should face the same problem, but if one side is still active while the other side is not, it doesn't indicate that it's because the players from one side are tired while the other team is still going well, because obviously, even if a team has some substitutes, they can't do that with all their players on the field, and both sides can do the same number of substitutions in a match.

I do agree with you on the strategy thing though. It is possible that maybe some teams play more defensively while the other team goes on attack mode, and in that case, the team trying to defend loses and attacking team scores. And, even if both sides start attacking more on the last few minutes, it is possible that one of them or even both succeed in scoring, so they might be trying to defend in the whole game, and then start attacking towards the end.

[Inior]

It could be worth experimenting to see if it works, but for me i'd rather not blindly live bet the totals in the last ten minutes with this information alone. Those bigger percentages could come from the top or mid teams, and to me there's more to it than what we see on paper.

On the other hand, it's great for those who regularly pre-live bet on goal-related markets. It gives them one more reason not to cash out until the end.

One thing about betting is that we can easily see everything as an opportunity but this doesn't work out as planned. The game Tottenham played yesterday is an example of this, their opponent scored 2 goals and towards the end of the game a lot of bettors placed a bet on them to score one goal before the game ends, this was what most Bettors that played the liver expected but it was quite disappointing that the game ended as 2:0. This is just to let you know that there are no guarantees to this system and not every bettor gets lucky with it.

[ColdLava40]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Under probability you will be able to get a few but don't put hopes on it.

It's a good observation and one reason for this is because during the last minute both teams are urged to use their last resort. This is even the part of the game I enjoy the most, seeing them struggle to fight for the winner up makes the game more Intensed.

But thinking of exploiting these dieing minutes goal will be outrageous. I'm sure you aren't the first to think of it plus if it were fixable many people would just wait to see what happens at the dieing minutes to bet on

[Bright0515]

I would not say take advantage because there are no ways to take advantage.  the goals that are being scored in the final moments of the game are based on a lot on the pressure of out doing the other team. A lot of times we have seen situations where the goal is scored at the dying minute and both teams end up equalizing. To the gamblers that actually goes both ways because this would be in favour of some Bettor. Goals can be Scored by anytime and not really much of a Big Beal, it is not really a rule of thumb for goals to be scored in the last minute.

[Ishicryptic]

It could be worth experimenting to see if it works, but for me i'd rather not blindly live bet the totals in the last ten minutes with this information alone. Those bigger percentages could come from the top or mid teams, and to me there's more to it than what we see on paper.

On the other hand, it's great for those who regularly pre-live bet on goal-related markets. It gives them one more reason not to cash out until the end.

One thing about betting is that we can easily see everything as an opportunity but this doesn't work out as planned. The game Tottenham played yesterday is an example of this, their opponent scored 2 goals and towards the end of the game a lot of bettors placed a bet on them to score one goal before the game ends, this was what most Bettors that played the liver expected but it was quite disappointing that the game ended as 2:0. This is just to let you know that there are no guarantees to this system and not every bettor gets lucky with it.

No matter the strategy that you use to win your bet their is no guarantee that it would give you a win, on paper a lot of bet strategies looks feasible enough for you to follow their patterns and get a sure win but in the end luck is what you actually need most to win. The strategy of expecting more goals towards the end of a match makes sense because we see the zeal of a team that needed desperately to score come alive and you would wonder why they didn't put so much intensity throughout the game before the final moments for goals do happen. We also have to remember that their opponent who doesn't want to conceive a goal in the final minutes would be playing more defensively so we cannot say that goals must happen in the last minutes and want to take advantage of it by betting irresponsibly. No matter how sure you are about goals in the final minutes you should remember that you're gambling your money and you need luck to win not actually what you believe.