why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage?

[MainIbem]

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I think that is the reason why other people who might have also seen these statistics or thought about it didn't even bother to chase it, there are too many variables and too many ways that this could go wrong.

Just like you said, one needs to take a bet on all matches to be able to win it, and the more you bet, the more you risk; the higher the amount that you would risk for something that doesn't happen all the time and also doesn't happen in all games. It might look good in statistics and on paper, but the moment you sit to think about it, you would instantly realise that it is not worth even trying at all.

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

[sompitonov]

I think it's probably just a coincidence, but it could also be a combination of many factors, such as player fatigue and one team's increased intensity. It could also be that one team is defending, not wanting to win and simply wanting to waste time, while the other team sees a chance to equalize and throws everything they have into it. Incidentally, at the last World Cup, I really noticed a lot of goals in the final minutes, but I haven't looked at the statistics for other leagues. Perhaps the same thing is happening there, which would certainly indicate a change in processes and strategies in football.

[Alex077]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

There are msny reason why there are more goal at the end. Teams behind take more risk. And teams ahead defend deeper. As a result, scoring probability changes itself according to the scoreline and game state.

So my answer would be, yes. This pattern is a hypothesis worth testing for betting. But you need to backtest with historical data and look at ROI and CLV and sample size against closing or live odd to prove edge. that will tell us if we just re-pricing football's well-known late goal tendency or not.

[Cheema02]

I think it's probably just a coincidence, but it could also be a combination of many factors, such as player fatigue and one team's increased intensity. It could also be that one team is defending, not wanting to win and simply wanting to waste time, while the other team sees a chance to equalize and throws everything they have into it. Incidentally, at the last World Cup, I really noticed a lot of goals in the final minutes, but I haven't looked at the statistics for other leagues. Perhaps the same thing is happening there, which would certainly indicate a change in processes and strategies in football.

It might have something to do with the strategies of both teams, but I don't think player fatigue can be a reason for it, because if that's the case, then players from both sides should face the same problem, but if one side is still active while the other side is not, it doesn't indicate that it's because the players from one side are tired while the other team is still going well, because obviously, even if a team has some substitutes, they can't do that with all their players on the field, and both sides can do the same number of substitutions in a match.

I do agree with you on the strategy thing though. It is possible that maybe some teams play more defensively while the other team goes on attack mode, and in that case, the team trying to defend loses and attacking team scores. And, even if both sides start attacking more on the last few minutes, it is possible that one of them or even both succeed in scoring, so they might be trying to defend in the whole game, and then start attacking towards the end.

[Inior]

It could be worth experimenting to see if it works, but for me i'd rather not blindly live bet the totals in the last ten minutes with this information alone. Those bigger percentages could come from the top or mid teams, and to me there's more to it than what we see on paper.

On the other hand, it's great for those who regularly pre-live bet on goal-related markets. It gives them one more reason not to cash out until the end.

One thing about betting is that we can easily see everything as an opportunity but this doesn't work out as planned. The game Tottenham played yesterday is an example of this, their opponent scored 2 goals and towards the end of the game a lot of bettors placed a bet on them to score one goal before the game ends, this was what most Bettors that played the liver expected but it was quite disappointing that the game ended as 2:0. This is just to let you know that there are no guarantees to this system and not every bettor gets lucky with it.

[ColdLava40]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Under probability you will be able to get a few but don't put hopes on it.

It's a good observation and one reason for this is because during the last minute both teams are urged to use their last resort. This is even the part of the game I enjoy the most, seeing them struggle to fight for the winner up makes the game more Intensed.

But thinking of exploiting these dieing minutes goal will be outrageous. I'm sure you aren't the first to think of it plus if it were fixable many people would just wait to see what happens at the dieing minutes to bet on

[Bright0515]

I would not say take advantage because there are no ways to take advantage.  the goals that are being scored in the final moments of the game are based on a lot on the pressure of out doing the other team. A lot of times we have seen situations where the goal is scored at the dying minute and both teams end up equalizing. To the gamblers that actually goes both ways because this would be in favour of some Bettor. Goals can be Scored by anytime and not really much of a Big Beal, it is not really a rule of thumb for goals to be scored in the last minute.

[Ishicryptic]

It could be worth experimenting to see if it works, but for me i'd rather not blindly live bet the totals in the last ten minutes with this information alone. Those bigger percentages could come from the top or mid teams, and to me there's more to it than what we see on paper.

On the other hand, it's great for those who regularly pre-live bet on goal-related markets. It gives them one more reason not to cash out until the end.

One thing about betting is that we can easily see everything as an opportunity but this doesn't work out as planned. The game Tottenham played yesterday is an example of this, their opponent scored 2 goals and towards the end of the game a lot of bettors placed a bet on them to score one goal before the game ends, this was what most Bettors that played the liver expected but it was quite disappointing that the game ended as 2:0. This is just to let you know that there are no guarantees to this system and not every bettor gets lucky with it.

No matter the strategy that you use to win your bet their is no guarantee that it would give you a win, on paper a lot of bet strategies looks feasible enough for you to follow their patterns and get a sure win but in the end luck is what you actually need most to win. The strategy of expecting more goals towards the end of a match makes sense because we see the zeal of a team that needed desperately to score come alive and you would wonder why they didn't put so much intensity throughout the game before the final moments for goals do happen. We also have to remember that their opponent who doesn't want to conceive a goal in the final minutes would be playing more defensively so we cannot say that goals must happen in the last minutes and want to take advantage of it by betting irresponsibly. No matter how sure you are about goals in the final minutes you should remember that you're gambling your money and you need luck to win not actually what you believe.

[Versatile_choice]

I would not say take advantage because there are no ways to take advantage.  the goals that are being scored in the final moments of the game are based on a lot on the pressure of out doing the other team. A lot of times we have seen situations where the goal is scored at the dying minute and both teams end up equalizing. To the gamblers that actually goes both ways because this would be in favour of some Bettor Goals can be Scored by anytime and not really much of a Big Beal, it is not really a rule of thumb for goals to be scored in the last minute.

Sure, goal can be scored at any time and no one is disputing on that. Just as the topic says "why are more goals scored in the final minutes" To me this is a very good question because I also observed that goals usually come during the final minutes, and that's due to pressure. Maybe a team is losing and they just realize that the time is running out, at that point they will want to put all their effort just to ensure that they equalizer the goals or even win depending on the scores. so that's just the main reason why more goals is been scored in the final minutes. If there are other reasons aside from this one then I will like to know.

[Iamgoat]

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

You know gambling addiction is generally all about entrapment. When you start practicing gambling habits which are going to make you feel entrapped into gambling, gambling is something you should be able to control to a very great extent in such a way you do it willingly and not out of compulsion because the moment you begin to have such compulsive tendencies in gambling, you are already gradually becoming addicted without fully recognizing which can be detrimental to your mental health and your financial stability or as it is also called, financial security.

[ArabBTC]

I think it's probably just a coincidence, but it could also be a combination of many factors, such as player fatigue and one team's increased intensity. It could also be that one team is defending, not wanting to win and simply wanting to waste time, while the other team sees a chance to equalize and throws everything they have into it. Incidentally, at the last World Cup, I really noticed a lot of goals in the final minutes, but I haven't looked at the statistics for other leagues. Perhaps the same thing is happening there, which would certainly indicate a change in processes and strategies in football.

I feel it’s not coincidence because it happens repeatedly even in yesterday’s EPL matches, the match between Chelsea and Brighton there was a last minute goal even that between Man U and Ipswich, i just feel most teams start thinking that they have already won in the last minutes especially when they are up to two goals ahead and doesn’t put in so much marking efforts in the last minutes, most coaches should really take serious precautions in the last minutes else it might ruin the end score line just as we almost witnessed yesterday in Chelsea match against Ipswich, the match almost ended draw.

[Outhue]

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

The study might be correct, but it boils down to which leagues and specific teams are actually in this category and how often the pattern  replicate among such teams, does it happen mostly at the beginning of leagues or ending? This is a random occurrence and in the few matches I've watched in this current season of various leagues, it didn't play out like that.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Well you can make it more convincing by experimenting yourself, if you can win long-term in it, then it would be an established strategy.

I respect your opinion but you aren't correct when you said it depends on specific teams, every teams will perform different in every matches because a opponent they played with won't the be next on the menu, so what happened in a arsenal match won't likely repeat in the next, just because time is running out and things are starting to get intense doesn't mean they they would score a goal or more goals, yes the likelihood is there and it's just too dumb to go into a bet because of this.

[TopTort777]

I think increased percentage of goal on last minute of period or game is cause by fatigue. After almost whole period of playing, by the end players got tired and tend to do mistakes. Some of them dont fight till end as they think period or game is over. They think more about rest than about result. As a result they let opponent play more active and score. Those who are losing use all-or-nothing on last minutes, they had nothing to lose, but winners with last strength try to hold the score.

[Lannakosa]

I would not say take advantage because there are no ways to take advantage.  the goals that are being scored in the final moments of the game are based on a lot on the pressure of out doing the other team. A lot of times we have seen situations where the goal is scored at the dying minute and both teams end up equalizing. To the gamblers that actually goes both ways because this would be in favour of some Bettor. Goals can be Scored by anytime and not really much of a Big Beal, it is not really a rule of thumb for goals to be scored in the last minute.

I’ve noticed a tendency that a lot of goals are scored in the final minutes of matches. But it seems to me that significantly more goals are actually scored in the middle of the second half. That’s the period when the teams have already understood each other’s strategy, identified the weak points in the opponent’s defense, and start becoming more active in an attempt to score.

Towards the end of the match, teams are mostly focused on defending and trying to hold on to a winning score. Or, if they haven’t managed to score, they continue attacking while the other team keeps defending. But that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more goals at the end of the match.

[TheUltraElite]

If you notice carefully,

one peak is at the last 10mins and the other peak (look closely) is at the halftime 10mins.

This shows that people who get fatigued have a chance of getting goals scored on either team maybe attributable to fatigue. What we can take advantage is if there are possibilities of betting on these times, but we have to understand that this is a known fact and bookies are not that gullible that they will keep such bets open.

But when you are betting with friends and they are unaware of this knowledge, you might be able to use it to your advantage.

[Kelward]

I think increased percentage of goal on last minute of period or game is cause by fatigue. After almost whole period of playing, by the end players got tired and tend to do mistakes. Some of them dont fight till end as they think period or game is over. They think more about rest than about result. As a result they let opponent play more active and score. Those who are losing use all-or-nothing on last minutes, they had nothing to lose, but winners with last strength try to hold the score.

Being very active and playing for almost ninety minutes would naturally make players to become tired and it can create lapses for late goals to be scored, they would naturally want the game to be over so that they can take physical rest and also relax their minds. Last minutes are also the time when teams that needs crucial goals would become energized and aggressive to score and if there are lapses from the favorite team who don't need any crucial goals that is when unexpected goals would start to come in. Last minutes in a game is where teams that needs to have goal margins would become more offensive to score while the teams who don't necessarily need any goals would be defensive.

[meser#]

In some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

OFC, that data can be used as a reference for placing bets. However, you need to remember that the data won't guarantee a winning bet in the end. Among the various options in football betting, one I dislike is predicting the minute a goal will be scored, this is usually divided into six part, such as:

• 0' - 15'
• 16' - 30'
• 31 - 45' (injury time included)
• 46' - 60'
• 61' - 75'
• 76 - 90' (injury time included)

Since we don't really know when a goal will happen, it makes our bets riskier, even with big odds. I prefer to bet on handicap or 1X2, it's wiser & safer.

Betting on the timing of a goal is a type of wager I never choose.
Where you play, the intervals are fifteen minutes long, whereas on the site I use, they are ten-minute periods.
If I were to place a bet during the final moments of a match, I would opt for the "goal to be scored" option. That is because there is a high probability of a goal resulting from a counter-attack at that stage.
To bet on a goal occurring within a specific time interval, the match needs to be high-scoring and full of scoring opportunities; otherwise, betting on time intervals makes no sense at all.

[bakasabo]

If we look on statistics by period, then there isnt such a great difference in % between goals scored on last minute and in the middle of a period. Only end of the game to overall game length/period stands out. I think if someone wants to place a bet before the game has started, then this statistics wont help him a lot. It only can be useful if you are watching game life, and still statistics will only increase your chances only in some betting lines "goal total under/over".

[Uhwuchukwu53]

Well pressure is the force that leads to many team mistake as well leads to some teams success it's two way sided thing, many team are under serious pressure to meet up target mostly the strongest team that will leads to more goals likewise in aspect of lossing the pressure can course some unwanted mistake of lost in a particular game. For the coach most error is identified and those changes strengthen the team mostly coach that knows what is doing all this can make more goals at last minute mean while don't forget that to play 90 minutes plus in the pitch is not easy it takes the stronger team to increase their speed and energy to make goals so the strongest team scores more as their opponent get weaker in strength.

[Yeesha]

There are msny reason why there are more goal at the end. Teams behind take more risk. And teams ahead defend deeper. As a result, scoring probability changes itself according to the scoreline and game state.

So my answer would be, yes. This pattern is a hypothesis worth testing for betting. But you need to backtest with historical data and look at ROI and CLV and sample size against closing or live odd to prove edge. that will tell us if we just re-pricing football's well-known late goal tendency or not.

The players usually have hope till the last minute, and everything is possible even at a dime minute. So they usually take advantage and shoot a shot. When the time is reaching the exhausting time players usually become more serious to protect other opponents from taking advantage of their weakness. More energy usually lies in the final minute, the loosing team will be willing to take their chances while the winning teams will be fighting for it opposite. Football is not as easy as it seems to be, but despite the challenges that arise the players still risk their lives and give their all, just to make their fans happy.