BTC Sentiment Poll for September

[hedgeh0g]

In my opinion, this is a time of uncertainty, and it's better to wait for the weekly candle to close, as we're breaking the previous resistance level at 82.800...
In fact, judging by glassnode's analytics, almost all short-term holders' Bitcoin volume has already crossed the so-called sell line. This is the level above which the risk of profit-taking typically increases, leading to a price halt at a minimum, and a correction at a maximum.
The chart shows that this signal doesn't always trigger (but has been more frequent recently), so it's best considered in conjunction with other indicators.
And now is a great time to claim the profits for those who invested 60k in Bitcoin.


https://x.com/glassnode/status/2102787768606982210

[STT]

BTC is doing well with a higher dollar, despite the pullback its relatively strong.   Lows above 82850, the weekly average is catching up and we'll see if that momentum causes upset and a loss of support in this area. 
  I agree on the weekly closing bar probably being a crescendo for BTC price action.

[Wind_FURY]

I hear a lot of voices that the current spike in stocks, especially Nasdaq (and by extension on Bitcoin) will be short-lived and the optimism is not really justified by the actual macroeconomic situation. I understand the sentiment. Fuel prices are going up like crazy all over the world, and any temporary PR and another portion of "good news" won't change that. Unless we see any concrete actions, the rise in inflation rates is inevitable.

But then again, the market is not always rational. We've been hearing doom scenarios for a long while now, but we are still going up.

Many respected analysts are struggling to make sense of it. Most recently, Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) forfeited his bearish position and admitted he was wrong:
https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2102007452057079986


I'm not even going to pretend I know what is going on. I guess I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Rational or not, the 25 bps increase by the Federal Reserve didn't cause massive panic. But Crude Oil prices are going down, WHICH will be good for helping in a decrease in inflation, WHICH might also suggest that the recent 25 bps rate hike might not be followed by another hike during the next FOMC meeting in October 28 and 29.

Although many pundits believe that there will be another 25 bps rate hike during that meeting.

The stakes are already high and October 28,th / 29 th is still more than 30 days to go. Let's simply enjoy the Bitcoin gains now....  The NEXT Bitcoin All time high is already building up....

Plus those people who actually believe that another 25 bps rate hike would cause Bitcoin to crash might not be considering the FACT that it's already priced in. Plus what they're not considering is if the inflation numbers are better causing the Federal Reserve NOT to do another rate hike, no?

No rate hike is NOT priced in, and THAT will cause a surge to $90,000 if indeed that's the decision.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Source

Taking a short position at this time is really risky. The market can start moving in the opposite direction at any time. In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by approximately 2.47%. There is a tendency of liquidation among traders. Many forecasts are working to keep Bitcoin in its current price trend. Because after the bull run of the last few days, the current correction observed means that there has been a lot of liquidation process and those traders will buy more and we will see another bull again within this month.

Yes, it's best to wait for the 24-hour candle to close. However, I wouldn't risk trading right now because, although circumstances suggest it could pull back to a level below $80k, the opposite could happen. Therefore, making such quick decisions isn't advisable.

In the short term, things are different, but I wouldn't trade BTC now either. Volatility is at its peak. As I said before, the volume speaks for itself; you just have to know how to read it. It's not easy. In fact, I've read some books that specialize in reading volume (Wyckoff and some by Livermore), which I highly recommend.

[SatsPH]

BTC is doing well with a higher dollar, despite the pullback its relatively strong.   Lows above 82850, the weekly average is catching up and we'll see if that momentum causes upset and a loss of support in this area. 
  I agree on the weekly closing bar probably being a crescendo for BTC price action.

Right, it looks very strong before the end of the this month. Although we might be looking at around $85k threshold as we have reached this price and even have strong support, somewhat there is a selling pressure.

So with that, we might still though looking and closing the weekly bar with positive position and again, it could still trigger some positive going on the next month. Going to be interesting movement in the last 3 months for us, but we should take it monthly and see how the market will do.

[tokeweed]

A week ago I thought the market was gonna start getting boring because it's gonna be in easy mode.  But now it looks like October is gonna be a fun one for the monthly poll because everybody will be wondering if we really are out of the bear market or not.

Next month will prolly be the same poll.  Let's see if the guys who voted that we're out of the bear market change their minds.   

Stay safe out there guys.

[Btcdeybodi]

A week ago I thought the market was gonna start getting boring because it's gonna be in easy mode.  But now it looks like October is gonna be a fun one for the monthly poll because everybody will be wondering if we really are out of the bear market or not.

Next month will prolly be the same poll.  Let's see if the guys who voted that we're out of the bear market change their minds.   

Stay safe out there guys.

If not that we are still in the bear season, October is mostly a month of bullish movement in the price of bitcoin. Last year October was when the price of Bitcoin reached the ATH of $126k before the market started dropping till the price it is currently. August and September has been bullish months so it is fair enough if we take it that the bear market is nearing the ending stages, though it doesn't mean that the market will suddenly react positively and begins a bull run.

[Dave1]

If not that we are still in the bear season, October is mostly a month of bullish movement in the price of bitcoin. Last year October was when the price of Bitcoin reached the ATH of $126k before the market started dropping till the price it is currently. August and September has been bullish months so it is fair enough if we take it that the bear market is nearing the ending stages, though it doesn't mean that the market will suddenly react positively and begins a bull run.

This could be very different though, we've seen that August or September is really a good month for us. And as you have said, last year, in this time frame, we have reach new all time high. And so there could be a lot of expectations that as the start of October we might see a bullish somewhat trend like August.

But we will see, at least two months of seeing a net positive uptick in prize is a good indication that market is already on the way to put a case that bearish cycle is over. However, we all know that it can also flip all of a sudden, so we should still be very smart in how to react in every market movement.

[Texac]

If not that we are still in the bear season, October is mostly a month of bullish movement in the price of bitcoin. Last year October was when the price of Bitcoin reached the ATH of $126k before the market started dropping till the price it is currently. August and September has been bullish months so it is fair enough if we take it that the bear market is nearing the ending stages, though it doesn't mean that the market will suddenly react positively and begins a bull run.

This could be very different though, we've seen that August or September is really a good month for us. And as you have said, last year, in this time frame, we have reach new all time high. And so there could be a lot of expectations that as the start of October we might see a bullish somewhat trend like August.

But we will see, at least two months of seeing a net positive uptick in prize is a good indication that market is already on the way to put a case that bearish cycle is over. However, we all know that it can also flip all of a sudden, so we should still be very smart in how to react in every market movement.

In my humble opinion, we should be more cautious than optimistic for last 3month of the year.

August and September are usually weak month for market, while October and November are the ones actually worth getting hyped for. But this year's played out differently from that pattern. Both pumped, and historically there is barely any year where Bitcoin keeps climbing 3 to 4 month straight. Not to mention we are still in bear market and Q4 is usually when price action sweeps for a fresh bottom.

So, we should be even more careful here and not get overconfident just because of how things look right now, cause nothing's guaranteed.

[okorieemmanuel]

Source

Taking a short position at this time is really risky. The market can start moving in the opposite direction at any time. In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by approximately 2.47%. There is a tendency of liquidation among traders. Many forecasts are working to keep Bitcoin in its current price trend. Because after the bull run of the last few days, the current correction observed means that there has been a lot of liquidation process and those traders will buy more and we will see another bull again within this month.

Yes, it's best to wait for the 24-hour candle to close. However, I wouldn't risk trading right now because, although circumstances suggest it could pull back to a level below $80k, the opposite could happen. Therefore, making such quick decisions isn't advisable.

In the short term, things are different, but I wouldn't trade BTC now either. Volatility is at its peak. As I said before, the volume speaks for itself; you just have to know how to read it. It's not easy. In fact, I've read some books that specialize in reading volume (Wyckoff and some by Livermore), which I highly recommend.

There is a shift in volume due to buying and selling panicking. Nevertheless , it is still dependent on the closing price. The probability of sell is gradually fading but not over . Everything still seems intact here

[pawel7777]

Tomorrow is the last day of the month.
It looks like we are most likely to see a third consecutive calendar month that ends in green. And we're not talking about minimal greens:
July: +7.36%
August: +24.95%
September: +5.84 (as of today)

This definitely does not look like the middle of a bear market. Is it too soon to talk about the trend reversal, or are three months enough to announce the return of the bull trend?

[pawel7777]

(...)
Rational or not, the 25 bps increase by the Federal Reserve didn't cause massive panic. But Crude Oil prices are going down, WHICH will be good for helping in a decrease in inflation, WHICH might also suggest that the recent 25 bps rate hike might not be followed by another hike during the next FOMC meeting in October 28 and 29.

Although many pundits believe that there will be another 25 bps rate hike during that meeting.

To me, the big question is whether there is, or will be, an oil shortage. The price can be manipulated up or down; we can see spikes when bad news breaks out and dips when markets calm down, but ultimately you cannot print oil. If there is an actual shortage and strategic oil reserves get depleted, we will see an increase in inflation and an economic slowdown. The reality check could be brutal.

[greysonz]

Bitcoin gained $1,000 following the initial reaction to US inflation data, further cementing September's status as a "red month" in monthly statistics. Apparently, the "September curse" that once plagued the market is no longer in effect. It's even possible that September will close with its best results ever. After all, from 2013 to 2025, eight out of 13 Septembers ended in negative territory for Bitcoin, including six consecutive months from 2017 to 2022. As for next month, after a red October, the next one has always been green. Two out of two. Looking ahead, we can assume this October will also be green.

[pooya87]

To me, the big question is whether there is, or will be, an oil shortage. The price can be manipulated up or down; we can see spikes when bad news breaks out and dips when markets calm down, but ultimately you cannot print oil. If there is an actual shortage and strategic oil reserves get depleted, we will see an increase in inflation and an economic slowdown. The reality check could be brutal.

The "virtual" oil market where the price is being reported from is the most manipulated market at the time being. Even more than the altcoin market
The real price and the severe shortage is seen at the gas pumps where the price of petrol and diesel are shooting through the roof and are not coming back down.

The dumping of strategic oil reserves cannot continue suppressing the price artificially forever either. It is possible that after the election, the pedophile POTUS stops dumping SPR (it becomes harder to extract it too as the levels drop) and let the price fly.

[LUCKMCFLY]

There is a shift in volume due to buying and selling panicking. Nevertheless , it is still dependent on the closing price. The probability of sell is gradually fading but not over . Everything still seems intact here

Volume doesn't lie. For me, there's still a good indication of being bullish, but there are many bears or people who are very interested in keeping the price from going up. I don't know the exact reason; maybe they want to generate panic so that more BTC is sold and others can buy more BTC at a lower price.

In any case, monitoring is our only weapon to stay in the market, and those of us who do DCA will be very active and attentive to any dip in order to gradually buy. For me, things remain the same; the price is in an acceptable range, neither low nor high, but I would say it's trending upwards.

[Olatundespo]

There is a shift in volume due to buying and selling panicking. Nevertheless , it is still dependent on the closing price. The probability of sell is gradually fading but not over . Everything still seems intact here

Volume doesn't lie. For me, there's still a good indication of being bullish, but there are many bears or people who are very interested in keeping the price from going up. I don't know the exact reason; maybe they want to generate panic so that more BTC is sold and others can buy more BTC at a lower price.

In any case, monitoring is our only weapon to stay in the market, and those of us who do DCA will be very active and attentive to any dip in order to gradually buy. For me, things remain the same; the price is in an acceptable range, neither low nor high, but I would say it's trending upwards.

The situation is almost the same, only the month has changed. There are already hints of a possible bull run in October. Some say that last year's ATH will have an impact this year. Nothing is certain right now but it would be best to run a DCA based on the probability.

A large amount of funds have entered ETF in the last month. The intention of this large number of investors is not only short-term, most of them may be in long-term investment plans. At this time, the market is unlikely to easily go bearish and there are enough signs of bullishness.

The weapon to actively survive in the market is DCA, where the priority should be to accumulate Bitcoin regularly, regardless of the price decline or increase. A sustainable strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings before the price increases too much.

[Btcdeybodi]

In my humble opinion, we should be more cautious than optimistic for last 3month of the year.

August and September are usually weak month for market, while October and November are the ones actually worth getting hyped for. But this year's played out differently from that pattern. Both pumped, and historically there is barely any year where Bitcoin keeps climbing 3 to 4 month straight. Not to mention we are still in bear market and Q4 is usually when price action sweeps for a fresh bottom.

So, we should be even more careful here and not get overconfident just because of how things look right now, cause nothing's guaranteed.

There is nothing wrong if we become optimistic, considering how the market has been reacting positively. We suffered several months of bearish trends and now, the market is experiencing recovery so it can still go months of streak bullish movement.

Contrary to how the price of bitcoin usually react during the "EMBER" months, it could be that there is a real shift this year because August and September was supposed to reddish months but they ended green. Now, we are in October and we are already seeing bullish signals so it might just be that the rest of the months for this year will likely be bullish. We have a reason to smile again and even if the market takes a different turn, we should enjoy this moment.

[pooya87]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

[okorieemmanuel]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

Yeah right! The upward trend was weak during the analysis but right now, everything change. Everyone is still watching the reaction to this level. When will Bitcoin sentiment for UPTOBER BEGIN?

[dwyane36]

It's interesting that most answers said "no" to the end of bear market despite the fact that August proved bear market is over and also September itself was actually a decent month. Even though in the first two weeks we saw some drops (the correction after breaking $80k) but the second half of September was mostly rises and now we enter October in a strong way with breaking $85k resistance and as I'm typing this price is almost $87k.

This latest move by BTC from $83k to the current $86.5k is encouraging, especially at the beginning of October. Most likely, the BTC price will soon break through the $87k level and surge into the $90-100k range. So if there are no unpleasant surprises in the market, I believe we could see $100k as early as this month.