is bitcoin really cursed every september?

[coinrifft]

September is not necessarily a cursed month however, we are currently observing some weakness in the Bitcoin market. While market performance was quite strong in August, the momentum has slowed down this month. We have seen red candles indicating a price drop this month, but we hope this trend will not be prolonged after all, there have been instances in the past where the market moved upwards during September. Historical charts show that Bitcoin's performance in September is often lackluster, leading many to label the month as cursed for the market. Nevertheless, we can certainly anticipate a shift in this pattern in the future, potentially changing the month associated with such trends. Regardless, we remain quite positive about the market performance still appears solid, and although conditions are currently somewhat unfavorable, there is reason to expect improvement in the coming month.

It's also because of so many good news like August that really put a lot on investors to buy and it resulted to a price of $80k++. But then again, since we are in the bear market, sooner or later there will be a correction.

It's that it happen again this September, could be just a coincidence as there are no pattern here except that in every 4 years we will have the bull run and we have a catalyst of the halving. Then soon after we have the bear trend in which we are currently expereincing.

[EarnOnVictor]

You know what? People often relate "what's not" to events, and, truly, on Bitcoin, it could have both a direct and psychological impact, though the effect will be small, as the main tradition/cycle overrides it.

However, my assessment on Bitcoin's Septembers from 2010 to 2025: 2010: -9.15%, 2011: -43.71%, 2012: +15.49%, 2013: -1.76%, 2014: -19.01%, 2015: +2.35%, 2016: +6.04%, 2017: -7.44%, 2018: -5.58%, 2019: -13.38%, 2020: -7.51%, 2021: -7.03%, 2022: -3.12%, 2023: +3.91%, 2024: +7.29%, 2025: +5.16%. Negative Septembers: 62.5% (10 out of 16 years) and Positive Septembers: 37.5% (6 out of 16 years)

I don't see a curse or serious psychology at play here, but normal happenings created by market dynamism. And the fact that it looks green now doesn't break any jinx, but is just another natural market flow.

[Nothingtodo]

| Year | September return |
| ---- | ---------------: |
| 2013 |           -1.76% |
| 2014 |          -19.01% |
| 2015 |           +2.35% |
| 2016 |           +6.04% |
| 2017 |           -7.44% |
| 2018 |           -5.58% |
| 2019 |          -13.38% |
| 2020 |           -7.51% |
| 2021 |           -7.03% |
| 2022 |           -3.12% |
| 2023 |           +3.91% |
| 2024 |           +7.29% |
| 2025 |           +5.16% |

Maybe we got used to seeing Bitcoin in the red zone in September, but this time in September, Bitcoin has gone above $87,000, which means that Bitcoin is in a better position this month than other months. So it is expected that Bitcoin has been in a positive return in September for the last three years and this time too, it may definitely have a positive return with the conditions of September so far and the conditions in the Bitcoin market. Then maybe we cannot call September a red September this time.

[Dizciple]

I don't see a curse or serious psychology at play here, but normal happenings created by market dynamism. And the fact that it looks green now doesn't break any jinx, but is just another natural market flow.

The market is always volatile and there's always up and down days in the market making every month to be green and red but some months has a history of being red because there's more selling than buying happening in that month and the reason for this can be anything and not necessary a curse.  The market has been showing signs of wanting to breakout and it might happen before the month ends which if the month of September was cursed, predictions like this shouldn't be possible because there would have been constant selling going on but what's happening is people buying everyday. If other September weren't this bullish then it's because of other reasons and not because it's curse. I don't think there's any month in the year that's cursed because all the months can be a good time to buy Bitcoin or take profits depending on how you're feeling that time. Right now the best thing to be doing is to be buying Bitcoin and not thinking about the month being cursed or not.

[SatsPH]

Maybe we got used to seeing Bitcoin in the red zone in September, but this time in September, Bitcoin has gone above $87,000, which means that Bitcoin is in a better position this month than other months. So it is expected that Bitcoin has been in a positive return in September for the last three years and this time too, it may definitely have a positive return with the conditions of September so far and the conditions in the Bitcoin market. Then maybe we cannot call September a red September this time.

Different timelines for now, as like August, it seems that the market this September is not out yet of surprised. And if we look at the historical logs, everything might chance now for the better.

We've seen positive returns and so we can't really compare it to it's previous run. Although we can always go back to the records, but still there is no assurance that it will be always the same. So this is a new pattern for us now.

[Leahized]

It's also because of so many good news like August that really put a lot on investors to buy and it resulted to a price of $80k++. But then again, since we are in the bear market, sooner or later there will be a correction.

These positive aspects are influencing Bitcoin changes in September, but it will not be permanent. Because the value has decreased by almost 2 thousand dollars from yesterday to today. This could flow towards following the previous record. Correction is a very important part of Bitcoin, which later initiates more bullishness. However, as much as the bull market is important for us, the bear market is equally necessary. Because the bear market provides us the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price. As a result, investors can achieve the desired outcome.

Before September arrived, I thought we might be cursed, but the situation has shown a different reality. What we never imagined, is advancing towards the realization of predictions so quickly. However, the rise and fall of Bitcoin is very natural.

[STT]

Coming up to the end of September you can see already the idea the month is cursed is overplayed.   The setup before the autumn months matters more, this year has seen enough selling that we had already descended and now were resurfacing from that negativity. 
  The buoyancy of the BTC price action is more then enough to counter any autumn blues in the pricing, I would not have bet especially on a negative Bitcoin for this month.

[Dave1]

Coming up to the end of September you can see already the idea the month is cursed is overplayed.   The setup before the autumn months matters more, this year has seen enough selling that we had already descended and now were resurfacing from that negativity. 
  The buoyancy of the BTC price action is more then enough to counter any autumn blues in the pricing, I would not have bet especially on a negative Bitcoin for this month.

I guess there are still those who look for pattern here. But it's been proven tha time and again, Bitcoin is very different in every month and every year. Maybe it could be the autumn and summer vibes, but still nobody has total control of it.

We should be thankful that at least even if we are still in the so called bearish cycle, the last two months are really huge for us. So a week to go and we will be in another green candle so it could be indication that we are going into the bullish cycle already.

[Awaklara]

Different timelines for now, as like August, it seems that the market this September is not out yet of surprised. And if we look at the historical logs, everything might chance now for the better.

We've seen positive returns and so we can't really compare it to it's previous run. Although we can always go back to the records, but still there is no assurance that it will be always the same. So this is a new pattern for us now.

The market will experience changes, which are also influenced by the volatility of Bitcoin prices and market adoption. Past patterns indeed give us an idea, but those patterns cannot always be maintained and accurate. The current market is already different from previous years. The 4-year cycle may shift, as well as our understanding of monthly patterns that need to be updated.

[SatsPH]

Different timelines for now, as like August, it seems that the market this September is not out yet of surprised. And if we look at the historical logs, everything might chance now for the better.

We've seen positive returns and so we can't really compare it to it's previous run. Although we can always go back to the records, but still there is no assurance that it will be always the same. So this is a new pattern for us now.

The market will experience changes, which are also influenced by the volatility of Bitcoin prices and market adoption. Past patterns indeed give us an idea, but those patterns cannot always be maintained and accurate. The current market is already different from previous years. The 4-year cycle may shift, as well as our understanding of monthly patterns that need to be updated.

Yes, that's what I'm trying to say, and that is a good thing though. We could look at the past pattern and maybe it will give us an idea on what to look for. But it doesn't mean that everything will be the same.

There might be some divergent on it, but if it is the same then it could be just coincidence as we all know that the market is very volatile. And that volatility could be a friend to us. As when the price goes down then we go and buy it cheap and then sell later at a higher price. Simply strategy and it works regardless of what month we have.

[Muba20]

What I find more interesting is whether this pattern itself affects trader behavior. If many traders already expect September to be bearish, some may take profit early, reduce exposure, or delay buying. If enough people do that, maybe the belief in “Red September” partly helps create the weakness we expect.

So based on the trend, do you think this September is also going to be bad for Bitcoin even after a strong August? Or is “Red September” just a historical coincidence that traders are giving too much importance to?

If we look at the average return for the month of September over the past few years from 2013-2025, the average return would be around -4%, most of the time Bitcoin’s price has decreased in September. This is not always the case, as we have already seen a rise in September 2026. That is why we should not expect a regular pattern for Bitcoin. This year is going in the opposite direction from other months. This year has been up by more than +7%. The main point is that the price of Bitcoin should not be judged by the previous price pattern. Bitcoin price can change at any time, the market condition depends on various factors, especially Institutional buying, US interest rates, Regulatory news of Bitcoin ETFs and different reasons.

[Pandorak]

Maybe we got used to seeing Bitcoin in the red zone in September, but this time in September, Bitcoin has gone above $87,000, which means that Bitcoin is in a better position this month than other months. So it is expected that Bitcoin has been in a positive return in September for the last three years and this time too, it may definitely have a positive return with the conditions of September so far and the conditions in the Bitcoin market. Then maybe we cannot call September a red September this time.

At first, i was skeptical that Bitcoin would see a significant rise, thinking that this September would remain bearish because at the start of the month, Bitcoin was still trading sideways. Although around the 3rd there was a fairly significant rally with high volatility that pushed the price up to $82k, unfortunately, no breakout occurred at that point, and the price eventually fell gradually by mid month to around $75k. However, something surprising happened, Bitcoin rose again and successfully broke out above the key level at $82k, driving the price up to $87k. So, it can be concluded that this September has been very positive.