Bitcoin - is the bear market bottom in?

[STT]

Every price remains possible because we live in a world where anything can happen so the situation can change radically.   The current trend for BTC is positive and we wont be seeing a new low in expected or probable outcome, its not on the cards or the horizon or even long term that we can tell.

   That estimate is about as good as we can hope to judge the price action going forward, there's never absolute certainty but I feel its fair to presume we are past the sequence of lows that would occur during negative declines.   If we were to register a greatly stronger dollar and substantial changes, I think it would remain possible but I dont see that being what happens next.
  We do likely have a Federal rate rise appearing this year, its complicated by some mid term elections so Im unclear how it transforms exactly but severe reversal is not my take personally.

[Audrey Simmons]

Is $58.5k we fell to early July the bottom for this bear market or do we have 1 leg lower?

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

We may also be indecisive as you are, we cannot actually tell exactly if $58K was the final bottom or if there will be more.

I feel we are not going to make the bull run from here, so there might be a further bear run again, but what i don't know is if the market is capable of going down below the previous bottom, approaching a further decline is well possible, and staying within $60K - $80K until next year where we are suspected to have a massive bull run, is very much possible as well.

[Franctoshi]

Is $58.5k we fell to early July the bottom for this bear market or do we have 1 leg lower?

We are nearly half way through September and I now feel the bottom is in as cant see how Bitcoin falls nearly $20k now to new lows from the current $77k unless something really bad happens next few weeks.

I do feel though that was can go back to the $65k range again to see a higher low and I'm actually hoping for that again to buy cheap one last time before bull run is here for next few years.

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

Though there's a concern that we didn't take out the price level @82k completely, but this rejection shows that level is a strong zone and a point of control for the bears as I said previously in other discussions thread when we haven't reached 80k, however, there's no need to panic that Bitcoin is going to $58k, because we ain't going to make a new low at this point, we only have a gap to fill at 66k, and for the price to tap in there, before a continuation to the upside. In my opinion with the impulsive movement we saw to $82k, isn't a price movement to joke with to think we're heading towards creating another low, very low chance that this will happen.

[BALIK]

I do feel though that was can go back to the $65k range again to see a higher low and I'm actually hoping for that again to buy cheap one last time before bull run is here for next few years.

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

You can never tell if Bitcoin will still fall to the lowest bottom. Don't assume Bitcoin will fall and that there will be a new bottom; don't conclude this and just lock it in your mind. The way the price is moving, Bitcoin might not dip to the price most people are speculating.

The worst thing that can happen to anyone at this time is to expect the Bitcoin price to drop as they anticipate. It is possible the market is gradually entering a bull market, and the current price of Bitcoin is cheaper, which investors need to take advantage of.

As you said, we can never know for sure if Bitcoin is gonna drop to a new bottom. The same goes the other way too. We can't be sure that the market has really entered a bull market.

It would be a bit too early to say Bitcoin isn't gonna drop anymore just because that's what you want to happen. Betting on the scenario you want and ignoring the other possibility can hurt you just as much.

Nobody really knows what the market is gonna do. So imo, it's better not to bet everything on one scenario.

[Silikiem]

After the sudden increase in bitcoin price just few months ago when bitcoin was struggling around 63k-64k price range, and  all of a sudden it increases to 80k and now the price is revolving around 77-78k for some weeks now I’ve come to fully understand that nothing is impossible as Far as bitcoin price movement is concerned. Prior before now I already knew anything can happen but I’m fully convinced now that there’s a possibility that we may have not seen the bear market bottom this year yet because bitcoin is very unpredictable and just as it’s always been said, there are so many factors which affects this price movement which we don’t even know most of them, so anything is possible before the year ends.

[SatsPH]

Is $58.5k we fell to early July the bottom for this bear market or do we have 1 leg lower?

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

Good question, if we look at history of Bitcoin, from all time high to lowest low in bear market, currently we are sitting just about 50% from it. And in the last cycle it's ~77%. So perhaps with Bitcoin becoming less volatile, we might have hit our lows already.

Although I might be wrong as the volatility might be around 60-65% so there is still a chance that we might see a deep correction before the actual halving. So at that percentage, around $44k-$50k could be the last leg.

[asriloni]

Is $58.5k we fell to early July the bottom for this bear market or do we have 1 leg lower?

We don't have another leg to go to the bottom. I feel July's bottom is the real bottom for the current bear market. However, the better to anticipate that because the announcement from FOMC may be driving the price back near to the July's bottom.

yet, we're likely staying at 70k - 80k until the release of FOMC announcement. Like what you seen from my picture is that bitcoin is gonna head 75k again.

We are nearly half way through September and I now feel the bottom is in as cant see how Bitcoin falls nearly $20k now to new lows from the current $77k unless something really bad happens next few weeks.

I do feel though that was can go back to the $65k range again to see a higher low and I'm actually hoping for that again to buy cheap one last time before bull run is here for next few years.

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

20k is obviously impossible bottom to achieve while 65k range is still relatively possible only if there will be a bad news that hammered bitcoin so hard. However, i expect the next bottom will be around 69k - 70k.

So i guess the bottom is in.

[Loyang]

Is $58.5k we fell to early July the bottom for this bear market or do we have 1 leg lower?

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

Good question, if we look at history of Bitcoin, from all time high to lowest low in bear market, currently we are sitting just about 50% from it. And in the last cycle it's ~77%. So perhaps with Bitcoin becoming less volatile, we might have hit our lows already.

Although I might be wrong as the volatility might be around 60-65% so there is still a chance that we might see a deep correction before the actual halving. So at that percentage, around $44k-$50k could be the last leg.

Yes, I agree with you. The Bitcoin market may have collapsed and after this, we may not see any more collapses in the market and we may see an upward trend in the Bitcoin market from now on. But one place seems a little doubtful to me and that is this month and the month after that. If we do not see the price of Bitcoin decrease between these two months, then maybe we will not see the possibility of a collapse that you mentioned. The market may have reached its lowest level and if from this point we see another collapse, maybe new investors and some investors may sell their Bitcoins out of fear and we may see a lot of volatility in the market and we may see a lot of Bitcoin price decrease.

[Texac]

We don't have another leg to go to the bottom. I feel July's bottom is the real bottom for the current bear market. However, the better to anticipate that because the announcement from FOMC may be driving the price back near to the July's bottom.

yet, we're likely staying at 70k - 80k until the release of FOMC announcement. Like what you seen from my picture is that bitcoin is gonna head 75k again.

I don't think the FOMC is gonna push bitcoin back near the July bottom, since the rate hike has already been expected and is pretty much priced in.
So even if it actually happen, Bitcoin might not react that strongly. In fact, I'm still pretty optimistic about the upcoming meeting.

However, I still think the bear market is not over, so i'm not gonna rule out a new bottom for Bitcoin.
We haven't even entered the final quarter of the year yet, so it's still too early to say we've hit the bottom based on the market cycle.

[arwin100]

Is $58.5k we fell to early July the bottom for this bear market or do we have 1 leg lower?

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

Good question, if we look at history of Bitcoin, from all time high to lowest low in bear market, currently we are sitting just about 50% from it. And in the last cycle it's ~77%. So perhaps with Bitcoin becoming less volatile, we might have hit our lows already.

Although I might be wrong as the volatility might be around 60-65% so there is still a chance that we might see a deep correction before the actual halving. So at that percentage, around $44k-$50k could be the last leg.

Also we don't see those fast dumps happening before and now Bitcoin continue to stays above $70k. This shows some great sign that maybe those dips on which many people feared is already done.

But looking for possible pump remains questionable, since we are still not really sure if Bitcoin can sustain it or those speculated drop price you have mentioned might going to happen.

So again lets see what's coming around in next following days. Since if Bitcoin can pass or hit $85k, maybe this might set some great momentum and we see Bitcoin having another great price pumps.

[Donneski]

Considering the period we are in the current cycle, I think it'll be too early to say that $58k is the possible bear market bottom. However, I'm of the opinion that we might likely not reach that level again. It'll take a significant hit for us to witness another $20k drop from the current level, something that'll require some serious selling pressure.

As usual, I'll keep accumulating gradually instead of waiting for the perfect price entry. If we can get to $60k - $65k price range again, that'll be nice but if not, I'll still not completely miss out from buying the dip

[Mayor of ogba]

If bitcoin can go as low as $16k in the last bear market after hitting an all time high of $69k in November 2021 bitcoin can still go below $58.5k after crossing $80k, and since we are still in the bear market there's a likelihood that bitcoin could drop to $40-45k before we start seeing an upward trend, so I don't think the $58.5k it dropped to in early July is the bottom for this year bear season. Since you target to sell your bitcoin in the next bull run why not accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy and position yourself for the next bull run rather than waiting for the price of bitcoin to drop.

[Ayers]

Considering the period we are in the current cycle, I think it'll be too early to say that $58k is the possible bear market bottom.

bear market has already lasted almost 11 month since Bitcoin hit its top and started going down. more accurately, its a bit hasty to call $58k the bottom when there aren't really any other signs besides Bitcoin suddenly pumping over the last few day.

However, I'm of the opinion that we might likely not reach that level again. It'll take a significant hit for us to witness another $20k drop from the current level, something that'll require some serious selling pressure.

as long as the bear market isn't over, that could definitely happen. remember when Bitcoin dropped from $83k to $57k back in July?

As usual, I'll keep accumulating gradually instead of waiting for the perfect price entry. If we can get to $60k - $65k price range again, that'll be nice but if not, I'll still not completely miss out from buying the dip

even if bitcoin hasn't hit the bottom yet, waiting is still a bad idea because nobody knows exactly where the bottom is or when it's gonna happen.

honestly, i'd also like to see bitcoin drop back to $60k, because that would be a good opportunity.

[danherbias07]

$60k is very far now. Bitcoin resisted going any further down, so I bet that will be the new bottom.

If you are buying, it will be difficult to find a new entry point at a lower price. The movements are not that wild yet, and it's probably going to stick in this range until next month comes. October, according to history, is wild in some years for Bitcoin. Who knows; you might see a good entry point there or not.

[Creeper0]

$60k is very far now. Bitcoin resisted going any further down, so I bet that will be the new bottom.

If you are buying, it will be difficult to find a new entry point at a lower price. The movements are not that wild yet, and it's probably going to stick in this range until next month comes. October, according to history, is wild in some years for Bitcoin. Who knows; you might see a good entry point there or not.

If Bitcoin can touch $80k in just a few hours from $60k-$65k, then a move below $60k is not impossible. There may not be any turbulence in the market right now, but to be honest, turbulence can happen at any time and they can also break our expectations.

I don't know which direction the turbulence will go, if it is bearish then it is likely to create a low. September still looks stable and maybe the whole month will be stable. Maybe we can see some change in the last week of the month.

[M47AK16]

for some weeks now I’ve come to fully understand that nothing is impossible as Far as bitcoin price movement is concerned.

In this world we are living, nothing is impossible (much especially in the Bitcoin/crypto world) as we know how volatile they are. It has something to do with their decentralized and low-supply model. Then there are also plenty of factors or events around the planet that affects their price.

I’m fully convinced now that there’s a possibility that we may have not seen the bear market bottom this year yet because bitcoin is very unpredictable and just as it’s always been said, there are so many factors which affects this price movement which we don’t even know most of them, so anything is possible before the year ends.

As long as we are not out of this bearish condition we have yet, then I think yeah that that we don't have that bottom yet. But we already identified most factors that affect Bitcoin's value. If I can give a couple of them, they can be >; political, innovation about technology, wars, change in government policy or bank, change on business or companies, and most importantly is change about the finance market e.g. assets, commodities, forex, etc..

[STT]

If bitcoin can go as low as $16k in the last bear market after hitting an all time high of $69k in November 2021 bitcoin can still go below $58.5k after crossing $80k, and since we are still in the bear market there's a likelihood that bitcoin could drop to $40-45k before we start seeing an upward trend, so I don't think the $58.5k it dropped to in early July is the bottom for this year bear season. Since you target to sell your bitcoin in the next bull run why not accumulate bitcoin with the DCA strategy and position yourself for the next bull run rather than waiting for the price of bitcoin to drop.

The reference to 2021 is probably fair because that situation does seem confusing even now with a recovery and second peak even higher before a proper decline and sell.   We can also see the 50 week average then was declining as it is now so  that would be the final piece to turning this around and giving confidence to buyers.
  I agree with the idea of DCA meanwhile because as time progresses we are  more likely to just resolve upwards not falter downwards.   To believe we sell off from here I really need to see a higher dollar which isnt happening so far.

The lows back then were also in reference to the 200 week average which we have just met and combated for some extended period of weeks before finding current strength.   The 22-23 back and forth across that long term average was 18 months, really extended extreme doubts to make that the case.  Right now we've beaten it far more easily and recovered, the only reason I would consider a sell still possible is we remain in some pivotal place and are yet to put in a higher high vs the May peak of this year; if we did fail to do so then I give more weight to the negative perspective but I dont expect it.

[tabas]

$60k is very far now. Bitcoin resisted going any further down, so I bet that will be the new bottom.

Not that far if this reddish moment continues to happen. I think that we're still not safe from that range until we move at least $80k to $90k.

If you are buying, it will be difficult to find a new entry point at a lower price. The movements are not that wild yet, and it's probably going to stick in this range until next month comes. October, according to history, is wild in some years for Bitcoin. Who knows; you might see a good entry point there or not.

This is true, it's hard to spot the bottom if someone isn't satisfied with the prices of their entry. But for this sentiment, they can simply just let the market move on its own why they DCA. There's no other better strategy than that approach as usual when they are unsure of which price they want to enter as the volatility isn't that much lately.

[Asiska02]

I do feel though that was can go back to the $65k range again to see a higher low and I'm actually hoping for that again to buy cheap one last time before bull run is here for next few years.

How are we all feeling? Is the bottom in or not?

Market doesn’t wait on hopes, it may come back one last time as you wish or it already tested that price for the last time this year and heading towards a record breaking new all time high. Opportunities in this market are limited and when they come, you have to grab them in other to feel along and get the best from the market.

The bottom is still not it to me, we may see a downtrend again, but that is still not a certainty that the market will reach your anticipated bear price to buy again. The days of the bear don’t looks to be over yet, but the market may not face such a sharp fall again without a major news trigger which I doubt may happen anytime from now.

[fullfitlarry]

Considering the period we are in the current cycle, I think it'll be too early to say that $58k is the possible bear market bottom. However, I'm of the opinion that we might likely not reach that level again. It'll take a significant hit for us to witness another $20k drop from the current level, something that'll require some serious selling pressure.

As usual, I'll keep accumulating gradually instead of waiting for the perfect price entry. If we can get to $60k - $65k price range again, that'll be nice but if not, I'll still not completely miss out from buying the dip

Everything is still up in the open, we really don't know what the future holds. And as what the saying goes, “Past performance is not indicative of future results.” So we might look at Bitcoin's history and then say, X and Y could the correction.

But still, we don't have any idea on what is going to happen. I have seen many predictions, base not just on past performance, but with technical indicators that failed. Like the S2F model if others might have remember it.