"there's no 4 years cycle" and "this time it's different", the market went pretty much by the same cycle over and over again (with ever rising numbers).
I think its there and block reward change matters but its surely a declining influence by now. Greater factors exist as to how supply and demand varies and that must be by design I think. Obviously BTC progressed alot over time, we aint in Kansas no more
BTC doesn't follow the year's months imo, the 4 year cycle would be superior to that time scale. I reckon the entirety of 2026 is required to disperse the negative outflow in the beginning of the year.
Its consolidated and turned around but I wouldn't guess on a new ATH just yet and not as an anniversary, nobody is watching that.
Saying that when BTC does ignite it'll be far more obvious in threatening that new high at least in energy, it will happen in less time then expected once that level of positive action does begin. I just don't think that's now or in sight especially.
We aint in Kansas no more? LOL! Already "this time it's different"

Businesses and traders may have become more mature. Institutional investors are here and against my expectations MSTR didn't panic sell in crypto winter.
But some say it business cycles, some say that this or that act(ed) as triggers for certain pumps or maybe dumps, but in grand generic lines, the market still looks... as usual.
You said that halving matters less and less. It's correct... on paper. Miners don't get cheaper (and the prices of chips and memories don't help), energy is a big issue (except few lucky ones who bought solar)... the difficulty goes up and then up again. So... does the haling effect decreasing? Are you sure?
I don't say that markets are nice and forgiving. Uptober chart is already red. People should play on markets carefully. But I'm confident that the overall trend upwards - started in mid-August - will resume.