$10,000 when?

[ReserviorHunt]

Run up to 10k from, say 2000, will take place over a month. Run up to 1160 from 120 took over 3-4 weeks.

[Bitcopia]

Run up to 10k from, say 2000, will take place over a month. Run up to 1160 from 120 took over 3-4 weeks.

Mega-rallies in bitcoin tend to follow a particular trend of price doubling (amongst other predictable behaviors). The first doubling has already occurred from $340 to $680 over the course of about 51 days. More on this trend can be found here in what is arguably one of this forum's most well researched and articulated threads: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg7091510;topicseen#msg7091510

Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling

I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.

The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.

I will be watching for . . .

Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)

The academic research is Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles D Sornette, JV Andersen - International Journal of Modern Physics …, 2002

A significant quote from the highly cited paper . . .
Quote
The feature that distinguishes it [the model] from ordinary bubble models is that the solutions may be at some times growing “super-exponentially,” i.e., with a growth rate growing itself with time. This is fundamentally different from previous bubble models based on exponential growth (with constant average growth rate). This suggests to qualify bubbles by testing for the existence of nonlinear super-exponential growth.

A couple posts down he lays out the time it takes for price to double to the peaks of past bubbles:

Looking at the price records for the three previous bubbles, we see . . .

June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.

April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.

After considering how that post applies to your discussion, I highly recommend starting at the beginning and reading that thread in its entirety.

[Spayse]

$10,000 in next year if 5k at the end of year.

[amitrwt]

$10,000 in next year if 5k at the end of year.

wohow slow down mate..! you get worst injuries while driving in over speed, going on normal speed helps a lot..!

[sobhi200]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

[DolanDuck]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Do you have any technical analisis of what you said or was just a prediction for fun?
The 5k value should be the peak of the next bubble according to the trendline we are following,
but I don't think that the adoption of btc in the next year will be at its maximum ever...

[Bitcopia]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

 

I remember when people, including myself, had the sentiment that it might go up to $10 but that's it. Unfortunately, it stopped me from putting more than 2% of my assets into bitcoin when they were only $5. I now have roughly 66% of my assets in bitcoin.

That was before I understood what Bitcoin is.

If you think Bitcoin can become as useful to the world as Apple, then that means a market cap of $600,000,000,000 and bitcoin valued at $40,000 USD.

(Hint, capturing just 10% of the $15,500,000,000,000 per year payments industry and the $540,000,000,000 remittance industry, as well as taking a piece of the role of store of value from gold's $7,600,000,000,000 market cap would make bitcoin far more valuable than Apple.)

[kaiy]

Maybe in 2016

[bitsmichel]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Between 2014 and 2034 there price may reach $10.000 per coin. 20 years is a long time in terms of technology.

[pinksheep]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Between 2014 and 2034 there price may reach $10.000 per coin. 20 years is a long time in terms of technology.

If ( and I highly suspect it will) it ever reaches $10,000, it'll be a VERY long time before 2034. Adoption of new technology doesn't take 20 years. Admittedly, full adoption could take longer, but the price rise anticipating that full adoption, will occur long before the actual event.

[Febo]

12.12.2014

[Zyborg]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Why 5k but not 10k?

[boumalo]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Why 5k but not 10k?

People don't understand how it works; if the price was 1$ they would say it can go to 5$ not 10

[Zyborg]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Why 5k but not 10k?

People don't understand how it works; if the price was 1$ they would say it can go to 5$ not 10

Why?!

[boumalo]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Why 5k but not 10k?

People don't understand how it works; if the price was 1$ they would say it can go to 5$ not 10

Why?!

When I read 5000$ is possible but not 10,000$ it means they don't have a system or an idea how to value all bitcoins in circulation

[Justin00]

some time unicorns crossbreed with lebrachauns.
but seriously mate, if anyone knew there physcic powers alone would be worth a shitload.

[Zyborg]

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Why 5k but not 10k?

People don't understand how it works; if the price was 1$ they would say it can go to 5$ not 10

Why?!

When I read 5000$ is possible but not 10,000$ it means they don't have a system or an idea how to value all bitcoins in circulation

Aha yeah I read your post too quickly, thought you were expressing your own opinion, haha.
My bad.

[boumalo]

some time unicorns crossbreed with lebrachauns.
but seriously mate, if anyone knew there physcic powers alone would be worth a shitload.

We can speculate, try to apply reason to articulate the most likely consequences to the conditions we are seeing

That will never ever happen. It might go up to 5k but that's it.

Why 5k but not 10k?

People don't understand how it works; if the price was 1$ they would say it can go to 5$ not 10

Why?!

When I read 5000$ is possible but not 10,000$ it means they don't have a system or an idea how to value all bitcoins in circulation

Aha yeah I read your post too quickly, thought you were expressing your own opinion, haha.
My bad.

np

[pinksheep]

I think after 10  years

You're very pessimistic, I think it will be long before that - at the latest some time next year. Just my opinion 

[CoinDiver]

Summer 2015. We may crack it before then, but only in a bubble.