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Author Topic: You guys need a reality check  (Read 8756 times)
SgtSpike
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January 04, 2012, 09:22:21 AM
 #21

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

What kind of person wastes time on forums about things they think are fundamentally useless?



Psst... also, not all commodities are consumed. Hint: think metals.
What metals are not consumed?
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January 04, 2012, 09:24:41 AM
 #22

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

What kind of person wastes time on forums about things they think are fundamentally useless?



Psst... also, not all commodities are consumed. Hint: think metals.
What metals are not consumed?

Generally speaking, precious metals. Primarily gold, now that so many "consuming" industrial uses have been found for silver.

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
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The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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January 04, 2012, 09:42:51 AM
 #23

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

What kind of person wastes time on forums about things they think are fundamentally useless?



Psst... also, not all commodities are consumed. Hint: think metals.
What metals are not consumed?

Generally speaking, precious metals. Primarily gold, now that so many "consuming" industrial uses have been found for silver.

Lots of people drink silver water and gold water and you can find it in your body as well. just saying.

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January 04, 2012, 09:43:34 AM
 #24



Lots of people drink silver water and gold water and you can find it in your body as well. just saying.

Mmmm...


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January 04, 2012, 09:51:47 AM
 #25

Mmmm...



Best part... several hours after the meal, since you don't digest it, the gold is available once again! Wink

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
...
ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
...
...
The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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January 04, 2012, 10:02:16 AM
 #26

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

2) Bitcoins are not a commodity, they are not consumed. Everyone who bought on the way up, needs to eventually sell them.

3) The market is very tiny, and is growing slowly at best.

4) 5,000-7000 new bitcoins come into existence every single day.

5) Most people sit with bitcoins on a rally, but eventually it will stall and they will start selling. This will push the price back down.

6) Obvious signs of price manipulation for the pushes. Is it someone using the push, rinse and repeat strategy playing on many of blind optimist suckers?

7) Now that the price has been potentially manipulated higher, will the manipulators keep shelling out their cash to try and hold the price high?

Cool Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them?

9) Market depth supporting the now $5.00 price is looking very weak on mt. gox.

10) Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?



My first transaction was in June last year. End of july 2011 I had est. 2.800 confirmations on this first transaction.

Now I have exst. 30.000 confirmations on this transaction.

So: a lot more people and a lot more BTC-clients are envolved now. The networks hashrate remains even in the descent more or less stable between 6.x and 9.x TH/s - compared to june/july 2011. This network capacity consumes MWatts of electrical power and we all people are paying for it, continued investments as well.

But one of the main arguments is that there is a real exchange rate above the 1:1 ratio USD/BTC. Despite huge selloffs in recent months we had still 1  BTC >/= 2 USD.

Lets assume that is the bottom line. Then this is the usage value for BTC: arround 2 $/BTC. The price for the possibility of nearly instant, trusted, verified and individually based transactions.

Speculation then creates on top value which is then creating the higher and more volatile market value. Sure, there is a lot of speculation but this is for good. It brings money and believe into the system. I just bought these days a new HD 6990, adding up my capacity to 2.5 GH/s.

Then look at the failure of the US supercommittee and look at the souvereign dept crisis in Europe. There might be events in the nearer future of the next two years that could be bring bitcoins into the position of a additional transaction alternative for ordinary people if their trust to normal banks is finally eroded or simple there are no trustworthy banks anymore or we can have a lot of inflation. This will take the usage value upwards significantly and the market value even more.

Start to think yourself about these mechanisms. Start reading ft.com.

It might be naive to be too optimistic. But who on earth had foreseen the rally of May/June/July last year? So its not justified to be too pessimistic as well. We have to decouple our expectations for a fast profit from the BTC system evolution.

And this is real: the system is there, it is evolving and developing. This will take time and we don't know how much. But if there where no market for BTC, it has been vanished last year.
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January 04, 2012, 11:34:58 AM
 #27

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

2) Bitcoins are not a commodity, they are not consumed. Everyone who bought on the way up, needs to eventually sell them.

3) The market is very tiny, and is growing slowly at best.

4) 5,000-7000 new bitcoins come into existence every single day.

5) Most people sit with bitcoins on a rally, but eventually it will stall and they will start selling. This will push the price back down.

6) Obvious signs of price manipulation for the pushes. Is it someone using the push, rinse and repeat strategy playing on many of blind optimist suckers?

7) Now that the price has been potentially manipulated higher, will the manipulators keep shelling out their cash to try and hold the price high?

Cool Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them?

9) Market depth supporting the now $5.00 price is looking very weak on mt. gox.

10) Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?



My first transaction was in June last year. End of july 2011 I had est. 2.800 confirmations on this first transaction.

Now I have exst. 30.000 confirmations on this transaction.

So: a lot more people and a lot more BTC-clients are envolved now. The networks hashrate remains even in the descent more or less stable between 6.x and 9.x TH/s - compared to june/july 2011. This network capacity consumes MWatts of electrical power and we all people are paying for it, continued investments as well.

But one of the main arguments is that there is a real exchange rate above the 1:1 ratio USD/BTC. Despite huge selloffs in recent months we had still 1  BTC >/= 2 USD.

Lets assume that is the bottom line. Then this is the usage value for BTC: arround 2 $/BTC. The price for the possibility of nearly instant, trusted, verified and individually based transactions.

Speculation then creates on top value which is then creating the higher and more volatile market value. Sure, there is a lot of speculation but this is for good. It brings money and believe into the system. I just bought these days a new HD 6990, adding up my capacity to 2.5 GH/s.

Then look at the failure of the US supercommittee and look at the souvereign dept crisis in Europe. There might be events in the nearer future of the next two years that could be bring bitcoins into the position of a additional transaction alternative for ordinary people if there trust to normal banks is finally eroded or simple there are no trustworthy banks anymore or we can have a lot of inflation. This will take the usage value upwards significantly and the market value even more.

Start to think yourself about these mechanisms. Start reading ft.com.

It might be naive to be too optimistic. But who on earth had foreseen the rally of May/June/July last year? So its not justified to be too pessimistic as well. We have to decouple our expectations for a fast profit from the BTC system evolution.

And this is real: the system is there, it is evolving and developing. This will take time and we don't know how much. But if there where no market for BTC, it has been vanished last year.


Fucking rad and I could only have said it better myself by cleaning up your english a bit.
You are SO right -- if BTC is "useless", why the fuck are we here???  Goddamn, I know I'm a nerd, but I give myself SOME credit toward doing SOME productive things...

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January 04, 2012, 11:52:14 AM
 #28

The market is a contest with money as points. So the scoreboard says the OP is wrong. I don't see how anyone can argue with that. I mean, I could say gold is a stupid useless rock. But wtf does my opinion matter when I go to the jewelry store.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
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January 04, 2012, 12:07:27 PM
 #29

The market is a contest with money as points. So the scoreboard says the OP is wrong. I don't see how anyone can argue with that. I mean, I could say gold is a stupid useless rock. But wtf does my opinion matter when I go to the jewelry store.

Opinion = Ehhh Shiney worthless rock unless



ahhh worthless posting feels so good. Resume speculation.....

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
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January 04, 2012, 12:48:01 PM
 #30



Lots of people drink silver water and gold water and you can find it in your body as well. just saying.

Mmmm...



Well that depends on what consumed means, I'm going to arbitrarily group thusly:

"Consumed"
Electronics 7%
Dentistry 2%
Other Industrial Uses 2%
Medals 1%

12%

"Hoarded"
Jewelry 67%
Implied Investment 9%
Bar Hoarding 3%
Net Producer Hedging 3%
Coins 3%

85%

So I reckon the other 3% is what they make bitcoins from, so that means the entire market will be worth 3% of 5.3million troy ounces, at todays prices around $250m so fair price is $11.90 a coin!

heh.

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January 04, 2012, 01:36:21 PM
 #31

the market doesn't agree with you, Edward
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January 04, 2012, 02:27:33 PM
 #32

the market doesn't agree with you, Edward

He didn't say it would go to minus infinity today.

There was a point in stopping the bear trolling back when the bust was on, but right now there's really no reason to go against people with either opinion. Bitcoin fundamentals are good, but the rise is faster than the market catches up, so both sides have a point.

I was in on slowing down Edward's bearishness back in the bust, but now that things have turned I don't see a reason to do so. It's good to have a variety of opinions.
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January 04, 2012, 02:58:52 PM
 #33

the market doesn't agree with you, Edward

He didn't say it would go to minus infinity today.

There was a point in stopping the bear trolling back when the bust was on, but right now there's really no reason to go against people with either opinion. Bitcoin fundamentals are good, but the rise is faster than the market catches up, so both sides have a point.

I was in on slowing down Edward's bearishness back in the bust, but now that things have turned I don't see a reason to do so. It's good to have a variety of opinions.

here's the reality check:

Edward, possibly, although highly unlikely, bought in at around $2/BTC or below
then he sold at $3.8-4 with hope to re buy again at <$2
then came realization that it's not happening anytime soon, at which point he decided to come on forums again, to spew, like he usually does, his worthless agenda on here
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January 04, 2012, 03:11:47 PM
 #34

Mmmm...



Best part... several hours after the meal, since you don't digest it, the gold is available once again! Wink


Thanks but I think I will pass on the recycled gold.      Wink
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January 04, 2012, 03:58:18 PM
 #35

here's the reality check:

Edward, possibly, although highly unlikely, bought in at around $2/BTC or below
then he sold at $3.8-4 with hope to re buy again at <$2
then came realization that it's not happening anytime soon, at which point he decided to come on forums again, to spew, like he usually does, his worthless agenda on here

Thats exactly what it looks like.
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January 04, 2012, 05:03:22 PM
 #36

I am optimistic now simply because the price held at $2.50 for so long.  Which means, it's not likely to go lower than that.

At $2.50/coin, with 7200 coins generated daily, people believe in Bitcoins enough to inject $18,000/day into the system.  That's a significant amount of money, and I don't think it's just one person, or just a few people.  Pure speculation on my part, but I don't see a system viewed as failed being propped up for this long by this much money by less than a dozen people, and more likely, it is propped up by hundreds.

Then, you look at the future.  We are now less than a year away from mining rewards being cut in half.  As we get closer to that point in time, we will have more and more assurance that the value of Bitcoin has only one way to move, assuming that same $18,000/day injection.

I think $2.50 really was the rock bottom.  There are too many people who believe in Bitcoin and want, badly, to see it succeed, for it to fail completely.  It might forever be a niche item, but that niche will always be there.  And so far, no one has come even close to overturning Bitcoins as the go-to product for the niche.

This is all just my opinion, of course.  Wink

+1  glad to see you back onboard.

so you now see the psychological impact of price alone.  its self feeding on the way down and causes all sorts of negative sentiment which break us apart.

now on the way back up, we can reunite and make Bitcoin the new alternative. Cheesy
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January 04, 2012, 05:47:45 PM
 #37

I am optimistic now simply because the price held at $2.50 for so long.  Which means, it's not likely to go lower than that.

At $2.50/coin, with 7200 coins generated daily, people believe in Bitcoins enough to inject $18,000/day into the system.  That's a significant amount of money, and I don't think it's just one person, or just a few people.  Pure speculation on my part, but I don't see a system viewed as failed being propped up for this long by this much money by less than a dozen people, and more likely, it is propped up by hundreds.

Then, you look at the future.  We are now less than a year away from mining rewards being cut in half.  As we get closer to that point in time, we will have more and more assurance that the value of Bitcoin has only one way to move, assuming that same $18,000/day injection.

I think $2.50 really was the rock bottom.  There are too many people who believe in Bitcoin and want, badly, to see it succeed, for it to fail completely.  It might forever be a niche item, but that niche will always be there.  And so far, no one has come even close to overturning Bitcoins as the go-to product for the niche.

This is all just my opinion, of course.  Wink

+1  glad to see you back onboard.

so you now see the psychological impact of price alone.  its self feeding on the way down and causes all sorts of negative sentiment which break us apart.

now on the way back up, we can reunite and make Bitcoin the new alternative. Cheesy
Haha, you've been tracking my sentiments.

I did go from optimistic, to pessimistic, and back to optimistic about the long-term future of Bitcoins.  Reason being, when I was pessimistic, it was because I believed Bitcoin would always be a niche product.  But now, I am beginning to realize that it is enough of a niche to sustain the project, pretty much indefinitely.  I don't see how Bitcoin could ever die completely.
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January 04, 2012, 05:56:27 PM
 #38

I am optimistic now simply because the price held at $2.50 for so long.  Which means, it's not likely to go lower than that.

At $2.50/coin, with 7200 coins generated daily, people believe in Bitcoins enough to inject $18,000/day into the system.  That's a significant amount of money, and I don't think it's just one person, or just a few people.  Pure speculation on my part, but I don't see a system viewed as failed being propped up for this long by this much money by less than a dozen people, and more likely, it is propped up by hundreds.

Then, you look at the future.  We are now less than a year away from mining rewards being cut in half.  As we get closer to that point in time, we will have more and more assurance that the value of Bitcoin has only one way to move, assuming that same $18,000/day injection.

I think $2.50 really was the rock bottom.  There are too many people who believe in Bitcoin and want, badly, to see it succeed, for it to fail completely.  It might forever be a niche item, but that niche will always be there.  And so far, no one has come even close to overturning Bitcoins as the go-to product for the niche.

This is all just my opinion, of course.  Wink

+1  glad to see you back onboard.

so you now see the psychological impact of price alone.  its self feeding on the way down and causes all sorts of negative sentiment which break us apart.

now on the way back up, we can reunite and make Bitcoin the new alternative. Cheesy
Haha, you've been tracking my sentiments.

I did go from optimistic, to pessimistic, and back to optimistic about the long-term future of Bitcoins.  Reason being, when I was pessimistic, it was because I believed Bitcoin would always be a niche product.  But now, I am beginning to realize that it is enough of a niche to sustain the project, pretty much indefinitely.  I don't see how Bitcoin could ever die completely.

i do indeed track you.  ever since i told you about ascending triangles back in the Spring.  remember that?

but more so i track you b/c you're an important part of the community and i think you do good work from the coding side, Firstbits being one example alone. 

as bullish as i've been, it was discouraging to see many ppl like you go to the dark side.  i could see the negative sentiment permeating the forum.  but i kept the faith and now all of us who have supported the project from the beginning are now getting some redemption.

welcome back!
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January 04, 2012, 06:12:32 PM
 #39

I remember those ascending triangles, yes...  Tongue
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January 04, 2012, 08:13:24 PM
 #40

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

If this were remotely true, then bitcoin would rise to the moon again.  Considering that the reality is much more muted than it was in the spring, I doubt that there is much blind optimism.

Quote

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were


I've personally bought dozens of items online.  The system has a steeper learning curve than using credit cards, but it's easier once you know how.  If it were useless, I would have sold out last year.

Quote

2) Bitcoins are not a commodity, they are not consumed. Everyone who bought on the way up, needs to eventually sell them.


Gold isn't consumed either, and your statement that everyone who bought on the way up needs to eventually sell them is just as true with regard to gold.  Gold is still a commodity.  Consumption isn't a necessary requirement.

Quote

3) The market is very tiny, and is growing slowly at best.


The market is very tiny, and growing at an estimatable rate of at least 50% APR.  That's not slow by any metric, even though it would still take decades at that rate to match a moderately sized western economy, and that rate is almost certainly not sustainable.

Quote
4) 5,000-7000 new bitcoins come into existence every single day.


More specificly, 7200 bitcoins come into existence every single day.  It's is because of that precision of increases in the monetary base and the knowledge that the market continues to absorb those new bitcoins without a drop in value is how the growth rate of the economy can be estimated.

Quote
5) Most people sit with bitcoins on a rally, but eventually it will stall and they will start selling. This will push the price back down.

Which is just as true with just about anything else, only much less so due to bitcoin's very small economy.  As the economy grows larger, those bubbles will become less and less dramatic.

Quote
6) Obvious signs of price manipulation for the pushes. Is it someone using the push, rinse and repeat strategy playing on many of blind optimist suckers?

Probably, but are you a sucker?

Quote

7) Now that the price has been potentially manipulated higher, will the manipulators keep shelling out their cash to try and hold the price high?


Is that your problem? Or theirs'?

Quote
Cool Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them?

Couldn't speculate upon that, but whether they are suckers or not, they keep coming.  So by definition, the bitcoin economy grows.

Quote

9) Market depth supporting the now $5.00 price is looking very weak on mt. gox.


It always does.  The market depth on mtgox doesn't reflect a significant portion of the market, since there is much more in the 'dark pools' and who use bots to trade without showing up on the data charts.  Don't put too much faith in that.

Quote
10) Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?


Obviously, someone is that stupid.  Or that smart, depending on the outcomes.  Time will tell.






"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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