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Author Topic: You guys need a reality check  (Read 8760 times)
Edward50
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January 03, 2012, 06:58:19 PM
 #1

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

2) Bitcoins are not a commodity, they are not consumed. Everyone who bought on the way up, needs to eventually sell them.

3) The market is very tiny, and is growing slowly at best.

4) 5,000-7000 new bitcoins come into existence every single day.

5) Most people sit with bitcoins on a rally, but eventually it will stall and they will start selling. This will push the price back down.

6) Obvious signs of price manipulation for the pushes. Is it someone using the push, rinse and repeat strategy playing on many of blind optimist suckers?

7) Now that the price has been potentially manipulated higher, will the manipulators keep shelling out their cash to try and hold the price high?

Cool Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them?

9) Market depth supporting the now $5.00 price is looking very weak on mt. gox.

10) Last but not least, who the hell is stupid enough to pay $5.00 now for a bitcoin?









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jwzguy
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January 03, 2012, 07:00:28 PM
 #2

You need a life.

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January 03, 2012, 07:07:27 PM
 #3

I agree with OP.

There's some good media hype and some interesting new projects/developments lately, but have you seen the spread shift on Gox Live?

Notice the slope of the asks on Gox Live versus the slope of the bids which is largely comprised of huge bid walls.  There are like 5 people truly supporting the price right now while the rest of the "bulls" follow in their footsteps.  Bullishness seems down quite a bit from the New Years rally.  We have a market of pseudo-bulls.

Prices may cross over $5 again and up toward $6, but it's speculation speculation speculation.  

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January 03, 2012, 07:07:51 PM
 #4

I remember in like 1992 I was 12 or 13 years old, my mom was taking some "computer applications" evening class at a community college, and I went with her sometimes.  It was really fun for me because the student worker lab guy had all the comps in the lab networked together, and had a hidden directory where Wolfenstein was installed on each one.  So he'd deathmatch with me when he had free time (which was about 100% of the time I was there).
He told me really neat stories... one in particular stood out all these years:  I saw him sending an email, wondered what it was, so he told me of this thing called the Internet, where people could talk with each other all over the planet, anytime, free(ish), any distance.  I asked him why all my friends that have computers didn't know about the Internet, and he replied "well dude they're probably not as geeky as I am".  I asked him if he thought they would ever be and he said, "I have no way of knowing, but I can say only this:  They are faced with a choice between protecting false dignity now, and reaping wild success later".

Those words impacted me like few others.

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sgbett
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January 03, 2012, 07:20:55 PM
 #5

I just bought some. So I could buy something with them. Useless eh? pfft.

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January 03, 2012, 07:21:25 PM
 #6



Cool Anybody who wants bit coins already owns a substantial number of these useless coins. Will they keep buying more to help maintain a high price? Who are the new suckers coming into the market now and buying them?

New hype means new users. Just picture 1 million people in the would buying only 1 Bitcoin each.


I saw him sending an email, wondered what it was, so he told me of this thing called the Internet, where people could talk with each other all over the planet, anytime, free(ish), any distance.  I asked him why all my friends that have computers didn't know about the Internet, and he replied "well dude they're probably not as geeky as I am".  I asked him if he thought they would ever be and he said, "I have no way of knowing, but I can say only this:  They are faced with a choice between protecting false dignity now, and reaping wild success later".

Those words impacted me like few others.

Exactly my sig.


"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
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January 03, 2012, 07:22:50 PM
 #7

This is the same information that has been detailed by many others yet the price has gone up. The price also went up in the spring when the same information applied as much, and if not more. Who the hell was stupid to buy at $10, at $20, at $25? Who? A whole lot of people.

We are clearly in a correction now, it is not doomsday yet.
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January 03, 2012, 07:23:17 PM
 #8

When bitcoin hit $0.5 for the first time I guess there was a topic just like that, adjusted by a factor of 10. Now nobody beileves bitcoins at 0.2 are reality anymore, just because the financial power of the group of people investing into BTC has grown.

Will it stay the same tomorrow? Grow tenfold? Noone knows for sure, but right now the userbase is still pretty small (I'd say at ~1000 active investors) and I see it definitely growing to 10-20 thousand people actively trading at mtgox this year.

i am satoshi
GeniuSxBoY
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January 03, 2012, 08:33:59 PM
 #9

Op spotted a downtrend.


Crypt_Current
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January 03, 2012, 08:35:32 PM
 #10

Op spotted a downtrend.




+1 and thankfully I did too, recouped some losses from a quick short position

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NamelessOne
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January 03, 2012, 08:36:37 PM
 #11

Op spotted a downtrend.




The downtrend was already happening and was an expected correction anyway. There had been a huge sell off already when this was posted. =)
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January 03, 2012, 08:38:45 PM
 #12

Some blind optimism.

http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/12/10-most-anticipated-bitcoin-projects.html

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GeniuSxBoY
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January 03, 2012, 08:41:47 PM
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I was sleeping, literally.


I only earned 4 btc from this downtrend. Looking forward to wednesday and thursday
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January 03, 2012, 09:02:23 PM
 #14

Okay Mommy! I won't let the bad BitCoin men take advantage of me.  Roll Eyes

Aren't we all adults here (well mostly)?  I don't think we need to be babysat!

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January 03, 2012, 09:48:25 PM
 #15

omg! he's right! bitcoins are stupid, stupid bitcoins  Angry
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Edward50 send me your coins all send you something useful..

would you like:
cigarettes?
or maybe ... a butt plug?   Wink

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January 03, 2012, 10:22:19 PM
 #16

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were


A few days ago I got paid a few thousand dollars by someone overseas. Happened instantly, with no fee, no delay, and at 11pm in the evening.

Bitcoin is a useless as the automobile.
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January 04, 2012, 08:17:25 AM
 #17

except that Bitcoins cannot be created at will while USD....... are being created with ever increasing speed.

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Matthew N. Wright
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January 04, 2012, 08:28:12 AM
 #18

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were


A few days ago I got paid a few thousand dollars by someone overseas. Happened instantly, with no fee, no delay, and at 11pm in the evening.

Bitcoin is a useless as the automobile.
To clarify your example, you'd need to mention that the automobile is electric and you live in the country.

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January 04, 2012, 09:03:03 AM
 #19

I am optimistic now simply because the price held at $2.50 for so long.  Which means, it's not likely to go lower than that.

At $2.50/coin, with 7200 coins generated daily, people believe in Bitcoins enough to inject $18,000/day into the system.  That's a significant amount of money, and I don't think it's just one person, or just a few people.  Pure speculation on my part, but I don't see a system viewed as failed being propped up for this long by this much money by less than a dozen people, and more likely, it is propped up by hundreds.

Then, you look at the future.  We are now less than a year away from mining rewards being cut in half.  As we get closer to that point in time, we will have more and more assurance that the value of Bitcoin has only one way to move, assuming that same $18,000/day injection.

I think $2.50 really was the rock bottom.  There are too many people who believe in Bitcoin and want, badly, to see it succeed, for it to fail completely.  It might forever be a niche item, but that niche will always be there.  And so far, no one has come even close to overturning Bitcoins as the go-to product for the niche.

This is all just my opinion, of course.  Wink
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January 04, 2012, 09:11:20 AM
 #20

I see too much blind optimism. Everyone thinks bitcoins will rise to the moon again.

Remember some points.

1) Bitcoins are as useless now as they ever were

What kind of person wastes time on forums about things they think are fundamentally useless?



Psst... also, not all commodities are consumed. Hint: think metals.

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
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In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
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