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Question: Bitcoins generated to date x price = $1,000,000,000  (Voting closed: February 01, 2012, 01:08:25 PM)
before the end of 2012 - 40 (24.1%)
before the end of 2013 - 41 (24.7%)
before the end of 2017 - 45 (27.1%)
before the end of 2021 - 12 (7.2%)
before the end of 2033 - 2 (1.2%)
after the end of 2033 - 3 (1.8%)
never - 23 (13.9%)
Total Voters: 165

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Author Topic: Poll :: When will Bitcoin reach $1 Billion total value  (Read 12275 times)
Keefe
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January 04, 2012, 09:25:49 PM
 #21

Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.

$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period.

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January 04, 2012, 09:33:09 PM
 #22

Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.

$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period.

This^

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January 05, 2012, 03:55:39 AM
 #23

A perfect market for InTrade.

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January 05, 2012, 05:28:07 AM
 #24

..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.

-> price of ~ $47 will give you a total bitcoin economy worth 1000.000.000 USD.

-> before the end of 2013
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January 05, 2012, 06:03:43 AM
 #25

$1B: 2012-10-02
1g Au: 2012-05-13

They're there, in their room.
Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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January 05, 2012, 07:12:15 AM
 #26

..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million)

^ This..

-> before the end of 2013

IMO, the reward reduction time point is THE pivotal moment for Bitcoin.
Even though I have reviewed the source code, the actual physical occurrence will still surprise me and be a huge shock to the non-literate. 

"Wait? What? You mean an algorithm actually runs this thing and not some over paid bureaucratic?  I got to gets me some of those!!"

If there is no technical breach before this date, then Bitcoin will go absolutely ballistic in the months before and after this point.



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January 05, 2012, 07:27:50 AM
 #27

If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed.
How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?

I chose $1 B as a minimum critical mass otherwise we'll be looking at a niche curiosity but one that may well still have it's uses & longetitity

I had no problem with the choice of 1B as a landmark ( on the way up i hope)
My remark had to do with the people that predict that in will never get there.

I guess at 1B it is possible for bitcoin to sustain itself as a niche curiosity as you call it but if that
niche leans towards the "evil " side or just to pay Server costs that hosts pools that miners are using...
then it wont last in my opinion.

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January 05, 2012, 07:36:36 AM
 #28

Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.

$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period.

Yes ,you are right,  it was a bit like comparing apples to oranges.
The example was just to get some proportions of the size of the markets that are possible for bitcoin.

If bitcoin were -for example- to replace paypal there would be no way to have 100B of commerce over a period
of 1 year with "only" a total value of  1B ( unless 1/3 of all bitcoins were spent EVERYDAY)



"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
Martin Armstrong
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January 05, 2012, 07:38:33 AM
 #29

..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.

FALSE

$1B: 4th July 2012
1g Au: 10th August 2012

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January 05, 2012, 12:18:35 PM
 #30

..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.

FALSE

$1B: 4th July 2012
1g Au: 10th August 2012

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January 05, 2012, 01:08:47 PM
 #31

If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed.
How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?

I'm always doing commerce with less than a billion.
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January 05, 2012, 01:41:30 PM
 #32

2013.01.01 - $1B
2012.12.21 - 1g Au

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January 05, 2012, 05:27:39 PM
 #33

1b: May 8th, 2013
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January 05, 2012, 05:57:59 PM
 #34

USD$1B: 2012-05-01
1BTC=1gAu: 2012-04-01

This is like Yabusame with a moving target. Gold's price will fluctuate and the number of Bitcoins will continue to rise, not to mention the potential for exogenous shocks.

Yes ,you are right,  it was a bit like comparing apples to oranges.
The example was just to get some proportions of the size of the markets that are possible for bitcoin.

If bitcoin were -for example- to replace paypal there would be no way to have 100B of commerce over a period
of 1 year with "only" a total value of  1B ( unless 1/3 of all bitcoins were spent EVERYDAY)

Bitcoin Days Destroyed is a measure of transaction volume, analogous to velocity. Being calculated per block, it shows that about 1/3rd of all Bitcoins are exchanged at a given time (unless my interpretation is mistaken). This has been holding steady since the bubble high in June, so it is easily within the realm of possibility that a great deal of nominal value has changed hands.

PayPal is not used as a currency trading platform; behind the scenes may be different. I think Bitcoin might be seeing high unit turnover because of algorithmic trading on exchanges in combination with new inflows. Some back-of-envelope calculations (i.e. inaccurate and probably flawed):

Assume a $10mm economy size with 1/3rd of Bitcoins exchanging hands (everything including exchanges, API trading and private transactions) every block:
10,000,000 x 0.33 = 3,300,000/block

Amount per hour:
3,300,000 x 6 = 19,800,000/hr

Amount per day:
19,800,000 x 24 = 475,200,000/day

Amount per year:
475,200,000 x 365 = 173,448,000,000/yr

So over $173 billion per year transacted with an economy at a static size of $10mm; a very active economy, much like existing forex markets. Even if the transaction volume ratio is actually 1%, that still puts the annual exchanged amount at over $5 billion, using the same assumptions as above. I would expect the ratio to decline somewhat as the economy increases in size, but being $50mm now, a drop to 10% would still be greater than in the example ($5mm vs. $3.3mm) for a total of $262.8 billion transacted per year.
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January 05, 2012, 08:08:10 PM
 #35

To put things into perspective, a table of values (with 21 million BTC).

economy size
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
$1,000,000
$10,000,000
$100,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$1,000,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000,000
value of 1 BTC
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.05
$0.48
4.76
$47.62
476.19
4,761.90
47,619.05
476,190.48
4,761,904.76

the global money supply is estimated at some USD 70 trillion. Let's assume 60 trillion for the sake of argument. This money changes hands daily to support the world economy.

1.
6 billion people in the world. Average of USD 10,000 for each person in the world. Compared with the maximum of BTC = average of 0,0035 BTC for each person in the word  Shocked

2.
If only 0.001% of all trade in the world would be done via BTC, that would replace the function of USD 600,000,000 of currency (approx USD28/BTC). Imagine if that portion would be 1%.

3.
Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).

4.
There is a high probability that the spreading of BTC will follow the classic rules of adoption of new ideas (provided it overcomes the current technical hurdles). On average, if 13% uses BTC, the rest will follow without a doubt.

Background:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110725190044.htm (we just need to believe in BTC's success hard enough)

5.
Hence, it's always hoarding time....  Grin


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January 05, 2012, 08:32:31 PM
 #36


1.
6 billion people in the world. Average of USD 10,000 for each person in the world. Compared with the maximum of BTC = average of 0,0035 BTC for each person in the word  Shocked


Slightly off-topic, but $10000 per EACH person on Earth simply illustrates, how much of money must be in hands of very small group of people. Not saying if it's bad or good ...

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January 05, 2012, 08:46:44 PM
 #37


3.
Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).

You may want to rethink that.



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January 05, 2012, 08:54:45 PM
 #38


3.
Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).

You may want to rethink that.

Put forward differently:
1. 60 trillion USD of money to make the world economy function
2. replace global money supply with 21 mio BTC
3. same world economy but with BTC = $2.8mio/BTC

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January 05, 2012, 09:01:10 PM
 #39

This discussion reminds me of the old story, when the scientists from the beginning of 20th century speculated how much place will have London to occupy in recent "future", when everyone would want to have its own horse and hackney and there will be need for plenty of barns and oat fields. Not counting the disposal of horseshit.

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January 05, 2012, 09:01:22 PM
 #40

will never happen...
if the USD gets worthless, they will make another currency, one who is controllable, not like Bitcoin...
but IMO many ppl will invest in BTC for hoarding, like gold, and slowly the BTCEconomy will start growing ;-)

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