Otoh (OP)
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January 04, 2012, 01:08:25 PM Last edit: April 04, 2013, 12:35:39 AM by Otoh |
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With a max of 21 million Bitcoins having been released in 2033 then for a $1 B ($1,000,000,000) valuation we get a price of $47.62 per Btc, or atm with over 8 million Btc in the wild we would need a price of approx $125 per Btc, so the question is on what date will Bitcoin become a $1 B entity - closest date wins a 5 Btc prize ~ coins held here: 1BiLLioNPlease express date as YYYY MM DD or as 29th Feb 2012 say, thread will be locked on the 31st Jan 2012 - please don't edit your dates except for typos/clarity, my rules & common sense, i.e. if someone puts the same date as one already chosen the first person wins it & ambiguous dates will be void, 1 entry per pre-existing forum ID Plus a second competition with the same rules & also for a 5 Btc prize for when the value of a single Bitcoin will equal 1 gram of gold, as shown here in $s, i.e. atm $51.25 ~ coins held here: 1GramAu1http://goldprice.org/gold-price-per-kilo.htmlIf 1 person wins both then I shall double their prize to 20 Btc total ~ the extra coins held here: 1x2winsFor those who say never, then please state that & your date shall then be for when a fatal blow hits Bitcoin or failing that if the price falls below $0.10 (prize as above & only payable in zombie Btc) Edit to add a copy of the summary post: #88Here's the final summary of the dates chosen, voting & prize entries are now closed, with the time frame of the 4 years up to the end of 2017 being the most popular years for issued Bitcoins to reach $1 B in the poll votes, but 2012 taking it in the date choice & the same for 1 BTC to gain parity with 1 gm Au. Here also a rounded up table of the approx BTC price for achieving $1 B in the years of them being mined & the $ value of each 5 BTC prize offered - though I chose dates for 2015 myself the sooner I get to give those prizes away the happier I'll be Year 1BTC 5BTC 5BTC 20BTC (the doubled prize for winning both dates) 2012 $110 $550 $550 $2,2002013 $95 $475 $475 $1,900 <--- WTG BTC & Scott J ~ March 2013 for the double prize! 2014 $80 $400 $400 $1,600 2015 $75 $375 $375 $1,500 2016 $65 $325 $325 $1,300 2018 $60 $300 $300 $1,200 2020 $55 $275 $275 $1,100 2023 $50 $250 $250 $1,000 2033 $48 $238 $238 $952 Final Summary $1B2012 05 01 miscreanity 2012 05 10 lord bookington 2012 05 16 cloon 2012 06 01 finway 2012 06 27 Goat 2012 07 04 kjlimo 2012 07 07 foggyb 2012 10 02 niko 2012 10 30 sadpandatech 2012 11 04 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins 2012 12 07 notme
2013 01 01 farfiman 2013 01 07 chsados 2013 02 13 Mageant2013 03 23 Scott J <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent 2013 05 05 BTCurious 2013 05 08 kilmyos 2013 05 22 Clark 2013 07 14 Koekiemonster 2013 09 07 sgbett 2013 09 12 istar 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 04 indeededausername 2014 06 23 Kluge 2015 04 01 Revalin 2015 04 02 Otoh 2016 07 08 proudhon 2017 09 11 Wekkel 2017 12 12 trogdorjw73 Never - Hawkix1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 07 foggyb 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 07 notme 2012 12 21 Mageant
2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 01 07 chsados2013 03 23 Scott J <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2015 05 05 Otoh 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 Never - westkybitcoinsPrizes: 1BiLLioN Sent: Tx1GramAu1 Sent: Tx1x2wins Sent: Tx
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"The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the
core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime." -- Satoshi
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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Revalin
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January 04, 2012, 01:15:16 PM Last edit: January 04, 2012, 01:32:45 PM by Revalin |
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2015.04.01 - Market Cap == $1B 2014.04.01 - 1 BTC == 1g Au
I'm bearish and unconvinced that we WILL see $1B. However, if Bitcoin hangs on through this year and we start seeing serious commerce, it could easily grow that far in a few years.
Edit: added gold.
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War is God's way of teaching Americans geography. --Ambrose Bierce Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics. --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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istar
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January 04, 2012, 01:37:08 PM |
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Not this year things take longer than expected. Unless in a bubble.
But we might get close in the next newyears bubble 2012-12-30.
50/50 in the autumn of next year. Exact date 2013-09-12
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Bitcoins - Because we should not pay to use our money
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BTCurious
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January 04, 2012, 01:52:52 PM |
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1G$: 2013-5-5 1g Au: 2014-5-5
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ineededausername
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January 04, 2012, 02:14:48 PM |
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$1B: 4th Jan 2014 1g Au: 3rd May 2014
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(BFL)^2 < 0
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sadpandatech
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January 04, 2012, 03:50:43 PM |
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$B - 30th Oct. 2012 $s - 3rd Aug. 2012 g= ~$62
If the Euro stays proped up, silver and gold low then it will be Jan/Feb 2013 for $B
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If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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Qoheleth
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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
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January 04, 2012, 04:22:01 PM |
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Just to be absolutely 100% sure: we're talking UTC dates, right?
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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P4man
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January 04, 2012, 04:24:52 PM |
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You do realize you are offering around $2500 worth of prize money?
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ineededausername
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January 04, 2012, 04:29:09 PM |
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You do realize you are offering around $2500 worth of prize money? Of course he does
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(BFL)^2 < 0
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Hawkix
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January 04, 2012, 04:32:11 PM |
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I am rather pesimistic. Other people (government, corporations, top rich people) simply will not that ALLOW to happen. Even if the Bitcoin will tend to become very popular, there will be high tension to switch the fortune from current BTC holders to the others I named in previous sentence. Do you all think they will let you become rich? No way.
There will be tension to restart the chain. They will start mine its own. I would say, if the current Bitcoin will be successfull in this year, we may expect soon so called "Blockchain Wars". Of course, some will continue to use current blockchain, but its always the majority (even in the Bitcoin world), who rules.
Just my two BitCents, maybe worth a few dollars later.
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sgbett
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January 04, 2012, 04:38:10 PM |
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$1BN: 7th September 2013 Gold: 7th September 2016 My winnings go here: 1G4PGAL4i7cZSrUbm42AkScPLpSx84hV8c
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"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
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Otoh (OP)
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January 04, 2012, 05:19:45 PM Last edit: January 04, 2012, 06:51:19 PM by Otoh |
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yep, UTC dates & if 2012 then it's up to $2500 in prizes np - the 20 Btc have been pre-bought (in Nov 2011) I'll send them to my sig later for safe keeping (once I've checked that I've got the private key to that safe still) highest market cap so far the June 2011 irrational exuberance to about $33 for approx 7 million bits to give roughly $230,000,000
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trogdorjw73
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January 04, 2012, 05:31:09 PM |
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My spidey sense tells me never, but what the heck:
$1B: 12th December, 2017 1g Au: 27th June, 2018
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proudhon
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January 04, 2012, 05:37:28 PM |
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I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:
$1B: 2016 - 07 - 08 1g Au: 2013 - 04 - 13
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Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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Wekkel
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yes
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January 04, 2012, 06:15:40 PM |
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$1B 11 september 2017 Gold 4 march 2014
$0.10 never again
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Koekiemonster
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Bitbuy.nl!
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January 04, 2012, 06:25:47 PM |
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Gold 3rd january 2013 $1B 14th july 2013
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cypherdoc
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January 04, 2012, 06:29:00 PM |
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get ready for the next spike up...
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farfiman
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January 04, 2012, 07:44:54 PM |
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My spidey sense tells me never, but what the heck:
If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed. How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only? Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe. I say : 1Billion $ = 1st of January 2013 Gold= 1st of January 2014
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"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians." Martin Armstrong
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Scott J
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January 04, 2012, 07:50:41 PM |
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$1 Billion = 23rd March 2013 Gold= 23rd March 2013
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Otoh (OP)
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January 04, 2012, 07:59:28 PM Last edit: January 04, 2012, 09:30:55 PM by Otoh |
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If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed. How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?
I chose $1 B as a minimum critical mass otherwise we'll be looking at a niche curiosity but one that may well still have it's uses & longetitity
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Keefe
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January 04, 2012, 09:25:49 PM |
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Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.
$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period.
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Otoh (OP)
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January 04, 2012, 09:33:09 PM |
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Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.
$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period. This^
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byronbb
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HODL OR DIE
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January 05, 2012, 03:55:39 AM |
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A perfect market for InTrade.
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gewure
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[#][#][#]
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January 05, 2012, 05:28:07 AM |
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..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.
-> price of ~ $47 will give you a total bitcoin economy worth 1000.000.000 USD.
-> before the end of 2013
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niko
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January 05, 2012, 06:03:43 AM |
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$1B: 2012-10-02 1g Au: 2012-05-13
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They're there, in their room. Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
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David M
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January 05, 2012, 07:12:15 AM |
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..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million)
^ This.. -> before the end of 2013
IMO, the reward reduction time point is THE pivotal moment for Bitcoin. Even though I have reviewed the source code, the actual physical occurrence will still surprise me and be a huge shock to the non-literate. "Wait? What? You mean an algorithm actually runs this thing and not some over paid bureaucratic? I got to gets me some of those!!" If there is no technical breach before this date, then Bitcoin will go absolutely ballistic in the months before and after this point.
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farfiman
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January 05, 2012, 07:27:50 AM |
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If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed. How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only?
I chose $1 B as a minimum critical mass otherwise we'll be looking at a niche curiosity but one that may well still have it's uses & longetitity I had no problem with the choice of 1B as a landmark ( on the way up i hope) My remark had to do with the people that predict that in will never get there. I guess at 1B it is possible for bitcoin to sustain itself as a niche curiosity as you call it but if that niche leans towards the "evil " side or just to pay Server costs that hosts pools that miners are using... then it wont last in my opinion.
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"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians." Martin Armstrong
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farfiman
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January 05, 2012, 07:36:36 AM |
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Just Paypal commerce is around 100 Billion and the majority of that is just in the US and Europe.
$100B transferred by PayPal in one year? What's special about a year? You can't compare total value of bitcoins to an amount of money flow in PayPal over an arbitrarily chosen time period. Yes ,you are right, it was a bit like comparing apples to oranges. The example was just to get some proportions of the size of the markets that are possible for bitcoin. If bitcoin were -for example- to replace paypal there would be no way to have 100B of commerce over a period of 1 year with "only" a total value of 1B ( unless 1/3 of all bitcoins were spent EVERYDAY)
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"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians." Martin Armstrong
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kjlimo
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January 05, 2012, 07:38:33 AM |
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..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.
FALSE $1B: 4th July 2012 1g Au: 10th August 2012
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Hawkix
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January 05, 2012, 12:18:35 PM |
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..i would suggest that you count ALL POSSIBLE bitcoins (21 million) into your calculation, since everybody knows that there are 21 million and thus this is reflected in the actual price.
FALSE $1B: 4th July 2012 1g Au: 10th August 2012 Wish you were right . Can we bet so I could have insurance Bitcoins I own?
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alan2here
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January 05, 2012, 01:08:47 PM |
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If it doesnt go above 1 billion then it would have failed and collapsed. How much commerce in the whole world can be done with 1 Billion worth only? I'm always doing commerce with less than a billion.
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Mageant
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January 05, 2012, 01:41:30 PM |
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2013.01.01 - $1B 2012.12.21 - 1g Au
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cjgames.com
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Kilmyos
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January 05, 2012, 05:27:39 PM |
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1b: May 8th, 2013
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miscreanity
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January 05, 2012, 05:57:59 PM |
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USD$1B: 2012-05-01 1BTC=1gAu: 2012-04-01 This is like Yabusame with a moving target. Gold's price will fluctuate and the number of Bitcoins will continue to rise, not to mention the potential for exogenous shocks. Yes ,you are right, it was a bit like comparing apples to oranges. The example was just to get some proportions of the size of the markets that are possible for bitcoin.
If bitcoin were -for example- to replace paypal there would be no way to have 100B of commerce over a period of 1 year with "only" a total value of 1B ( unless 1/3 of all bitcoins were spent EVERYDAY)
Bitcoin Days Destroyed is a measure of transaction volume, analogous to velocity. Being calculated per block, it shows that about 1/3rd of all Bitcoins are exchanged at a given time (unless my interpretation is mistaken). This has been holding steady since the bubble high in June, so it is easily within the realm of possibility that a great deal of nominal value has changed hands. PayPal is not used as a currency trading platform; behind the scenes may be different. I think Bitcoin might be seeing high unit turnover because of algorithmic trading on exchanges in combination with new inflows. Some back-of-envelope calculations (i.e. inaccurate and probably flawed): Assume a $10mm economy size with 1/3rd of Bitcoins exchanging hands (everything including exchanges, API trading and private transactions) every block: 10,000,000 x 0.33 = 3,300,000/block Amount per hour: 3,300,000 x 6 = 19,800,000/hr Amount per day: 19,800,000 x 24 = 475,200,000/day Amount per year: 475,200,000 x 365 = 173,448,000,000/yr So over $173 billion per year transacted with an economy at a static size of $10mm; a very active economy, much like existing forex markets. Even if the transaction volume ratio is actually 1%, that still puts the annual exchanged amount at over $5 billion, using the same assumptions as above. I would expect the ratio to decline somewhat as the economy increases in size, but being $50mm now, a drop to 10% would still be greater than in the example ($5mm vs. $3.3mm) for a total of $262.8 billion transacted per year.
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Wekkel
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yes
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January 05, 2012, 08:08:10 PM Last edit: January 05, 2012, 08:25:01 PM by Wekkel |
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To put things into perspective, a table of values (with 21 million BTC). economy size$1 | $10 | $100 | $1,000 | $10,000 | $100,000 | $1,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $100,000,000 | $1,000,000,000 | $10,000,000,000 | $100,000,000,000 | $1,000,000,000,000 | $10,000,000,000,000 | $100,000,000,000,000 |
| value of 1 BTC$0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.05 | $0.48 | 4.76 | $47.62 | 476.19 | 4,761.90 | 47,619.05 | 476,190.48 | 4,761,904.76 |
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the global money supply is estimated at some USD 70 trillion. Let's assume 60 trillion for the sake of argument. This money changes hands daily to support the world economy. 1. 6 billion people in the world. Average of USD 10,000 for each person in the world. Compared with the maximum of BTC = average of 0,0035 BTC for each person in the word 2. If only 0.001% of all trade in the world would be done via BTC, that would replace the function of USD 600,000,000 of currency (approx USD28/BTC). Imagine if that portion would be 1%. 3. Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC). 4. There is a high probability that the spreading of BTC will follow the classic rules of adoption of new ideas (provided it overcomes the current technical hurdles). On average, if 13% uses BTC, the rest will follow without a doubt. Background: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovationshttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110725190044.htm (we just need to believe in BTC's success hard enough) 5. Hence, it's always hoarding time....
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Hawkix
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January 05, 2012, 08:32:31 PM |
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1. 6 billion people in the world. Average of USD 10,000 for each person in the world. Compared with the maximum of BTC = average of 0,0035 BTC for each person in the word Slightly off-topic, but $10000 per EACH person on Earth simply illustrates, how much of money must be in hands of very small group of people. Not saying if it's bad or good ...
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P4man
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January 05, 2012, 08:46:44 PM |
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3. Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).
You may want to rethink that.
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Wekkel
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yes
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January 05, 2012, 08:54:45 PM |
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3. Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).
You may want to rethink that. Put forward differently: 1. 60 trillion USD of money to make the world economy function 2. replace global money supply with 21 mio BTC 3. same world economy but with BTC = $2.8mio/BTC
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Hawkix
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January 05, 2012, 09:01:10 PM |
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This discussion reminds me of the old story, when the scientists from the beginning of 20th century speculated how much place will have London to occupy in recent "future", when everyone would want to have its own horse and hackney and there will be need for plenty of barns and oat fields. Not counting the disposal of horseshit.
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cloon
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January 05, 2012, 09:01:22 PM |
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will never happen... if the USD gets worthless, they will make another currency, one who is controllable, not like Bitcoin... but IMO many ppl will invest in BTC for hoarding, like gold, and slowly the BTCEconomy will start growing ;-)
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donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
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cloon
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January 05, 2012, 09:06:53 PM |
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My bets: 1B USD: 16 may 2012 Gold: 12 jun 2012
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donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
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Litt
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January 05, 2012, 09:12:27 PM |
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will never happen... if the USD gets worthless, they will make another currency, one who is controllable, not like Bitcoin... but IMO many ppl will invest in BTC for hoarding, like gold, and slowly the BTCEconomy will start growing ;-)
Just how long do you think people will take to learn all paper money goes to shitters then they make a new one which suffers the same fate? History can only repeat itself for so long until people smart up to mistakes of the past. Things do change when people are educated of their mistakes and demand a better solution. Bitcoin is merely one example of an educated man trying to make a difference.
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cloon
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January 05, 2012, 09:17:10 PM |
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shure it is, but many people will only follow the main stream media and main stream politics and advertising and not have the connectiuon to the virtual "world" so the replacement of the USD will be used... but Bitcoin will take his part! The rise has just begun!^^
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donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
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the joint
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January 05, 2012, 09:24:02 PM |
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2012.11.04 ------ $1 Billion (nov. 4th)
2012.09.03 ------ Gold (sept. 3rd)
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the joint
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January 05, 2012, 09:26:02 PM |
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2013.01.01 - $1B 2012.12.21 - 1g Au
Not a bad guess, in my opinion. Someone was thinking of what has happened this holiday season
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farfiman
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January 05, 2012, 09:42:56 PM |
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2013.01.01 - $1B 2012.12.21 - 1g Au
sorry , the date is taken.... I say :
1Billion $ = 1st of January 2013 Gold= 1st of January 2014
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"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians." Martin Armstrong
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sadpandatech
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January 06, 2012, 01:26:23 AM Last edit: January 06, 2012, 12:58:47 PM by sadpandatech |
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My bets: 1B USD: 16 may 2012 Gold: 12 jun 2012
I'd have to scan back over the thread but I believe you are the only other person besides me who placed the btc = gold date after before the btc = 1B$ date. May I ask what is your thinking in this? cheers edit; duh
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If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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BTCurious
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January 06, 2012, 05:43:31 AM |
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My bets: 1B USD: 16 may 2012 Gold: 12 jun 2012
I'd have to scan back over the thread but I believe you are the only other person besides be who placed the btc = gold date after the btc = 1B$ date. May I ask what is your thinking in this? cheers I did it too, by a year difference, actually. My reasoning goes: If digital gold becomes worth more due to fiat issues, then actual gold will become worth more too.
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Otoh (OP)
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January 06, 2012, 12:11:59 PM Last edit: January 12, 2012, 12:04:46 PM by Otoh |
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Summary to date $1B2012 05 01 miscreanity 2012 05 10 lord bookington 2012 05 16 cloon 2012 06 01 finway 2012 06 27 Goat 2012 07 04 kjlimo 2012 10 02 niko 2012 10 30 sadpandatech 2012 11 04 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins 2013 01 01 farfiman 2013 02 13 Mageant 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 05 05 BTCurious 2013 05 08 kilmyos 2013 05 22 Clark 2013 07 14 Koekiemonster 2013 09 07 sgbett 2013 09 12 istar 2014 01 04 indeededausername 2015 04 01 Revalin 2016 07 08 proudhon 2017 09 11 Wekkel 2017 12 12 trogdorjw73 never - Hawkix 1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins 2012 12 21 Mageant 2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 never - westkybitcoins pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt
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BTCurious
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January 06, 2012, 12:45:22 PM |
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Thanks to kilmyos and ineededausername for picking dates extremely close to me
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miscreanity
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January 06, 2012, 06:33:05 PM |
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Ha! First for both. QE3 better not disappoint.
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Mageant
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January 06, 2012, 09:22:09 PM |
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2013.02.13 - $1B
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cjgames.com
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Otoh (OP)
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January 06, 2012, 09:35:00 PM Last edit: January 06, 2012, 10:56:31 PM by Otoh |
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^ summary above up dated, I would be fasinated to see Zhou Tong's estimates for this, hey if you're watching Zhou I'll double the prizes if you win for your favourite good cause
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ineededausername
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January 06, 2012, 09:38:32 PM |
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whoa, I'm actually a relative bear compared to everyone else
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(BFL)^2 < 0
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Wekkel
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yes
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January 07, 2012, 08:38:13 PM |
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Juggling with numbers can lead to more interesting thoughts. We know that in 2033, no additional BTC will be available. Let's assume that it will take up to 2033 to spread BTC: *to the entire population of 6 billion people; or *in exchange of the global total money supply of USD 60 trillion To make our life simple, we assume that the annual factor and the base number (people, money supply) remain constant. The graphs are inserted below. peoplemoney supplyThe factor [people] is 3,6 (remarkable close to phi), the factor [money supply] is 7,8. Of course, if the total time frame is less than 2009 to 2033, the factor to be used would have to be higher to meet the target. An interesting aspect is the nature of these graphs, or better to say, the math behind it. The graphs are build up by assuming a constant factor that increases the total number, but halfway, the same factor is used to decrease the increase (=still growth, but less and less annually until it is a flat line). This is based on the assumption that, at first, there will be a low number of participants/money invested in BTC. Moving on, the numbers explode after which the increase will slow down again. Since it follows from the formula, it is no surprise that the biggest increase is made around 2019-2020. It is clear that if you compress the total time frame to, let's say, 2022, the biggest increase would be round and about 2016. That's not the interesting part. The interesting part (as far as I am concerned) is that, on the basis of these premises, the number will be approximately 10% of the total number to be reached just when the increase is at its maximum velocity. Above, I already presented the link to a study showing that, for an idea to be accepted, a critical mass of 10% (or 13%) of all people should accept the idea. If the critical mass is reached, the rest will follow as a rule. spread of new ideaThe curve used in that study aligns with the formula used in my numbers-juggling-exercise. First the slow start, then the increase, then the top and the following decrease. To end this pick-your-number-and-base-your-argument-on-that-number exercise, it seems fair to assume that the actual factor of the BTC spread (in terms of people or committed cash) is way higher than the numbers in my projection. At least, in this stage. It remains to be seen whether the actual factor remains very high over the course of the next years. Someone else may calculate the actual average factor to project the predicted date on which the critical mass of 10% will be reached. It could be a lot sooner than we think, prone to error as we humans are in understanding the exponential factor. However, another thing to ponder is the known history of inventions, dating back to the 19th century. Usually, an invention lingers for about 10-15 years, before it suddenly gets adopted massively. Nowadays we see shorter time frames (Facebook, Youtube etc), but I think it is reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will stay in the dark for at least two more years before taking off. Buyin' time
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miscreanity
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January 10, 2012, 10:37:46 PM |
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Juggling with numbers can lead to more interesting thoughts.
Great analysis! Assuming it'll take until 2033 to reach a maximum might be stretching it a bit when taking into account the amplifying effect of progress in general. Normal transitions from one paradigm to another are one thing. I think existing circumstances have the potential to push a somewhat more rapid shift. Facebook's growth exhibits a very similar pattern. Bitcoin may propagate most rapidly through System D. That could hit within the 2-3 year mark as you suggest, and at an estimated $10 trillion it would boost Bitcoin several orders of magnitude in value. Of course, System D also makes heavy use of Hawala-style networks, so alternate systems such as Ripple will compete (although more in a complementary fashion rather than adversarial). In that sense, Bitcoin could still become a reserve or focal point, with Hawala/Ripple replacing what we currently view as the bank credit system and only engaging in Bitcoin transactions when it is difficult or impractical to engage in transactions otherwise (e.g. a large volume or distance for a small number of transfers).
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oOoOo
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January 11, 2012, 09:10:15 AM |
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- Gold/BTC parity/$s - 1st Aug. 2012
- Market cap $B - 30th Oct. 2012
My price -> 158es1Pbb7FLhuzVHVSRDT5bq4KWJ8oyf1 Greets, oOo
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Otoh (OP)
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January 11, 2012, 09:50:43 AM |
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- Gold/BTC parity/$s - 1st Aug. 2012
- Market cap $B - 30th Oct. 2012
My price -> 158es1Pbb7FLhuzVHVSRDT5bq4KWJ8oyf1 Greets, oOo 30 Oct 2012 Market Cap $B has already been bagged by sadpandatech, pse choose another date for this - see summary on previous page updated
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 08:32:11 PM |
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Summary to date $1B2012 05 01 miscreanity 2012 05 16 cloon 2012 06 27 Goat 2012 07 04 kjlimo 2012 10 02 niko 2012 10 30 sadpandatech 2012 11 04 the joint 2013 01 01 farfiman 2013.02.13 Mageant 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 05 05 BTCurious 2013 05 08 kilmyos 2013 07 14 Koekiemonster 2013 09 07 sgbett 2013 09 12 istar 2014 01 04 indeededausername 2015 04 01 Revalin $1B 2016 07 08 proudhon 2017 09 11 Wekkel 2017 12 12 trogdorjw73 Note: the average date for the $1B mark is 2013.10.28 That means the price will be about $80 then.
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Otoh (OP)
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January 11, 2012, 08:38:30 PM |
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& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 08:46:03 PM |
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& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*
If that prediction (2013.10.28) were to come true then we are way ahead of schedule with a current price of $7.
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 08:59:01 PM Last edit: January 11, 2012, 09:10:55 PM by Mageant |
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Here is an interesting calculation.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17 2012.07.01: $5.87 2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
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notme
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January 11, 2012, 09:12:41 PM |
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Here is an interesting calculation.
If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:
2012.01.01: $2.17 2012.07.01: $5.87 2013.01.01: $15.80
Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.
So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.
I don't trust vertical asymptotes... Horizontal is where it's at.
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Mageant
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January 11, 2012, 09:48:18 PM |
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Here is another calculation:
From $0.30 to $80 is a 266x increase
2011: $0.30 - $5 was already a 16x increase, that means about 16x more to go
projection: 2012: $5 - $40 with a 8x increase (which would still put us about a month too early with the current price, but that's close enough). 2013: $40 - $80 with a 2x increase
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cjgames.com
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finway
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January 12, 2012, 04:54:31 AM |
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1Billion: 1st June 2012
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Clark
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January 12, 2012, 06:18:52 AM |
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$1B: 22nd May 2013 1g Au: 10th June 2013
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westkybitcoins
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January 12, 2012, 06:53:21 AM |
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$1B: 2012-12-01 1au: never - the $ will have been rendered worthless before btc matches an ounce of gold
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Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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lord bookington
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January 12, 2012, 10:21:59 AM |
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1B 2012 05 10
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Otoh (OP)
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January 12, 2012, 10:37:25 AM Last edit: January 31, 2012, 09:11:40 PM by Otoh |
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Summary to date $1B2012 05 01 miscreanity 2012 05 10 lord bookington 2012 05 16 cloon 2012 06 01 finway 2012 06 27 Goat 2012 07 04 kjlimo 2012 07 07 foggyb 2012 10 02 niko 2012 10 30 sadpandatech 2012 11 04 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins 2012 12 07 notme 2013 01 01 farfiman 2013 01 07 chsados 2013 02 13 Mageant 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 05 05 BTCurious 2013 05 08 kilmyos 2013 05 22 Clark 2013 07 14 Koekiemonster 2013 09 07 sgbett 2013 09 12 istar 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 04 indeededausername 2014 06 23 Kluge 2015 04 01 Revalin 2016 07 08 proudhon 2017 09 11 Wekkel 2017 12 12 trogdorjw73 never - Hawkix 1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 07 foggyb 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 07 notme 2012 12 21 Mageant 2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 01 07 chsados 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 never - westkybitcoins pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt
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Otoh (OP)
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January 31, 2012, 01:13:33 PM Last edit: January 31, 2012, 01:24:25 PM by Otoh |
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OK last chance for any more votes or date picking here, I shall close this off tomorrow with a final summary (or an edit of the summary above) of the dates that have been chosen & leave the thread open, but any further dates picked after tomorrow will not be eligible for the prizes ~ good luck
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notme
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January 31, 2012, 01:17:19 PM |
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I would like to guess 2012-12-07 for both contests.
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Kluge
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January 31, 2012, 01:23:47 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
.... But there's a 5BTC prize, and "never" can never be paid out, so I'll predict $1b BTC total value on 23rd June, 2014.
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anu
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January 31, 2012, 01:33:40 PM |
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I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:
I have some difficulty understanding your stance. You seem to think that Bitcoin will lose value until ppl lose interest, leave and delete their wothless wallets to save disk space. While this is a possibility, the believe in it seems inconsistent to spending a lot of time with Bitcoin as you apparently do. Unless you don't value your time either. Don't you consider all the time you invested in Bitcoin a loss? All that knowledge which will be worthless if your hopes come true? Man, you need to get a life.
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chsados
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January 31, 2012, 01:53:42 PM Last edit: January 31, 2012, 02:30:10 PM by chsados |
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I would like to guess 2013-01-07 for both contests.
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westkybitcoins
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January 31, 2012, 03:47:20 PM |
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Summary to date 1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins2012 12 07 notme 2012 12 21 Mageant 2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 03 23 Scott J 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 never - westkybitcoins pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt Just a little fix for ya.
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Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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anu
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January 31, 2012, 03:56:44 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.
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foggyb
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January 31, 2012, 04:02:05 PM |
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$1B: 2012 07 07 1g Au: 2012 06 07
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waspoza
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January 31, 2012, 04:21:12 PM |
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Im picking 2015.04.01 (april 1st) for both.
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Kluge
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January 31, 2012, 04:35:47 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.
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memvola
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January 31, 2012, 05:32:04 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage. This made me curious about what the most expensive thing ever bought with Bitcoin is (I'm suspecting it's a business rather than a commodity). Maybe we need a poll about this too. $1B isn't insane, the market cap went above $100M during last year. Granted, it was a surprise but if we witness another surprise of that magnitude, $1B would be less than impressive.
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Otoh (OP)
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January 31, 2012, 06:17:05 PM |
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summary on the previous page updated
westkybitcoins - thanks for pointing out my error with your AU call
waspoza - your date for B$1 is taken so please re-choose if you wish to enter one for that
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anu
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January 31, 2012, 07:42:02 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage. You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox.
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Kluge
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January 31, 2012, 07:47:26 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage. You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox. I don't think BTC is at its peak, fwiw. I don't recall a time when BTC didn't fluctuate at least 10% in value from the high to low for a week since I've started mining ~April/May '11, however. It's possible BTC could reach $1b in total value, possible God exists as defined by the KJV Bible, and possible Sasquatch exists in space and is plotting the demise of the human race.
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waspoza
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January 31, 2012, 08:04:23 PM |
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waspoza - your date for B$1 is taken so please re-choose if you wish to enter one for that
Damn, looks like someone have birthday same day as me. I'm taking 2013.12.06 (december) then. For both.
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Otoh (OP)
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February 01, 2012, 05:12:48 PM Last edit: April 04, 2013, 12:36:23 AM by Otoh |
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Here's the final summary of the dates chosen, voting & prize entries are now closed, with the time frame of the 4 years up to the end of 2017 being the most popular years for issued Bitcoins to reach $1 B in the poll votes, but 2012 taking it in the date choice & the same for 1 BTC to gain parity with 1 gm Au. Here also a rounded up table of the approx BTC price for achieving $1 B in the years of them being mined & the $ value of each 5 BTC prize offered - though I chose dates for 2015 myself the sooner I get to give those prizes away the happier I'll be Year 1BTC 5BTC 5BTC 20BTC (the doubled prize for winning both dates) 2012 $110 $550 $550 $2,2002013 $95 $475 $475 $1,900 <--- WTG BTC & Scott J ~ March 2013 for the double prize! 2014 $80 $400 $400 $1,600 2015 $75 $375 $375 $1,500 2016 $65 $325 $325 $1,300 2018 $60 $300 $300 $1,200 2020 $55 $275 $275 $1,100 2023 $50 $250 $250 $1,000 2033 $48 $238 $238 $952 Final Summary $1B2012 05 01 miscreanity 2012 05 10 lord bookington 2012 05 16 cloon 2012 06 01 finway 2012 06 27 Goat 2012 07 04 kjlimo 2012 07 07 foggyb 2012 10 02 niko 2012 10 30 sadpandatech 2012 11 04 the joint 2012 12 01 westkybitcoins 2012 12 07 notme
2013 01 01 farfiman 2013 01 07 chsados 2013 02 13 Mageant2013 03 23 Scott J <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent 2013 05 05 BTCurious 2013 05 08 kilmyos 2013 05 22 Clark 2013 07 14 Koekiemonster 2013 09 07 sgbett 2013 09 12 istar 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 04 indeededausername 2014 06 23 Kluge 2015 04 01 Revalin 2015 04 02 Otoh 2016 07 08 proudhon 2017 09 11 Wekkel 2017 12 12 trogdorjw73 Never - Hawkix1g Au2012 04 01 miscreanity 2012 05 03 Goat 2012 05 13 Niko 2012 06 07 foggyb 2012 06 12 cloon 2012 08 01 oOoOo 2012 08 03 sadpandatech 2012 08 10 kjlimo 2012 09 03 the joint 2012 12 07 notme 2012 12 21 Mageant
2013 01 03 Koekiemonster 2013 01 07 chsados2013 03 23 Scott J <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent 2013 04 13 proudhon 2013 06 10 Clark 2013 12 06 waspoza 2014 01 01 farfiman 2014 03 04 Wekkel 2014 04 01 Revalin 2014 05 03 indeededausername 2014 05 05 BTCurious 2015 05 05 Otoh 2016 09 07 sgbett 2018 06 27 trogdorjw73 Never - westkybitcoinsPrizes: 1BiLLioN Sent: Tx1GramAu1 Sent: Tx1x2wins Sent: Tx
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Piper67
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February 01, 2012, 05:21:25 PM |
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Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.
Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market. AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage. You are setting an OUGHT to the current IS. If I thought the current state of Bitcoin is the summit, I'd be out as fast as a transfer goes to MtGox. I don't think BTC is at its peak, fwiw. I don't recall a time when BTC didn't fluctuate at least 10% in value from the high to low for a week since I've started mining ~April/May '11, however. It's possible BTC could reach $1b in total value, possible God exists as defined by the KJV Bible, and possible Sasquatch exists in space and is plotting the demise of the human race. There is no chance God exists... there's a remote chance a sasquatch exists... there's almost certainty Bitcoin will reach a market cap of $1b.
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miscreanity
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February 01, 2012, 08:38:34 PM |
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I should've said 5/01 for both, so I'd win by default if either hit within the next three months. Does this mean I should be rooting for QE3 & WWIII?
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foggyb
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February 03, 2012, 07:52:53 PM |
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There is no chance God exists... there's a remote chance a sasquatch exists... there's almost certainty Bitcoin will reach a market cap of $1b.
Too many logical fallacies here, and too little time.
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westkybitcoins
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Firstbits: Compromised. Thanks, Android!
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July 16, 2012, 04:16:35 AM |
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Current number of bitcoins: 9.464M
Current bitcoin price: $7.68 USD
Current price of all bitcoins: ~$72.68M
I should have aimed for next year....
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Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
... ... In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber... ... ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)... ... The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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July 16, 2012, 04:22:23 AM |
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Current number of bitcoins: 9.464M
Current bitcoin price: $7.68 USD
Current price of all bitcoins: ~$72.68M
I should have aimed for next year....
It's not impossible for it to happen by December 31st, 2012
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███████████████████████████████████████
,╓p@@███████@╗╖, ,p████████████████████N, d█████████████████████████b d██████████████████████████████æ ,████²█████████████████████████████, ,█████ ╙████████████████████╨ █████y ██████ `████████████████` ██████ ║██████ Ñ███████████` ███████ ███████ ╩██████Ñ ███████ ███████ ▐▄ ²██╩ a▌ ███████ ╢██████ ▐▓█▄ ▄█▓▌ ███████ ██████ ▐▓▓▓▓▌, ▄█▓▓▓▌ ██████─ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─ ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩ ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀ ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀` ²²² ███████████████████████████████████████
| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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July 16, 2012, 04:30:04 AM |
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I really thought there would be some useful developments for Bitcoin, but other than Bitzino I don't see much on the horizon until Bitcoincard goes into production. If you think of Bitcoin as a business, it doesn't offer much in the way of services yet.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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adamstgBit
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Trusted Bitcoiner
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July 16, 2012, 06:33:06 AM |
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i just had the a long ass day my father in-law's truck broke down as we tried to leave after picking up a frige and stove finaly we get back, somke a joint drink a beer, OPEN a bottle of wine i take a cab back my father in-lawl is now in 100$ in and who knows about the cab driver I gave him bitcoin 101 on drugsand fuck 'en did it did it right, its not the first time i talk to TAXI VS about bitcoin but this time i spelled it out and this guy is oing in 100$ at least! bitcoin trutly is a beacon of hpe and thats why man ,..... thats why it works, because we want it to BTC BTC8$ is NOTHING its nothing more then the top after the well deserved bubble we just had ,... 12$ Bitch! paY UP!!!
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BadBitcoin (James Sutton)
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July 16, 2012, 02:46:25 PM |
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i just had the a long ass day my father in-law's truck broke down as we tried to leave after picking up a frige and stove finaly we get back, somke a joint drink a beer, OPEN a bottle of wine i take a cab back my father in-lawl is now in 100$ in and who knows about the cab driver I gave him bitcoin 101 on drugsand fuck 'en did it did it right, its not the first time i talk to TAXI VS about bitcoin but this time i spelled it out and this guy is oing in 100$ at least! bitcoin trutly is a beacon of hpe and thats why man ,..... thats why it works, because we want it to BTC BTC8$ is NOTHING its nothing more then the top after the well deserved bubble we just had ,... 12$ Bitch! paY UP!!! were going to have another bubble, and then another after that, and another....
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Otoh (OP)
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October 15, 2012, 06:42:35 PM Last edit: January 01, 2013, 10:12:31 PM by Otoh |
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Updated the OP & summary post above to show the prize coins set aside for this, I'm thinking now we'll see this happening in 2017 with a price of over $60 per BTC then & not just a bubble either. Prizes: 1BiLLioN1GramAu11x2winsNote entries for the prizes are closed.
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Mageant
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March 06, 2013, 09:19:32 AM |
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Looks like this might actually happen this year already.
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cjgames.com
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Koekiemonster
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Bitbuy.nl!
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March 21, 2013, 10:19:22 PM |
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The 1g AU bet seems to be finished and 1B doesn't seem to be far away as well.
2013 03 23 Scott J This is de 1g AU winner I guess?
And since Scott has the same date for both I guess there's a pretty good chance he'll win both and so 20BTC or about 2000$ by then.
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Otoh (OP)
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March 21, 2013, 10:51:25 PM Last edit: March 23, 2013, 10:17:48 PM by Otoh |
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The 1g AU bet seems to be finished and 1B doesn't seem to be far away as well.
2013 03 23 Scott J This is de 1g AU winner I guess?
And since Scott has the same date for both I guess there's a pretty good chance he'll win both and so 20BTC or about 2000$ by then.
Yep, you're right - ty, it does look like Scott J has won the 1g Au bet as 1g Au = $51.93 atm (laughably close to it's price when I made this poll over one year ago on 2012 01 04 = $51.25 up under 1.5% only), whilst 1 btc which was under $5 at the time has done appreciably better (up over 1,375%) & is now at $71.50 with this jump up which happened so fast from $50 over the last 3 days or so & did occur since the last person's entry of expected value. I shall review it all over the next couple of days.
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Otoh (OP)
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March 22, 2013, 10:40:08 PM Last edit: March 16, 2014, 11:06:29 PM by Otoh |
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Yep, I can confirm that 1 BTC first equaled 1 gram of gold on the 18th March 2013, so Scott J with a pick of the 23rd March 2013 was easily the closest & wins a 5 BTC prize, for the $1B prize we would need a BTC price of approx $95 if it was to be in 2013 which seems possible now, if over $100 (?) happens before mid April roughly (need to calculate coins issued times price) then Scott J would win the times two doubling prize for a total of 20 BTC all together. Scott J - please post an address that you would like your prize to be sent to, many thanks & congratulations! Edit: just tracking you down, it looks like it's: 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh - I've PM-ed you for confirmation. > !Amazing to think that 1,000 BTC now equals considerably more than 1 Kg of gold atm. Funny how the price then climbed about 50% to 1.5 gms Au/BTC over just the next 3 days & then crashed back to about 1 gm again 2 days after that, now somewhere in the middle-ish, maybe 1.25 gms approx. Edited to add, from the distant future of about Nov 2013, the BTC vs Gold Oz chart:
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Scott J
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March 23, 2013, 08:34:54 PM |
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WOW! This is really amazing I obviously thought it so unlikely that I would win either prize, let alone standing a chance of winning the 20 BTC!! Thank you, Otoh - this was a really fun competition and is very generous of you Sending to this address would be great - 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh
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Otoh (OP)
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March 23, 2013, 08:57:16 PM |
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WOW! This is really amazing I obviously thought it so unlikely that I would win either prize, let alone standing a chance of winning the 20 BTC!! Thank you, Otoh - this was a really fun competition and is very generous of you Sending to this address would be great - 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh My pleasure: https://blockchain.info/tx/a6b9e02b65c77883c7c8a32ff39678dfd05f421797d51fec55b4aa2285cf7adf Good luck for the $1B double prize, you should make some headlines if you've predicted that one correctly too
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Scott J
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March 23, 2013, 09:06:17 PM |
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WOW! This is really amazing I obviously thought it so unlikely that I would win either prize, let alone standing a chance of winning the 20 BTC!! Thank you, Otoh - this was a really fun competition and is very generous of you Sending to this address would be great - 1ScottJJpqTCBbTqnPa7Dyak5cfBPhtdh My pleasure: https://blockchain.info/tx/a6b9e02b65c77883c7c8a32ff39678dfd05f421797d51fec55b4aa2285cf7adf Good luck for the $1B double prize, you should make some headlines if you've predicted that one correctly too I can but hope I love that there's a public note on the blockchain.info transaction - I assume you have added this somehow? Thanks again
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Otoh (OP)
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March 23, 2013, 09:33:10 PM |
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Yep, it's a feature of the excellent blockchain.info wallets, I expect that you'll need a price of at least $100 if not over by mid April (coins issued to date times value) for $1B, if we hit $100 though I expect that 'the over' part will not be a problem with the news splash that will make, anyway should be a fun month to watch, good luck!
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Bennmann
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March 24, 2013, 01:19:31 AM |
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I realize the party is over, but here's a guess $1bil on 2013.4.10
Just for my own personal satisfaction.
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Otoh (OP)
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March 24, 2013, 01:16:01 PM Last edit: March 24, 2013, 03:41:23 PM by Otoh |
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Bennmann
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March 24, 2013, 01:55:49 PM |
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1 BTC = 12.5kg gold bar 2014.9.13
Edit: same hour as original post for typo
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Otoh (OP)
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March 24, 2013, 03:21:05 PM Last edit: March 24, 2013, 03:55:02 PM by Otoh |
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1 BTC = 12.5kg gold bar 2014.9.13
Edit: same hour as original post for typo
I expect that you meant 1,000 BTC = 12.5 Kg of gold here, yes? May as well make this a competition as well then, I'll have a think about an appropriate prize - maybe a couple of 1 BTC Casascius coins, also I've just started a competition thread similar to the one here but for litecoins this time, with a total of up to 500 LTC being offered in prizes. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157448.0
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Scott J
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March 24, 2013, 07:09:54 PM |
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for the $1B prize we would need a BTC price of approx $95 if it was to be in 2013 which seems possible now, if over $100 (?) happens before mid April roughly (need to calculate coins issued times price) then Scott J would win the times two doubling prize for a total of 20 BTC all together. If anyone wants to make a massive purchase and push the price over $100, I'll be happy to part with 1 BTC of the prize as compensation. Surely that's enough incentive
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MarlboroMan
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March 25, 2013, 01:16:48 AM |
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May 4th!
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Otoh (OP)
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March 27, 2013, 05:28:36 PM Last edit: March 28, 2013, 01:52:05 AM by Otoh |
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Update on $1B At the time of writing (about 4 hours ago) 228,251 blocks have been mined for a total of 10,956,300 Bitcoins. Multiplied by the price of $89.245 per bitcoin, brings us to a Market capitalization of $977,794,993.50 Data from: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1b3w7h/so_close_to_1_billion_what_happens_afterwards/ & Gox highest price today. (In the approx 4 hours since the Reddit OP I think that's about 600 bitcoins extra mined, which I haven't included)
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Scott J
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March 27, 2013, 06:25:19 PM |
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Sorry, Otoh! Looks like this might just happen
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Otoh (OP)
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March 27, 2013, 06:31:58 PM |
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Sorry, Otoh! Looks like this might just happen It's all good
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jubalix
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March 27, 2013, 10:54:39 PM |
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Sorry, Otoh! Looks like this might just happen It's all good what do u mean in your sig LTC = $c³
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Otoh (OP)
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March 28, 2013, 01:17:37 AM Last edit: March 28, 2013, 02:03:15 AM by Otoh |
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Sorry, Otoh! Looks like this might just happen It's all good what do u mean in your sig LTC = $c³ It's a play on E= Mc² with BTC as energy being = to old fiat $ & cents to the power of 2, ie squared, or in another dimension of functionality, speed, freedom, appreciation, adaption, independence & security. &/or BTC as equivalent to energy being = in comparison to old fiat $ represented as mass, times the speed of light squared, which to me is the difference between government/central bank currencies & the first really functioning P2P open source virtual currency with a fixed known total number being generated, ie Bitcoin, is in a totally different league in other words. Re LTC = $c³ It's a bit tongue in cheek, but I'm a great fan of the main BTC Alt & see enormous potential for it's adaption & growth, especially in niche markets where ppl need faster confirmations & where it's more user friendly to have units worth closer to $1 - $10 each say than stratospheric as BTC may become & then having to deal is small fractions of a coin for most uses, so I called it to the power of 3, ie cubed, which I also believe may be the potential investment returns from it in comparison to bitcoins as things stand atm. I think that it compliments Bitcoin fantastically & is the ideal backup up currency. As soon as Armory wallet is forked for use with LTC or any number of other possible Apps or uses I expect to see the LTC price at around 1/10 of BTC's, there are 4 times as many LTC due to exist so this is quite a modest possibility for competitive price if things roll out well. In this world everything is duality, nothing comes in to existence without it's counterpart, day - night, male - female, energy - matter, yang - yin, life - death, if you like then, Coke - Pepsi, PC - Mac, Etc Etc, I see LTC as being the natural & ideal counterpart to BTC atm., like a piece of paper always has two sides - that's how things are on the Elementry school of Earth & it's what we're here to master IMO.. While two represents duality, three shows the evolution of this, it's offspring or product if you like & so progress. 0. Cowrie shells, etc 1. Fiat2. BTC 3. LTC
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jubalix
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March 28, 2013, 05:01:05 AM |
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2013 04 13 proudhon --->
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BitPirate
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RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
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March 28, 2013, 05:25:44 AM |
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Congratulations Scott J!
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Spaceman_Spiff
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₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
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March 28, 2013, 05:48:25 AM |
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Scott J
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March 28, 2013, 07:27:11 AM |
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2013 04 13 proudhon ---> I think that guess was for the gold competition. Congratulations Scott J! Thank you! Though I am not going to celebrate until I get confirmation from the man himself
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Bowjob
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March 28, 2013, 07:35:05 AM |
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Wow.. how'd you guess that
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It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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Scott J
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March 28, 2013, 07:44:16 AM |
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Wow.. how'd you guess that
I put it down to my B in GCSE maths
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Bowjob
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March 28, 2013, 08:23:44 AM |
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Wow.. how'd you guess that
I put it down to my B in GCSE maths Any future guesses in the coming months?
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It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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Otoh (OP)
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March 28, 2013, 11:10:15 AM Last edit: March 28, 2013, 12:22:10 PM by Otoh |
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A couple of hours ago I'm seeing Bitcoin monetary base is 10,959,250 BTC, which is worth over $1,000,000,000 USD at current price, so a $1B market cap (if that's the correct term), anyway a net market value for Bitcoin of $1B, later today when I've looked in to the exact block multiplied by the price when it was mined then I will confirm, it looks like Scott J scooped the double prizes for sure though, especially as the price has gone up to a high of $95.70 since, Congrats! Same address? Mouse over shows total bitcoins mined to date = 10,950,975 BTC, or on http://www.blockchained.com/ it shows 10,960,050 coins, anyway it's over 1B$ at current prices, not sure exactly which block made it but it's confirmed.
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DanielBTC
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March 28, 2013, 11:12:44 AM |
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Close your eyes.. sooo.. Now! Open your eyes. Here we are.
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Scott J
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March 28, 2013, 01:18:27 PM |
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The same address will be fine, thank you so much!
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Otoh (OP)
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March 28, 2013, 01:47:46 PM |
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The same address will be fine, thank you so much!
Cool, I'm afk for a few hours now but will send it upon my return & also PM you re a possible small favor.
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Otoh (OP)
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March 28, 2013, 08:37:40 PM |
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Otoh (OP)
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March 28, 2013, 09:30:11 PM Last edit: March 28, 2013, 09:52:54 PM by Otoh |
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I am delighted that Scott J has won this & thank him for his very generous freely given contribution to my favorite personal charity, a savings fund in BTC/LTC for college fees etc of a child who's father died in a tragic accident in 2010 & who's mother's sister is a very good friend of mine. Wishing everyone who entered the best of luck on my LTC comp, with a total of 500 LTC in prizes up for grabs.
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Scott J
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March 28, 2013, 09:35:21 PM |
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I am delighted that Scott J has won this & thank him for his very generous freely given contribution to my favorite personal charity, a savings fund in BTC/LTC for college fees etc of a child who's father died in a tragic accident in 2010 & who's mother's sister is a very good friend of mine. Wishing everyone who entered the best of luck on my LTC comp, up to 500 LTC in prizes up for grabs. Thank you again, Otoh! I am really happy to contribute to such a worthwhile cause
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Otoh (OP)
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March 28, 2013, 09:59:32 PM |
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I suspect that the universe may have taken you up on your (tongue in cheek) offer to pay a 1 BTC reward if someone would buy to $100, though it got you the double prize without needing to push the price up that far, for me one's potential behavior in the future totally influences events in the present & so how they turn out.
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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April 12, 2013, 01:31:46 PM |
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This would be a good poll to re-open.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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Otoh (OP)
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April 12, 2013, 10:12:34 PM Last edit: April 12, 2013, 11:16:45 PM by Otoh |
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This would be a good poll to re-open.
+1 I will do so tomorrow on a new thread. Edit: as we're back above $100 atm, then we're well > $1B again so no need to do this right now.
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BTCurious
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April 16, 2013, 10:42:27 AM |
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This would be a good poll to re-open.
+1 I will do so tomorrow on a new thread. Edit: as we're back above $100 atm, then we're well > $1B again so no need to do this right now. How about now?
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Otoh (OP)
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April 16, 2013, 11:02:43 AM |
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lol, let me think about it for a day or two, but if we go under $50 then yes definitely.
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cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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July 05, 2013, 02:45:05 AM |
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Still thinking.
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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Otoh (OP)
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Merit: 1105
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July 05, 2013, 11:17:54 AM Last edit: July 05, 2013, 12:52:19 PM by Otoh |
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We're still too close Btc = $75 approx, for a total of $844M atm & if/when Btc = $88 it would bring us back to over $1B again, it's only dipped under that for 2 days or less atm, but if the price does fall to $50 or less then definately it's due for a re-run. If it stays well under for a month, in the $50s to $60s, then that also would warrent a rerun I guess. Since we made $1B last March we have only dipped below it for a few days at most, it will be interesting to see if it's going to be different this time. Clearer edit without the volume lines, though they're of interest so I'll leave the previous pic up too.
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BTCurious
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July 11, 2013, 07:56:22 AM |
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That's a nice graph! I like how you took into account the coin generation
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Otoh (OP)
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July 11, 2013, 12:08:14 PM Last edit: July 15, 2013, 12:11:21 AM by Otoh |
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Many thanks, glad you like & Bitcoin recovered to over $88 on Wednesday the 10th July for $1B again, atm it's dipped just below the line, with 11,400,625 coins out there $1B needs a price of $87.70 atm for $1B.
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