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Question: Bitcoins generated to date x price = $1,000,000,000  (Voting closed: February 01, 2012, 01:08:25 PM)
before the end of 2012 - 40 (24.1%)
before the end of 2013 - 41 (24.7%)
before the end of 2017 - 45 (27.1%)
before the end of 2021 - 12 (7.2%)
before the end of 2033 - 2 (1.2%)
after the end of 2033 - 3 (1.8%)
never - 23 (13.9%)
Total Voters: 165

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Author Topic: Poll :: When will Bitcoin reach $1 Billion total value  (Read 12286 times)
Otoh
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January 11, 2012, 08:38:30 PM
 #61

& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*

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January 11, 2012, 08:46:03 PM
 #62

& that'd make the prize total up to $2,000 or $4,000 if Zhou were to play & pick both winning dates, yikes! *quickly buys 50 more BTC @ < $7*

If that prediction (2013.10.28) were to come true then we are way ahead of schedule with a current price of $7.

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January 11, 2012, 08:59:01 PM
 #63

Here is an interesting calculation.

If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:

2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80

Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.

So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.

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January 11, 2012, 09:12:41 PM
 #64

Here is an interesting calculation.

If we have a $80 target date on 2013.10.28 then we get the following intermediate prices assuming an even exponential rise starting on 2011.01.01 at $0.30:

2012.01.01: $2.17
2012.07.01: $5.87
2013.01.01: $15.80

Surprisingly, the price of $2.17 is very close to the absolute low that was reached in November 2011. So this projection just missed that target price by a few weeks.

So the current price of $6-$7 is either too optimistic or the estimate of $80 on 2013.10.28 is not optimistic enough. Another possibility is though that it will rise more slowly once it reaches higher prices.


I don't trust vertical asymptotes... Horizontal is where it's at.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 11, 2012, 09:48:18 PM
 #65

Here is another calculation:

From $0.30 to $80 is a 266x increase

2011: $0.30 - $5 was already a 16x increase, that means about 16x more to go

projection:
2012: $5 - $40 with a 8x increase (which would still put us about a month too early with the current price, but that's close enough).
2013: $40 - $80 with a 2x increase

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January 12, 2012, 04:54:31 AM
 #66

1Billion: 1st June 2012

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So much code.


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January 12, 2012, 06:18:52 AM
 #67

$1B: 22nd May 2013
1g Au: 10th June 2013

PGP KEY | 1Bitcoin3Tg2KWyAq3wzivdqwYqGwKYaGd
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January 12, 2012, 06:53:21 AM
 #68

$1B: 2012-12-01
1au: never - the $ will have been rendered worthless before btc matches an ounce of gold

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
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In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
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ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
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The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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January 12, 2012, 10:21:59 AM
 #69

1B 2012 05 10
Otoh
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January 12, 2012, 10:37:25 AM
 #70

 Sad  Summary to date  Smiley

$1B

2012 05 01 miscreanity
2012 05 10 lord bookington
2012 05 16 cloon
2012 06 01 finway
2012 06 27 Goat
2012 07 04 kjlimo
2012 07 07 foggyb
2012 10 02 niko
2012 10 30 sadpandatech
2012 11 04 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme

2013 01 01 farfiman
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 02 13 Mageant
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 05 05 BTCurious
2013 05 08 kilmyos
2013 05 22 Clark
2013 07 14 Koekiemonster
2013 09 07 sgbett
2013 09 12 istar
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 04 indeededausername
2014 06 23 Kluge

2015 04 01 Revalin

2016 07 08 proudhon

2017 09 11 Wekkel
2017 12 12 trogdorjw73

never - Hawkix

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 07 foggyb
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 01 07 chsados
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark
2013 12 06 waspoza

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

never - westkybitcoins

pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt

Node40.com is a leader in DASH hosting, dedicated exclusively to fully managed masternode hosting. Professional, organized, and responsive. I have many dozens of nodes with them.    
BTC = $c²     BTC = 1otohotohMoQoxHuxLBveQiZcV3Pji3Tc      DASH, Digital Cash = www.dash.org   
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January 31, 2012, 01:13:33 PM
 #71

OK last chance for any more votes or date picking here, I shall close this off tomorrow with a final summary (or an edit of the summary above) of the dates that have been chosen & leave the thread open, but any further dates picked after tomorrow will not be eligible for the prizes ~ good luck  Tongue

Node40.com is a leader in DASH hosting, dedicated exclusively to fully managed masternode hosting. Professional, organized, and responsive. I have many dozens of nodes with them.    
BTC = $c²     BTC = 1otohotohMoQoxHuxLBveQiZcV3Pji3Tc      DASH, Digital Cash = www.dash.org   
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January 31, 2012, 01:17:19 PM
 #72

I would like to guess 2012-12-07 for both contests.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 31, 2012, 01:23:47 PM
 #73

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.


.... But there's a 5BTC prize, and "never" can never be paid out, so I'll predict $1b BTC total value on 23rd June, 2014.

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January 31, 2012, 01:33:40 PM
 #74

I also don't think it'll ever reach $1B, but for the hellofit:

I have some difficulty understanding your stance. You seem to think that Bitcoin will lose value until ppl lose interest, leave and delete their wothless wallets to save disk space. While this is a possibility, the believe in it seems inconsistent to spending a lot of time with Bitcoin as you apparently do. Unless you don't value your time either. Don't you consider all the time you invested in Bitcoin a loss? All that knowledge which will be worthless if your hopes come true? Man, you need to get a life.

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January 31, 2012, 01:53:42 PM
 #75

I would like to guess 2013-01-07 for both contests.
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January 31, 2012, 03:47:20 PM
 #76

Sad  Summary to date  Smiley

1g Au

2012 04 01 miscreanity
2012 05 03 Goat
2012 05 13 Niko
2012 06 12 cloon
2012 08 01 oOoOo
2012 08 03 sadpandatech
2012 08 10 kjlimo
2012 09 03 the joint
2012 12 01 westkybitcoins
2012 12 07 notme
2012 12 21 Mageant

2013 01 03 Koekiemonster
2013 03 23 Scott J
2013 04 13 proudhon
2013 06 10 Clark

2014 01 01 farfiman
2014 03 04 Wekkel
2014 04 01 Revalin
2014 05 03 indeededausername
2014 05 05 BTCurious

2016 09 07 sgbett

2018 06 27 trogdorjw73

never - westkybitcoins

pse to let me know if I've made any typos or missed anyone out, mt

Just a little fix for ya. Smiley

Bitcoin is the ultimate freedom test. It tells you who is giving lip service and who genuinely believes in it.
...
...
In the future, books that summarize the history of money will have a line that says, “and then came bitcoin.” It is the economic singularity. And we are living in it now. - Ryan Dickherber
...
...
ATTENTION BFL MINING NEWBS: Just got your Jalapenos in? Wondering how to get the most value for the least hassle? Give BitMinter a try! It's a smaller pool with a fair & low-fee payment method, lots of statistical feedback, and it's easier than EasyMiner! (Yes, we want your hashing power, but seriously, it IS the easiest pool to use! Sign up in seconds to try it!)
...
...
The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
anu
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January 31, 2012, 03:56:44 PM
 #77

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.

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January 31, 2012, 04:02:05 PM
 #78

$1B: 2012 07 07
1g Au: 2012 06 07
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January 31, 2012, 04:21:12 PM
 #79

Im picking 2015.04.01 (april 1st) for both.
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January 31, 2012, 04:35:47 PM
 #80

Lending is the ultimate long position, but $1b is insane. Governments would start getting really aggressive at that point.

Insane? It's required! Now you cannot even pay a car with Bitcoin without moving the market.
AFAIK, nobody buys cars with Bitcoin (at least not cars worth enough to move the market). Bitcoins are great for novelties, drugs, and discounted gift cards, but video cards are generally the most expensive items users typically buy (pulling that statistic out of my ass, but I don't think many would argue). The Bitcoin exchange rate is extremely volatile, and I don't imagine there are many people willing invest a significant sum of money in a currency which fluctuates 10% in price day-to-day (it's certainly kept me up at night). I don't see any signs of that volatility going away, and while it remains, nobody's going to post in the lending subforum requesting an $80k home mortgage.

Don't mix your coins someone said isn't legal
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