The psychology of a HODLer

[ParabellumLite]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

[inca]

You posted a load of bollocks on here yesterday, too.

Nothing goes straight up. Look at the chart going back further than December 2013 to get an idea why bitcoin aficionado's hope for further returns in the future.

Scarcity coupled with adoption means unless bitcoin fails its price will rise, and likely rise significantly.

Everyone on here knows bitcoin is a high risk investment. Those of us who hold btc as part of a portfolio do so expecting returns over years rather than hours or days.

You have sold. Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

[ParabellumLite]

You posted a load of bollocks on here yesterday, too.


You have sold. Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

Well to be honest, I wont even consider buying back even if Bitcoin hits double digits. This experiment isn't alive among the people and is only being talked about by a select few that are 'convinced' that Satoshi reinvented the wheel.

But to summarize the part that actually dealt with this topic: you believe that people HODL (only) for 'the long run'? Curious.

[knightcoin]

You posted a load of bollocks on here yesterday, too.


You have sold. Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

Well to be honest, I wont even consider buying back even if Bitcoin hits double digits. This experiment isn't alive among the people and is only being talked about by a select few that are 'convinced' that Satoshi reinvented the wheel.
But to summarize the part that actually dealt with this topic: you believe that people HODL (only) for 'the long run'? Curious.

Do you have any idea about what was the main problem bitcoin had solved as trustless/consensus/cryptology protocol ?

[JimboToronto]

Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity.

Don't assume he's intentionally spreading FUD. He might actually believe that nonsense he was spewing.

[Meman]

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Once their position turns deep into red, they all become "long term investors".
Later, they desperately sell their position near the price bottom. It's magic.

[ParabellumLite]

Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity.

Don't assume he's intentionally spreading FUD. He might actually believe that nonsense he was spewing.

These boards at its finest again. I guess I've seen enough. Such hostility again .

[inca]

Attempting to spread FUD on here at what may turn out to be near the turning point (in the hope of buying in lower) is pretty low.

Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity.

Don't assume he's intentionally spreading FUD. He might actually believe that nonsense he was spewing.

I imagine most people hold a speculative asset that has consistently risen over the medium term because they expect it to rise over the long term.

We could all be wrong and it may fall to zero. That's called risk. Next silly question.

[Jutarul]

Your post is misleading. There is not one type of HODLer. There are many different reasons to become a "HODLer".

However, I tend to distinguish two kinds of underlying characteristics for strong HODLers:
a) rational
b) irrational

Irrational is mainly driven by greed and speculation, and is usually fueled by the "hope" that bitcoin valuation will be greater in the future. These people are subject to emotional barriers and run the risk of cashing out at the wrong time.

Rational is mainly driven by wealth creation strategies which are mainly based on risk management strategies. E.g. if you have invested $10k in bitcoin in 2011 and have cashed out $10k by now your "investment risk" is zero. Of course this assumes that you do not count your remaining bitcoin position towards your liquid or cash-based assets. Also there are a lot of "rational" investor strategies which do not result in HODLers - it really depends on your underlying investment philosophy. For an example of a rational HODLing strategy read this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

[freebit13]

Your post is misleading. There is not one type of HODLer. There are many different reasons to become a "HODLer".

However, I tend to distinguish two kinds of underlying characteristics for strong HODLers:
a) rational
b) irrational

Irrational is mainly driven by greed and speculation, and is usually fueled by the "hope" that bitcoin valuation will be greater in the future. These people are subject to emotional barriers and run the risk of cashing out at the wrong time.

Rational is mainly driven by wealth creation strategies which are mainly based on risk management strategies. E.g. if you have invested $10k in bitcoin in 2011 and have cashed out $10k by now your "investment risk" is zero. Of course this assumes that you do not count your remaining bitcoin position towards your liquid or cash-based assets. Also there are a lot of "rational" investor strategies which do not result in HODLers - it really depends on your underlying investment philosophy. For an example of a rational HODLing strategy read this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Exactly this, not everybody bought in at the top a few months ago. I've already withdrawn my original fiat investment, bought mining hardware, handed out paper wallets to friends and family and I've still got enough coins to put a smile on my face.

It's not a religion, it's just that many of us see and understand the potential that bitcoin has and know that it will continue, regardless of the price on the exchanges and we will continue to support it accordingly.

P.S. Thanks so much for the OP, it has given me an insight into the psychology of a panic seller, I've never quite understood them, but now I see it's probably because they only got in with the prospect of making a quick buck and have no idea about the actual protocol...

[ParabellumLite]

Your post is misleading. There is not one type of HODLer. There are many different reasons to become a "HODLer".

However, I tend to distinguish two kinds of underlying characteristics for strong HODLers:
a) rational
b) irrational

Irrational is mainly driven by greed and speculation, and is usually fueled by the "hope" that bitcoin valuation will be greater in the future. These people are subject to emotional barriers and run the risk of cashing out at the wrong time.

Rational is mainly driven by wealth creation strategies which are mainly based on risk management strategies. E.g. if you have invested $10k in bitcoin in 2011 and have cashed out $10k by now your "investment risk" is zero. Of course this assumes that you do not count your remaining bitcoin position towards your liquid or cash-based assets. Also there are a lot of "rational" investor strategies which do not result in HODLers - it really depends on your underlying investment philosophy. For an example of a rational HODLing strategy read this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Exactly this, not everybody bought in at the top a few months ago. I've already withdrawn my original fiat investment, bought mining hardware, handed out paper wallets to friends and family and I've still got enough coins to put a smile on my face.

It's not a religion, it's just that many of us see and understand the potential that bitcoin has and know that it will continue, regardless of the price on the exchanges and we will continue to support it accordingly.

P.S. Thanks so much for the OP, it has given me an insight into the psychology of a panic seller, I've never quite understood them, but now I see it's probably because they only got in with the prospect of making a quick buck and have no idea about the actual protocol...

I will bookmark this, just in case if things turn ugly. It will be a good testimony about the arrogance of some people on these boards during what might will be called 'the good old days' in the future. If selling without any losses  and after thinking about it for days makes me a panic seller, then that's ok. You are entitled to define 'a panic seller' as such.

You call it no religion, yet ironically immediatly start ranting about the 'potential' of Bitcoin. Apparantly you have to be part of the club to see the 'potential' first hand. Many still don't and many probably never will. But I guess that doesn't matter: you've set your mind on this.

[Torque]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Wow, the intelligence level of this sub forum has fallen to an all time low.  I don't even know where to begin.  So now anyone in the masses that buys bitcoin is considered a religious fanatic?  I guess everyone that acquires fiat currency of one kind or another is considered a religious fanatic too?

It's very simple: the masses that acquire and want to use bitcoin simply believe that it is a BETTER form of currency than any other option they are given atm.  And yes, they believe that it is a paradigm shift in currency and what currency should be now and in the future.  What part of this simple statement don't you understand?

If you can't understand this, then what are you doing here?

[ParabellumLite]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Wow, the intelligence level of this sub forum has fallen to an all time low.  I don't even know where to begin.  So now anyone in the masses that buys bitcoin is considered a religious fanatic?  I guess everyone that acquires fiat currency of one kind or another is considered a religious fanatic too?

It's very simple: the masses that acquire and want to use bitcoin simply believe that it is a BETTER form of currency than any other option they are given atm.  And yes, they believe that it is a paradigm shift in currency and what currency should be now and in the future.  What part of this simple statement don't you understand?

If you can't understand this, then what are you doing here?

You completely rip my post out of context. First of all: I wasn't talking about 'anyone'. I know it's useful to frame me in that way, but I won't allow it.  I was talking about the people that believe that Bitcoin is some unrivaled paradigm that can't be stopped. The possiblity that it will fail seem to be pretty much non-existent to them, at least in the short them. I wonder why so many HODLers seem to ignore certain possiblities, like the chance that Bitcoin will fail. At least: that's what it looks like at the surface.

And talking about religion: if you look arounds these boards, a lot of people seem to revere Bitcoin like it's the Bible, and they believe they have this god's silver bullet to kill the current system. It's nothing less than naive idealism to assume that Bitcoin will be allowed to go around unchecked by governments. They will not allow it.

[spazzdla]

"I don't understand people that hold onto something that they view as valuable but I don't please explain"  I don't think there is ne possbility of explaining friend.

[sporket]

...
Wow, the intelligence level of this sub forum has fallen to an all time low.  I don't even know where to begin.  So now anyone in the masses that buys bitcoin is considered a religious fanatic?  I guess everyone that acquires fiat currency of one kind or another is considered a religious fanatic too?

If I had to buy my fiat in the street or depend on "exchanges" which charge me fees before absconding with all mah money, you'd have a point.  As it stands, your comparison falls a bit flat.

It's very simple: the masses that acquire and want to use bitcoin simply believe that it is a BETTER form of currency than any other option they are given atm. ...

Wat?  You're posting on a speculation forum.  We buy Bitcoin because we think the price will move.

[Asrael999]

http://expectedpayoff.com/blog/2013/03/22/bitcoin-and-the-byzantine-generals-problem/

[porcupine87]

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.

I think many bitcoiners are really emotional. But that is normal. For many writers here Bitcoin is a life-time opportunity. They see the value that Bitcoin brings. You mentioned that with no word. Fast and cheap. And because not many people are aware of that at the moment, the price is low but can 10fold or 100fold. What asset do you know which can 10 easily 10fold with a relative high expectation value? I don't see one. The stock market seems to be overvalued and interet rates are low.

But I think there are also investors which have no idea of the value of Bitcoin or don't think people will adopt it. That is ok. So they cannot understand why people hold.

Important: Every trend has a limit. Just because we are in a downtrend now, this doesn't mean we will go down to 1$ and never go back. Maybe yesterday the 340$ was the bottom. Maybe not. But if you believe in the long time value of Bitcoin and sold yesterday all of your coins at 350$ you might be more frustrated than just holding...

[podyx]

HODLing isn't a way to make money

it's a lifestyle

[Hunyadi]

HODLing isn't a way to make money

it's a lifestyle

True.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w

[magicmexican]

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Once their position turns deep into red, they all become "long term investors".
Later, they desperately sell their position near the price bottom. It's magic.

Dunno, i bought some ltc @4$ and saw it go as low as 50-70 cents, didnt bother me back then, i knew that its volatile and that my plan is to hold at least a year.

People who want quick and easy profit without "things getting too scary" should go broke and noone should feel bad for them