The psychology of a HODLer

[johnyj]

FED is printing 2.5 Billion USD per day and bitcoin is 3600 coins per day, go figure

[1714931268]

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[1714931268]

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[favelle75]

You don't actually "lose money" until you sell.  Just like stocks. The real hodlers know this. How do you think the noobs that sold at the $350 bottom this week feel?  Not as good as the true hodlers, I'll tell you that much!

[shmadz]

You don't actually "lose money" until you sell.  Just like stocks. The real hodlers know this. How do you think the noobs that sold at the $350 bottom this week feel?  Not as good as the true hodlers, I'll tell you that much!

Real hodlers are prepared for the fact that bitcoin could be worth zero tomorrow.

[Bit_Happy]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

Hodlers are lemmings who purposely misspell a word so they can feel at home with other lemmings. 

[molecular]

Hodlers are lemmings who purposely misspell a word so they can feel at home with other lemmings. 

Hodlers are toddlers on heroin? Makes sense.

[xavier]

Yup I agree with OP 100%.

Hold is not the best strategy.

Bitcoin is a religion for many, that's why it has further to go down.

Right now, bitcoin is pure speculation. It is not backed by anything. The value of bitcoin is based on speculation about the future financial system.

The changes to the world required for bitcoin to attain significant value are huge. That's what makes it a particularly high risk investment.

There is nothing religious about bitcoin. It is a high risk investment just like any other. Would you continue to hold a stock that has depreciated 60% from ATH ?

Whilst these "HODL" People are spreading their bullshit here, and whilst the religious nature of bitcoin still prevails, the bear market lives on.

[altsay]

Hodlers gonna hodl, sodlers gonna sodl.

[freebit13]

Yup I agree with OP 100%.

Hold is not the best strategy.

Bitcoin is a religion for many, that's why it has further to go down.

Right now, bitcoin is pure speculation. It is not backed by anything. The value of bitcoin is based on speculation about the future financial system.

The changes to the world required for bitcoin to attain significant value are huge. That's what makes it a particularly high risk investment.

There is nothing religious about bitcoin. It is a high risk investment just like any other. Would you continue to hold a stock that has depreciated 60% from ATH ?

Whilst these "HODL" People are spreading their bullshit here, and whilst the religious nature of bitcoin still prevails, the bear market lives on.

So, tell us then... what exactly, is gold backed by?

[koryu]

Hodlers gonna hodl, sodlers gonna sodl.

hodlers gonna daytrade ltc/xbt and are stil hodling cryptos

[knightcoin]

It's depends ...  a Commodity Trading Advisor and futures manager can have a diferrent perspective about it ..so it really doesnot matter if we trade the S&P 500 Index, rough rice, bonds, gold, bitcoin or even live hogs. They are all just futures which can be treated in exactly the same way. Now let's talk about baskets and eggs ..

Bitcoin is the future so let's think as futures managers ; but lazzy as programmers so just lets #incude some lib .h

// Quote from book "Following the Trend: Diversified Managed Futures Trading" by Andreas Clenow (5 starts )

the most widely held asset class, in particular among the general public, is equities; that is, shares of corporations trading on stock exchanges. The academic community along with most large banks and financial institutions have long told the public that buying and holding equities over long periods of time is a safe and prudent method of investing and this has created a huge market for equity mutual funds. These funds are generally seen as responsible long-term investments that always go up in the long run, and there is a good chance that even a large part of your pension plan is invested in equity mutual funds for that very reason. The ubiquitous advice from banks is that you should hold a combination of equity mutual funds and bond mutual funds and that the younger you are, the larger the weight of the equity funds should be. The reason for the last part is that, although equities do tend to go up in the long run, they are more volatile than bonds and you should take higher financial risks when you are younger since you have time to make your losses back. Furthermore, the advice is generally that you should prefer equity mutual funds over buying single stocks to make sure that you get sufficient diversification and you participate in the overall market instead of taking bets on individual companies which may run into unexpected trouble down the road.

historical data

Then again, if stocks always go up in the long run the correlations should be of lesser importance since you would always make the money back again if you just sit on the stocks and wait a little bit longer. This is absolutely true and if you are a very patient person you are very likely to make money from the stock markets by just buying and holding. From 1976 to 2011 the MSCI World Index rose by 1,300%, so in 35 years you would have made over ten times your initial investment. Of course, if you translate that into annual compound return you will see that this means a yield of just around 8% per year. If you had been so unlucky as to invest in 1999 instead, you would still hold a loss 13 years later of over 20%. Had you invested in 2007 your loss would be even greater. Although equities do tend to move up in the long run, most of us cannot afford to lose a large part of our capital and wait for a half a lifetime to get our money back. If you are lucky and invest in a good year oreven a good decade, the buy-and-hold strategy may work out but it can also turn out to be a really bumpy ride for quite a low return in the end.

So HODL .................  

[jdun]

When I used to trade Forex, I did it with the mindset of a hodler. The problem was that the trading company I was using didn't really like that mindset, especially when they were letting me trade with a 50:1 margin. They automatically closed all my trades once they lost over 50% of the account value. It's really to bad, because if I had held for year, then eventually my account would have gotten out of the red zone.

[favelle75]

You don't actually "lose money" until you sell.  Just like stocks. The real hodlers know this. How do you think the noobs that sold at the $350 bottom this week feel?  Not as good as the true hodlers, I'll tell you that much!

Real hodlers are prepared for the fact that bitcoin could be worth zero tomorrow.

I'll take that bet.

[Ivanhoe]

Hodler = someone who believes in the long term succes of bitcoin but doesn't want to trade for whatever reason.     
/closethread

[devphp]

So what if it's a religion? Religion goes a long way. People die and kill for religion. Hodling for religion is such a trifle compared to those.

[btbrae]

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in.

Oh no.  Its not a religious devotion.  Its fact-based rational confidence.  Knowing all the latest news.  Speeches at the most recent conferences.  Hours spent listening to the latest Podcasts from Lets Talk Bitcoin.  Hearing what is going on in adoption around the world.  Interviews with the people in Africa lobbying the Govt for Bitcoin assimilation.  Argentina.  Canada.  Europe. Singapore. Knowing about Bitcoin 2.0 projects.  Images on Twitter of 400 new ATMs about to go live in Dubai. Following Ben Lawsky on twitter.  Hearing the latest sales numbers from Overstock and TigerDirect.  Being the first to know about Square.  St Louis Fed Reserve rep comments.  The senator who put together the "Bitcoin is Currency" bill he planned to bring before the govt. 

Because of the obvious massive adoption and growth going on, I know that "holding" will pay off one day.  There is absolutely no reason for anyone to be cashing out yet.  None.  Doing so reflects a complete lack of awareness of what media outlets like LTB and Coinsider This are trying to convey to all of us.  

The day I get the true vibe that the infrastructure is beginning to fail, is the day I cash out.  I continue to be bewildered by the sheer volume of people on this website who have absolutely no knowledge of whats going on out there in infrastructure and adoption.  If you guys put more effort into knowing whats happening, you would have the rational confidence necessary to be a holder too.

-B-

I think you're getting a little carried away. The 400 ATMs in Dubai is not happening (http://www.coindesk.com/ded-officials-debunk-bitcoin-atm-speculation-dubai/), the lobby groups so far have been tiny or in some cases just a single person. Overstock and TigerDirect are the best of what you mention but $2-3 million is a drop in a bucket. Don't get me wrong it's all in the right direction, but people got ahead of themselves and the price is correcting to reflect the real adoption rate, which is not as fast as people were estimating. Infact, it has slowed considerably.

[Apraksin]

I bought all my coins for an average of about 80$ sometime after april last year, then took a leaf from rpietila´s strategy and sold a few at 1100$ before xmas to ensure profits, so now I have my original investment back in addition to a nice mining rig for altcoin speculation.

The rest of my BTC is my ticket to the rollercoaster, free of charge. Hodl!

[birr]

Religious:  extremely scrupulous or conscientious

I have hodled religiously since I entered the market.
But if I had been religious in the sense the word is used in this thread I might have recalled Ecclesiastes 3:2 and know there is

a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to cast away coins, and a time to gather coins together;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away

[Crikien]

First of all: I'm no hodler. I cashed out when things got a bit too scary for my taste. Second of all: I feel bad for everyone that has lost money or is on the verge of losing money. You have my sympathy.

Bitcoin is in a prominent bear market at the moment and the current exchange rate might just be a pitstop on the road downwards. What amazes me however is that so many people, people that can actually read a chart, really feel entitled to another quadruple digit rally. Wait, check that. They are sure it is going to happen. Even amidst the chaos of the last days I can still see people claiming that it will reach 10.000 dollars; some even say it will reach that number in three months already.

What I find so curious is that many HODLers here seem to have a very religious devotion to Bitcoin, despite the serious situation Bitcoin is in. Some seem to be even more devoted to their own religion of Bitcoinism than the pope is committed to the Roman Catholic Church.  I believe this to be a very dangerous attitude, given the risks involved. It wouldn't surprise me if quite a few posters on these boards are all in with all their life savings - or have even indebted themselves - and are sure shitting themselves at this moment. It might be a religious, god revering response to look up and say to yourself: 'Everything will be all right, I just know it'. They discard any possibility that some guy will come around with a new, superior protocol in as short as the next few years and just blatantly ignore the fact that Bitcoin is not alive at all among the vast majority of the population. Next to that: they probably have a good feeling that governments will not allow capital to flow unrestricted and out of their scope, but still they ignore it.

Question is why? What is it? Desperation? Total mania? Tell me. I just can't explain it anymore.

We have come full circle.  How do you feel about these comments that you made in 2014 now that Bitcoin is on the tip of every tongue, grandmother's are asking grandchildren to buy Bitcoin and the mania has clearly headed up towards a peak rather than a trough?   I'm curious as to your state of mind about a $7,000 bitcoin.

[ask]

Hodler psychology is simple and Hodlers always did the most hard thing. "Patience" is the hardest thing in life.
Hodlers have patience and they get the biggest reward and biggest gain in this game.

[Ardenoss]

There is your opinion that same with me. Government will not let's money go to internet / bitcoin much more. Optimism bitcoin holders sometimes exceeds rationality. However this is the fact, everything is going all the way to riches with bitcoin.