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Author Topic: The flipist method  (Read 13059 times)
waveaddict
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April 09, 2012, 09:31:58 PM
 #141

the charts never said that there was going to be a breakout to the upside when we were trading in the $4.9s...if anything they said exactly the opposite

This chart is one that indicated an upside breakout.

If you claim that the charts were saying the opposite at the time, you should provide evidence by sharing them publicly after-the-fact.

The wave count in that chart is impossible as drawn. There are rules in charting that cannot be broken and this chart is breaking a big one. And no, I will not share my charts publicly, even after the fact, since there is crucial information in them that will help trade into the future. Moreover, it would be extremely unfair to my subscribers if I provided free content here. I don't just merely post projections without explanations, as many do, and in order to see these explanations, you will have to subscribe like everybody else.

I was merely pointing out a flaw in your bullish comment that would otherwise turn many away from technical analysis because the market failed to go up 'as the charts indicated.' The charts were in fact warning you to sell, not buy there.

I want more people to become interested technical analysis and its predictive capability, and posting charts like the one you provided and saying that it is a valid count is just frustrating because when these predictions fail, which they will more often then not because they are inherently flawed, those who are following them become disgusted in technical analysis instead of the people who drew them. Technical analysis works, as long as you know what you are doing.

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April 10, 2012, 08:54:35 AM
 #142

The wave count in that chart is impossible as drawn. There are rules in charting that cannot be broken and this chart is breaking a big one.

There are only three rules for Elliott waves, and this count is not breaking any of them.

I was merely pointing out a flaw in your bullish comment that would otherwise turn many away from technical analysis because the market failed to go up 'as the charts indicated.' The charts were in fact warning you to sell, not buy there.

And when the 'the charts' told you to buy near $5.5 a few weeks ago, your subscribers bought right down through the 'textbook correction' to $5.18 before it fell to $4.3. I suppose that was the charts warning the market not to faithfully follow those who claim to have the ability to draw them.

Everything up until that knife down from 5.18 to 4.9 would have been part of a textbook correction, and so, I would never have called a crash there. That was the last thing that any technical analyst would advise since it was the least likely outcome based solely on the charts.

I want more people to become interested technical analysis and its predictive capability, and posting charts like the one you provided and saying that it is a valid count is just frustrating because when these predictions fail, which they will more often then not because they are inherently flawed, those who are following them become disgusted in technical analysis instead of the people who drew them. Technical analysis works, as long as you know what you are doing.

Market predictions fail because the people making them are inherently flawed. There's a harsh lesson in store for any participant who's convinced that they know what they are doing. Anyone who claims otherwise is probably trying to sell something. (and who would need to sell something if they could read charts into the future?)

Don't worry about it, I am in the same boat as a lot of you guys; over the years though, I have learned to keep a level head when unexpected things occur. This is the nature of the beast though. Corrections are violent in both directions since the whole purpose of a correction is to weed out both bulls and bears so that when the larger trend continues, nobody is left standing.

I think we're in agreement that some humility helps. Actually, its essential to market survival.

I will definitely focus more on non-Elliott Wave charting for the foreseeable future with my day to day emails since what has happened these last few days makes little to no sense from an Elliott Wave standpoint and therefore I cannot just keep following slight error after error down the rabbit's hole.

If the explanations aren't making sense, maybe try some charts based on rebuilder's coin flips? It signaled a sell in the $4.9's too..

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April 10, 2012, 09:40:13 AM
 #143

the charts never said that there was going to be a breakout to the upside when we were trading in the $4.9s...if anything they said exactly the opposite

This chart is one that indicated an upside breakout.

If you claim that the charts were saying the opposite at the time, you should provide evidence by sharing them publicly after-the-fact.

How does touching resistance indicate a breakout?

How do false breakouts indicate a breakout? It wasn't just the weekly trendline (which is being gradually pushed higher by falsy breakouts and sideways movement). The other indicators I was looking at (as an alternative to flipping a coin) were bid depth, difficulty, and OBV. OBV still neutral/bullish btw.

Best to wait for the next signal from the coin flip.

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waveaddict
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April 10, 2012, 01:52:58 PM
 #144

There are only three rules for Elliott waves, and this count is not breaking any of them.

They don't list the rule here because it is so fundamental. If you cannot figure it out then you have not followed Elliott Wave Theorem for long

And when the 'the charts' told you to buy near $5.5 a few weeks ago, your subscribers bought right down through the 'textbook correction' to $5.18 before it fell to $4.3. I suppose that was the charts warning the market not to faithfully follow those who claim to have the ability to draw them.

I specifically said that once we fell to $4.9 that the trend was down. Don't put words in my mouth. Moreover, I said to buy around $5.2 not around $5.5. Furthermore, I was never extremely bullish after we broke $5, as many others were, since I knew that we were eventually going to be headed back down according to wave rules; ask any of my subscribers. I just didn't expect the rally to be as short as it was. Also, I never said the fall to $4.9 was impossible; I merely said that what happened was extremely unexpected from a technical standpoint...not impossible. Furthermore, if you were a subscriber after that fall, you would have known that I went 'all-in' at $4.3 because of an excellent argument from looking at the charts and rode most of the wave higher along with played the correction perfectly to $4.6 and afterwards. Do not pretend to believe that I have not given my subscribers excellent advice.

Market predictions fail because the people making them are inherently flawed. There's a harsh lesson in store for any participant who's convinced that they know what they are doing. Anyone who claims otherwise is probably trying to sell something. (and who would need to sell something if they could read charts into the future?)

I can guarantee you that people who know what they are doing (because they took the time, money, and effort to learn) will be more successful than people who have not. Why do you think education is so important. Most people that subscribe to my service are very pleased since they actually learn to think for themselves and have the tools and mentality necessary to become successful at charting and trading. Ask any of my subscribers. If you don't know anything about technical analysis, you will learn pretty quickly from my service. I don't just predict...I educate.

If the explanations aren't making sense, maybe try some charts based on rebuilder's coin flips? It signaled a sell in the $4.9's too..

I told all my subscribers that I would stop trying to predict using Elliott Wave with regards to the day to day smaller wave movements. The amount of volume needed to skew these counts was nothing so there was inevitably going to be errors. But that is not to say that Elliott Wave does not work with regards to the larger picture, and, your chart is definitely a larger picture with a clear error. You can continue saying that Elliott Wave doesn't work all you want as your argument, but don't post a chart with Elliott Wave used as your justification for a breakout. Doing something like that is extremely hypocritical.

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April 10, 2012, 04:53:14 PM
 #145

the charts never said that there was going to be a breakout to the upside when we were trading in the $4.9s...if anything they said exactly the opposite

This chart is one that indicated an upside breakout.

If you claim that the charts were saying the opposite at the time, you should provide evidence by sharing them publicly after-the-fact.

How does touching resistance indicate a breakout?

How do false breakouts indicate a breakout? It wasn't just the weekly trendline (which is being gradually pushed higher by falsy breakouts and sideways movement). The other indicators I was looking at (as an alternative to flipping a coin) were bid depth, difficulty, and OBV. OBV still neutral/bullish btw.

Best to wait for the next signal from the coin flip.

Bid Depth: worthless
Difficulty: it overshot on the way down, it will overshoot on the recovery because of the delay between purchase and operation of hardware
OBV: Can't really see the bullishness you are referring to

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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April 13, 2012, 10:06:36 AM
 #146

You guys have been busy here, I see.

Action again. Time to cut my losses and liquidate the short I had.

took a loss of -$2.50 or -2.726%.   Luckily for me, there was a dip just before I liquidated... I'm holding $93.17130 currently, and going long again.

18.5 @ $4.8391

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April 15, 2012, 03:36:26 PM
 #147

That was a quickie. I liquidated again, with a profit of a whopping 0.43 USD or 0.483%. No position now.

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April 16, 2012, 10:10:57 AM
 #148

And again I'm long.
18.0 BTC @ $5.0059 (!)

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April 18, 2012, 12:47:14 PM
 #149

Taking profit:
Liquidated my long for a profit of $1.25 or 1.386%. I'm now holding onto my $94.78539 with no position.

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April 22, 2012, 05:49:57 PM
 #150

Who dares, wins! Or something.

Long again,
17.5 BTC  @ $5.2629

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April 23, 2012, 01:13:12 PM
 #151

Some more losses here:

liquidated my long, lost $2.39 , 2.590%, leaving me with $92.47598.

I'm now short 17.5 BTC @ $5.1279

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April 23, 2012, 07:22:03 PM
 #152

You kept that long for less than a day! Switching positions that quickly will bring losses from the spread more often than not.

That you decide when to open and close positions means these results are influenced by you way more than the flip of the coin. You should set some limit, like every position will be held for at least 7 days (with a stop-loss, of course).

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April 23, 2012, 07:27:28 PM
 #153

Some more losses here:

liquidated my long, lost $2.39 , 2.590%, leaving me with $92.47598.

I'm now short 17.5 BTC @ $5.1279

Buy High Sell Low!  Cheesy

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April 23, 2012, 08:45:13 PM
 #154

You kept that long for less than a day! Switching positions that quickly will bring losses from the spread more often than not.

That you decide when to open and close positions means these results are influenced by you way more than the flip of the coin. You should set some limit, like every position will be held for at least 7 days (with a stop-loss, of course).

I'm not sure what you mean by me deciding.

Perhaps it's time to reiterate the M.O. here: Every action is decided at random. My system is slightly biased towards holding whatever position I hold, if any. Every day I perform between 1 and 3 flips, depending on what the outcome of each flip is.

First flip: Action or no  action?

if "action", flip again:

2nd flip: Long or short? If I'm not holding a position at the time, I take one up. If I am holding a position already, and the flip tells me to go in the same direction, I  hold the position. If the flip tells me to go in the opposite direction, I liquidate.

if I liquidate, I go for the 3rd flip:
U-turn or no position?
This tells me to either go short if I just liquidated a long position (or vice versa), or to hold no position.

I agree that the spreads will kill me eventually, if I keep going long enough. This is, as I've said before, a losing game. It's not even particularly enlightening in the sense that backtesting will give you a good idea of what this kind of strategy is likely to lead to. Read back a bit to see what that looks like if you're interested, someone did the work already. However, I think there's something to be said for the exercise as a performance of sorts - this is more interesting than just looking at a graph of backtests, and having a running experiment gets more eyeballs. I'm trying to provide a sanity check here. Statistically, mine is a bad strategy, I think we can all agree on that. But can you beat it? Is your performance any better? If it isn't, what makes your system, if you have one, is worth a damn?

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April 24, 2012, 01:33:24 AM
 #155

Ah, thanks. Its been a while since I read your OP, and I've just been seeing the updates when you were switching or closing positions. Not daily updates of all three flips.

Anyway, lucky short! hopefully you get to close it for some profits Grin

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May 02, 2012, 07:46:15 AM
 #156

Just posting to note I'm not dead. But I am still holding on to that short, maybe my longest-held position ever?

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May 07, 2012, 10:34:56 AM
 #157

Well, that was a long short position!

Finally liquidated today, for a stunning profit of $0.86, or 0.959% and a swap of -$0.26... No position currently.

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May 08, 2012, 09:39:13 AM
 #158

Now I'm long again, 17.5 BTC @ $5.1232

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