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Author Topic: The flipist method  (Read 13035 times)
rebuilder
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February 05, 2012, 12:10:26 PM
 #81

Holding today. Long with a base price of 5.96.

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rebuilder
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February 06, 2012, 07:41:41 PM
 #82

Another day of not touching anything.

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February 07, 2012, 10:34:48 AM
 #83

Aaand today I got as far as the second flip, which told me to go long. I already am, so I'm holding.

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gewure
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February 07, 2012, 09:29:47 PM
 #84

lol

rebuilder
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February 08, 2012, 10:28:50 AM
 #85

Today it was time to liquidate my long position, losing some 5.3 USD in the process. Not going short, though.

$97.01837 is the balance now.

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February 09, 2012, 10:34:44 AM
 #86

In the face of uncertainty, the flip gives me confidence. Staunchly holding on to no position.

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rebuilder
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February 10, 2012, 01:49:25 PM
 #87

And again I'm doing nothing.
Maybe I should only post when my position changes?

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Blitz­
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February 10, 2012, 01:54:31 PM
 #88

You have been doing this for a whole month now and still have 97% of your dollars? Impressive. Especially considering that you started out when the clear bull market was over/paused.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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ineededausername
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February 10, 2012, 03:04:18 PM
 #89

You have been doing this for a whole month now and still have 97% of your dollars? Impressive. Especially considering that you started out when the clear bull market was over/paused.

I'm telling you, that coin is unnatural Shocked

(BFL)^2 < 0
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February 10, 2012, 03:13:49 PM
 #90

You have been doing this for a whole month now and still have 97% of your dollars? Impressive. Especially considering that you started out when the clear bull market was over/paused.

I'm telling you, that coin is unnatural Shocked
It's a trick! rebuilder is using a magic coin!
If you end up being profitable I suggest you auction off the coin after your experiment.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
stochastic
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February 10, 2012, 09:58:05 PM
 #91

You have been doing this for a whole month now and still have 97% of your dollars? Impressive. Especially considering that you started out when the clear bull market was over/paused.

It is not really unexpected.  If you look at my post here it is actually expected.  It is good to compare any trading method to some kind of random trading model like this.  If you decide to trade on a moving average signal and your back-testing shows you can make a butt load of money that really does not tell you much.  You need to compare it to a random trading model.  If both the technical indicator trading model and the random trading model are similar then your technical trading model is not very good.  This just means that the market is trending.

I calculated on a 6 month period between July 23 to Jan 22 that the flipist method going long would win 52.69% of the time and going short would profit 46.67% of the time.  I did it slightly different that it is listed here.  The position closes out at the end of the day.  There is also no hold toss, only buy or sell.

In this type of random trading method, the fewer times traded the more likely for big losses or gains.  The more times traded the more likely for breaking even over a long period of time.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
cheat_2_win
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February 10, 2012, 10:27:11 PM
 #92

This thread is awesome. Why didn't I find it before?
rebuilder
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February 12, 2012, 02:21:38 PM
 #93

Ok, I'm back in the game again. Short 16.5 btc @ 5.6844

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February 13, 2012, 10:35:07 PM
 #94

Ok, I'm back in the game again. Short 16.5 btc @ 5.6844

lol

works - what else
rebuilder
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February 14, 2012, 02:17:41 PM
 #95

I'm still holding. Current position:
 amt    base        P/L($)        P/L(%)
-16.5   $5.6488   $18.51   19.860%

So far, so good.

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February 15, 2012, 08:42:00 AM
 #96

Turnaround time!

Liquidated:
-16.5    $5.6488   $12.91   13.854%

13.85% profit this time! Went from rom 97.10 to 110 USD, so overall I'm up 10% over the course of this experiment. Right now, that is.

AND went long 22 BTC @ base price of 4.8667.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
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rebuilder
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February 16, 2012, 03:13:08 PM
 #97

And it's another full turn for me! Liquidated with a P/L -$13.78   -12.867%, leaving my funds at 96.197 USD.

Also went short 22 BTC at a base price of $4.2405


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joulesbeef
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moOo


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February 16, 2012, 03:29:33 PM
 #98

Quote
I tend to believe markets, like complex systems in general, are mostly chaotic and unpredictable


that is one of the main problems I have with libertarians and many people who dont understand math. Chaotic, does not equate to perfect randomness. A tree growing is chaotic, but in the end, the end result will be very tree like. If it was random, sometimes a tree would look like a bear. The only thing chaotic math says is that your answers will be in probabilities rather than exact numbers. THAT DOES NOT MAKE IT UNPREDICTABLE, just less exact.

Think of it this way.  The normal non libertarian weather man, gives us weather reports. He gives us the probability it will rain based on what happened the last time conditions where this way. It does mean he is never officially wrong. But generally speaking if he says there is an 80% chance of rain, it most likely will rain that day.

with your totally random method.. say flipping a coin, you are going to be wrong about half the time, way way way way way worse than the weather man and his chaotic system.


it drives me absolutely nuts to read milton or mises and listen to them claim that chaos is totally unpredictable and as such totally useless in economics. Do they not grab a fucking umbrella when the weather man says 80% chance of rain? why the fuck do they think he gives percentages? Chaotic math is not the every day math we are used to, just like realitivity described a time we are not used to in our every day non light speed traveling lives. That doesnt make chaotic math wrong or useless or equated with randomness.

mooo for rent
realnowhereman
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February 16, 2012, 04:08:12 PM
 #99

Chaos math is not primarily to do with randomness, in fact chaotic systems run in a clockwork universe (for our purposes).

It is more that a chaotic system has a large change in output for a terribly small change in input. In the real world we cannot measure these inputs with infinite precision making the output unpredictable.

Markets are chaotic because there is no way to know all the actors and their motivations. We cannot predict that tomorrow a bitcoin proponent will win the lottery and pump a load of advertising into the world.

Equally... some large player with 50k coins could have his finger over the mouse button right now and reading this post distracts him for 30 seconds, long enough for the phone to ring and him to leave his desk. Small input large output.

Mathematical chaos is not literary chaos.

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notme
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February 16, 2012, 05:24:23 PM
 #100

Chaos math is not primarily to do with randomness, in fact chaotic systems run in a clockwork universe (for our purposes).

It is more that a chaotic system has a large change in output for a terribly small change in input. In the real world we cannot measure these inputs with infinite precision making the output unpredictable.

Markets are chaotic because there is no way to know all the actors and their motivations. We cannot predict that tomorrow a bitcoin proponent will win the lottery and pump a load of advertising into the world.

Equally... some large player with 50k coins could have his finger over the mouse button right now and reading this post distracts him for 30 seconds, long enough for the phone to ring and him to leave his desk. Small input large output.

Mathematical chaos is not literary chaos.

+1

Also @joulesbeef... why are you bringing libertarians into this.  Misunderstanding math is not politically discriminatory.  Also, you don't understand chaotic math as well as realnowhereman. Your point about patterns is valid, but that's more fractal related.  To your credit, these two subjects are often studied together because they are analyzed with similar tools, and sometimes appear together.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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