Bitcoin Forum
December 03, 2016, 01:47:40 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: The flipist method  (Read 13027 times)
realnowhereman
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504



View Profile
January 11, 2012, 11:20:04 AM
 #41

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dice_Man

"The Dice Man is a novel published in 1971 by George Cockcroft under the pen name Luke Rhinehart and tells the story of a psychiatrist who begins making life decisions based on the casting of dice."

1AAZ4xBHbiCr96nsZJ8jtPkSzsg1CqhwDa
1480772860
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772860

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772860
Reply with quote  #2

1480772860
Report to moderator
1480772860
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772860

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772860
Reply with quote  #2

1480772860
Report to moderator
There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. Header-only clients like MultiBit trust that the majority of mining power is honest for the purposes of enforcing network rules such as the 21 million BTC limit. Full clients do not trust miners in this way.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480772860
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772860

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772860
Reply with quote  #2

1480772860
Report to moderator
Otoh
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918



View Profile
January 11, 2012, 12:41:23 PM
 #42

The coin is bullish! First flip: 1 - act! 2nd flip: 1: buy!. So since I'm already long, I hold my position.



This leaves an unrealized net value of 103.85 USD currently.

shouldn't you be buying more that time, doubling your position or adding another $10 long or something

Node40.com is a leader in DASH hosting, dedicated exclusively to fully managed masternode hosting. Professional, organized, and responsive. I have many dozens of nodes with them.    
BTC = $c²     BTC = 1otohotohMoQoxHuxLBveQiZcV3Pji3Tc      DASH, Digital Cash = www.dash.org   
   CHARITY | MY REP | DICE
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 11, 2012, 12:44:55 PM
 #43

Without leverage I can't really double up if I'm already mostly all in. I guess I could have bought 1 coin more or so.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
Otoh
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918



View Profile
January 11, 2012, 12:53:49 PM
 #44

ah yes I see, I'd forgotten that you weren't using leverage, that also could be a flip option for 1:1, 2.5, 5 or 10 x

Node40.com is a leader in DASH hosting, dedicated exclusively to fully managed masternode hosting. Professional, organized, and responsive. I have many dozens of nodes with them.    
BTC = $c²     BTC = 1otohotohMoQoxHuxLBveQiZcV3Pji3Tc      DASH, Digital Cash = www.dash.org   
   CHARITY | MY REP | DICE
Mageant
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1079



View Profile WWW
January 11, 2012, 06:30:45 PM
 #45

I think it's best you stay at 1:1 so the test lasts longer.

  ►  NEW ECONOMY MOVEMENT  ◄ 
  100% built from scratch • revolutionary forging mechanism • fairly distributed

BIETCOIN.DE - Kleinanzeigenmarkt für Bitcoin
notme
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1526


View Profile
January 11, 2012, 06:37:11 PM
 #46

I think it's best you stay at 1:1 so the test lasts longer.

Yes, that way you're sure to lose.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 12, 2012, 12:32:48 PM
 #47

Well, the first flip today was 2, so I do nothing. Just as well, as Bitcoinica seems to be having some issues... It's showing a buy price of 6.39 and a sell of 6.25, which is way off the mt gox charts. Not that I'd mind buying at that price but it's just a glitch as far as I can tell.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 13, 2012, 12:18:49 PM
 #48

Oh yea, I should update here. Not much to show, it's a bullish day again, according to the flip, so I'm keeping long. Unrealized profits around 1.5%.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 14, 2012, 10:36:28 AM
 #49

Again the first flip is 1 for act, the second 1 for Bullish. So I'm sticking with my BTC, currently holding 15.0 BTC at a base price of $6.4299, unrealized loss of 0.155%. I sure hope the price doesn't drop below 0.12 or so or I get zhoutonged... Wink

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 15, 2012, 08:36:29 PM
 #50

Today's first flip said to hold off from doing anything, so I stayed long. Looks like that bullishness was justified, with the exchange rate up to 6.9 or thereabouts, the profits are now a solid 7%. Unrealized, of course...

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 16, 2012, 04:08:45 PM
 #51

Got to the second flip this time, which said to hold long. So still bullish, in the face of turbulence. P/L currently 2.522% in the green.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 17, 2012, 09:04:39 AM
 #52

Well, folks, we live in uncertain times. The flips told me to sell, so I did. I also did an extra flip to see whether to short or not, but the god of the coin says wait and see. So I have no position today, and my holdings are now 103.55918 USD.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
piramida
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 994



View Profile
January 18, 2012, 07:35:05 AM
 #53

does look like a coin is smarter than most analytics in this market Smiley

i am satoshi
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728


View Profile
January 18, 2012, 07:50:18 AM
 #54

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dice_Man

"The Dice Man is a novel published in 1971 by George Cockcroft under the pen name Luke Rhinehart and tells the story of a psychiatrist who begins making life decisions based on the casting of dice."


This is a good idea. I will read this. It would be better if you could get a squirrel to roll the dice for you though.

(Yes, they will pick up dice and drop them if you don't scare them off... I was walking around with dice in my pocket one time)
stochastic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532


View Profile
January 18, 2012, 08:17:37 AM
 #55

I'm thinking of starting a trading experiment based on randomness. I tend to believe markets, like complex systems in general, are mostly chaotic and unpredictable. If this is true, then a random trading strategy should be as good as any. So, I figure it's time to put to practice an idea I've considered, as dictated by fine, ancient Persian customs, both sober (earlier) and inebriated (now): Starting 7th January 2012, 10 AM GMT, I intend to start a trading account, fund it with, say, 100 dollars (dollars to keep better protected from BTC volatility, 100 to make it a bit more interesting), and choose, by flipping a coin, every 24 hours whether to buy or sell. If I hold BTC and the coin says sell, I'll sell, if it says buy, I'll hold on, and vice versa.

I'd like input on a few things, keeping in mind I'm obviously willing to take total loss on my investment here:

-Is there any difference to starting an account on Bitcoinica or Mt. Gox, given that I intend to take a very low risk profile to prevent some sudden zhoutonging from mucking up the experiment. Currently I'm leaning towards simply making a new Gox account, but having a 1:1 Bitcoinica account would let me just take a screenshot of the current net value every day.

-How much should I trade with? I guess without leverage I may as well go all in, simply trading my entire balance at a time either way, as dictated by the coin toss.

-Apart from "this is a tremendously bad idea", is there anything I'm not considering here?

You need to account for time of the day.  Randomize that as well.  Also, I would use multiple coins.  If you want historical data pm me.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 18, 2012, 02:10:01 PM
 #56

The coin says we're still in turbulent waters: It's a "do nothing" day, so I'm standing at the sidelines, watching the action.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 18, 2012, 02:11:20 PM
 #57

You need to account for time of the day.  Randomize that as well.  Also, I would use multiple coins.  If you want historical data pm me.

I'll look into randomizing the time for trading if I get around to figuring out how to use Bitcoinica's API and automate this trading.

What do you mean by multiple coins?

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
ineededausername
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784


bitcoin hundred-aire


View Profile
January 18, 2012, 02:30:26 PM
 #58

that coin is smart!  Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
stochastic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532


View Profile
January 18, 2012, 06:26:53 PM
 #59

You need to account for time of the day.  Randomize that as well.  Also, I would use multiple coins.  If you want historical data pm me.

I'll look into randomizing the time for trading if I get around to figuring out how to use Bitcoinica's API and automate this trading.

What do you mean by multiple coins?

The coin you use could be biased.  Maybe part of the coin is worn down leaving one side heavier than the other.  To truly test for stochasticity there should also be 1000 people tossing the coin.  I will run a simulation within the week and post my results here.

Basically what I will do is take 5 dice using random.org's algorithm.  If 3 out of 5 of the dice are even numbers then that is buy bitcoins with USD, if 3 out of the 5 dice are odd then sell bitcoins for USD.  If a buy position is already set then further buys will be a hold position.  If a sell position is already set then further sells will be a hold position.

Keep up the experiment.  I love stochastic processes.  It is what I work on in my day job.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
January 19, 2012, 07:08:47 PM
 #60

Oh yes. Almost forgot to update. Seems we're in bull mode now, so I bought 15 BTC on Bitcoinica @ 6.2(ish).

I'm considering moving my trading to Gox or something, though, I had a hell of a time getting the buy to even go through today thanks to the lack of reserve. I'll reimburse Zhou's 25 bucks if I do that, of course.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!