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Author Topic: The flipist method  (Read 13048 times)
rebuilder
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January 20, 2012, 10:40:12 AM
 #61




Nothing doing today. It's a bull market... At least according to random choice.

I may not be able to perform these trades this weekend, will have to see.

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ineededausername
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January 20, 2012, 02:08:36 PM
 #62

i'm calling bs... this coin is right more frequently than anyone else Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
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January 20, 2012, 09:41:13 PM
 #63

this coin is obviously the manipulator just toying with us all - for a heads up  Grin

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January 21, 2012, 08:33:08 AM
 #64

i'm calling bs... this coin is right more frequently than anyone else Grin

I ran two simulations over the mtgoxUSD price from Jan 1, 2011 to Dec, 31 2011.  One simulation gave me a rate of return of about 100%, another gave me a rate of about -300%.  When I get some more time I will bootstrap this model to get a better estimate.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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January 24, 2012, 10:57:57 AM
 #65

OK. Back to trading now that I'm at a computer again. The flips today had me liquidate my long position at a profit of 0.456%, but told me not to go short. Back to uncertaintyville then!

My balance now:103.98USD

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January 25, 2012, 11:36:59 AM
 #66

The flip says to hold off from doing anything today, I guess that means the sideways movement will continue!

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January 25, 2012, 11:57:22 PM
 #67

LOLO

i only read the first post, but: this is madness! Cheesy I LIKE IT!
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January 26, 2012, 12:41:08 AM
 #68

Again, there's no fucking way this is a coin...
Hey if you want to sell me that coin, that'd be great Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
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January 26, 2012, 12:51:01 AM
 #69

Why am I not subscribed to this thread yet? I love it Smiley

rebuilder
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January 26, 2012, 10:40:12 AM
 #70

Technically, it's not a coin. To be clear, I'm using random.org to generate a number between 1 and 2 to decide what to do.

Today, it's another 2, so I'm still holding. Yesterday was neutral, it seems - the numbers said to hold at no position, but didn't say to short, so I didn't take any losses, but neither did I profit. Perhaps the subatomic particles aren't pleased enough with me yet, but they don't seem terribly displeased, either.

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January 27, 2012, 11:04:40 AM
 #71

And again, I am doing nothing today, as much as my fingers itch to press a button... Not that I know which one I'd press, but fortunately I don't have to worry about that kind of thing!

I guess this means the price will go down. Or up. Or maybe it'll stay about the same for the next 24 hours.

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January 28, 2012, 11:20:19 AM
 #72

And the third 2 in a row! Maybe I should start taking bets on the results of the flip...

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January 29, 2012, 08:42:21 AM
 #73

Aand I'm in again!

BTCUSD    18.0    $5.6715    -$1.79    -1.752%

Long! Going up guys!

Or maybe the powers of randomness are displeased with me. We shall see! I'll now go do something random to gain favour.

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January 29, 2012, 09:09:05 AM
 #74

Aand I'm in again!

BTCUSD    18.0    $5.6715    -$1.79    -1.752%

Long! Going up guys!

Or maybe the powers of randomness are displeased with me. We shall see! I'll now go do something random to gain favour.

You win (kinda). According to my calculations here, a flipist method that closes its position out at the daily close versus a trading strategy that uses the EMA10/21 crossover and closes its position at the daily close loses only $4.0892 compared to $-45.00281.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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January 30, 2012, 10:35:17 AM
 #75

Today I do nothing!
Here's where we're at currently:

BTCUSD   18.0   $5.6715   -$2.27   -2.224%


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January 30, 2012, 10:37:05 AM
 #76

You win (kinda). According to my calculations here, a flipist method that closes its position out at the daily close versus a trading strategy that uses the EMA10/21 crossover and closes its position at the daily close loses only $4.0892 compared to $-45.00281.


Interesting. I seem to recall Goomboo posting the results of backtesting they'd done for the 10/21 EMA crossover method, with rather phenomenal profits. Have to go take a look to see why the difference is so huge to your test.

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January 30, 2012, 12:32:14 PM
 #77

You win (kinda). According to my calculations here, a flipist method that closes its position out at the daily close versus a trading strategy that uses the EMA10/21 crossover and closes its position at the daily close loses only $4.0892 compared to $-45.00281.


Interesting. I seem to recall Goomboo posting the results of backtesting they'd done for the 10/21 EMA crossover method, with rather phenomenal profits. Have to go take a look to see why the difference is so huge to your test.

If I am doing it correctly then it is probably that people are a little more selective.  It looked like they used hourly time scales but I may be wrong.  On daily time scales the EMA10 and 21 only crossed once for the six month period I looked at.  For hourly data there was enough crosses to go short 82 times and long 82 times.  My model also assumes that the position was liquidated at the end of the trading day.  Most currency traders are not going to wait to take their profit when a sell signal is given.  By that time they have lost their unrealized profits.  They will have a stops to take their profits.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
rebuilder
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February 01, 2012, 10:39:30 AM
 #78

Whoops, I forgot to update yesterday. It was another hold day.

Today, however, I'm liquidating my long position, at a loss.

My position just before liquidation:
BTCUSD   18.0   $5.6715   -$1.60   -1.563%

My account status currently:
USD   $102.38714

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February 02, 2012, 10:41:52 AM
 #79

Well! Interesting times, huh?

My method tells me to do nothing today. I'm calling this spike up a trap!


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February 04, 2012, 09:42:29 AM
 #80

Damn, another missed update. I did flip though, and did nothing due to the result. Today, however, I'm going long!

At least I will if I can buy on Bitcoinica... * all the way!

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