2014 USD/mBTC Price Prediction Contest

[dnaleor]

it seems like the list with orange numbers is too long (too much rows)

[wachtwoord]

Why is sgbett still in the competition at all if he hasn't submitted anything for 2 rounds? Shouldn't that in itself lead to disqualification?

No. The rules allow for this. He just gets zero points for those rounds. (He also has several submissions from the earlier rounds that are scored normally even if new ones are not submitted.)

Ah. I should have done that then (only submit the first round). I didn't get that from the rules.

[Foxpup]

When I said I wanted orange numbers, I meant all the orange numbers. We need the orange numbers for the last four months of all the previous rounds, since contestants dropping out means their original predictions no longer count.

[rpietila]

When I said I wanted orange numbers, I meant all the orange numbers. We need the orange numbers for the last four months of all the previous rounds, since contestants dropping out means their original predictions no longer count.

We have now 6 entries in the game.
- 15 months that are evaluated.
- 15 predictions outstanding (of whose orange numbers you want?)
- 6 predictions yet to come, 3 of which the deadline is today

[Foxpup]

- 15 predictions outstanding (of whose orange numbers you want?)

What? No, I want orange numbers from the last four months of all predictions. Take the first row of the orange numbers from Round 1:

0.0099%   0.0122%   0.0141%   0.0158%   0.0173%   0.0187%   0.0474%   0.0503%

The highlighted numbers are now invalid, because they are based on predictions from players no longer in the game, as stated in the rules:

Actually, the points are not fully deterministic, because the initial formula supposes that all the entries are still in competition at the time of scoring. If eg. a 6-month long prediction by player A is included in the averages upon submission, but player A is disqualified from competition before the maturity of the prediction, that prediction does not take part in the counting of the final averages for the scoring, which (slightly) alters the average and, therefore, the scores of other entrants.

Likewise for every round of predictions.

Actually, on closer inspection, it looks like you didn't take this into account in determining the scores for this round. Or are we retroactively changing the rules to make your work easier?

[rpietila]

- 15 predictions outstanding (of whose orange numbers you want?)

What? No, I want orange numbers from the last four months of all predictions. Take the first row of the orange numbers from Round 1:

0.0099%   0.0122%   0.0141%   0.0158%   0.0173%   0.0187%   0.0474%   0.0503%

The highlighted numbers are now invalid, because they are based on predictions from players no longer in the game, as stated in the rules:

Actually, the points are not fully deterministic, because the initial formula supposes that all the entries are still in competition at the time of scoring. If eg. a 6-month long prediction by player A is included in the averages upon submission, but player A is disqualified from competition before the maturity of the prediction, that prediction does not take part in the counting of the final averages for the scoring, which (slightly) alters the average and, therefore, the scores of other entrants.

Likewise for every round of predictions.

Actually, on closer inspection, it looks like you didn't take this into account in determining the scores for this round. Or are we retroactively changing the rules to make your work easier?

I made the adjustment to the "new rounds" (so that the disqualified players do not disturb the scores of rounds started after their disqualification).

I see your point in that it would be nicer to you to have all previous and future scores recalculated once someone drops from the game. We are not changing the rules to cement the scores, but I also don't feel like recalculating them every time. Since the rules stipulate only the final scores, it feels permissible to me that the exact scores will be determined only after the contest has ended, according to the rules. Would this be OK for you?

[Foxpup]

Since the rules stipulate only the final scores, it feels permissible to me that the exact scores will be determined only after the contest has ended, according to the rules. Would this be OK for you?

I suppose so, though that does run the risk of someone being eliminated when they shouldn't have been or vice versa. I sense that when you started this contest you didn't quite understand how much effort would actually be required, is that right?

[dnaleor]

Since the rules stipulate only the final scores, it feels permissible to me that the exact scores will be determined only after the contest has ended, according to the rules. Would this be OK for you?

I suppose so, though that does run the risk of someone being eliminated when they shouldn't have been or vice versa. I sense that when you started this contest you didn't quite understand how much effort would actually be required, is that right?

free bitcoins for everyone :p

seriously, I appreciate the effort of Risto. It's a lot of work to organize this.

[rpietila]

Amount of effort is not really bigger than anticipated. The thing that I personally do it is very much not what I wanted. 

But let's keep it going 

[wachtwoord]

Since the rules stipulate only the final scores, it feels permissible to me that the exact scores will be determined only after the contest has ended, according to the rules. Would this be OK for you?

I suppose so, though that does run the risk of someone being eliminated when they shouldn't have been or vice versa. I sense that when you started this contest you didn't quite understand how much effort would actually be required, is that right?

free bitcoins for everyone :p

seriously, I appreciate the effort of Risto. It's a lot of work to organize this.

That and the fact that so few people participated makes me feel this is the one and only time Risto will do this. Maybe if there is a next time make the time horizon shorter OR just make a prediction for very far out without additional predictions (such as only the first prediction in this contest).

[rpietila]

Since the rules stipulate only the final scores, it feels permissible to me that the exact scores will be determined only after the contest has ended, according to the rules. Would this be OK for you?

I suppose so, though that does run the risk of someone being eliminated when they shouldn't have been or vice versa. I sense that when you started this contest you didn't quite understand how much effort would actually be required, is that right?

free bitcoins for everyone :p

seriously, I appreciate the effort of Risto. It's a lot of work to organize this.

That and the fact that so few people participated makes me feel this is the one and only time Risto will do this. Maybe if there is a next time make the time horizon shorter OR just make a prediction for very far out without additional predictions (such as only the first prediction in this contest).

Repeat - only problem is that I am now doing manual work that was never the idea. Yes, it's what all great leaders do when they fail in organizing something. No, reminding about it constantly is not fun.

Probably the mixed success of this one is not boding well for next year's contest. I will likely start a thread in December nevertheless.

[wachtwoord]

Since the rules stipulate only the final scores, it feels permissible to me that the exact scores will be determined only after the contest has ended, according to the rules. Would this be OK for you?

I suppose so, though that does run the risk of someone being eliminated when they shouldn't have been or vice versa. I sense that when you started this contest you didn't quite understand how much effort would actually be required, is that right?

free bitcoins for everyone :p

seriously, I appreciate the effort of Risto. It's a lot of work to organize this.

That and the fact that so few people participated makes me feel this is the one and only time Risto will do this. Maybe if there is a next time make the time horizon shorter OR just make a prediction for very far out without additional predictions (such as only the first prediction in this contest).

Repeat - only problem is that I am now doing manual work that was never the idea. Yes, it's what all great leaders do when they fail in organizing something. No, reminding about it constantly is not fun.

Probably the mixed success of this one is not boding well for next year's contest. I will likely start a thread in December nevertheless.

Props on not throwing the towel

[Foxpup]

Prediction sent.

[bluemoon]

Bluemoon is knocked out with a very large negative score, whoops!

I'd like to thank Risto for running this unusual and complex competition, with thanks also to everyone else who took the trouble to be involved.

Congratulations to the remaining competitors: I hope you all see it through to the end!

Now I shall retire to mind my battered bitcoin ...

[dnaleor]

Prediction sent.

i also send mine just before the dealine. But I think some early predictions will knock me out in the next month(s) unless BTC goes back to >600

[Foxpup]

But I think some early predictions will knock me out in the next month(s) unless BTC goes back to >600

I warned you about those predictions.

[sgbett]

Why is sgbett still in the competition at all if he hasn't submitted anything for 2 rounds? Shouldn't that in itself lead to disqualification?

time spent crafting submissions vs prize money - sorry to be so cold

I know there is very little I could do to increase my chances of winning. So I prefer to just watch and let fate take its toll.

if you guys all want me to enter I will, but bear in mind it just reduces the chance of you winning

[rpietila]

Meanwhile we can start a discussion about what kind of game we want to have for next year?

There was very much interest in the beginning of this thread for a simpler game.

[Foxpup]

Bumping to start a discussion about what kind of numbers we want to have. I want orange ones. Preferably before next year.

[Foxpup]

Am I being unreasonable or just optimistic?