sgbett
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 06, 2014, 09:09:46 PM |
|
My phone sent me a message today, taunting me "Orange is the new black Season 2 on Netflix now!" ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
|
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
|
|
|
dnaleor
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 06, 2014, 10:03:28 PM |
|
Also very excited to know how high the price needs to be to get my max points again ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) But don't worry, I fully understand that technical problems can happen, I can wait... (I don't have the money to influcence the exchange rate to be in the exact spot anyway) ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
|
|
|
|
sgbett
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 01:21:51 PM |
|
hello. is all ok? my loins yearn for orange numbers ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
|
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 07:20:38 PM |
|
hello. is all ok? my loins yearn for orange numbers ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) lol, I'm rooting for prices going up anyway. I can do that without knowing how much my score will suffer exactly ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
|
|
|
|
rpietila (OP)
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 07:21:06 PM |
|
The second prediction round results are here!We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 7 months (price in last day of June, July, ... December). The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows: Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the predictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally a rather high figure, even for the nearest months. Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average. Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case". Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well. Months go from June to December. m BTC, decimal comma. I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants. arith ave 5,77 6,67 7,47 8,19 8,74 9,82 10,87 geom ave 0,95 1,15 1,35 1,59 1,62 3,08 4,45 median 0,75 0,84 0,94 1,06 1,06 1,19 1,33 mode 0,75 0,84 1,06 1,06 1,19 1,50 1,50
|
HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 07:26:50 PM |
|
No new contestants joined then. Interesting.
|
|
|
|
rpietila (OP)
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 07:36:28 PM |
|
No new contestants joined then. Interesting.
I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?
|
HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
|
|
|
sgbett
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 07:45:52 PM |
|
|
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:00:22 PM |
|
No new contestants joined then. Interesting.
I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we? I want to be out by then! This contest is the cheapest hedge I ever bought ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
|
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:03:25 PM |
|
If we stay under $1k in June I'll reach round 3 at least ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
|
|
|
|
dnaleor
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:08:19 PM |
|
Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?
I'll do a bump in my prediction game for your game ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
|
|
|
|
Benjig
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:13:46 PM |
|
Se if there would be a new contest for the price of december i would say 1mBTC/ 10 USD
|
|
|
|
sgbett
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:17:45 PM |
|
No new contestants joined then. Interesting.
I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) ) Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we? I want to be out by then! This contest is the cheapest hedge I ever bought ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) excellent strategy ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
|
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
|
|
|
dnaleor
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:18:35 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
sgbett
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:26:15 PM |
|
this months chart is getting complicated, gotta factor in last months predictions too!
|
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
|
|
|
sgbett
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:37:10 PM |
|
I think... ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F3r5nSrbl.png&t=665&c=VPGW4Q2Dhxo4sA) ... really banking on the next bull run ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto*my posts are not investment advice*
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:43:23 PM |
|
And red is positive?
|
|
|
|
dnaleor
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:46:49 PM |
|
The TOTAL points for my 2 predictions: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZcikkIH.png&t=665&c=8lhHcGYDh8cgYg) Positive points when exchange rate in interval [199,53 ; 2511,89] or below 12,59 Max points: 12.1 when exchange rate in interval [1000 ; 1122,02] Eliminated when exchange rate in interval [12,59 ; 199,53] or above 2818,38 edit: I think I have a fair chance to get positive points ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
|
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:48:45 PM |
|
You're playing it safe I see ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
|
|
|
dnaleor
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 10, 2014, 08:56:17 PM |
|
... really banking on the next bull run ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I don't mind losing if the exchange rate goes too high ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
|
|
|
|
|