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Author Topic: the insurmountable wall  (Read 2196 times)
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 12, 2012, 02:34:10 PM
 #1

we've been testing the resistance at $7.20 for quite some time now. and as i type this message, we are slipping into another downtrend. have we reached the top? i was very bullish when we had the upward momentum but the indicators turned sour today. i got out before the slip, but don't know when to buy back in. are we looking at a reversal or just another short-term correction?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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January 12, 2012, 02:43:52 PM
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we've been testing the resistance at $7.20 for quite some time now. and as i type this message, we are slipping into another downtrend. have we reached the top? i was very bullish when we had the upward momentum but the indicators turned sour today. i got out before the slip, but don't know when to buy back in. are we looking at a reversal or just another short-term correction?
The problem is that it was all levereged.  bitcoinica frequently shows * at the buy button, even now after the fist sell offs (at least after mine sell off), they used all their USDs and now you cannot buyBTC using bitcoinica.  The trend lost momentum.  Deleveraging will probably generate much momentum in the opposite direction - by forced liquidations, but who knows.
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January 12, 2012, 04:23:39 PM
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My sells are not leveraged, I can tell you that. And I still got half my ammo. If this was all the echo, I'm hardly impressed.

But what the heck is happening on the market short-term? Especially buyers are acting as if they are crazy, spiking like madmen in a downtrend that hardly is in panic mode yet. These are the times I regret not having the mobile trading API enabled for my account. No matter which way the price will go, these people are totally burning money just through the pointless super-fast volatility.

Paradise for the high-frequency dampening bots. Someone is probably making a fortune, apart from Gox and Bitcoinica.

I don't know what to make of it. If there is some sane reason for this, e.g. getting volume through, we might see another rise yet. If it's just insanity... lol in that case, you guys better prepare for another round of busting.
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January 12, 2012, 04:43:10 PM
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My sells are not leveraged, I can tell you that. And I still got half my ammo. If this was all the echo, I'm hardly impressed.

But what the heck is happening on the market short-term? Especially buyers are acting as if they are crazy, spiking like madmen in a downtrend that hardly is in panic mode yet. These are the times I regret not having the mobile trading API enabled for my account. No matter which way the price will go, these people are totally burning money just through the pointless super-fast volatility.

Paradise for the high-frequency dampening bots. Someone is probably making a fortune, apart from Gox and Bitcoinica.

I don't know what to make of it. If there is some sane reason for this, e.g. getting volume through, we might see another rise yet. If it's just insanity... lol in that case, you guys better prepare for another round of busting.

I'm not sure what to make of this either.  It's very strange.  bitcoincharts makes it look as though there a ton of selling going on, but it's really the other way around.  There's a lot of stealth buying - a surprising amount.  Makes me wonder if somebody knows something we don't.
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January 12, 2012, 04:57:20 PM
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I'm not sure what to make of this either.  It's very strange.  bitcoincharts makes it look as though there a ton of selling going on, but it's really the other way around.  There's a lot of stealth buying - a surprising amount.  Makes me wonder if somebody knows something we don't.

Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense logically. Every trade is buying and selling, the question is just how erratic the movements are at execution, and at what price it is executed at.

But I wonder the same thing about the sudden up-spikes. Are they caused by Bitcoinica, a madman, or an insider? The latter would have to be VERY certain, because he could get a better price by reducing his volume a little, so I rather tend to explain this with some kind of insanity.
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January 12, 2012, 04:58:15 PM
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it's funny that if we don't go up it is assumed we must go down. how about staying where we are at - not an option?
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January 12, 2012, 05:12:45 PM
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I'm not sure what to make of this either.  It's very strange.  bitcoincharts makes it look as though there a ton of selling going on, but it's really the other way around.  There's a lot of stealth buying - a surprising amount.  Makes me wonder if somebody knows something we don't.

Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense logically. Every trade is buying and selling, the question is just how erratic the movements are at execution, and at what price it is executed at.

What I mean is that the price is overall trending down, but there are more and higher volume buys up into the asks than there are down into the bids.  The bid depth was shallower than the ask depth and so smaller volume sells into the bids moved the price further and in that direction despite lots of larger volume buys up into the asks.
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January 12, 2012, 05:34:04 PM
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it's funny that if we don't go up it is assumed we must go down. how about staying where we are at - not an option?

This isn't the same as the situation around 3 or 4. Back then, the market was stabilizing, day-traders taking over increasingly. Right now, well, I have no clue, what do you see in it? Doesn't look sane or stable or anything right now. Maybe that will change, we'll see.

Uh, that doesn't make a lot of sense logically. Every trade is buying and selling, the question is just how erratic the movements are at execution, and at what price it is executed at.

What I mean is that the price is overall trending down, but there are more and higher volume buys up into the asks than there are down into the bids. The bid depth was shallower than the ask depth and so smaller volume sells into the bids moved the price further and in that direction despite lots of larger volume buys up into the asks.

Yea, the movements are very strange. Some people are making untypical decisions in there, and they all seem to be in a hurry.
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January 12, 2012, 05:37:22 PM
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Weird market at the moment, I got out pre-crash earlier but am happy to buy back in, but my worry is nothing has changed, the resistance to 7 is going to again be exceptionally strong Undecided
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January 12, 2012, 05:45:39 PM
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...my worry is nothing has changed, the resistance to 7 is going to again be exceptionally strong Undecided

Worry? On December 19th, the rates were around 3.2 USD to the coin. That there's resistance now is a sign the market is showing at least some signs of sanity, that's not a bad thing. Remember, easy come, easy go.

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January 12, 2012, 05:50:03 PM
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...my worry is nothing has changed, the resistance to 7 is going to again be exceptionally strong Undecided

Worry? On December 19th, the rates were around 3.2 USD to the coin. That there's resistance now is a sign the market is showing at least some signs of sanity, that's not a bad thing. Remember, easy come, easy go.

Yeah good call, I still have my 'reserve' stash of 50BTC, at least in this position I can sleep easily  Grin
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January 12, 2012, 05:53:41 PM
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it's funny that if we don't go up it is assumed we must go down. how about staying where we are at - not an option?

This isn't the same as the situation around 3 or 4. Back then, the market was stabilizing, day-traders taking over increasingly. Right now, well, I have no clue, what do you see in it? Doesn't look sane or stable or anything right now. Maybe that will change, we'll see.
....
Yea, the movements are very strange. Some people are making untypical decisions in there, and they all seem to be in a hurry.

all this week i sow market trading more maturely, no panic runs in either direction which is great in terms of stability
market is much cautious now unlike last year where it was very emotional and trigger happy.
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January 12, 2012, 06:45:34 PM
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remember there few bears to clear they short positions you will need  other bulls to help you Smiley







SMA 10 is about to cross SMA 25. This is the death cross. I wouldn't go long and sell right now or around 7 and buy back around 6 then 5.80 then 5.50.
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January 12, 2012, 07:13:49 PM
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Yea, the movements are very strange. Some people are making untypical decisions in there, and they all seem to be in a hurry.

As far as the seemingly impatient falls, I figure is that someone - perhaps a vendor? - has placed a huge sell order at $1 with no btc in MtGox account, and whenever new bitcoins arrive, they are immediately sold, regardless of market depth charts.  In fact, I would expect this to be a usual setup for vendors who just want their USD and don't care about speculating.

As far as the sharp rises, my best guess is that someone wants to buy lots of BTC, and has seen that huge buys aren't the most economical way to buy into BTC.  So, they had someone make a bot that buys a random amount at random intervals, against disregarding the market depth.

Pure speculation, Occam's Razor style, but it makes more sense to me than thinking player(s) are being irrational.
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January 12, 2012, 07:33:04 PM
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Yea, the movements are very strange. Some people are making untypical decisions in there, and they all seem to be in a hurry.

As far as the seemingly impatient falls, I figure is that someone - perhaps a vendor? - has placed a huge sell order at $1 with no btc in MtGox account, and whenever new bitcoins arrive, they are immediately sold, regardless of market depth charts.  In fact, I would expect this to be a usual setup for vendors who just want their USD and don't care about speculating.

As far as the sharp rises, my best guess is that someone wants to buy lots of BTC, and has seen that huge buys aren't the most economical way to buy into BTC.  So, they had someone make a bot that buys a random amount at random intervals, against disregarding the market depth.

Pure speculation, Occam's Razor style, but it makes more sense to me than thinking player(s) are being irrational.


perhaps Tom Williams as another thread reports recent movements of long dormant BTC from old Mybitcoin addresses there

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Serge
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January 12, 2012, 08:17:06 PM
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As far as the seemingly impatient falls, I figure is that someone - perhaps a vendor? - has placed a huge sell order at $1 with no btc in MtGox account, and whenever new bitcoins arrive, they are immediately sold, regardless of market depth charts.  In fact, I would expect this to be a usual setup for vendors who just want their USD and don't care about speculating.


It seems strange to me that one could place a sell order without actually having BTC in the account available to sell. I suppose it works nicely for the use you mentioned. It just seems like there should be a better way. Perhaps a "sell everything now at any price" button.  Cheesy

i've just tried putting 100000 btc sell at 7. it didn't come up on mtgoxlive
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January 12, 2012, 08:22:55 PM
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I had some high $ value BTC sales booked on Gox & recently withdrew the BTC behind them to Bitcoinica for margin padding, the orders are still listed but say insufficient funds or something which I expect also removes them from Gox Live's chart, once I return the funds I expect them to become live again

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January 12, 2012, 09:05:21 PM
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Looking at the order book does not provide so much valuable information as proven in the past. It is better to focus on price action and other technical indications.

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arepo
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this statement is false


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January 15, 2012, 03:21:38 AM
 #19

'the insurmountable wall' has been ever so slowly but steadily shrinking and now appears nothing more than a dilapidated hump. i see but 40k to $8.00 and 40k to $6.15, extremely lopsided. what now?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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notme
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January 15, 2012, 03:22:40 AM
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'the insurmountable wall' has been ever so slowly but steadily shrinking and now appears nothing more than a dilapidated hump. i see but 40k to $8.00 and 40k to $6.15, extremely lopsided. what now?

Wire in some money and take advantage of the disparity?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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