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Author Topic: How safe is it to invest in just-dice  (Read 14911 times)
NUFCrichard
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January 02, 2015, 05:12:20 PM
 #121

Well, about investing, I can't tell how safe is it. Who knows someone gonna win BIG later? You can't predict people's luck and future of course Grin

It's possible that someone will get lucky and stay lucky long enough to take all the site profits. It has happened before. But there is a 1% house edge which should mean the site is profitable in the long term. Here's a chart showing the actual site profit (in black) and the 1% expected site profit (in green) for the first month or so that it has been running with CLAMs:



Note how the black line goes up and down pretty much at random, but also tends to follow the shape of the green line.

On top of this, investors also get the rewards from staking the site's bankroll. So far that amounts to 25k CLAM - more than the profit from losing bets.

I will be betting my CLAM, but I still wouldn't invest them, it seems more dangerous than betting them on a long priced outsider.

I would be interested to hear the reasoning that landed you at that conclusion.

When you bet there's a 1% edge against you. When you invest, the edge is in your favour and you get the staking rewards too, making the edge greater than 2%.

Ok Dooglus, maybe that was a bit of an unfairly aimed comment, but generally investing in crypto gambling sites hasn't been the greatest investment.
I am sure that you are doing things right, but I have never really understood why if these sites make profit, they are so keen to "share" the profit with everyone.  As I have often said, at some point the amount invested could be weighed up against the future profits of the site by an unscrupulous owner, and the they can decide that it isn't worth it anymore and run off with the invested money. 

Again, I am not saying that you will do that, but there have been examples of that happening in the past.

Do you invest in any other dice sites that aren't directly under your control?


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sherbyspark
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January 02, 2015, 05:25:28 PM
 #122

if invest 0.1 for one month!!

how much profit i get !! ??
i m asking average Smiley
There is no average. Totally depends on how many people play on site and lose.
You might lose money as well. Anything can happen.
dooglus
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January 02, 2015, 05:35:00 PM
 #123

Ok Dooglus, maybe that was a bit of an unfairly aimed comment, but generally investing in crypto gambling sites hasn't been the greatest investment.

It's true. Running a crowd-funded dice site gets the owner control of a whole load of (other people's) coins very quickly. It usually takes quite a while for the site to make a profit, and even longer for the site's owner to earn very much in the way of commission. But if they "play against the investors" by using the server seeds, or just run off with the coins, they make a lot of coins very quickly, and so obviously that happens a lot.

I ran Just-Dice with Bitcoins for a year with a bankroll over 60,000 BTC (worth over $50 million at one point) and didn't feel any temptation to steal anything. Since I showed I was able to be trusted with that amount of value, most people don't have too much worry about trusting me with the relatively tiny value of the CLAM site. The whole bankroll there is worth around $300k at the moment - a small fraction of the BTC site's value.

I am sure that you are doing things right, but I have never really understood why if these sites make profit, they are so keen to "share" the profit with everyone.  As I have often said, at some point the amount invested could be weighed up against the future profits of the site by an unscrupulous owner, and the they can decide that it isn't worth it anymore and run off with the invested money.  

I can think of lots of reasons (good and bad) that might make it worth accepting a crowd-sourced bankroll:

1) BIGGER BETS: By allowing others to take part in the bankroll you are able to afford to offer bigger maximum bets which may attract more players.

2) LESS RISK: I can make risk-free coins by taking a commission on site profits. The "investors" risk their coins, and I take a cut of any profits they make.

3) NEW MARKET: Offering an attractive "investment" attracts people to the site who wouldn't usually consider visiting a gambling site. They come to invest, but end up playing.

4) GIVE BACK: Why not share the profits with others?

5) EASY MONEY: Collect massive bankroll from suckers then steal it.

Again, I am not saying that you will do that, but there have been examples of that happening in the past.

Do you invest in any other dice sites that aren't directly under your control?

Not at the moment. I invested in both dicebitco.in and dice.ninja for a while, but managed to withdraw before they went bad in both cases. Those experiences put me off the idea of trusting people. Smiley

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dooglus
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January 02, 2015, 05:38:07 PM
 #124

if invest 0.1 for one month!!

how much profit i get !! ??
i m asking average Smiley
There is no average. Totally depends on how many people play on site and lose.
You might lose money as well. Anything can happen.

Well, we can see the average amount wagered per day and guess that it will be similar going forward.

I made an account on December 12th and invested some coins in it.

Here's a record of how that investment grew each week, and the cumulative growth:

Dec 12 2014     0.00%   100.00%
Dec 15 2014     3.64%   103.64%
Dec 22 2014     5.02%   108.85%
Dec 29 2014     2.09%   111.13%

Jan  2 2015     5.94%   117.73%

So I've seen 17.73% growth in 3 or 4 weeks. That is from staking and play combined.

Of course there's no guarantee that the same happens in any other 4 weeks. It's quite possible even to have a losing month.

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January 03, 2015, 12:51:13 PM
 #125

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
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January 03, 2015, 12:53:00 PM
 #126





Looks like you are running Matlab there dooglus?! I guess you have some type of engineering background
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January 03, 2015, 02:35:41 PM
 #127

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
Depends, the current buy market is just over 50 BTC . Current price is 0.0038 . So if you were to buy 10 BTC worth, then you would be driving the price up to 0.005.
And if you were to sell right now, you would drop it to 0.0027.

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January 03, 2015, 03:10:08 PM
 #128

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
Depends, the current buy market is just over 50 BTC . Current price is 0.0038 . So if you were to buy 10 BTC worth, then you would be driving the price up to 0.005.
And if you were to sell right now, you would drop it to 0.0027.

FortuneJack.com lets you exchange chunks like that fast I believe Smiley

The other small peanut exchanges have CLAM too, but you'd be best to put your order on the Ask and wait for BTC whale to come in and bite it.  No one wants to keep Bitcoins on most of those exchanges, so it is a in and out thing!

Lots of people by off the exchanges, but be sure to use escrow!


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January 03, 2015, 04:54:05 PM
 #129

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?

It's not easy without moving the price significantly. The markets are pretty shallow. 10 BTC is ~3k CLAM, and there are only ~400k total CLAM in circulation. So you're talking about moving almost whole percentages of the CLAM supply.

And that's gnuplot, not matlab. Smiley

Code:
plot \
    "site-profit.dat" using 1:($3/1e8) title "profit" with lines lt 7, \
    "site-profit.dat" using 1:($2/1e10) title "1% edge" with lines lt 2

FortuneJack.com lets you exchange chunks like that fast I believe Smiley

Does anyone know how the fortunejack exchange works? I don't see any information about the market depth. I suspect it doesn't really work for large amounts, and that they just quote market + margin and buy back on the exchanges.

Here they are quoting me a price to buy a million CLAMs. There are only 400k in existence currently, so unless they have a huge supply they didn't 'dig' yet (and why wouldn't they dig and stake them if so) it seems they're making offers they can't follow through on:



... and I get the same price if I only have half a BTC:


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January 03, 2015, 05:40:10 PM
 #130

wait does anyone know if theres any faucet that produces clam?  Smiley

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January 03, 2015, 06:21:20 PM
 #131

wait does anyone know if theres any faucet that produces clam?  Smiley

There are a couple linked in the Just-Dice FAQ tab.

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January 03, 2015, 06:54:55 PM
 #132

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
Depends, the current buy market is just over 50 BTC . Current price is 0.0038 . So if you were to buy 10 BTC worth, then you would be driving the price up to 0.005.
And if you were to sell right now, you would drop it to 0.0027.

Wait thats pretty crazy. The price is that sensitive, or is that with all new alt coins that gain traction like similar end up being doge coin?

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January 03, 2015, 06:59:35 PM
 #133

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
Depends, the current buy market is just over 50 BTC . Current price is 0.0038 . So if you were to buy 10 BTC worth, then you would be driving the price up to 0.005.
And if you were to sell right now, you would drop it to 0.0027.

Wait thats pretty crazy. The price is that sensitive, or is that with all new alt coins that gain traction like similar end up being doge coin?

Hopefully CLAM doesn't end up how I believe DOGE is going to end up, but yes coins that pick up volume similar to BTC, LTC, DOGE and what we are seeing with CLAM are often very volatile at first... even oil when it was first discovered it could be burned had HUGE swings in the market, but once more and more people started trading the price leveled out naturally.

I expect CLAM to continue to increase and for a number of large businesses with trust already established to start accepting them (such as FortuneJack already... they spend a large chunk of change advertising.)

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January 03, 2015, 08:53:45 PM
 #134

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
Depends, the current buy market is just over 50 BTC . Current price is 0.0038 . So if you were to buy 10 BTC worth, then you would be driving the price up to 0.005.
And if you were to sell right now, you would drop it to 0.0027.

You can have a better deal than the market with a big buyer/seller if you do a private sell.

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NUFCrichard
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January 03, 2015, 09:24:27 PM
 #135

wait does anyone know if theres any faucet that produces clam?  Smiley

There are a couple linked in the Just-Dice FAQ tab.
How many of the 400k clams are yours dooglus?
Are you selling your clams or storing them? If storing you must have built a large percentage of the market!


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January 04, 2015, 01:37:22 AM
 #136

wait does anyone know if theres any faucet that produces clam?  Smiley

There are a couple linked in the Just-Dice FAQ tab.
How many of the 400k clams are yours dooglus?
Are you selling your clams or storing them? If storing you must have built a large percentage of the market!

Dooglus has aroun 246,000 right now Wink

Go to just-dice and type /supply.

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January 04, 2015, 12:23:42 PM
 #137

wait does anyone know if theres any faucet that produces clam?  Smiley

There are a couple linked in the Just-Dice FAQ tab.
How many of the 400k clams are yours dooglus?
Are you selling your clams or storing them? If storing you must have built a large percentage of the market!

Dooglus has aroun 246,000 right now Wink

Go to just-dice and type /supply.

Just-dice has 246k CLAM not dooglus. CLAM market cap is now 2000BTC

You will have some answers here : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=623147.msg10003852#msg10003852

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NUFCrichard
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January 04, 2015, 03:01:19 PM
 #138

wait does anyone know if theres any faucet that produces clam?  Smiley

There are a couple linked in the Just-Dice FAQ tab.
How many of the 400k clams are yours dooglus?
Are you selling your clams or storing them? If storing you must have built a large percentage of the market!

Dooglus has aroun 246,000 right now Wink

Go to just-dice and type /supply.

Just-dice has 246k CLAM not dooglus. CLAM market cap is now 2000BTC

You will have some answers here : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=623147.msg10003852#msg10003852

Ok, thanks, interesting stuff!  It still seems like an interesting/weird choice to use CLAMs, but I guess there is method in the madness as trade seems to be pretty good on JD at the moment.


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dooglus
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January 04, 2015, 05:27:06 PM
 #139

How difficult is it to move 10's of BTC into CLAM and then back to BTC at the moment?
Depends, the current buy market is just over 50 BTC . Current price is 0.0038 . So if you were to buy 10 BTC worth, then you would be driving the price up to 0.005.
And if you were to sell right now, you would drop it to 0.0027.

Wait thats pretty crazy. The price is that sensitive, or is that with all new alt coins that gain traction like similar end up being doge coin?

I selected CLAM for JD in part because of its low market cap. I don't want to be responsible for millions of dollars of cryptocurrency. The fact that the market is too shallow to support even 10's of BTC of volume without shifting drastically is a good thing from my point of view.

The complaints I see in the chat about the relatively small maximum bet size now, I see as a good thing:

  (152350) <JimC> I remember the good 'ol days when max profit + $100,000+
  (967107) <eustice> lol this is like dollar scratch tickets

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January 04, 2015, 05:36:41 PM
 #140

I vouch for JD. My tiny investment of 24 coins has now generated a profit of 5 coins for me. Dooglus is legendary (not just as a member on this forum) in the crypto-gambling world. He held almost 10K BTC at one time IIRC. Whatever i have seen of him. he has been extremely honest. In fact, he still holds some BTC from some folks who did not divest at the time he had to close Bitdice due to laws in Canada. If anyone else had 10K BTC in their charge at the time when BTC went up to $1000 apiece, they might not have stuck around. It would have been very easy for him to run away with 10K BTC but he did not, this speaks volumes about his integrity and has pushed up my trust in him!
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