I give up

[piramida]

Mat is known for his dead on predictions, like this one here:

Right now, we are hearing a lot from people who believe that $100 for a Bitcoin is a fire sale price. These and the other class of investors who believe that there are lots of these type of people around, are the sorts who instigate the predictable 'dead cat bounce' effect, which nearly always has the effect of prolonging the life/death of any zombie stock or intangible asset.

I was trying to find the post where you claimed that you are a pro and made shit ton of money, but can't. Did you delete it Mat? Too bad. Anyway, good luck next time Don't forget to get on the train.

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[Mellnik]

It seems every time I find something that looks promising, I'm just a sucker waiting to give someone else a payout.  I have been following advice a gentleman offered to "hodl" my bitcoin, from $984 all the way down to now $436.  I've just been fooling myself, telling myself "Don't worry hon, it will go back up! It always has!"  I've been spending my time reading the forums and hoping.  My friends called me crazy when I told them it's a sure thing.  The shame is just as bad as the lost money.  So I quit.  You guys win.  Coins sold. 

Can't wait to see your face when the value hits $1,000/BTC again.

[seleme]

I remember a guy who bought a big bunch of Litecoins at 6$, he bought around 10k of them with money he could not afford to lose.

When litecoin hit the bottom, at that time it was 2$. He was full of despair and wanted to take his loss.
I have no idea if that guy sold or not, he was advised not to sell.

Three weeks later, November arrived

Truth is, you need at least two bubbles to stop caring about the price.

Haha, I remember that guy from trollbox. He was successfully trolled by LitecoinVictim aka fonzie. I hope he didn't sell, I was advising him not to do it then.

[MatTheCat]

Mat is known for his dead on predictions, like this one here:

Right now, we are hearing a lot from people who believe that $100 for a Bitcoin is a fire sale price. These and the other class of investors who believe that there are lots of these type of people around, are the sorts who instigate the predictable 'dead cat bounce' effect, which nearly always has the effect of prolonging the life/death of any zombie stock or intangible asset.

I was trying to find the post where you claimed that you are a pro and made shit ton of money, but can't. Did you delete it Mat? Too bad. Anyway, good luck next time Don't forget to get on the train.

I did make a shit ton of money at first. I never even knew what a MACD was back then but now realise that in an inflating market, the odds are in the traders favour to make money. Since Bitcoin went into recession, I made a few big wins but would eat away into my profits with lots of silly impulse driven trades, usually leveraged short and long. My most recent trade, a leveraged short right on cusp of manipulated short squeeze...was a kick in the teeth. Bitcoin has since touched my break even level on that short trade as I knew it would, but also strayed 65 cents beyond my position liquidation level. For 2014, I have to confess that I am now well into net loss territory in Bitcoin.

Trading in inflating market = easy

Trading in deflating market = hard

So there you have it. I am not a great trader and trading is something that I am going to have to quit. What I do have is an ability to tune into a Bitcoin on an intuitive level. This entails taking a long position and 'sleeping on it'. 9 times out of 10, within a couple of nights I will get a dream or intuitions will otherwise come to me on the pending fate of Bitcoin. Last time I done this was when Bitcoin was at $490:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=581956.msg6361758#msg6361758

Intellect, FOMO, and consequently mal-influenced TA was telling me that break out to upper $500s could be on the cards, so I bought in. Subconscious intuition brought me out and same price level the following day. Bitcoin has since fallen up to $70 lower and is currently $45 lower than my cash out price point.

EDIT: I noticed you dug up a post of mine from April 2013. Well done. I refuted that $100 Bitcoin was a fire sale price. What price was Bitcoin 2-3 months down the line? $60? So even that I got right, albeit only through a fluke as back then, all my Bitcoins were for Silk Road. Wasn't 'invested' in it a single bit. Didn't have the slightest clue about markets or investing back then.

[JustAnotherSheep]

if you bought at $600, price is falling and you know it will hit $300 before a bounce

How do you know? The whole point is that nobody knows exactly how the far it goes, both ways; but from below it's limited by $0, so upside is much higher. It still makes more sense to hold through a temporary loss than to get left behind.

Technical Analysis, while probabilistic, can more often than not give you fairly accurate price targets and predictions. As long as you account for this probabilistic nature and have reasonable margins of error, there's a good chance you can use the analysis to make a profit. Especially, as Mat (I think?) so eloquently put it, in such a sentiment-driven market filled with noobs and clueless "hodlers" as Bitcoin, making price movements all the more predictable

[piramida]

I can agree that it may be possible to predict movements in this market once you get a good feel of it, but only on a long intervals - like a year long; I didn't see (m)any people making profit doing daily trading here, only some pros on midterm (month-long) trends. For the rest, and that includes 99% of everybody else, long term holding is a much more financially solid advice; selling a little into rallies (like november) buying after crashes (like now) to make some profit.

You still never had to sell below your buying price; if you do, it means you are doing something wrong.

[wormbog]

OP, if you're still reading this thread:

Your goal of making gains on bitcoin to change your life is a good one. But you should look at your bitcoin as a medium-term gamble instead of a short-term sure thing.

Personally I still think there's a lot of upside in bitcoin over the next few years. If you agree, consider this strategy:

1. Figure out how much money you need to bring about the change you want. $10k? $25k?
2. Figure out how much you can afford to bet on this gamble and buy that amount of bitcoin. Move them to offline storage.
3. Consider that money gone permanently, as if you had spent it on a vacation, or lottery tickets, or whatever. It's not "invested", it's gone.
4. Continue to live your life. Check your bitcoin holdings once in a while, not too often.
5. If your bitcoin has reached your goal value from step 1, sell immediately. YOU WIN!
6. If not, wait a couple months and check again.

While you're waiting, look for other ways to achieve your goals without bitcoin.

[TERA]

'you've got to speculate to accumulate'.

Are you accumulating tens of thousands of coins or something?

[pinksheep]

'you've got to speculate to accumulate'.

Are you accumulating tens of thousands of coins or something?

Why would I have to be accumulating tens of thousands of coins for it to be considered speculation? Owning 1 coin could be considered 'speculating to accumulate'. And I can assure you I will never have tens of thousands of coins, nor hundreds, nor even dozens.

[Swordsoffreedom]

this thread will be used as a gauge of when to buy Bitcoin.

Mark my words and let's see in a year how right I am.

Hehe probally will be right anyways interesting to see this thread still going

[kireinaha]

Where did Veronica go? If you're reading this, it's not too late! You can still buy back in and join in the next epic rally!

You might want to wait another week or two (we'll probably test $400 again) but the pennant will be breaking out shortly thereafter! Come on, you did not hold your investment for five months for no reason, did you? Like Warren Buffet said, "Investing is designed to transfer money from the Active to the Patient."

[pinksheep]

She's maybe so digusted that she'll never come back to this forum or want to think about bitcoin ever again  but I agree she shouldn't have sold all her coins. Even 10% of them could recoup her original losses if things go well.

[Swordsoffreedom]

She's maybe so digusted that she'll never come back to this forum or want to think about bitcoin ever again   but I agree she shouldn't have sold all her coins. Even 10% of them could recoup her original losses if things go well.

Pretty much this small holdings can grow quite large and even a tiny stake could do the trick if you have the duration to hold it and the good fortune to see it come to fruition

[YipYip]

Would anybody at some point would like to explain OP why price will rise one way or another? (instead of just telling HODL without explanation)
Thanks!

P.S. are you aware of next bank holidays which will sum up to 4 days of no fresh fiat to exchanges. .. I say we might go even more down so good time to rebuy

No, they can't. All they can shout is HODL and give cherry picked examples of how the bear trend is over and Bitcoin is about to go through the roof. Exact same thing as they have done all the way down from the OP buy-in price in the $900 range, as I am sure she is painfully aware off.

this thread will be used as a gauge of when to buy Bitcoin.

Mark my words and let's see in a year how right I am.

Sorry, but you have little more than 6-8 weeks for Bitcoin to hit $5000, otherwise Bitcoin proves how wrong you were.

My call that got laughed off the forum when I first made it was Bitcoin to $200 range. We have already came within $40 of that coming good and the night is yet young.


@ OP:

Listen good OP, get buy-in tranches set up in upper $200 range. No guarantee that this is bottom or that Bitcoin will even break down this low, but if it does, there will be a good chance of making some of your money back on rebound and even if Bitcoin goes much lower, probable worst case scenario is that you break even on rebound.

Take no heed of the mealy mouthed arseholes who are basically saying you deserve your losses for 'only getting into Bitcoin for material gain'. Bitcoin stopped being a 'libertarian cause' and degenerated into a blood thirsty shark infested fiat feeding frenzy quite some time ago. If you deserve your losses for any reason at all, then it was for listening to and believing the fairy stories from the very same category of Bitcoin Nutter that is reprimanding you now. Bitcoin is the ultimate gambling roller coaster. Don't allow yourself to be shark bait (again), don't take any trade that isn't at an extremity of trading trend and be ready to drop it in an instant should it start to smell a little bit foul.

Dude ......

Actually its ATH by July 31 & 2-5k by the end of the year ...so 8 weeks for 1150 not 5k :/

And while we are in teh land of correcting slight inconsistency's ...on what planet did we hit 240   ..I had 349 as the flash crash that lasted for 10 mins on stamp

Word on the street is the final CHINA drama may play out this weekend ..so lets see ..I think we are done with it and as stated previously the simple solution is to move to HK

Also Veronica if u are listening ...sell your daughter to the white slave trade and buy her back in about 8 weeks ..its a sound investment and will give her some good life lessons in the value of investment & HODL  

[kireinaha]

Who is the "gentleman" who told her to HODL from $984?

[MatTheCat]

Dude ......

Actually its ATH by July 31 & 2-5k by the end of the year ...so 8 weeks for 1150 not 5k :/

And while we are in teh land of correcting slight inconsistency's ...on what planet did we hit 240   ..I had 349 as the flash crash that lasted for 10 mins on stamp

Word on the street is the final CHINA drama may play out this weekend ..so lets see ..I think we are done with it and as stated previously the simple solution is to move to HK

Also Veronica if u are listening ...sell your daughter to the white slave trade and buy her back in about 8 weeks ..its a sound investment and will give her some good life lessons in the value of investment & HODL  

You come across to me as permanently hyper. That is why you have the concentration span of a goat, that is why anytime you make a good judgement, it was a fluke.

You are last person that I would take Bitcoin call from. I just want to let you know that.

And I never said $200, I said $200 range. If Bitcoin hits $299, then I am right.

[YipYip]

Dude ......

Actually its ATH by July 31 & 2-5k by the end of the year ...so 8 weeks for 1150 not 5k :/

And while we are in teh land of correcting slight inconsistency's ...on what planet did we hit 240   ..I had 349 as the flash crash that lasted for 10 mins on stamp

Word on the street is the final CHINA drama may play out this weekend ..so lets see ..I think we are done with it and as stated previously the simple solution is to move to HK

Also Veronica if u are listening ...sell your daughter to the white slave trade and buy her back in about 8 weeks ..its a sound investment and will give her some good life lessons in the value of investment & HODL  

You come across to me as permanently hyper. That is why you have the concentration span of a goat, that is why anytime you make a good judgement, it was a fluke.

You are last person that I would take Bitcoin call from. I just want to let you know that.

And I never said $200, I said $200 range. If Bitcoin hits $299, then I am right.

Ok ... but at this stage your are WRONG ...lolz

Good judgement ...really ...lolz ..you would have to be blind freddy to not see that bitcoin as a mid-long term investment hits a very high reward-risk ratio

Bloomberg anouncement is really cool and just the start ... There is a difference in that I believe in crypto as a movement not just a investmnet oppurtunity

I dont have 38 rigs using ~40kw an hour because I am slightly intrested in making some short term profits

I see what could be and the future is very bright ...already crypto has been very kind to me and to be truthful many people would love to have an oppurtunity to apply themselfs and are really looking for that "THING or VEHICLE or BUSINESS" to do it...riding a bike in the rain in the middle of the night to go fix a rig that had shutdown has been just some of the awesomness that has been crypto 

People look at successful peopele and think they just had the right oppurtunity at the right time ... the reality is further from the truth ...mostly it would have been hard work & hardship & determination ...nothing in life is given ..everything needs to be earned that has any real value

SO now is the winter but I can see summer just around the corner ...Put yourself back 12 months and in hindsight how cool would have it been if you invested when it was 30,60 or even 110

This will be the same conversation we will be having in 12 months..Its either going away for good or its going ALL THE WAY

You need to look past the lip of your coffee cup ...

[disclaimer201]

Bitcoin will go way higher than 1000 Dollars. If you don't believe this I hope you sell out now for a loss. More for the rest of us. Thanks.

[tspacepilot]

It seems every time I find something that looks promising, I'm just a sucker waiting to give someone else a payout.  I have been following advice a gentleman offered to "hodl" my bitcoin, from $984 all the way down to now $436.  I've just been fooling myself, telling myself "Don't worry hon, it will go back up! It always has!"  I've been spending my time reading the forums and hoping.  My friends called me crazy when I told them it's a sure thing.  The shame is just as bad as the lost money.  So I quit.  You guys win.  Coins sold. 

Right, it turns out that 984 was pretty close to the global high, that doesn't mean there isn't a new global high coming.  I considered selling when we hit that price, but I only have a small amount so I figure I'll hang on for the long term and see what happens.  Sorry for your loss, hope you had a fun/educational time.

[blatchcorn]

I think Veronica26 should keep trading for everyone to use as a technical indicator.  Buy when she sells, and sell when she buys.