Do you really think that you can predict bitcoin price?

[etheral]

Can anyone at this stage really predict what the price of bitcoin will be? How many different variables there are, probably thousands if not more... even a butterfly effect can cause a huge surge or a very sudden decline in price... mostly, it's people trying to predict what the hivemind will do and sell before the majority decides to do so or buy before the majority decides to do so.... so from this perspective, you are just trying to outsmart other bitcoin users and make money of them... so it's a bunch of people playing with their money and trying to outsmart each other... All this bitcoin speculation reminds me of a game in which you have to tap other person's hand before the other person does that

[Chalkbot]

This thread aims to find out:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=581155.0

[bitcoinsrus]

Predict, no but it is common to be able to determine if your in a bear or bull market.  If price fluctuation is not good and going down or slowly up and down (this is bear) -Kind of like it is now.  You can short term predict that it may stay like this (so you can day trade hoping it goes down).

If there is fluctuation and its going up (and you are using bitcoinwisdom and other charts, you may think that it is a bull market) (and you see buy or sell orders) and you can predict on an uptrend (or downtrend).

So, I don't think anyone can 100% determine the price.  But there are indications on when it can go up/down or just stay the same for the time being.

[chessnut]

obviously, speculation is a game of probability. If you use your experience, your knowledge, and your philosophy, you may have an edge in the game.

[Tx2000]

I predict that it's going to crash.   And tomorrow I'll be back to say it's going to the moon.  Pretty much sums up 99% of the posts in this forum in some degree or another.

[gagalady]

You can really predict the price according to markets and other aspects but the real question is: Does bitcoins price really depends on them? If not you know the answer what bitcoin is then.

[r34tr783tr78]

At least, you can identify the dominant trend. As long as you trade the trend, the chances of making money will be higher than the ones of losing it.

[TrailingComet]

I believe that the long term is reasonably rosy
DOn't know when long term begins, dont pretend to have a call on the vol until then
So no speculation for me, don't have the guts or the time

[rudius]

I sure can. Not sure anybody else can tho...