expect a set of 3 articles about China situation and a prediction following

[zhangweiwu]

I've been guest writing for bitcoinblog.de for a while. The latest article is the first of a serial of 3 articles after 15th April.

http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/28/chinese-banks-dont-know-how-to-act-appropriate-cause-bitcoin-is-too-tiny/

The prediction will come after the set of 3 articles because it only make sense after readers get a grasp of China's realities.

My previous articles for bitcoinblog.de are here:
http://bitcoinblog.de/category/english/ (look for my name)

It may be possible that I will be slowed by my recent eye problem, that reality happens before I finish the whole set and the prediction.

-----
P.S.
For your information my past records on prediction on China issue were not bad:

Predicted 9th January. PBOC will not ban bitcoin but cripple its operation. Check.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406637.msg6044999

Predicted 24th March: the PBOC order exists and was unintentionally revealed. Check.
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/03/exclusive-truth-and-rumor-and-chinese-perspective-on-the-situation-of-chinese-exchanges/ (most were blaming the order a rumour by then, I said "That means that we (PBOC) were not sure how to deal with bitcoin in the beginning. Now, though, we have made up our mind: forget it.  We will simply force you out of business."

Predicted 4th April: OKcoin will move to Hong Kong. Still waiting for that news.
http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/03/exclusive-truth-and-rumor-and-chinese-perspective-on-the-situation-of-chinese-exchanges/

Predicted 10th April: the bottom is in, don’t wait any longer. There will be no dip in price on 15th April.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=540358.msg6153829#msg6153829
Check (real bottom of 350$ occurred that day and repeated the next day - only)

[solex]

Great. Further balanced insight into the ChinaFUD situation is needed.

[Siegfried]

You are a wise man.

[R2Pleasent]

Would you like a handjob now or later?

[windjc]

Well you should tell us your prediction before the third article, but judging from your first paragraph of this article when you said you had been too optimistic, I assume you think its going to get worse.

If everything you say is true, its pretty amazing that the PBOC has felt so threatened by this "small" thing called Bitcoin. It seems like Bitcoin should have been below their pay grade. They must be scared as hell of capital flight.

Because their concern over their poor chinese citizens fallng victim to a bad investment really sounds crazy when you suggest that bitcoin is so small in comparison to so many other things. Obviously, "protecting" their citizens was and is an excuse.

[chunglam]

Hi OP, would you explore the reason behind the fact that I can still deposit Yaun to Bank of China account of BTC China a few days ago. I plan to deposit more fund because of the arbitrate opportunity between BTC China and Bitstamp although the gap is closing, 2-3% a week ago and now it is only  0-1%

[MrBlacky]

This supports the idea that something doesn't add up with all this China "ban" thing. If BTC is so small for China then why is the PBOC so concerned with it...
Why do they want the price to go down? Is the PBOC interested in buying BTC ?

This is a great insight and makes good logical sense, but still I am missing the justification for the PBOC behavior.
For instance, in the story with the nightclub, the justification for the official's actions was that they wanted a bigger bribe.

[counter]

This supports the idea that something doesn't add up with all this China "ban" thing. If BTC is so small for China then why is the PBOC so concerned with it...
Why do they want the price to go down? Is the PBOC interested in buying BTC ?

This is a great insight and makes good logical sense, but still I am missing the justification for the PBOC behavior.
For instance, in the story with the nightclub, the justification for the official's actions was that they wanted a bigger bribe.

Good question!  It feels like someone is trying to take advantage of Bitcoin with all the fud going around and PBOC seems to be a potential culprit.  The OP is very informative, thanks.

[C. Bergmann]

Hallo, editor from bitcoinblog here. I am lucky to publish Zhangs insightful articles, and I am lucky to read you like them.

Currently blockchain.info accepts nominations for the blockchain award, and one category is "most insightful journalist". If you think like me Zhangs articles are the most insightful source of information about one of the most important (price-forming) issue in the temporary bitcoin seen I would be glad if you take some seconds to nominate him.

Just click here https://blog.blockchain.com/2014/04/16/the-first-annual-blockchain-awards/

Thank you

[zhangweiwu]

Well you should tell us your prediction before the third article, but judging from your first paragraph of this article when you said you had been too optimistic, I assume you think its going to get worse.

True, but I wish to find out in which way to get worse and its impact (or lack of) on global market, need to introspect my prediction too, a few more days helps.

[MatTheCat]

I've been guest writing for bitcoinblog.de for a while. The latest article is the first of a serial of 3 articles after 15th April.

http://bitcoinblog.de/2014/04/28/chinese-banks-dont-know-how-to-act-appropriate-cause-bitcoin-is-too-tiny/

Excellent article. You provide an insight that is both candid and refreshing.

[y3804]

Well you should tell us your prediction before the third article, but judging from your first paragraph of this article when you said you had been too optimistic, I assume you think its going to get worse.

True, but I wish to find out in which way to get worse and its impact (or lack of) on global market, need to introspect my prediction too, a few more days helps.

Lack of? ..

[r34tr783tr78]

Based on this article, this unprecedented micro-action of the PBOC should had made the banks run scared to close the accounts, but there are still some allowing bitcoin accounts.

[EuroTrash]

Based on this article, this unprecedented micro-action of the PBOC should had made the banks run scared to close the accounts, but there are still some allowing bitcoin accounts.

I don't get this. Price discussion aside, I almost have the impression that Chinese banks don't give much of a shit about what PBOC says in the matter.

Makes me wonder whether the scary Chinese Govt has also weakened its control over its own citizens.

[Arghhh]

Can't wait to read your next article. Excellent reporting, Zhang.

[MatTheCat]

I don't get this. Price discussion aside, I almost have the impression that Chinese banks don't give much of a shit about it hat PBOC says in the matter.

Makes me wonder whether the scary Chinese Govt has also weakened its control over its own citizens.

Had you been paying attention in class you would know that all those banks are essentially government owned banks. Either central government or local government. It is more likely the case that it is Bitcoin that is a flea on on the donkey's arse that the PBOC has made a special point of crushing whilst the donkey's arse (the banks) is like 'eh, wot you bothering about that one particular tiny little flea for?'.

[Toxic2040]

Thank you for such a insightful perspective. I am kind of blown away by this but it make's a lot of sense. Looking forward to reading more from you.

[UglyTroll]

I'm just curious that what are those Chinese exchange CEOs doing right now? Are they worrying about losing their business license?

[N12]

I'm just curious that what are those Chinese exchange CEOs doing right now? Are they worrying about losing their business license?

Perhaps they are fleeing the country?

[Ultros]

You're one of the most interesting poster on these forums OP. It's always a pleasure to read your insights. Thanks you.