I've ALSO Given Up

[silencesilence]

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here.
Here is what I have done:

• Bought ~8 coins in the last few months, average cost of ~$570.
  
• I've now sold those at ~$430. So yes, I have cemented about a $1100 loss.

Here is what I will do:

• If it goes to $500, I will buy back my 8 coins.
  
• I will buy back in at $300 +/- $50; the goal being roughly 12 coins.

Cementing the loss sucks, sure, but I have a hard time believing this is going anywhere but down short term. Also, if it is not obvious by my average cost, I bought all these coins before the last dip to $340 and am currently at/over what I feel comfortable losing. Therefore, the common advice (at least given out on this forum) of "holding and buying more as we go down" is not an option for me.
More background, since this is my first post:
I am NOT a trader/investor at all. I have been trying to master the finance language the last few months, but I'm really just a mech. engineer who likes technology. I've lurked on here since February and have read everything on Bitcoin that I could find. I think Bitcoin (the technology) can be revolutionary (i.e. change the world). I think Bitcoin (the currency) can be a good investment (i.e. increase my wealth). That being said, I don't see the pointing in holding just for the sake of holding. The only other time I have invested it something similar to this, such as stocks, is when I bought Tesla stock when it first became public. I bought it for the same reasons I am buying (had bought) Bitcoin. However, at the time, I was a broke grad student and only managed to purchase a few shares.
My "TA" (in this case TA = trend analysis):

Nothing new here, it just seems obvious to me that we are heading for another dip. The "dips" are decreasing in size/length, but a dip nonetheless seems destined.

+1

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-decline-targets-below-400-usd-bitcoin-analysis/2014/05/05

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[Kramerc]

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then.

I first bought at $14 after the peak and mtgox fiasco, and sat with 85% loss for a little over a year while it went down to $2. You know, it was worth it Even though I lost hope at one point - at $2 - and that's when it started growing back

You need not feel sorry for me, my average buy-in price is much, much lower than my first buy-in price, and I am very comfortable right now. I would be, even at 100. Actually, at 100 I would probably get loans to invest 10 times my initial investment.

[UglyTroll]

When price drops to 100, you'll be scared to death, it's OK to talk big right now 

[windjc]

When price drops to 100, you'll be scared to death, it's OK to talk big right now 

Totally depends on the mind set of the individual and the circumstances of how the price got to $100. That is why I have been insanely diligent in learning about all the angles of bitcoin, technical, fundamental, emotion, capitalistic, etc. etc.

So that I can make "non-emotional" decisions at the right (or close to the right) time.

[RyanMilligan1]

Never sold my cold storage at BTC peak of $1000+, spent more fiat after silk roads seizure and have mainly been in profit and never really lost much so it may be easier for me to be optimistic.


Bitcoin is built for strong hands, get a pair or get out and go with safer ways of making money. After all this isn't just about pure profit.


I believe in bitcoin and what it does/stands for, but I want to make money off of it of course but you have to be strong. You have to use btc as well, I have about 80% in cold storage, 20% for investing, buying things, selling. For mass adoption we actually have to use Bitcoin not just save it hoping some sort of human global event causes price increase.

[YipYip]

When price drops to 100, you'll be scared to death, it's OK to talk big right now 

...yawn

[solarion]

Technical analysis is crap. Throw some tea leaves on the floor and read them if you want insight, it's likely to be just as accurate.

Bitcoin would do well to dump a whole lot of speculators with 10 second attention spans, particularly if coins land in the hands of actual believers in crypto currencies.

[MatTheCat]

Technical analysis is crap. Throw some tea leaves on the floor and read them if you want insight, it's likely to be just as accurate.

Bitcoin would do well to dump a whole lot of speculators with 10 second attention spans, particularly if coins land in the hands of actual believers in crypto currencies.

LOL.

Depends on who is doing the TA, and how good they are with it, doesn't it?

n00b.

[RyanMilligan1]

Technical analysis is crap. Throw some tea leaves on the floor and read them if you want insight, it's likely to be just as accurate.

Bitcoin would do well to dump a whole lot of speculators with 10 second attention spans, particularly if coins land in the hands of actual believers in crypto currencies.

LOL.

Depends on who is doing the TA, and how good they are with it, doesn't it?

n00b.

This is a touchy area - the analysis could be done perfectly and then something like 'CHINA' could come along and fuck everything up in the space of an hour.

[UglyTroll]

and then something like 'CHINA' could come along and fuck everything up in the space of an hour.

  of course it'll happen again 

[MatTheCat]

This is a touchy area - the analysis could be done perfectly and then something like 'CHINA' could come along and fuck everything up in the space of an hour.

Go and check out the works of DanV: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w

He is a self-professed ignorer of fundamentals yet has played a blinder during these last few months laden with fundamentals minefields.

and also, good TA is not so much about 'predicting' the future price but choosing an opportune point to enter the market.

Had I discovered and more importantly, paid attention to DanV's analysis sooner, I would be considerably richer today and wouldn't have burned the thousands that I have burned with absolutely stupid impulse driven trading decisions.....yet I s'pose I had to make all those mistakes to learn to strongly identify what constitutes a sh1te trading decision, and what doesn't.

[solarion]

Technical analysis is crap. Throw some tea leaves on the floor and read them if you want insight, it's likely to be just as accurate.

Bitcoin would do well to dump a whole lot of speculators with 10 second attention spans, particularly if coins land in the hands of actual believers in crypto currencies.

LOL.

Depends on who is doing the TA, and how good they are with it, doesn't it?

No it does not, because you're likely to get several different responses from the same chart. None of which will properly account for human psychology or news.

n00b.

Not even a little. When I was young(and dumb) I *DID* believe that TA could predict with some measure of accuracy. It's hogwash...and btw so is the easter bunny.

[MatTheCat]

Not even a little. When I was young(and dumb) I *DID* believe that TA could predict with some measure of accuracy. It's hogwash...and btw so is the easter bunny.

Follow most of the TA posted on here and it's hogwash. Start trying to apply TA 101A principles without really knowing what you are doing and its hogwash. Go and find someone who has a talent for it and it is an indispensible tool that a trader would be crazy to trade without it. There are no guarantees and no sure fire way of accurately predicting the market, ever. There are however some very ingenious tried and tested methods of determining good market entry and exit points which greatly increase the probability of a trade turning out sweetly.

[RyanMilligan1]

This is a touchy area - the analysis could be done perfectly and then something like 'CHINA' could come along and fuck everything up in the space of an hour.

Go and check out the works of DanV: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w

He is a self-professed ignorer of fundamentals yet has played a blinder during these last few months laden with fundamentals minefields.

and also, good TA is not so much about 'predicting' the future price but choosing an opportune point to enter the market.

Had I discovered and more importantly, paid attention to DanV's analysis sooner, I would be considerably richer today and wouldn't have burned the thousands that I have burned with absolutely stupid impulse driven trading decisions.....yet I s'pose I had to make all those mistakes to learn to strongly identify what constitutes a sh1te trading decision, and what doesn't.

Don't listen to other people. Bitcoin is run a lot through human psychology, how can we decide when to sell when 20 people say different things.

I got in at about $20, then again at $50, then again big after the Silk Road one seizure. I have never sold more than 20% of my Bitcoins, I keep 80% in cold storage and I only plan on selling 50% at 3300 the other 50% I'll take 10% to use, sell, buy things, trade and that last 40% will either see the bottom and death of bitcoin or I'll sell most of them at 8000, leaving me enough that if it ever hits 20K a coin I will be able to use BTC to buy anything I want, as in my opinion for a 20K coin we would need semi-mass adoption, meaning most first world retailers would have to accept bitcoin as a form of payment.

With the way china, Russia and the U.S are going it wouldn't surprised if Russia do something stupid and bitcoin has a significant rise in a short period of time. That and if the winkle twins do get that ETF Bitcoin is going to see some strange movements. I think if we still have BTC in 2017, then Bitcoin will be a currency officially.

[r34tr783tr78]

Technical analysis only works when people believe it and follow it. At most, there might be some basic psychological reactions that command some typical reactions, like when a active is oversold or overbought.

[Bazil240]

Not even a little. When I was young(and dumb) I *DID* believe that TA could predict with some measure of accuracy. It's hogwash...and btw so is the easter bunny.

Follow most of the TA posted on here and it's hogwash. Start trying to apply TA 101A principles without really knowing what you are doing and its hogwash. Go and find someone who has a talent for it and it is an indispensible tool that a trader would be crazy to trade without it. There are no guarantees and no sure fire way of accurately predicting the market, ever. There are however some very ingenious tried and tested methods of determining good market entry and exit points which greatly increase the probability of a trade turning out sweetly.

It appears the "trend" I pointed out in the OP has been broken. The price could still shoot downwards but if it does, it still wouldn't truly be following the previous dips. DanV has stuck with his predictions so far, but other traders on TradingView (Tim West, David Alcindor) seem to believe it is now more likely to go up than down. I suspect even DanV may adjust his previous predictions soon. Thoughts? Obviously I would be disappointed if it goes up before it does first, but I still feel alight about my decision and my plan. I may slightly adjust my plan and buy back in at $480 (as opposed to $500).

[designfail]

now, where is that dickhead (igorr?) with his "down to da tubes" charts?

[mikerbiker6]

Almost at high, sell now!