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Author Topic: Well, it's settling down. Where will it go from here?  (Read 3685 times)
ineededausername
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January 18, 2012, 01:48:12 PM
 #1

So let's hear some guesses for the price on
1. Jan 25
2. Feb 1
3. Mar 1

(BFL)^2 < 0
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January 18, 2012, 01:51:33 PM
 #2

25/01 -> 5 USD
01/02 -> 4 USD
01/03 -> 3 USD

down, down, down
 Grin

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sgbett
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January 18, 2012, 01:59:48 PM
 #3

Jan 25: 5.4
Feb 1: 4.8
(dips to 3.5 during feb)
Mar 1: 7+ again

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January 18, 2012, 02:03:33 PM
 #4

I'm not sure what to think anymore. The * at the buy side on Bitcoinica isn't looking good. Too many longs again? Are they _that_ stupid? Another long squeeze incoming? *Sigh*

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January 18, 2012, 02:06:17 PM
 #5

1. Huh
2. Huh
3. Huh

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January 18, 2012, 02:12:32 PM
 #6



We still haven't broken the strong uptrend that started this huge rally from the low of 2$, so that's definitely a good thing. It's been a very strong trend so far, and we have already bounced off of it multiple times (The red arrows). We were overdoing it, though, with the very steep trendline from ~4,20 up to over 7. It simply wasn't sustainable, and once it was broken (Blue arrow) we dropped like a stone, but we overshot due to the many forced liquidations. Where we're going next? I'm not sure. We still have room to go lower without breaking the longer trend, but then again, this was also a pretty massive correction, so we don't necessarily have to go lower. Interesting times ahead!

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January 18, 2012, 02:17:13 PM
 #7

I think there's a shark suppressing the price.  And I also think we have a noble spirit (or trickster) putting up the two walls @ 5.4 and 5.2, otherwise we'd be dooooooowwwwnnn...
StewartJ
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January 18, 2012, 02:51:22 PM
 #8

Looks like this will be our new trading range for a while...


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January 18, 2012, 02:53:51 PM
 #9

Looks like this will be our new trading range for a while...




You're basing the bottom of a trading range on a single spike?

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January 18, 2012, 03:10:30 PM
 #10

Riddle me this Batman...

What happens to price after hourly RSI goes into overbought oversold territory?

Up?

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P4man
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January 18, 2012, 03:39:06 PM
 #11

Some quick math..
According to  rowit there are currently only ~30K hosts:



(and steadily going down!).

Lets assume thats 30K bitcoin users.
Also assuming all btc were available for purchase (which Im sure is not the case - yet), the market cap of the btc chain is currently ~$50M. That is $1600 on average for every user. My crystal ball says thats still way too much.

The current price level would make more sense to me if there were 10x more users doing 10x  more trade. That may or may not happen, and as long as there is hope, people will hoard coins, but currently $1 per BTC seems more reasonable to me than $10 and unless adoption begins to increase instead of decrease , even the hoarders will get out at some point.

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January 18, 2012, 03:49:18 PM
 #12

When all is said and done, this may well be remembered as the second Bitcoin bubble.
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January 18, 2012, 03:50:24 PM
 #13

it's a rocky road but everytime i see the price dip and spike I imagine someone profiting tens of thousands of dollars, somewhere.

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January 18, 2012, 04:10:51 PM
 #14

To me this is about taking a stand. The recent development was a credibility hit to Bitcoin but the price still went down "only" 20% which is less than it has in the past. To avoid a 50% drop which would be a massive credibility hit, people need to take a stand. You either support Bitcoin or you don't and now is the time to show that support or not if that is your decision.

I rarely make these kinds of posts but I honestly believe that this is a critical situation right now. We either make this recent development a bigger issue than it was, or we don't. It's our choice collectively.

And by showing support I don't necessarily mean buying now or going all-in at Bitcoinica, I mean choosing a position which you'll hold. No matter what.

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January 18, 2012, 04:26:13 PM
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To me this is about taking a stand. The recent development was a credibility hit to Bitcoin but the price still went down "only" 20% which is less than it has in the past. To avoid a 50% drop which would be a massive credibility hit, people need to take a stand. You either support Bitcoin or you don't and now is the time to show that support or not if that is your decision.

I rarely make these kinds of posts but I honestly believe that this is a critical situation right now. We either make this recent development a bigger issue than it was, or we don't. It's our choice collectively.

And by showing support I don't necessarily mean buying now or going all-in at Bitcoinica, I mean choosing a position which you'll hold. No matter what.

+1

Which do you believe in harder, BTC or USD?
Unfortunately, the daily dependency that we have on USD is a major factor in this.  For poorer people such as myself, this is a very difficult stand to take -- possibly the most difficult I've ever faced.  I literally have to scrape together every dollar I can muster just to keep food in the (mini) fridge, and sometimes this means I have to sell some BTC I have mined.  And if you're wondering how I "afforded" mining hardware in the first place -- I really didn't.  I spent all my Pell grant excess on it, which has severly crippled me and my loved ones in the short term.  Taking a stand, indeed.

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StewartJ
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January 18, 2012, 04:30:44 PM
 #16

We were in a 2-week mini bubble since the beginning of January.

We have corrected back down to $5.50, where we had been heading as the next "genuine" support price (1st week of January)

Curious to see how it shakes out.

naima53
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January 18, 2012, 04:47:43 PM
 #17

To me this is about taking a stand. The recent development was a credibility hit to Bitcoin but the price still went down "only" 20% which is less than it has in the past. To avoid a 50% drop which would be a massive credibility hit, people need to take a stand. You either support Bitcoin or you don't and now is the time to show that support or not if that is your decision.

I rarely make these kinds of posts but I honestly believe that this is a critical situation right now. We either make this recent development a bigger issue than it was, or we don't. It's our choice collectively.

And by showing support I don't necessarily mean buying now or going all-in at Bitcoinica, I mean choosing a position which you'll hold. No matter what.
+1
 I want to "support" bitcoin, to buy right now in a strong support zone! Yesterday I have earned the large sum of money but I can not whitdraw from bitcoinica "temporary mtgox limit is riched"  Sad

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StewartJ
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January 18, 2012, 05:10:25 PM
 #18

Some quick math..
According to  rowit there are currently only ~30K hosts:



(and steadily going down!).

Lets assume thats 30K bitcoin users.
Also assuming all btc were available for purchase (which Im sure is not the case - yet), the market cap of the btc chain is currently ~$50M. That is $1600 on average for every user. My crystal ball says thats still way too much.

The current price level would make more sense to me if there were 10x more users doing 10x  more trade. That may or may not happen, and as long as there is hope, people will hoard coins, but currently $1 per BTC seems more reasonable to me than $10 and unless adoption begins to increase instead of decrease , even the hoarders will get out at some point.

Your basing the price of a bitcoin on fundamentals.

That would be a nice thing in theory. But as we all know, its really based on speculation.
jojo69
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January 18, 2012, 05:12:37 PM
 #19

I am fairly optimistic

I thought the big swing was going to buzz down to 5.55 and then break lower in a total rout

instead we weather 3 more large profit takings and settle near 5.70

It is true. the long term uptrend is yet to even be tested in this recent turn of events, we should test it some time in the next couple days

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StewartJ
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January 18, 2012, 05:34:51 PM
 #20

A trading range indicated, before our 2-week bubble:


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