Well, it's settling down. Where will it go from here?

[ineededausername]

So let's hear some guesses for the price on
1. Jan 25
2. Feb 1
3. Mar 1

[1715181588]

1715181588

[1715181588]

1715181588

[1715181588]

1715181588

[pazor]

25/01 -> 5 USD
01/02 -> 4 USD
01/03 -> 3 USD

down, down, down
 

[sgbett]

Jan 25: 5.4
Feb 1: 4.8
(dips to 3.5 during feb)
Mar 1: 7+ again

[Mushoz]

I'm not sure what to think anymore. The * at the buy side on Bitcoinica isn't looking good. Too many longs again? Are they _that_ stupid? Another long squeeze incoming? *Sigh*

[rebuilder]

1.
2.
3.

[Mushoz]

We still haven't broken the strong uptrend that started this huge rally from the low of 2$, so that's definitely a good thing. It's been a very strong trend so far, and we have already bounced off of it multiple times (The red arrows). We were overdoing it, though, with the very steep trendline from ~4,20 up to over 7. It simply wasn't sustainable, and once it was broken (Blue arrow) we dropped like a stone, but we overshot due to the many forced liquidations. Where we're going next? I'm not sure. We still have room to go lower without breaking the longer trend, but then again, this was also a pretty massive correction, so we don't necessarily have to go lower. Interesting times ahead!

[Mark Oates]

I think there's a shark suppressing the price.  And I also think we have a noble spirit (or trickster) putting up the two walls @ 5.4 and 5.2, otherwise we'd be dooooooowwwwnnn...

[StewartJ]

Looks like this will be our new trading range for a while...

[Mushoz]

Looks like this will be our new trading range for a while...

You're basing the bottom of a trading range on a single spike?

[Crypt_Current]

Riddle me this Batman...

What happens to price after hourly RSI goes into overbought oversold territory?

Up?

[P4man]

Some quick math..
According to  rowit there are currently only ~30K hosts:



(and steadily going down!).

Lets assume thats 30K bitcoin users.
Also assuming all btc were available for purchase (which Im sure is not the case - yet), the market cap of the btc chain is currently ~$50M. That is $1600 on average for every user. My crystal ball says thats still way too much.

The current price level would make more sense to me if there were 10x more users doing 10x  more trade. That may or may not happen, and as long as there is hope, people will hoard coins, but currently $1 per BTC seems more reasonable to me than $10 and unless adoption begins to increase instead of decrease , even the hoarders will get out at some point.

[elux]

When all is said and done, this may well be remembered as the second Bitcoin bubble.

[mc_lovin]

it's a rocky road but everytime i see the price dip and spike I imagine someone profiting tens of thousands of dollars, somewhere.

[Technomage]

To me this is about taking a stand. The recent development was a credibility hit to Bitcoin but the price still went down "only" 20% which is less than it has in the past. To avoid a 50% drop which would be a massive credibility hit, people need to take a stand. You either support Bitcoin or you don't and now is the time to show that support or not if that is your decision.

I rarely make these kinds of posts but I honestly believe that this is a critical situation right now. We either make this recent development a bigger issue than it was, or we don't. It's our choice collectively.

And by showing support I don't necessarily mean buying now or going all-in at Bitcoinica, I mean choosing a position which you'll hold. No matter what.

[Crypt_Current]

To me this is about taking a stand. The recent development was a credibility hit to Bitcoin but the price still went down "only" 20% which is less than it has in the past. To avoid a 50% drop which would be a massive credibility hit, people need to take a stand. You either support Bitcoin or you don't and now is the time to show that support or not if that is your decision.

I rarely make these kinds of posts but I honestly believe that this is a critical situation right now. We either make this recent development a bigger issue than it was, or we don't. It's our choice collectively.

And by showing support I don't necessarily mean buying now or going all-in at Bitcoinica, I mean choosing a position which you'll hold. No matter what.

+1

Which do you believe in harder, BTC or USD?
Unfortunately, the daily dependency that we have on USD is a major factor in this.  For poorer people such as myself, this is a very difficult stand to take -- possibly the most difficult I've ever faced.  I literally have to scrape together every dollar I can muster just to keep food in the (mini) fridge, and sometimes this means I have to sell some BTC I have mined.  And if you're wondering how I "afforded" mining hardware in the first place -- I really didn't.  I spent all my Pell grant excess on it, which has severly crippled me and my loved ones in the short term.  Taking a stand, indeed.

[StewartJ]

We were in a 2-week mini bubble since the beginning of January.

We have corrected back down to $5.50, where we had been heading as the next "genuine" support price (1st week of January)

Curious to see how it shakes out.

[naima53]

To me this is about taking a stand. The recent development was a credibility hit to Bitcoin but the price still went down "only" 20% which is less than it has in the past. To avoid a 50% drop which would be a massive credibility hit, people need to take a stand. You either support Bitcoin or you don't and now is the time to show that support or not if that is your decision.

I rarely make these kinds of posts but I honestly believe that this is a critical situation right now. We either make this recent development a bigger issue than it was, or we don't. It's our choice collectively.

And by showing support I don't necessarily mean buying now or going all-in at Bitcoinica, I mean choosing a position which you'll hold. No matter what.

+1
 I want to "support" bitcoin, to buy right now in a strong support zone! Yesterday I have earned the large sum of money but I can not whitdraw from bitcoinica "temporary mtgox limit is riched" 

[StewartJ]

Some quick math..
According to  rowit there are currently only ~30K hosts:



(and steadily going down!).

Lets assume thats 30K bitcoin users.
Also assuming all btc were available for purchase (which Im sure is not the case - yet), the market cap of the btc chain is currently ~$50M. That is $1600 on average for every user. My crystal ball says thats still way too much.

The current price level would make more sense to me if there were 10x more users doing 10x  more trade. That may or may not happen, and as long as there is hope, people will hoard coins, but currently $1 per BTC seems more reasonable to me than $10 and unless adoption begins to increase instead of decrease , even the hoarders will get out at some point.

Your basing the price of a bitcoin on fundamentals.

That would be a nice thing in theory. But as we all know, its really based on speculation.

[jojo69]

I am fairly optimistic

I thought the big swing was going to buzz down to 5.55 and then break lower in a total rout

instead we weather 3 more large profit takings and settle near 5.70

It is true. the long term uptrend is yet to even be tested in this recent turn of events, we should test it some time in the next couple days

[StewartJ]

A trading range indicated, before our 2-week bubble:

[StewartJ]

OK here it goes:

1. Jan 25: $6.20
2. Feb 1: $6.75
3. Mar 1: $8.20

Based on upward trend from December 1 to January 4th  (Pre-Bubble data)

[S3052]

So let's hear some guesses for the price on
1. Jan 25
2. Feb 1
3. Mar 1

I don't do this very often, because I don't see much merit in it, but here goes...

1. Jan 25: $6.50
2. Feb 1: $7.20
3. Mar 1: $9.70

BTW I think that will take over $4M.

There is a good chance it won't stop at 9.7 $ but hit 10 $

[Mushoz]

So let's hear some guesses for the price on
1. Jan 25
2. Feb 1
3. Mar 1

I don't do this very often, because I don't see much merit in it, but here goes...

1. Jan 25: $6.50
2. Feb 1: $7.20
3. Mar 1: $9.70

BTW I think that will take over $4M.

There is a good chance it won't stop at 9.7 $ but hit 10 $

What's your view/guess?

[P4man]

If you want to support bitcoin, spend them. Hoarding them doesnt help anyone.

[Bro]

wow, calm after the storm!! so stable

maybe it's gonna explode again

[jojo69]

nice call bro

[ForceField]

If you want to support bitcoin, spend them. Hoarding them doesnt help anyone.

I agree, if there is no circulation its value will deflate to nothing. Similarly if generation > circulation then its value will slowly but surely deteriorate.

And if you're looking for something to spend them on take a look at my items for sale:

PC Hardware & Electronics: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40323

Gold: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58753

PS3 Games: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=25221

More: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=25143

More: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58474

More: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58495

[ineededausername]

a strange thing is happening.. it's maintaining a level of >5.8 and going UP despite a huge imbalance in the orderbook. 

[Crypt_Current]

a strange thing is happening.. it's maintaining a level of >5.8 and going UP despite a huge imbalance in the orderbook. 

Does this have anything to do with that thing you said was maybe going to happen around 3am EST?

[notme]

a strange thing is happening.. it's maintaining a level of >5.8 and going UP despite a huge imbalance in the orderbook. 

Lots of buy orders waiting on bitcoinica in spite of bullseye... Every sell order is handled internally.

[StewartJ]

a strange thing is happening.. it's maintaining a level of >5.8 and going UP despite a huge imbalance in the orderbook. 

Is this a danger signal, for another correction?

[jojo69]

I dunno, pretty ripe for a profit taking about now

[NamelessOne]

I dunno, pretty ripe for a profit taking about now

I agree with this, this 'rally' seems to have come a wee bit too fast.

[apetersson]

smells like short squeeze to me. relatively low volume barely any bid support. but who knows where this leaks since we are still continuing the uptrend from the last weeks.

[cypherdoc]

how fitting.

Wave 3 starting after all the weak hands have been shaken out or liquidated.

[pirateat40]

*Grrrrrrrrr's*

[jojo69]

we shall see

[NamelessOne]

There also seems to be what I call 'I want a rally bot' happening. I've seen it before. Someone or their bot constantly places buys at the current price of 150 - 200 - 300 btc, forcing people to either sell to remove the wall, and encourages people to keep pushing the price up. Often when sold into it will disappear before coming back later. And eventually it stops.

Edit: When there is a couple BTC difference between the buys and sells, it seems that it will slowly go up a couple BTC, gradually pushing the price up if the market is responding.

[jojo69]

And eventually it stops.

in a big volume spike of profit taking

[ineededausername]

a strange thing is happening.. it's maintaining a level of >5.8 and going UP despite a huge imbalance in the orderbook. 

Again with the order book?

The truth is, depth does matter in situations with little to no depth.  A spike could easily wipe us out, for example, all the way down to 5.5, and we would probably end up lower. 

[jojo69]

I want to see some confirmation and volume

this could go either way

[cypherdoc]

I want to see some confirmation and volume

this could go either way

this is exactly the psychology that will keep you out and eventually force you to chase the rise.

the shake out damages everyone's confidence and thats precisely when the market makes its move.

listen to the silence here on the Spec Forum.  most everyone is dead.

[arepo]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

[notme]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

Please put your money where your mouth is:
www.bitcoinica.com

[NamelessOne]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

What about the long term trend line?

[Serge]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

HUGE RALLY ON THE WAY.  you'll be dreaming to get at $7 when it doubles

[jojo69]

I want to see some confirmation and volume

this could go either way

this is exactly the psychology that will keep you out and eventually force you to chase the rise.

the shake out damages everyone's confidence and thats precisely when the market makes its move.

listen to the silence here on the Spec Forum.  most everyone is dead.

Oh, I get that, and I respect your analysis

I have no problem taking my haircut to get on the train, I tend to trade pretty close to the current price anyway, I'm just not sure it has steam up just yet.



I see it break this? I'm on it like flies on dung

[arepo]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

Please put your money where your mouth is:
www.bitcoinica.com

i don't trade on bitcoinica because i don't need leverage to achieve the maximum risk i am willing to take. my money 'is where my mouth is' right now, i pulled out of my long position right before the crash, took my 50+% returns, and have bids set at $4-5 so i can catch the next serrated edge of the...

fall
ling
kn
i
f
e

im all in usd and you should be too

[arepo]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

What about the long term trend line?

no trend, echo bubble. take a look at the daily-scale oscillators:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gMACDzi2gMFIzi3gRSIzi4gWilliamRzv

MACD crossed awhile ago. MFI, RSI, and William's have all been in overbought zone for months and are now starting to zig-zag down.

[antoineph]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

HUGE RALLY ON THE WAY.  you'll be dreaming to get at $7 when it doubles

Someone is wrong.

[Serge]

this is just the beginning. triple, quadruple, top. we're going down from here. there isn't enough faith in bitcoin to sustain prices over $7, remember the summer bubble was just this year. doubt prevented the 'obvious' rally to $8, and nothing's changed except a MASSIVE long squeeze reminding everyone just how risky their positions are. the slopes on each side up, then down from $7 demonstrate that what we saw was an echo bubble. expect a correction to the 'true' value of bitcoin (it will be above $2, that was an overcorrection). but we're going down from here.

bull market is over, for now.

HUGE RALLY ON THE WAY.  you'll be dreaming to get at $7 when it doubles

Someone is wrong.

anything's possible.

i was wrong on occasion of Bitcoinica providing fair balance to crazy market until someone decided to rock that boat.

after all what happened last night we're still at $6 not $1, $2, $3 or even $4.
there is no sentiment or signals indicating that movement that started in November is in reversal.  We are moving up and forward. If we continue to grow slowly like we have been so far, we'll be very fine. i say good luck waiting for price to drop below $1 or even $2

[antoineph]

I didn't say who was wrong  

[Serge]

I didn't say who was wrong  

it's alright, my statement deserved explanation anyway

[jojo69]

We won't have to wait long.

could be several days yet

[Sargasm]

Sweet spot @ 6 it looks like...

I'm buying at 6.20 ATM...

I don't mind losing a little skin to gain an arm and a leg.