Does martingale really works?

[boumalo]

By the way, I sent those 0.02 BTC directly from my just-dice account to 1CNPpAx, is that a problem? (it's still not on the blockchain)

Yeah, that would have been a problem, 'cos I said I would send winnings back to the sending address, which in your case is a random address in the JD hot wallet.  But since only 3 people played and they all have JD accounts, I'll just pay their winnings directly to their JD accounts.

Notice that the 50 BTC is all used up now, so I'll announce the result early:

10:26:06 (484707) <H.dandiilion> Withdrawal successful. Sent 47.99999800 to [1CNPpAxC].
10:26:14 (484707) <H.dandiilion> shit this is going to be the longest week ever.
10:26:20 (715770) <Homosexual> HOLY SHIT
10:26:25 (778360) <may> 30 fucking k
10:26:25 (99999) <I hustle harder> Gl
10:26:28 (678506) <ricky> just fill the bet and let us know lol
10:26:30 (484707) <H.dandiilion> left 1BTC open for others...

I fill the remaining <1 BTC myself just to get it over with.  And now my script is checking for the longest streak.

Then this happened:

10:30:49 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> Dandiilion you want to do insured $5000 with a $3000 kick back on a win?
10:32:13 (484707) <H.dandiilion> BAC that sounds good to me . im going out now, ill PM you my email so we can coordinate this later?
10:32:20 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> Sounds good
10:32:39 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> ya I'm going to enjoy my day and try nto to think about it too, but I really don't think there has been a 28 on 1 user

so I'll wait and give them a chance to work out their insurance deal before announcing the result.

Of course, I don't know how long the script will take to run either.

Thanks for playing everyone.

(568076) <ford>          1.0000000
 (forum) <f3tus>         0.0019001
(484707) <H.dandiilion> 47.9999980
     (1) <dooglus>       0.9981019

This is very entertaining, dooglus you are very active lately

"Does martingale really work?", I couldn't grasp the concept that it didn't when I was 10, I was missing something

[dooglus]

And now my script is checking for the longest streak.

Then this happened:

10:30:49 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> Dandiilion you want to do insured $5000 with a $3000 kick back on a win?
10:32:13 (484707) <H.dandiilion> BAC that sounds good to me . im going out now, ill PM you my email so we can coordinate this later?
10:32:20 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> Sounds good
10:32:39 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> ya I'm going to enjoy my day and try nto to think about it too, but I really don't think there has been a 28 on 1 user

so I'll wait and give them a chance to work out their insurance deal before announcing the result.

Well, it sounds like they worked it out:

13:58:56 (484707) <H.dandiilion> deb so does doog know that BAC and i settled on the insurance policy?
13:59:25 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> He doesn't. if yo could forward that email on to him and sign it so he know it came from you that'd be clutch
13:59:25 (2) <@Deb> i am not sure dandi, he's out by the fire
13:59:35 (2) <@Deb> i'll be heading out after i shower so i'll let him know and bring him a ceaser
13:59:39 (484707) <H.dandiilion> ok thanks
13:59:41 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> I just sent the email with the basic outline
13:59:51 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> Yeee ha man fuck! Start to a interesting week lol
13:59:53 (10282) <@dooglus> im here
14:01:16 (10282) <@dooglus> what's the insurance deal?
14:01:30 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> So the insurance deal is that... (typing)
14:02:27 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> I am insuring dandiilions bet for $5000 USD which will be wired to him if there is a 28+ streak, but if it wins $3000 usd @ bitstamp is payable to me.
14:03:12 (484707) <H.dandiilion> yep, we spoke it out on the phone and via email and both agreed to it
14:04:29 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> We are gambling a 28 streak + hadn't happened within the first 1.2 billion bets @ 49.5% only
14:04:42 (10282) <@dooglus> bay, you bet 5k to win 3k? would have been better to bet direct against me, no?
14:05:56 (99999) <BayAreaCoins> I insured $5k to earn $3k the money is tied up in the equity of my car. Which I wouldn't want to be my car equity against you + the bitcoin market

Here's a list of the 100 longest winning streaks at 49.5%, where the profit was positive (not zero).  Each line is the streak length, and the userid of the streaker:

$ for i in *; do echo $(uniq -c $i | grep W | sort -rn | head -1) $i | grep W; done | sort -n | tail -100
20 W 282697
20 W 294339
20 W 300073
20 W 302505
20 W 302833
20 W 310289
20 W 3227
20 W 32317
20 W 362443
20 W 370042
20 W 379321
20 W 469633
20 W 470587
20 W 4798
20 W 508299
20 W 519365
20 W 526784
20 W 530221
20 W 533265
20 W 549679
20 W 549683
20 W 605697
20 W 727506
20 W 739032
20 W 765065
20 W 77084
20 W 78414
20 W 79646
20 W 80741
20 W 92222
21 W 111638
21 W 123329
21 W 125576
21 W 158
21 W 1738
21 W 19996
21 W 204176
21 W 222535
21 W 225080
21 W 239069
21 W 317062
21 W 326879
21 W 33399
21 W 369108
21 W 385412
21 W 410181
21 W 452419
21 W 515376
21 W 519371
21 W 526717
21 W 526743
21 W 526745
21 W 526782
21 W 555686
21 W 634019
21 W 654328
21 W 662180
21 W 78225
21 W 83400
22 W 103960
22 W 152350
22 W 161766
22 W 171573
22 W 180961
22 W 182523
22 W 200838
22 W 20448
22 W 249090
22 W 256069
22 W 294213
22 W 304388
22 W 378211
22 W 388877
22 W 526751
22 W 599043
22 W 73985
22 W 87229
23 W 134021
23 W 186790
23 W 206005
23 W 260630
23 W 323674
23 W 526758
23 W 549673
23 W 655972
23 W 700437
24 W 103208
24 W 187574
24 W 235173
24 W 302726
24 W 599518
25 W 3413
26 W 278807
26 W 3922
26 W 78612
27 W 139322
27 W 192914
27 W 225202
27 W 339455
30 W 372839

So four 27's and a 30.

Here's a list of the bets in the winning 30-streak.  The player was martingaling, so won 30 tiny amounts:

      betid stake  nonce    uid profit
   --------- ----- ------ ------ ------
   473313691   160 495556 372839   -160
 1 473313754   320 495557 372839    320
 2 473313823   160 495558 372839    160
 3 473313885   160 495559 372839    160
 4 473313950   160 495560 372839    160
 5 473314009   160 495561 372839    160
 6 473314075   160 495562 372839    160
 7 473314135   160 495563 372839    160
 8 473314188   160 495564 372839    160
 9 473314257   160 495565 372839    160
10 473314324   160 495566 372839    160
11 473314388   160 495567 372839    160
12 473314491   160 495568 372839    160
13 473314528   160 495569 372839    160
14 473314586   160 495570 372839    160
15 473314651   160 495571 372839    160
16 473314717   160 495572 372839    160
17 473314772   160 495573 372839    160
18 473314845   160 495574 372839    160
19 473314920   160 495575 372839    160
20 473314976   160 495576 372839    160
21 473315049   160 495577 372839    160
22 473315169   160 495578 372839    160
23 473315209   160 495579 372839    160
24 473315266   160 495580 372839    160
25 473315338   160 495581 372839    160
26 473315406   160 495582 372839    160
27 473315472   160 495583 372839    160
28 473315534   160 495584 372839    160
29 473315626   160 495585 372839    160
30 473315681   160 495586 372839    160
   473315741   160 495587 372839   -160

And here's a list of the 100 longest losing streaks at 49.5% where each bet has a non-zero profit:

$ for i in *; do echo $(uniq -c $i | grep L | sort -rn | head -1) $i | grep L; done | sort -n | tail -100
21 L 123329
21 L 139322
21 L 155246
21 L 156910
21 L 161759
21 L 161765
21 L 164897
21 L 185125
21 L 192120
21 L 215551
21 L 216258
21 L 275876
21 L 286057
21 L 289804
21 L 310083
21 L 316780
21 L 325825
21 L 330029
21 L 338408
21 L 343106
21 L 354070
21 L 360857
21 L 372061
21 L 372839
21 L 375799
21 L 378242
21 L 39668
21 L 424648
21 L 45893
21 L 465395
21 L 4798
21 L 480895
21 L 519371
21 L 526717
21 L 526741
21 L 526762
21 L 533921
21 L 549677
21 L 549707
21 L 618438
21 L 653609
21 L 85812
21 L 87167
22 L 112131
22 L 115042
22 L 118640
22 L 125006
22 L 133722
22 L 193737
22 L 19950
22 L 203486
22 L 205311
22 L 276855
22 L 30938
22 L 310289
22 L 318542
22 L 348151
22 L 372836
22 L 385603
22 L 388877
22 L 62936
22 L 642366
22 L 669852
22 L 682975
22 L 81411
22 L 8509
22 L 96615
23 L 11803
23 L 163677
23 L 188434
23 L 204176
23 L 235173
23 L 278807
23 L 293527
23 L 300073
23 L 378251
23 L 508404
23 L 526737
23 L 526743
23 L 549679
23 L 728547
23 L 73053
23 L 78761
23 L 920
24 L 118678
24 L 222907
24 L 3557
24 L 530224
24 L 62406
24 L 94410
25 L 267510
25 L 290559
25 L 347607
25 L 465366
25 L 541642
26 L 184460
26 L 323674
26 L 344903
27 L 549680
32 L 260630

So just one streak of length 27 (which we've already seen), and one of length 32!

Here's a list of the bets in the streak:

      betid   stake  nonce    uid   profit
   --------- ------- ------ ------ --------
   594728180     200 291908 260630      200
 1 594728262     200 291909 260630     -200
 2 594728310     400 291910 260630     -400
 3 594728381     800 291911 260630     -800
 4 594728434    1600 291912 260630    -1600
 5 594728498    3200 291913 260630    -3200
 6 594728551    6400 291914 260630    -6400
 7 594728607   12800 291915 260630   -12800
 8 594728687   25600 291916 260630   -25600
 9 594728733   51200 291917 260630   -51200
10 594728808  102400 291918 260630  -102400
11 594728856  204800 291919 260630  -204800
12 594728945  409600 291920 260630  -409600
13 594729004  819200 291921 260630  -819200
14 594729067 1638400 291922 260630 -1638400
15 594729122 3276800 291923 260630 -3276800
16 594729172 6553600 291924 260630 -6553600
17 594782307       1 291925 260630       -1
18 594782760       1 291926 260630       -1
19 594783201       1 291927 260630       -1
20 594783572       1 291928 260630       -1
21 594784018       1 291929 260630       -1
22 594784410       1 291930 260630       -1
23 594784957       1 291931 260630       -1
24 594785353       1 291932 260630       -1
25 594785745       1 291933 260630       -1
26 594786161       1 291934 260630       -1
27 594786631       1 291935 260630       -1
28 594787075       1 291936 260630       -1
29 594787506       1 291937 260630       -1
30 594789249       1 291938 260630       -1
31 594790116       1 291939 260630       -1
32 594791171       1 291940 260630       -1
   594791672       1 291941 260630        1

and here's output from my bet verifier which generates rolls from seeds:

$ ./lucky.js 291908 34 2b193ae83a088ca11f808ef4db9da4bc68c4a01b317fd104cd8e79fc7d9a7f0c 308408532456769456759112 i58i8SlIDoo2paZ_7OP9OVvJNB2MHm4i8rJU7DoMfbl4BwaH4mov1hMfT8RqROua 49.5 H
291908 : W 64.113
291909 : L 39.087
291910 : L 22.8078
291911 : L 16.018
291912 : L 33.0224
291913 : L 28.0317
291914 : L 9.4917
291915 : L 19.9247
291916 : L 46.2364
291917 : L 36.2265
291918 : L 29.941
291919 : L 19.2585
291920 : L 49.8742
291921 : L 5.7423
291922 : L 20.5929
291923 : L 15.4772
291924 : L 27.068
291925 : L 5.0728
291926 : L 18.1911
291927 : L 3.3703
291928 : L 3.891
291929 : L 47.9745
291930 : L 46.4776
291931 : L 26.3415
291932 : L 19.6482
291933 : L 44.9941
291934 : L 47.9113
291935 : L 3.5476
291936 : L 6.4686
291937 : L 17.3988
291938 : L 44.617
291939 : L 16.4191
291940 : L 6.9321
291941 : W 54.4194

Finally, confirmation from the database which holds the bet archive:

> select * from bets where uid=260630 and betid >= 594728180 and betid <= 594791672 order by betid;
+-----------+---------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------------------+----------+
| betid     | bet     | high | chance | nonce  | secid  | uid    | date                | profit   |
+-----------+---------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------------------+----------+
| 594728180 |     200 |    1 | 495000 | 291908 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:41 |      200 |
| 594728262 |     200 |    1 | 495000 | 291909 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:42 |     -200 |
| 594728310 |     400 |    1 | 495000 | 291910 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:43 |     -400 |
| 594728381 |     800 |    1 | 495000 | 291911 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:44 |     -800 |
| 594728434 |    1600 |    1 | 495000 | 291912 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:45 |    -1600 |
| 594728498 |    3200 |    1 | 495000 | 291913 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:45 |    -3200 |
| 594728551 |    6400 |    1 | 495000 | 291914 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:46 |    -6400 |
| 594728607 |   12800 |    1 | 495000 | 291915 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:47 |   -12800 |
| 594728687 |   25600 |    1 | 495000 | 291916 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:48 |   -25600 |
| 594728733 |   51200 |    1 | 495000 | 291917 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:49 |   -51200 |
| 594728808 |  102400 |    1 | 495000 | 291918 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:50 |  -102400 |
| 594728856 |  204800 |    1 | 495000 | 291919 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:50 |  -204800 |
| 594728945 |  409600 |    1 | 495000 | 291920 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:51 |  -409600 |
| 594729004 |  819200 |    1 | 495000 | 291921 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:52 |  -819200 |
| 594729067 | 1638400 |    1 | 495000 | 291922 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:53 | -1638400 |
| 594729122 | 3276800 |    1 | 495000 | 291923 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:54 | -3276800 |
| 594729172 | 6553600 |    1 | 495000 | 291924 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:42:55 | -6553600 |
| 594782307 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291925 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:54:43 |       -1 |
| 594782760 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291926 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:54:49 |       -1 |
| 594783201 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291927 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:54:55 |       -1 |
| 594783572 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291928 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:00 |       -1 |
| 594784018 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291929 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:06 |       -1 |
| 594784410 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291930 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:11 |       -1 |
| 594784957 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291931 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:18 |       -1 |
| 594785353 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291932 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:23 |       -1 |
| 594785745 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291933 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:28 |       -1 |
| 594786161 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291934 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:33 |       -1 |
| 594786631 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291935 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:39 |       -1 |
| 594787075 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291936 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:45 |       -1 |
| 594787506 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291937 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:55:50 |       -1 |
| 594789249 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291938 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:56:13 |       -1 |
| 594790116 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291939 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:56:24 |       -1 |
| 594791171 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291940 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:56:39 |       -1 |
| 594791672 |       1 |    1 | 495000 | 291941 | 448249 | 260630 | 2014-02-07 20:56:46 |        1 |
+-----------+---------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+---------------------+----------+

I don't know what to say.  I feel bad for Dandi losing so much.  I feel stupid having offered such a large bet.  Initially I wasn't going to mention a cap, thinking people would only bet fractions of a bitcoin each.  Then I realised someone might want to bet thousands and I wouldn't be able to cover it.  So I put a stupidly high cap on it.  And then Dandi bet the maximum.

Thanks for playing I guess.  I'll do good deeds with the coins.

[dooglus]

i bet there is one 31 bet losing streak

... you would have either won or lost depending on whether you mean "exactly 31" or "at least 31".  There's a 32!

[BayAreaCoins]

Well fuck. I'll get that wire out this week.

gg

[ruru]

Hey doog, if you feel bad about losing, you can distribute it to investors

14:25:19 (1) <@dooglus> I feel bad about this

[f3tus]

Holy fu*k! I'd be without a house and liver right now! I'm glad I only bet 0.002, lol!

We can go down in history for making a 30k bet on whether or not a losing streak of 28 happened, which is kinda cool. Not really, though, lol.

Also to the guy that lost 32 times... You'd have more chance getting struck by lightening 10 times in a row.

[dooglus]

Holy fu*k! I'd be without a house and liver right now! I'm glad I only bet 0.002, lol!

We can go down in history for making a 30k bet on whether or not a losing streak of 28 happened, which is kinda cool. Not really, though, lol.

Also to the guy that lost 32 times... You'd have more chance getting struck by lightening 10 times in a row.

Interesting that there are 5 winning streaks of 27 or longer but only 2 losing streaks that long. At 49.5% you would expect more long losing streaks then winning ones.

[dooglus]

But since only 3 people played and they all have JD accounts, I'll just pay their winnings directly to their JD accounts.

3, not 4? I know my wager is pretty worthless, but seems like somebody is missing (based on the blockchain info):

(568076) <ford>          1.0000000
 (forum) <f3tus>         0.0019001
(484707) <H.dandiilion> 47.9999980
     (1) <dooglus>       0.9981019

The 4th was me, just wanting to put an end to it. I couldn't bear to wait a week before checking the result.

[seuntjie]

This was quite an interesting read.

Doog you could always donate some (50% ?) of your winnings to the rainjar at JD.

[f3tus]

Interesting that there are 5 winning streaks of 27 or longer but only 2 losing streaks that long. At 49.5% you would expect more long losing streaks then winning ones.

I guess the 0.5% doesn't make that much of a difference. (I keep telling myself that)

The 4th was me, just wanting to put an end to it. I couldn't bear to wait a week before checking the result.

Ah I see now, guess I've missed it. At least you spared some poor sucker/s, heh.

Doog you could always donate some (50% ?) of your winnings to the rainjar at JD.

And make it rain 0.1

[jpcfan]

But since only 3 people played and they all have JD accounts, I'll just pay their winnings directly to their JD accounts.

3, not 4? I know my wager is pretty worthless, but seems like somebody is missing (based on the blockchain info):

(568076) <ford>          1.0000000
 (forum) <f3tus>         0.0019001
(484707) <H.dandiilion> 47.9999980
     (1) <dooglus>       0.9981019

i bet there is one 31 bet losing streak

LOL! Now that's a bet I'm willing to wager my house and liver on!

omaha poker says to leave house keys under the mat


and for the liver, you can keep it.

[f3tus]

omaha poker says to leave house keys under the mat


and for the liver, you can keep it.

It's all or nothing! 

[Light]

The 4th was me, just wanting to put an end to it. I couldn't bear to wait a week before checking the result.

Ouch, poor dandiilion that's quite a bit to lose. I'm glad I didn't make the play - seemed less likely than that +100 odds you were offering doog. Interesting to see such a massive set of losing streaks, would've freaked out the person who got them.

[sukamasoto]

I always lose using the martingale strategy requires large capital

[dooglus]

Very interesting bet.

Would it be considered cheating to ask exactly how many of those were 49.5%?  

Not at all!  

357,937,388 were at 49.5%

Of those:

175,833,708 had positive profit
179,380,878 had negative profit
2,722,802 had zero profit (and so I can't immediately tell if they won or lost, being 0 BTC bets)

>>> 175833708 * 100.00 / (175833708 + 179380878) = 49.5007

49.5007% of the non-zero bets at 49.5% won!

Oh, and only 22,807 different accounts made bets at 49.5%.

[Joca97]

Very interesting bet.

Would it be considered cheating to ask exactly how many of those were 49.5%? 

Not at all!  

357,937,388 were at 49.5%

Of those:

175,833,708 had positive profit
179,380,878 had negative profit
2,722,802 had zero profit (and so I can't immediately tell if they won or lost, being 0 BTC bets)

>>> 175833708 * 100.00 / (175833708 + 179380878) = 49.5007

49.5007% of the non-zero bets at 49.5% won!

so martingale is a fail

[dooglus]

so martingale is a fail

A few JD players have done incredibly well using martingale betting.

Most who try it end up losing though.

So yes.

[Cryptopher]

so martingale is a fail

A few JD players have done incredibly well using martingale betting.

Most who try it end up losing though.

So yes.

There is clearly a lot of room for skill and patience within the game of luck. Smart players who know what they to expect likely do well, most of the time.

I can imagine that there are some who come along, throw a bunch of coin and double their money. Question is do they quit or play for more?

[elephantas1]

I won with martingale 0.4 out of 0.02 on 999dice.

I bet 200 bets, main bet 0.0002 chance of winning 25% every loose x1.5.

[jambola2]

Very interesting bet.

Would it be considered cheating to ask exactly how many of those were 49.5%? 

Not at all!  

357,937,388 were at 49.5%

Of those:

175,833,708 had positive profit
179,380,878 had negative profit
2,722,802 had zero profit (and so I can't immediately tell if they won or lost, being 0 BTC bets)

>>> 175833708 * 100.00 / (175833708 + 179380878) = 49.5007

49.5007% of the non-zero bets at 49.5% won!

so martingale is a fail

Wow , that seems really accurate to the odds.

Mathematically , what would the average error % of the odds be ? That seems too close to the given odds to be true.