Does martingale really works?

[kuverty]

...there usually there are some magical beliefs involved.

Belief in divine intervention and magic in unlikely streaks is a pervasive part of all of human culture. You can show thousands of writings and stories. The Pythagoreans who invented the famous triangle theorem were a religious group.

Surely. But unfounded magical beliefs about the game are not really good for a gambler. And mostly it is just ignorance anyway that leads to those beliefs. Nothing wrong with that per se, no one here is completely rational and we all have our strange beliefs and biases whether we choose to accept it or not.

[dooglus]

If they agree on a time when the bets will be placed, then the documentation will have the timestamp, and it won't be possible to cheat. Plus you can easily produce the entire history of bets under a name, and so you have a record of all bets. The person placing the bets can't hide a win, and simply do another bet at a later time.

The person placing the bets can simply agree to only place N bets per week, and never 'randomize' the seeds.  Then each week he publishes his N betids, and all participants can look up the rolls on the site and see that the seed hash is the same as it should be, and that the 'nonce' values are consecutive.

If there are any gaps in the nonce sequence then he's probably hiding a big win from you.

[forever21]

i wouldnt trust on a martingale method its a part of gambling anyway you are also risking your money on it or maybe you can trust it but the system of the betting site/casino is really unpredictable

[PacoMartin]

Surely. But unfounded magical beliefs about the game are not really good for a gambler. And mostly it is just ignorance anyway that leads to those beliefs. Nothing wrong with that per se, no one here is completely rational and we all have our strange beliefs and biases whether we choose to accept it or not.

http://www.amazon.com/Roll-Bones-The-History-Gambling/dp/1592402089
You might want to grab a copy of Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling

You may have heard of the curse put on the Presidency by Tecumseh, the Indian chief whose brother was killed in the Battle of Tippecanoe. The presidents who won the the 1840,1860,1880,1900,1920, 1940, and 1960 elections all died in office although not necessarily in that term (with one president dying in office not elected in a zero year). People ask "What is the chance of that happening randomly?". They conclude that it is impossibly low, and must be supernatural.

The story continues with Ronald Reagan being shot, and receiving wounds that would have killed a man in 1840. It would seem that this curse cannot upgrade itself to medical advances.

[holliehardballer2269]

I would say martainfail for the most part. Ive had some good sessions where i have made some profit and i think the key is to stop when your ahead. It only takes one terrible streak to lose everything which is pretty inevitable. I still use that mainly when dicing and playing roulette but it certainly isnt foolproof. Thats my 2 cents.

[PacoMartin]

I would say martainfail for the most part.

If you think about it the question "What is the average number of plays before you get a string of losses of some length?" is a perfectly well defined question with a specific answer.

If you toss a coin until you lose, then on average you will toss it 2 times.
In Vector notation that is the dot product <1,2,3,4,...> * < 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/16, ... > = 2

If you toss a coin until you lose two times in a row, then on average you will toss it 6 times.

If you toss a coin until you lose six times in a row, then on average you will toss it ? times.

If you don't know how to do this problem, then read the paper dooglus and I wrote. Please comment
https://just-dice.com/Just%20Dice%20Streak%20Bet.pdf

[Wendigo]

Wow Just-Dice bankroll is 50 000 BTC ? Do you even pay any taxes on that?

[PacoMartin]

The person placing the bets can simply agree to only place N bets per week, and never 'randomize' the seeds.  Then each week he publishes his N betids, and all participants can look up the rolls on the site and see that the seed hash is the same as it should be, and that the 'nonce' values are consecutive.

If there are any gaps in the nonce sequence then he's probably hiding a big win from you.

You could be the patron saint of the working class, by giving them a fair game without concerns about cheating colleagues or having half their money stolen by rapacious lottery operators. On the other hand you would probably get blamed for bitcoin fluctuations, general concerns about integrity with online gaming, etc.

Do you have any estimate on how many coins Nawaka brought to the table. I can see a lot of difficulty making that calculation, but I was curious. Did he bring 10K coins to the table to win 10K coins?

[PacoMartin]

Wow Just-Dice bankroll is 50 000 BTC ?

I think you misunderstand. The bank is 50,000 BTC which is crowdfunded. The total amount gambled in the first year is 5.3 million BTC. Since the house edge is 1% you would expect the profit would be 53K BTC, but since the whale smashed the bank last year it was only 18.6K BTC.

Theoretically if the investors all withdrew the operators of the website would make 10% or 1860 BTC. Now that is gross, so that also pays for server maintenance, electricity and other operational expense. The fast rising value of the BTC makes that a good business, but subject to the volatility of the Bitcoin and the danger of another lucky whale. The operators can't bet as it would potentially invite charges of fraud.

I would call it a very good business bordering on a great business. But you are talking as if the person earned 50 000 BTC outright in a year.

The owner dooglus was sweating a 50 BTC proposition bet that he made.

[chaosPT]

Wow Just-Dice bankroll is 50 000 BTC ?

I think you misunderstand. The bank is 50,000 BTC which is crowdfunded. The total amount gambled in the first year is 5.3 million BTC. Since the house edge is 1% you would expect the profit would be 53K BTC, but since the whale smashed the bank last year it was only 18.6K BTC.

Theoretically if the investors all withdrew the operators of the website would make 10% or 1860 BTC. Now that is gross, so that also pays for server maintenance, electricity and other operational expense. The fast rising value of the BTC makes that a good business, but subject to the volatility of the Bitcoin and the danger of another lucky whale. The operators can't bet as it would potentially invite charges of fraud.

I would call it a very good business bordering on a great business. But you are talking as if the person earned 50 000 BTC outright in a year.

The owner dooglus was sweating a 50 BTC proposition bet that he made.

How much does the whale whack away last year ?

[Light]

Your have to ask doog for graphs regarding the accounts most I. Profit but the main one that comes to mind from last year was Nakowa. I think he managed to get up a couple of thousand at his peak but if I remember properly he left eventually with a couple of hundred if doog's sleuthing is right. Don't quote me though, you'd get more reliable information googling Nakowa.

[chaosPT]

I have read a lot about martingale you will end up losing no matter what in 500k hands

ussually burst at 23x losing streak

[chaosPT]

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

[boumalo]

Your have to ask doog for graphs regarding the accounts most I. Profit but the main one that comes to mind from last year was Nakowa. I think he managed to get up a couple of thousand at his peak but if I remember properly he left eventually with a couple of hundred if doog's sleuthing is right. Don't quote me though, you'd get more reliable information googling Nakowa.

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

dooglus estimates Nakowa's winnings @ 10k BTC :

I don't have exact numbers, because I don't know for sure which accounts were his.  But I estimate that he risked 2.5 million BTC and won 10k BTC.  The 2.5 million he risked should have netted the house 25k BTC.

So the current profit is 35k BTC short of where it should be, due to the BTC he won (10k) and the BTC he should have lost and didn't (25k).

[PacoMartin]

I have read a lot about martingale you will end up losing no matter what in 500k hands

ussually burst at 23x losing streak

https://just-dice.com/Just%20Dice%20Streak%20Bet.pdf

What you read is wrong. We wrote this paper to show people how to do this calculation.

[leex1528]

We already know Martingale is the best strategy there is, but like every other strat, you will lose eventually...its just a matter of knowing when to quit

[PacoMartin]

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

Here is a post from December 2013. It estimates Nakowa as having won 11,000 BTC in September, but now in December he lost 2300BTC
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1suwzo/bitcoin_casino_justdice_highroller_nakowa_loses/

Here is a post from September 2013 from Nakowa himself. At this point he estimates that he was up 6,000BTC. He was upset because JD lowered the maximum bet from 1% of Bank to .25% of Bank.
http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

JD has raised the max bet to .50% of Bank today.

To the best of knowledge, the only real reason to play under different names is so that the casino isn't spooked and lowers the maximum bet. Other than that, I can't see any real advantage.

The owners of the brick and mortar casino, the Golden Nugget, in 2004 struggled with this same problem very publicly as they were being filmed for a reality show by the creator of Survivor. They kept their limits very high when they took over as owners to attract the whales, but then one got lucky after they were operating for 9 or 10 months. The whale took the casino for $8.5 million in two weeks. He then packed his bags and lost it again at another casino. Statistically you would eventually make the money back, but you still have to meet the loans by investors. The owners reluctantly had to cut back their maximum bet.

[MoneyGod]

We already know Martingale is the best strategy there is, but like every other strat, you will lose eventually...its just a matter of knowing when to quit

I agree every method can work but best thing is if you are winning then you have to take time or leave for some time its best and really works for any one

[boumalo]

We already know Martingale is the best strategy there is, but like every other strat, you will lose eventually...its just a matter of knowing when to quit

You can't know when to quit

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

Here is a post from December 2013. It estimates Nakowa as having won 11,000 BTC in September, but now in December he lost 2300BTC
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1suwzo/bitcoin_casino_justdice_highroller_nakowa_loses/

Here is a post from September 2013 from Nakowa himself. At this point he estimates that he was up 6,000BTC. He was upset because JD lowered the maximum bet from 1% of Bank to .25% of Bank.
http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

JD has raised the max bet to .50% of Bank today.

To the best of knowledge, the only real reason to play under different names is so that the casino isn't spooked and lowers the maximum bet. Other than that, I can't see any real advantage.

The owners of the brick and mortar casino, the Golden Nugget, in 2004 struggled with this same problem very publicly as they were being filmed for a reality show by the creator of Survivor. They kept their limits very high when they took over as owners to attract the whales, but then one got lucky after they were operating for 9 or 10 months. The whale took the casino for $8.5 million in two weeks. He then packed his bags and lost it again at another casino. Statistically you would eventually make the money back, but you still have to meet the loans by investors. The owners reluctantly had to cut back their maximum bet.

Players like to play under different names to "change their luck" as well

[dooglus]

For the third day in a row there has been another crazy Martingale sequence on Just-Dice.  Today's was looking like a textbook "no, it doesn't work" story:



Here's the bet list:

2014-06-13 00:41:00 #1244304175: 0.05  BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:00.7533 profit: 0.50000000
2014-06-13 14:32:10 #1245662784: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:10.9146 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:32:11 #1245662813: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:18.1392 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:32:12 #1245662856: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:11.5765 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:32:13 #1245662901: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:54.3217 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:32:23 #1245663155: 0.01  BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:08.5585 profit: 0.10000000
2014-06-13 14:34:58 #1245668162: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:43.9689 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:34:59 #1245668192: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:08.6756 profit: 0.05000000
2014-06-13 14:35:52 #1245669913: 0.005 BTC @ 9% lo: lucky:06.8303 profit: 0.05000000
2014-06-13 14:36:18 #1245670834: 0.005 BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:64.5362 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:36:19 #1245670868: 0.005 BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:72.7992 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:36:20 #1245670901: 0.005 BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:00.3965 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:36:21 #1245670928: 0.005 BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:47.7635 profit:-0.00500000
2014-06-13 14:36:25 #1245671081: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:08.1365 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:36:26 #1245671115: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:49.5784 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:36:27 #1245671145: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:45.1318 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:36:28 #1245671175: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:09.9812 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:36:33 #1245671347: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:64.8656 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:36:34 #1245671375: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:47.7898 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:36:35 #1245671415: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:26.5349 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:36:36 #1245671461: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:21.8506 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:36:41 #1245671617: 0.04  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:97.2494 profit: 0.40000000
2014-06-13 14:37:45 #1245673756: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:33.8547 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:37:47 #1245673794: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:61.4345 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:37:47 #1245673824: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:41.7218 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:37:48 #1245673851: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:46.2298 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:37:54 #1245674061: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:85.6451 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:37:55 #1245674098: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:14.3989 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:37:56 #1245674126: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:01.3642 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:37:57 #1245674160: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:11.4983 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:38:03 #1245674350: 0.04  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:96.7545 profit: 0.40000000


2014-06-13 14:38:42 #1245675687: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:68.4204 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:38:43 #1245675716: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:76.6544 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:38:44 #1245675737: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:50.0012 profit:-0.01000000
2014-06-13 14:38:45 #1245675766: 0.01  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:27.7386 profit:-0.01000000

2014-06-13 14:38:50 #1245675943: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:59.6728 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:38:51 #1245675964: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:73.2064 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:38:52 #1245676035: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:24.9378 profit:-0.02000000
2014-06-13 14:38:53 #1245676071: 0.02  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:71.5192 profit:-0.02000000

2014-06-13 14:38:56 #1245676192: 0.04  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:30.5843 profit:-0.04000000
2014-06-13 14:38:57 #1245676234: 0.04  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:85.9242 profit:-0.04000000
2014-06-13 14:38:58 #1245676276: 0.04  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:10.8473 profit:-0.04000000
2014-06-13 14:39:01 #1245676365: 0.04  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:81.5004 profit:-0.04000000

2014-06-13 14:39:04 #1245676490: 0.08  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:43.9120 profit:-0.08000000
2014-06-13 14:39:06 #1245676563: 0.08  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:23.5648 profit:-0.08000000
2014-06-13 14:39:08 #1245676610: 0.08  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:26.2756 profit:-0.08000000
2014-06-13 14:39:10 #1245676658: 0.08  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:73.9017 profit:-0.08000000

2014-06-13 14:39:16 #1245676848: 0.16  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:02.5362 profit:-0.16000000
2014-06-13 14:39:17 #1245676888: 0.16  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:88.5454 profit:-0.16000000
2014-06-13 14:39:18 #1245676928: 0.16  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:40.6418 profit:-0.16000000
2014-06-13 14:39:19 #1245676976: 0.16  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:40.1056 profit:-0.16000000

2014-06-13 14:39:35 #1245677502: 0.32  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:24.3999 profit:-0.32000000
2014-06-13 14:39:36 #1245677549: 0.32  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:33.9988 profit:-0.32000000
2014-06-13 14:39:40 #1245677668: 0.32  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:76.5500 profit:-0.32000000
2014-06-13 14:39:56 #1245678113: 0.32  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:06.8119 profit:-0.32000000

2014-06-13 14:41:55 #1245682013: 0.64  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:22.4410 profit:-0.64000000
2014-06-13 14:42:04 #1245682310: 0.64  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:90.7498 profit:-0.64000000
2014-06-13 14:42:05 #1245682346: 0.64  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:52.0964 profit:-0.64000000
2014-06-13 14:42:06 #1245682380: 0.64  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:74.9434 profit:-0.64000000

2014-06-13 14:48:23 #1245695486: 1.28  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:00.2477 profit:-1.28000000
2014-06-13 14:48:25 #1245695533: 1.28  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:06.4123 profit:-1.28000000
2014-06-13 14:48:27 #1245695591: 1.28  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:00.1788 profit:-1.28000000
2014-06-13 14:48:28 #1245695627: 1.28  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:63.4538 profit:-1.28000000

2014-06-13 15:11:00 #1245741470: 2.56  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:19.8649 profit:-2.56000000
2014-06-13 15:11:02 #1245741542: 2.56  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:43.9854 profit:-2.56000000
2014-06-13 15:11:03 #1245741606: 2.56  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:85.6663 profit:-2.56000000
2014-06-13 15:11:05 #1245741655: 2.56  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:44.0836 profit:-2.56000000

but then, 32 hours after his long losing sequence he came back and made one last bet in the sequence:

2014-06-14 23:14:44 #1248223656: 5.12  BTC @ 9% hi: lucky:95.8334 profit:51.20000000

And then his chart looked like this:



Does martingale really works?

It appears that yes, sometimes it really does if you have balls of steel...

Here's how noway's win fits in with the rest of the week's gains and losses at JD:



Here are his bets broken up into Martingale progressions:

0.5
-0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005  0.1
-0.005  0.05
 0.05
-0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02  0.4
-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02  0.40
-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 -1.28 -1.28 -1.28 -1.28 -2.56 -2.56 -2.56 -2.56 51.2