KNIFE IMMINENT

[arepo]

I don't understand your charting

knife gonna knife?

see where the various functions (lines) crossover towards the negative? those are bearish signals, to put it simply.

[1714173054]

1714173054

[arepo]

If charts work, then why do people lose money in the stock market?  Are they just not looking at the charts?
Maybe a contest is in order. People could present their theroies and each could fund a wallet with 1BTC. Trading with their respective systems we could see who profits the most after 3 months.

you hit the nail on the head. whenever i bring up my analysis here i get scoffed at. i doubt many traders look at the charts, or know how to read them. i have a B.S. in physics so i've had a lot of practice reading graphical data, and i love the relationship of the fundamental theorem of calculus with the way signals work; it's fascinating.

and as for a 'contest', i've been trading based on my own analysis of just the charts at bitcoincharts since october and i'm looking at 50% returns.

one of these days, ill make a post quoting all of my correct analyses and predictions. you guys can ignore me for now, it only hurts yourselves...

[arepo]

btw, i hope you can tell the difference between this stupidity:

...and actual chart-based technical analysis. price trends constitute only half of the information in the market...

[N12]

So did we move from pessimism to panic yet?

[antoineph]

So did we move from pessimism to panic yet?

not until the real selling begins.

[N12]

In that case, let’s see if you can call the low when it happens.

[arepo]

So did we move from pessimism to panic yet?

not at all. panic is like the polar opposite of the frothing of the mouth that occurred on the forums at the peak of the $7.20 bubble. it's a sentiment thing, not exact, that wasn't exactly the pith of the OP...

[naima53]

i got out, this market is so insane i cannot find single reason to support it, i'll get back in when hits bottom

to the manipulator:  enjoy your fucking greed, hopefully the rate will stay below for so long until you lose patience and sell for pennies on the dollar.

I am not a manipulator. But if the price goes below $ 1 to fuck, I'll buy all the coins! And placing a few to buy \ sell walls ... I have no idea what would happen, but
i can consult with other reputable professionals ... The general consensus ...

[arepo]

In that case, let’s see if you can call the low when it happens.

i will predict the low, when i see the signals. it's not for a little ways still... the month-scale Chaikin oscillator is reaching a local minimum (momentum of downtrend decreasing), but i doubt this is stable. definitely still bear market.

EDIT: another small signal; AROON crossover on the 10-day scale. combined with the shifting depth on mtgoxlive, i think we might have already hit the bottom during the last downspike to $5.05. perhaps quasi-stable here, and i suspect we'll test $5.00 again. as long as the resistance holds, it will delay the falling knife. otherwise, bear market on.

[arepo]

new breaking signal!

10-day Money Flow Index just crossed strongly positive after being oversold yesterday. we may be bottoming out yet.

[sgbett]

I just looked at goxlive, and it looked a bit bullish on price action, looked like a short term rising wedge might be forming. I thought maybe we could be heading back up. Then I checked RSI hasn't bottomed OBV/PVT are still tanking. I think its a bull trap.

If we break to the upside It won't hold, it might push through 5.50 to get everyone on board, but it will top out at 5.70 and then look for new lows.

This medium term correction has to run its course, my money is still on retest of ~2.20. If we test 2.20 and it holds then that will become e early strong support level. Any lower and people will be all at sea again wondering what do.

[Bro]

so nothing happened, pretty much?

[arepo]

I just looked at goxlive, and it looked a bit bullish on price action, looked like a short term rising wedge might be forming. I thought maybe we could be heading back up. Then I checked RSI hasn't bottomed OBV/PVT are still tanking. I think its a bull trap.

If we break to the upside It won't hold, it might push through 5.50 to get everyone on board, but it will top out at 5.70 and then look for new lows.

This medium term correction has to run its course, my money is still on retest of ~2.20. If we test 2.20 and it holds then that will become e early strong support level. Any lower and people will be all at sea again wondering what do.

i think you're wrong. this movement was preceded by a few short-term indicators turning bullish. also, this:

Intraday update.

the depth at mtgoxlive is manipulated. we don't have nearly that much support on the ask side. the bottom was when we bounced off $5.05.

$5.00 will hold. i was wrong; there was no panic. maybe we're all a little more mature as traders now

[guywhogotgoxed]

because our signal isn't continuous

Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data.  You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases.

calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out).

and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c).

fantastic post. I dont think Ive seen this much nonsense in a single post in a long time.

since you can differentiate this function, why not just use the function itself to see where the price is going? guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby.

[arepo]

because our signal isn't continuous

Exactly, even if calculus was predictive, it can not be applied to discontinuous data.  You can only apply it to projections of that data, and each projection has it's own biases.

calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out).

and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c).

fantastic post. I dont think Ive seen this much nonsense in a single post in a long time.

since you can differentiate this function, why not just use the function itself to see where the price is going? guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby.

fantastic post; i haven't such blatant lack of knowledge of calculus in a single post since the person to whom i was responding when i wrote the post you quoted.

so let's see: if we have a function (discontinuous, mind you), and we want to know if its "very next" value will be higher or lower than its present, you want to know if it has a positive or negative slope. the problem, however, is a single point in a discontinuous function is NOT differentiable. so your above challenge is impossible.

HOWEVER, using charts can be almost exactly described by this intent. if one smooths the data using averages, for instance (even the data you look at when you look at price charts has been smoothed, usually by boxplots), and then graphs the derivative of this now-continuous function, you might get an idea of what kind of trend is occurring. in fact, this is extremely easy, and can be done by just about anyone during a strong trend. long-term PVT and Accumulation/Distribution Line will both be increasing, and thus the Chaikin Oscillator ('momentum' or scaled-slope of the ACC/DIST) will be relatively constant and positive. guaranteed profits, like stealing from a baby!

identifying tops and bottoms (protecting those guaranteed profits) is more difficult. using indicators that also look at volume is helpful, as price and volume are the two core pieces of "data" that are free, information-wise, in a market, and should always both be considered. also looking at oscillators which are slightly different than indicators that just act as scaled derivatives is helpful because they try to track the 'momentum' of price moves -- that is, the tendency of markets to swing from 'overbought' to 'oversold' -- which are signals of a market reversal.

tl;dr put your money where your mouth is; i've been trading on my analysis since october and am up 50%, while, though i am not one to believe everything i read, you just got 'goxed'.

[cunicula]

Shit is crap. Cut the calculus for dummies bullcrap.

Just post pictures of your shits. Superimpose some charts on the turds. That'll tell us where the market is headed.

[trogdorjw73]

tl;dr put your money where your mouth is; i've been trading on my analysis since october and am up 50%, while, though i am not one to believe everything i read, you just got 'goxed'.

So, you've been doing this since October, when we hit rock bottom pricing of $2 per BTC (and we hit that again in Dec.), and since then BTC has increased roughly three fold and you're up 50%. That's not very good, as basically luck alone and guessing you should invest when we hit $2 would have given you much greater returns.

[old_engineer]

Calculus is powerful, and I've likely known about it longer than you've been alive.  But you know what determines bitcoin price at this stage in the game?  Big players /manipulatorS, with $50k+ BTC/$250k+ USD, and when they choose to enter or exit the market.  Predict what they're going to do, and you'll know where the game is headed.  Your charts have more in common with tea leaves than with a predictive model of bitcoin prices.

[arepo]

tl;dr put your money where your mouth is; i've been trading on my analysis since october and am up 50%, while, though i am not one to believe everything i read, you just got 'goxed'.

So, you've been doing this since October, when we hit rock bottom pricing of $2 per BTC (and we hit that again in Dec.), and since then BTC has increased roughly three fold and you're up 50%. That's not very good, as basically luck alone and guessing you should invest when we hit $2 would have given you much greater returns.

did you know in october that the price was going up? nice hindsight bias, dumbass.

[arepo]

Calculus is powerful, and I've likely known about it longer than you've been alive.  But you know what determines bitcoin price at this stage in the game?  Big players /manipulatorS, with $50k+ BTC/$250k+ USD, and when they choose to enter or exit the market.  Predict what they're going to do, and you'll know where the game is headed.  Your charts have more in common with tea leaves than with a predictive model of bitcoin prices.

i've addressed this before. in fact, i've made a whole thread about it.

briefly: manipulated movements are large, sudden, unpredictable, and unprofitable except by luck.

also, "THE MANIPULATOR" is a hypothesis.

most of the volatility we see is from leveraging on bitcoinica,

and there is still an underlying trend formed by the collective movement of everybody else's trades.

in other words, manipulators move the market, charts show and predict how the market reacts to the movement.