Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[dnaleor]

I bought big when we were below 4 mBTC  
I have now 66 XMR per BTC I own

If the BTC/USd exchange rate goes down or goes flat in the next weeks, I wthink we could see XMR >0.010

Note: before this buy my average buy in price was 0 BTC (because I sold some on the way up) so this is a "real" investment

[dreamspark]

I bought big when we were below 4 mBTC  
I have now 66 XMR per BTC I own

If the BTC/USd exchange rate goes own of goes flat in the next weeks, I wthink we could see XMR >0.010

Note: before this buy my average buy in price was 0 BTC (because I sold some on the way up) so this is a "real" investment

I have the very distinct feeling that you will have a fair few more oppurtunities to buy big under 4 again.

One thing I would like to speculate on is how much as a % of whats mined do people think is being sold on market everyday?

[Wikstr80]

Hi all,

I trade cryptocurrencies and have now decided to buy XMR. I can spend 2.5 btc in total, of which I'm looking to invest a portion, so am waiting for a good moment to buy…

Here are two price charts I found (poloniex and hitbtc):

https://i.imgur.com/XAuQOzb.png?1

https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr


https://i.imgur.com/Psre7CS.png

https://hitbtc.com/terminal#XMRBTC

It seems that XMR is pretty stable now... maybe time to invest? I'm no professional in cryptocurrency trading and am not sure… What do you think?

Thanks in advance

Currently XMR is in its very early stages and its rare for such a project to get so much attention so quickly. Given this fact the currency is volatile and the swings can be quick a deep, that being said there is a lot of serious money invested in XMR so you know your not going to buy a shitcoin that goes down to 1% of your investment.

If you are worried about getting in at the best time then I would advocate cost averaging your way in at least over a few days if not weeks.

Thank you )
It is very useful information for me....

[Wikstr80]

I bought big when we were below 4 mBTC  
I have now 66 XMR per BTC I own

If the BTC/USd exchange rate goes own of goes flat in the next weeks, I wthink we could see XMR >0.010

Note: before this buy my average buy in price was 0 BTC (because I sold some on the way up) so this is a "real" investment

I have the very distinct feeling that you will have a fair few more oppurtunities to buy big under 4 again.

hmm.... Why do you think so? 

[Wikstr80]

Thanks guys,

I am going to wait few days though... nothing worse than acting on impulse just because here I am haha.
Also could someone give me some advice.. which exchange should I try? Poloniex is the leader by XMR volume but hitbtc has 0% fees now(bur can I trust it?).

[Febo]

lol i think you can trust all the same. no exchange wil try to scam you since that would be just bad advertisement. No lock that cant be broken exist on Earth, so all exchanges can also be hacked. But if you wil think only of this you will not get nowhere. Just pick exchange, and buy. put on your wallet and forget about it for a year or 2.

BTW, i never saw on Poloniex anywhere close to 500 BTC offered to buy XMR as are now. 200 BTC was for over 0.0039.

[ihuntbtc]

Gonna wait to invest a couple BTC on there.

[dreamspark]

I bought big when we were below 4 mBTC  
I have now 66 XMR per BTC I own

If the BTC/USd exchange rate goes own of goes flat in the next weeks, I wthink we could see XMR >0.010

Note: before this buy my average buy in price was 0 BTC (because I sold some on the way up) so this is a "real" investment

I have the very distinct feeling that you will have a fair few more oppurtunities to buy big under 4 again.

hmm.... Why do you think so? 

For the same reasons I explained to your post above. When the whales are done accumalating then its time to go up, its just how it works. Also as you seem quite new, never take trading advice from anyone, especally the bigger players, they will be talking their book and getting you to buy when they want to sell and sell when you want to buy.

[equipoise]

619 BTC in buy orders in Poloniex. This is the highest till now.

EDIT: 1522.47297271 BTC in buy orders now! Impressive!

[blaaaaacksuit]

619 BTC in buy orders in Poloniex. This is the highest till now.

Whats the point of adding so much buy support away from the current prices?

[kbm]

619 BTC in buy orders in Poloniex. This is the highest till now.

EDIT: 1522.47297271 BTC in buy orders now! Impressive!

Man I wish you got a screenshot of that one! I don't see it now.

That's about 15% of the marketcap chasing 1% of the total supply according to what's on the books!

[cassius69]

does anyone know how many coins miners dump on the market each day?

[equipoise]

619 BTC in buy orders in Poloniex. This is the highest till now.

EDIT: 1522.47297271 BTC in buy orders now! Impressive!

Man I wish you got a screenshot of that one! I don't see it now.

That's about 15% of the marketcap chasing 1% of the total supply according to what's on the books!

I had to take a screenshot, but I was already excited by the 619 BTC in buy orders and now I'm not even sure it was there.

[kbm]

619 BTC in buy orders in Poloniex. This is the highest till now.

EDIT: 1522.47297271 BTC in buy orders now! Impressive!

Man I wish you got a screenshot of that one! I don't see it now.

That's about 15% of the marketcap chasing 1% of the total supply according to what's on the books!

I had to take a screenshot, but I was already excited by the 619 BTC in buy orders and now I'm not even sure it was there.

Well it's 634 now, still 6.25% of the cap chasing 1%. That's still an insanely large sum.

I hope people will make some deals at these prices with all of these bitcoins and moneros on the books.

[rpietila]

Anything can happen

Even if it goes to 0.00365, the uptrend is not violated. still holds There are lots of people who capped the rally at 0.0058 by selling coins and many of them want to buy back. Also there are new buyers willing to enter. Potentially massive buyers. this is manifesting itself in huge walls, with at least one transforming to a market buy

On the other hand, many current owners are so maxxed out it's not even funny. Like 1000:1 xmr:btc. There was some exuberance when it was rising and that will be quenched. sentiment has normalized The miners' selling is pressuring the price. The coin is still useless and nothing interesting is about to come from the devs in at least a month. Technically it looks horrible with lower highs. still does All we need is the post-top second low of 0.00408 to be broken so we will break the first low of 0.00395 also, and then dip to 0.00365 fibonacci zone and staring into the abyss. actually we pretty much did just this, except that it rebounded - which was fully anticipated because these things happen in waves

I don't believe for a second that we dip to 0.002xx again, there are wealthy buyers to compete with each other preventing it. But 0.003xx is now very close. 8 hours to be exact (I have needed to admit the facts after burning money at ~0.005.)

We are likely talking about a longish decline though, just like the last time. It will be reinforcing itself cause the speculators also gradually throw in their towels. see longer explanation

To change this gloomy outlook, the following must happen:
- 0.00426 to hold it broke right away, setting a post-top low of 0.00377
- asks below 0.006 to fall below BTC100 (now: BTC227) not even close
- sustained breakout from the double top is not happening now

Fat chance

Monero is a good coin. Buy and hold long term.

I have added comments in bold.

longer explanation:

I am thinking whether it will go up or down. The wallmaker at 39, 405, 41, 44 etc. seems to be one person who is a buyer. (Typically buy walls are used by sellers, that's why the clarification..). If he is indicative of a larger movement of fresh money, the others will step in trying to frontrun the yet others coming after that. Then many of the shorters at 50+ will be trapped because they are short of their preferred position but the market does not give the volume at their preferred buy zone (30-40), or even higher.

If we break out to the 50 range, it'll get real interesting

So even though the bearish scenario I outlined did manifest, I am now actually quite optimistic regarding the near-term price action.

[Febo]

does anyone know how many coins miners dump on the market each day?

Daily trading of XMR is 300% of what is mined, so how much miners dump directly dont realy matter. It is to tiny compared with volume.

619 BTC in buy orders in Poloniex. This is the highest till now.

EDIT: 1522.47297271 BTC in buy orders now! Impressive!

Man I wish you got a screenshot of that one! I don't see it now.

That's about 15% of the marketcap chasing 1% of the total supply according to what's on the books!

I had to take a screenshot, but I was already excited by the 619 BTC in buy orders and now I'm not even sure it was there.

Well it's 634 now, still 6.25% of the cap chasing 1%. That's still an insanely large sum.

I hope people will make some deals at these prices with all of these bitcoins and moneros on the books.

But it looks funny. volume is getting lover then was yesterday and yesterday when there was 480 BTC on buying side, was 200 BTC to buy at over 0.0039btc, today is much less. Like someone would just like to show there is lots of buy.


EDIT: Now someone moved his offer, and put it on 0.0039, so now is 250-300BTC offering to buy over 0.0039. Maybe he just miss set his offer before.

[blaaaaacksuit]

Interesting to see all these large buys coincide with those proposed BTC regulations coming from New York.

[furlong]

rptiela is spot on. One of the few coins worth hodling.

[rpietila]

does anyone know how many coins miners dump on the market each day?

Daily trading of XMR is 300% of what is mined, so how much miners dump directly dont realy matter. It is to tiny compared with volume.

The inflation is about 20,000 XMR == 90 BTC.

If we look at this in economics context, the miner has two businesses:

- Mining, in which he tries to produce coins the cheapest
- Investing/speculating, unless he immediately sells all the coins mined.

Your question is in a way irrelevant, because the miner "ceases to be a miner" if he also holds. If he is willing to hold the mined coins, he is as willing to buy the coins from an exchange. In theory at least (and xmr is quite an example of a "perfect market" for btc holders).

If otoh you were interested in knowing the percentage of miners that hold instead of sell, yes, my guess is that it is quite high. But all these withheld coins would likely have been bought instead in the market by the same guys.

In any case, the market must absorb the daily inflation. Monero's daily inflation is 2.5% of Bitcoin's. The price, is 0.43%. Monero is in an uptrend, with bitcoin that is not certain from the charts. We can conclude that in the investment flows point of view, Monero enjoys a much more important position than the market cap alone would lead us to think.

[dnaleor]

I hope people will make some deals at these prices with all of these bitcoins and moneros on the books.

yes, buy your moneroj now, it is still cheap! 

and please use the correct plural