Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[nioc]

Nothing new? This topic doesn't seems to be hot: few posts from trolls, few posts from scams but what about new info? Do XMR community have some?

I guess I'm a member of the community so here goes.  Two people in my life died last month.  That makes 3 this year.  I have inherited one cat and one chair.  Presently the cat is sleeping on the chair.

[digitalninja81]

@rpietila and others, what do you consider as a buy-zone for monero? Was thinking about placing some orders in the 0.004-0.0043 range. There is pretty much support at 0.004 and 0.0039, also fibonacci retracement levels are at 0.00406 and 0.00447 (This is based on the last runup from 0.023 to  0.058).

The 61.8% level is also on 0.00365, that is a possibility also.

All-time volume weighted average price is 0.00426.

Where did you get this useful information? Can you give us a link?
And can you compare for example volume weighted price of XMR with anybody else's volume weighted price?

[2good2betrue]

I fear the strategy is now to bury us under a flood bot spam, or perhaps create the appearance of fraudulent "pumping."

Since the trolling didn't accomplish anything I guess they decided to try something else.

You should not be afraid if XMR is profitable and its devs are wise. Am I right?

[Rinndaranaur]

Nothing new? This topic doesn't seems to be hot: few posts from trolls, few posts from scams but what about new info? Do XMR community have some?

I guess I'm a member of the community so here goes.  Two people in my life died last month.  That makes 3 this year.  I have inherited one cat and one chair.  Presently the cat is sleeping on the chair.

I'm sorry for your lost but let's not post offtopics message and discuss Monero and the ways of speculation.

[rpietila]

All-time volume weighted average price is 0.00426.

Where did you get this useful information? Can you give us a link?
And can you compare for example volume weighted price of XMR with anybody else's volume weighted price?

I compiled it myself. There were really only 3 sources and 102 days. It took maybe 2 hours. I am not giving that info out for free currently.

I have not done the similar calculation to any alt, or even BTC for that matter.

[rpietila]

Nothing new? This topic doesn't seems to be hot: few posts from trolls, few posts from scams but what about new info? Do XMR community have some?

Monero is a small coin, so many of the developments can happen in small cliques unbeknownst to the general public, yet be very important.

"XMR community", like any community is not an everyone-knows-all entity.

Follow my posting

[obocaman]

Monero to 0.1 when?

[binaryFate]

Monero to 0.1 when?

Soon. Another question?

[rpietila]

Monero to 0.1 when?

I think this (and beyond) is very likely if BTC loses steam. Monero has solidified its position as the #2 coin (note: shares don't count), and it is the natural successor. The scenario that would dethrone BTC, is its lacking privacy, and XMR has fixed exactly that.

Without problems with BTC, I think the network effects favor that one so that 0.1 is a little too ambitious for Monero, similarly as Litecoin has never reached better than 0.03 except for a moment.

[nakaone]

Monero to 0.1 when?

I think this (and beyond) is very likely if BTC loses steam. Monero has solidified its position as the #2 coin (note: shares don't count), and it is the natural successor. The scenario that would dethrone BTC, is its lacking privacy, and XMR has fixed exactly that.

Without problems with BTC, I think the network effects favor that one so that 0.1 is a little too ambitious for Monero, similarly as Litecoin has never reached better than 0.03 except for a moment.

there is one scenario I would like to discuss, I think the price for xmr can be higer (even much higher higher) under this scenario:

even now I do not think that there is a better way to store value, in case you do not want anybody to know how much you have. the untraceability makes monero the dark store of value. I do not think that today you find something like that in the real world: it does not have weight, it is liquid, spendable, unattackable, untraceable and accessable everywhere in the world.

maybe I am completely delusional but if this somewhat networks I think 0.1 will be really low.

[aminorex]

I suspect that Risto was commenting on the range of the "foreseeable" future, i.e. out to the end of the major btc bubble cycle.

In the long run I am uncertain which of the two will prove more valuable - but here I am talking about a timescale which is, in crypto, positively geological: The scale at which xmr emission falls below btc emission.

Unlike ltc, xmr adds actual utility.  Unlike other alts, it offers no barriers to liquidity ( when market cap grows large enough), and unlike other privacy enhanced vehicles it offers substantive and germanely provable guarantees.

[papa_lazzarou]

I suspect that Risto was commenting on the range of the "foreseeable" future, i.e. out to the end of the major btc bubble cycle.

In the long run I am uncertain which of the two will prove more valuable - but here I am talking about a timescale which is, in crypto, positively geological: The scale at which xmr emission falls below btc emission.

Unlike ltc, xmr adds actual utility.  Unlike other alts, it offers no barriers to liquidity ( when market cap grows large enough), and unlike other privacy enhanced vehicles it offers substantive and germanely provable guarantees.

But certainly, even if BTC keeps going as it is, Monero will benefit from that. If BTC gets to 10x the present value, it would EPIC even if Monero gets to "only" 0.03 of that value.

[dnaleor]

I suspect that Risto was commenting on the range of the "foreseeable" future, i.e. out to the end of the major btc bubble cycle.

In the long run I am uncertain which of the two will prove more valuable - but here I am talking about a timescale which is, in crypto, positively geological: The scale at which xmr emission falls below btc emission.

Unlike ltc, xmr adds actual utility.  Unlike other alts, it offers no barriers to liquidity ( when market cap grows large enough), and unlike other privacy enhanced vehicles it offers substantive and germanely provable guarantees.

But certainly, even if BTC keeps going as it is, Monero will benefit from that. If BTC gets to 10x the present value, it would EPIC even if Monero gets to "only" 0.03 of that value.

yeah 0.03*6000 = 180 USD. Not bad
it wouldn't make me ,a millionaire, but for sure it would be a nice start to eventually get there

[papa_lazzarou]

yeah 0.03*6000 = 180 USD. Not bad
it wouldn't make me ,a millionaire, but for sure it would be a nice start to eventually get there

That should read 180 USD equivalence, because we're not going back.

[nutildah]

Wow, XMR getting hammered, the Poloniex trollbox boys are raking in your money just as planned.

How many of your profitable coins did you change into Monero thanks to Poloniex?

[rpietila]

As long as my credit is good, I am a buyer long past the point of despair.  When I start to feel the fear and depression, I cheer myself up by buying more.  I take some amphetamine and a shot of whiskey, if that's what it takes. 

I felt fear yesterday and frustration today that the new day is dawning and it could not make any progress to the upside. The pounding will start again in a few hours most likely. I am thinking of selling as a precautionary move, to buy back lower. If yesterday wasn't the capitulation (and it wasn't: too high, too little volume), there is some chance that the capitulation will come today.

It would mean a very great decline in coin price, reasonably below 0.0025 or even in the post-introduction low area of ~0.0018. This is what some have been saying all along, that the bottoming process was aborted short of capitulation in July 13th, and it is coming back with even greater vengeance now.

Hate to say "I was wrong" (and the jury is still out) - but the destroying of all support levels, and price resting at the low end of the downtrend channel, spell on of two things:

- Downtrend will continue, with a snap back to the upper trend channel in 0.0041-0.0042 area, potentially regarded as a selling opportunity.
- The trendchannel will be broken to the downside, triggering an epic decline. (We are past the point of "controlled decline" imo).

Monero is a good coin, but the fact that lately it has been easier to get them "cheap" means that they were not probably so cheap after all...

I was trying to conclude by saying "hope I am wrong", but even that is not correct. I hope I am right, and that the valuation adjusts to the level that the market can bear.

[aminorex]

felt fear yesterday and frustration today that the new day is dawning and it could not make any progress to the upside. The pounding will start again in a few hours most likely. I am thinking of selling as a precautionary move, to buy back lower. If yesterday wasn't the capitulation (and it wasn't: too high, too little volume), there is some chance that the capitulation will come today.

That was the most bullish thing I've seen in weeks.  You've cheered me up.  I may not need any whiskey today.  (Given my failure to sleep, I will almost certainly need the amphetamine.)

Some natural pep and energy, crossed from the economy thread:

Since June 24 difficulty has been rising about 1.7% daily.  Emission is currently declining a little faster than 0.8% daily.  Compounding these factors over the course of 1 month,  we arrive at a factor of 2x increase in  the ratio cost-of-mining/supply-mined.

Monero will be worth twice as much, one month from today, by that metric, using neutral statistical assumptions consistent with empirical observation.

Now excuse me while I go over to the poloniex troll box and report that Risto said he was planning to sell off, and buy back lower.

[rpietila]

felt fear yesterday and frustration today that the new day is dawning and it could not make any progress to the upside. The pounding will start again in a few hours most likely. I am thinking of selling as a precautionary move, to buy back lower. If yesterday wasn't the capitulation (and it wasn't: too high, too little volume), there is some chance that the capitulation will come today.

That was the most bullish thing I've seen in weeks.  You've cheered me up.  I may not need any whiskey today.

Now excuse me while I go over to the poloniex troll box and report that Risto said he was planning to sell off, and buy back lower.

I checked but there was no such report yet.

[aminorex]

felt fear yesterday and frustration today that the new day is dawning and it could not make any progress to the upside. The pounding will start again in a few hours most likely. I am thinking of selling as a precautionary move, to buy back lower. If yesterday wasn't the capitulation (and it wasn't: too high, too little volume), there is some chance that the capitulation will come today.

That was the most bullish thing I've seen in weeks.  You've cheered me up.  I may not need any whiskey today.

Now excuse me while I go over to the poloniex troll box and report that Risto said he was planning to sell off, and buy back lower.

I checked but there was no such report yet.

I like to think I'm not a liar per se, but I do talk smack some times as a lark - when I'm squirrelly and sleep-deprived especially.  I wouldn't start such a rumor except in jest, as a leg-pull, when I was pretty confident that it wouldn't be taken seriously.  Fact is, I try not to move markets - ever.  Impossible task, I know.

But then, my nickname used to be "FoolishConsistency"  -- because I'm the hobgoblin of small minds.  It got taken away because I'm too inconsistent.

Some people are born under astrological signs.  I was born between <sarcasm> tags.

[aminorex]

Personally I think it's building a base.  20 hours sideways now.

I should know.  I haven't blinked.