Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[saddambitcoin]

Every day that Monero is under Darkcoin is a day that gives you an opportunity to buy cheap coins.

What if one doesn't have Bitcoin with which to buy?

the feeling that you get when buying XMR with DRK is amazing.

Sounds more like heroine ;-)

the ups and downs that cryptocurrency provides is much like hardcore drugs - riding high on a rally then the harsh comedown after. nothing else comes close.

with that i say, brothers let us not be discouraged with this recent dump. we are the pioneers building a new economy here.

[nioc]

Every day that Monero is under Darkcoin is a day that gives you an opportunity to buy cheap coins.

What if one doesn't have Bitcoin with which to buy?

the feeling that you get when buying XMR with DRK is amazing.

Sounds more like heroine ;-)

the ups and downs that cryptocurrency provides is much like hardcore drugs - riding high on a rally then the harsh comedown after. nothing else comes close.

with that i say, brothers let us not be discouraged with this recent dump. we are the pioneers building a new economy here.

I had a momentary negative feeling when it started going down but then all was calm.  I did however miss the bottom as my bid was 0.000008 too low.
Someone just but a 23 btc buy at 365.

I must add heroine to my health care proxy.

[aminorex]

I just got a new convert.  A rates trader at Metlife took a few thousand from me as a tail hedge.  A miniscule position, but I suspect he will become a repeat customer and tell his friends.

I will be meeting with an fx option market maker later, and a hedge fund manager when we can work out a mutual time.  Also looking into contacts with a rather largish fixed income fund for meetups the next time I hit nyc.

So far I have made at least 8 monerists of potential size by p2p networking (counting Risto, who I solicited and supplied with a bootstrap allocation, but not counting any other btct or crypt regulars who I may have stimulated to investigate).

One thing I notice is that they fall in two buckets: 1. People who know me, respect my opinion and defer to it, rely upon it, and 2. very intelligent people who can understand the compellingness of the case I present, financially expert professionals, who recognize that XMR fills a gaping hole in their portfolio strategy.  The ming- cost / mining-reward trend plays a role in their new views, but I am careful to observe the inferrential limitations of this statistic.

I might line up a presentation on monero at one or more btc nyc meetups or at the nyc bitcoin center.  Not by me, but by a friend who is better suited to the task.

In future I may line up some seminar groups in London, Hong Kong, and or Shanghai.

Oh and I will be having beers tomorrow after work with an SVP from Two Sigma.  XMR will not be neglected.

Like Mr. Blankfein, I feel I am doing God' s work.

[michaelb87]

Transferred XMR from bter to Polo because of better trade volume but forgot payment ID... What the hell... Hope it can be retrieved by Polo. Just got into XMR but this crap doesn't make me happy  Guess it's my own fault but it's quit confusing that all crypto's transfer in the same manner except for CN coins which apparently need a payment ID.

[iourzzz]

I just got a new convert.  A rates trader at Metlife took a few thousand from me as a tail hedge.  A miniscule position, but I suspect he will become a repeat customer and tell his friends.

I will be meeting with an fx option market maker later, and a hedge fund manager when we can work out a mutual time.  Also looking into contacts with a rather largish fixed income fund for meetups the next time I hit nyc.

So far I have made at least 8 monerists of potential size by p2p networking (counting Risto, who I solicited and supplied with a bootstrap allocation, but not counting any other btct or crypt regulars who I may have stimulated to investigate).

One thing I notice is that they fall in two buckets: 1. People who know me, respect my opinion and defer to it, rely upon it, and 2. very intelligent people who can understand the compellingness of the case I present, financially expert professionals, who recognize that XMR fills a gaping hole in their portfolio strategy.  The ming- cost / mining-reward trend plays a role in their new views, but I am careful to observe the inferrential limitations of this statistic.

I might line up a presentation on monero at one or more btc nyc meetups or at the nyc bitcoin center.  Not by me, but by a friend who is better suited to the task.

In future I may line up some seminar groups in London, Hong Kong, and or Shanghai.

Oh and I will be having beers tomorrow after work with an SVP from Two Sigma.  XMR will not be neglected.

Like Mr. Blankfein, I feel I am doing God' s work.

That's really great. It dispels all doubts and strengthens the belief!

[Dump3er]

Ha! 1337-Bids, I'm amused.

[nioc]

Since those bids were place 40 minutes ago not one trade has happened and no more bids placed above it or on the sell side.  Standoff!!

[saddambitcoin]

**i am pretty confident that we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.**

[vuduchyld]

I've got some I bought under that price.

I've also got some I bought over that price.

I don't have ANY I am willing to sell at that price.  

(But that is pretty funny...Leet bids?)

[nutildah]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

[realbtcdealers4real]

Ha! 1337-Bids, I'm amused.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/17010952/leetbids.png

a whale is acting cool 

[saddambitcoin]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

How about this?

If Monero fails this year (goes below 0.001 BTC), I will pee on my own head and send you a photo.

If Monero reaches 0.02 BTC this year, you must pee on your head and show us.

[nutildah]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

How about this?

If Monero fails this year (goes below 0.001 BTC), I will pee on my own head and send you a photo.

If Monero reaches 0.02 BTC this year, you must pee on your head and show us.

Love it. You're on Mr. Hussein! Mark my words, this will be the mother of all bets...

[realbtcdealers4real]

What you guys think about the rest of cryptonote coins?

[Joshuar]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

How about this?

If Monero fails this year (goes below 0.001 BTC), I will pee on my own head and send you a photo.

If Monero reaches 0.02 BTC this year, you must pee on your head and show us.

Love it. You're on Mr. Hussein! Mark my words, this will be the mother of all bets...

That's a bad bet nutildah, lol. There are whales that can move even bitcoin's market by several hundred $. Since monero is a up and coming cryptocurrency(not yet at bitcoin's level), someone with a few hundred k can move the price to 0.05 btc today if they wanted.

[luigi1111]

I'm speculating I will continue to remain correct and Monero will continue to fall like gentle pee on your heads.

Should have invested in a coin that was meant to be used for the long-haul and not just as a high-risk investment vehicle.

How about this?

If Monero fails this year (goes below 0.001 BTC), I will pee on my own head and send you a photo.

If Monero reaches 0.02 BTC this year, you must pee on your head and show us.

Love it. You're on Mr. Hussein! Mark my words, this will be the mother of all bets...

What about the (rather likely) case where it does neither of those things? I want someone embarrassing themselves somehow!

[realbtcdealers4real]

not gonna make any predictions that involve pee

[rpietila]

The trendline is negative, not positive.

This is not actually true, even though I also intuitively felt like that before doing the numbers.

The trendline that best fits the data of Monero's all time daily volume weighted average prices, is as follows:

power:
y = 4,991x^1,012
R² = 0,79428
trendline price = 0.0059

Other candidates for trendline have lower R² values but show nevertheless also a strong growth trend.

exponential:
y = 53,351e0,0253x
R² = 0,58939
trendline price = 0.0088

linear:
y = 4,0295x + 88,437
R² = 0,47038
trendline price = 0.0054

[ArticMine]

In my books, at this point in the development of Monero the trend in market capitalization, is way more significant than the trend in price, as an indicator of the growth and acceptance of the currency. We could see price move sideways or even slightly downward while there is very significant growth simply because of the emission rate.

[rpietila]

In my books, at this point in the development of Monero the trend in market capitalization, is way more significant than the trend in price, as an indicator of the growth and acceptance of the currency. We could see price move sideways or even slightly downward while there is very significant growth simply because of the emission rate.

Good point. I've tried to make a metric that combines the price (aka final market cap) and current market cap metrics into one. Something like:

the cap of all the coins that have been mined + all future coins discounted to the present using a X% APR discount rate

If parameter X is reasonable, this should theoretically be the best metric, as both the current number of coins and the eventual number (probably infinite) have their biases.