Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[WaxMan]

Monero's adoption is currently 275 newcomers per day (2.2% increase per day). This is a very fast adoption rate if it lasts any longer, and this number was taken from the last 20 days,

Where can i see this number? Your subreddit is empty and topics on this forum is not so popular. Can you give us some proofs?

Everything is in the monero missives, i suggest you read them. What you're looking for is the number of download clients/blockchain in order to estimate growth.

Maybe you didn't understand me, but my wondering about reddit and other topics here is not foolish. They give us a real picture of community activity. It give us an image of community, not a number of "how many times cliend was downloaded duh"

Fair enough - but it is not mandatory for a Monero user to subscribe to the subreddit. All they need to do is have the client, so in many ways that is the most important metric to get an idea about adoption.

Quoting the Monero Missive - from July 15th to August 3rd there were 15,000 downloads of the Monero client.

I can repeat everything again. Nude numbers of course can show us something and maybe in some cases they can work as a proofs, but right now i'm talking about real people who support XMR with their own time and tongue. What can you say about them?

[ZoeJane]

From this numbers I can only see only 20% increase in new users in last month - less than 0.7% increase per day meaning your numbers are 70% off. N

Imo that's the real numbers of what happen with XMR. And it's explain the situation a way better then rptelia's stuff.

[kbm]

1. Monero's adoption is currently 275 newcomers per day (2.2% increase per day).

I think your numbers are way off based on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7822527;topicseen#msg7822527 :

	13.7	10.8	Remark
Reddit Subscribers	512	600	Last week only ~15 new users
People on IRC	150+	157	all time high 180
Forum topic pages	497	590
Volume in BTC (today)	90	92	Poloniex

From this numbers I can only see only 20% increase in new users in last month - less than 0.7% increase per day meaning your numbers are 70% off. Number of transaction is one more indicator that shows stagnation. Trend is not in a high acceleration mode and based this numbers I think we are going to slowly grind lower to the next support 0.0025-0.003 or stay in this area 0.003-0.004 for some time until lower daily inflation create shortages or adoption accelerates (marketing).

This would take it from 275 users to 88 users, whom are spending ~$200 a day (unless you have numbers to refute that?). This is still 8800 XMR from what's produced per day.

This leaves a net of 12850 XMR that does not get bought per day by new users, taking us to:

3. There is a number of large bitcoin holders who are interested in Monero. These holders own 10,000s of XMR per person but seek to buy more. Selling does not make any sense for them if they are in accumulation mode, they can only buy. On average it can be estimated that they add 10,000 XMR/day to their stash especially now as the price is cheap.

I have to make the very educated guess that Risto is at least one whom is purchasing such an amount. Judging by the different buying patterns I'm seeing just watching poloniex, I have to say there is at least two people who are increasing their stash by 10,000 XMR/day .. netting a total average of 20k XMR/day willing to be picked by by these two average people.

This still leaves us with 7150 XMR that are oversold. How much longer can the oversells continue in that case?

Unless Risto was making the point that these people collectively add 10k XMR, and represent only a total of 10k XMR .. in which we would be left with 2850 XMR that is not sold? Sorry, it was a little unclear when I read it.

A net of 2850 XMR / day, at these prices is representative buying of 28.5 people per day. With the current growth rate using your numbers (.6666666%/day), that's still only 42 days away from being sustainable at current prices. Much faster if the price drops (add: actually this would be zero days if the price were to decrease to .003 today ((1-(2850/(12850+8800)))*current price), we would be in an immediate oversold market) - because both the people who are already buying xmr(88/day) will get >100 xmr/day and the new people above the 88/day will also take on more as well .. assuming the rate of average investment holds to fiat of $200 each.

[giveBTCpls]

Does anyone know how to use i2p and is active on there? are there are any forums similar to this with interesting info? Since Monero is in touch with i2p network there should be someone that knows how to do it keeping track of anything interesting said there just in case.

[Majormax]

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long

Why i have a bad feeling of a trap?

And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?

I had trouble understanding this too. Maybe its a typo? If not,  I think what Risto means is that XMR is not cheap short term as there are still some sell pressure that can keep going for about 10 days; but it is cheap long term as the deficit is growing super-exponentially.

Otherwise, great post risto! thanks a lot!

Great post indeed... I dont think it was a typo, for me XMR price is fair right now because there is little real, tangible utility like with Bitcoin where you directly buy goods and services, but because the way XMR block reward is permanently decreasing and exponentially more people are coming to XMR, the power of the small speculators that are driving the price low right now in the hope of re-buying even lower later is diminishing so quickly most wont be able to rebuy and will have to re-enter at losses.

1. Monero's adoption is currently 275 newcomers per day (2.2% increase per day).

I think your numbers are way off based on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7822527;topicseen#msg7822527 :

	13.7	10.8	Remark
Reddit Subscribers	512	600	Last week only ~15 new users
People on IRC	150+	157	all time high 180
Forum topic pages	497	590
Volume in BTC (today)	90	92	Poloniex

From this numbers I can only see only 20% increase in new users in last month - less than 0.7% increase per day meaning your numbers are 70% off. Number of transaction is one more indicator that shows stagnation. Trend is not in a high acceleration mode and based this numbers I think we are going to slowly grind lower to the next support 0.0025-0.003 or stay in this area 0.003-0.004 for some time until lower daily inflation create shortages or adoption accelerates (marketing).

lmao, these social numbers mean nothing, if they meant doge would have surpassed LTC by now, but no, its dead. The numbers used in rpietila analysis are based on real metrics by the monero team, detailed in the last Missive, and they were very conservative before.

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand. If buyers turn to sellers (for any unpredictable reasons, but not predicting that they will) the pressure will be immediately negative.

This has happened many times to the most promising cryptos, so just saying, it is always wise to follow current developments.

[ZoeJane]

lmao, these social numbers mean nothing,

I can say exactly the same without proofs (just like you).
"lmao, these numbers (still talking about rptelia statistics) mean nothing."


See?

[macsga]

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long

Why i have a bad feeling of a trap?

And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?

There may be a misspelling there, I presume. If you read the whole post he suggests that this will go a bit lower before going up again. I'm holding a good stash for my standards just in case...

[HornyMiner]

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.

Since when this metrics actually are not relevant?
According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.

There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?

[drawingthesun]

Well I am not sure about all these numbers. Is it possible rpietila got lucky with Bitcoin investing and now believes in TA? Bitcoin made many people rich, many people that never made such elaborate calculations.

I have invested in Monero because it's going to be one of only a few relevant coins and in the next year this will become more and more evident. As I have always said, our competitors are Ethereum and Bitcoin, not clone coins and litecoins.

I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.

[ZoeJane]

lmao, these social numbers mean nothing,

I can say exactly the same without proofs (just like you).
"lmao, these numbers (still talking about rptelia statistics) mean nothing."


See?

yes you can, but it doesn't mean you are correct,

The same for you. You just spitting a random sentenses without proofs. And there is no reason to think that you might be correct.

I've just read you post history, BCN shill. please fuck off

Ooh, classic you. When the arguments had ended you begin to tag people as an enemies

[drawingthesun]

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.

Since when this metrics actually are not relevant?
According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.

There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?

hahaha, please fuck off BCN shills, its getting embarrassing for you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622738.msg7823793#msg7823793

The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.

The Bytecoin community consists of Bytecoin premine developers, idiots and the paid shills. I'm hoping the rats die off once Bytecoin drops below 1 satoshi, which will be any day now.

[celestio]

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.

Since when this metrics actually are not relevant?
According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.

There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?

hahaha, please fuck off BCN shills, its getting embarrassing for you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622738.msg7823793#msg7823793

The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.

The Bytecoin community consists of Bytecoin premine developers, idiots and the paid shills. I'm hoping the rats die off once Bytecoin drops below 1 satoshi, which will be any day now.

Bytecoin's price is technically already far under 1 satoshi. 1 satoshi is just the lowest price possible on the exchanges, and BCN only has a handful(4-6) buy orders on Poloniex, with the amount of sell orders in the dozens.

[drawingthesun]

I've just read you post history, BCN shill. please fuck off

Ooh, classic you. When the arguments had ended you begin to tag people as an enemies

Wait, what argument?

...This one: (?)

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.

Since when this metrics actually are not relevant?
According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.

There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?

The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum. I know plenty of Monero people that haven't moved to the forum, because it hasn't reached a large enough critical mass, all the Monero information I need is here, in fact I am not even on one of the Monero forums, there are two at the moment.

Also many reddit forums are dead, the Ethereum one is much smaller than the actual Ethereum community, and the developers only post to the Ethereum forum, so that drove most of the community to the Ethereum forum.

The same is not true of Monero, all the Monero developers still post mostly on this forum, until most of the Monero team moves off of Bitcointalk it'll be hard to get the community to move.

[PizzaTraveler]

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long

Why i have a bad feeling of a trap?

And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?

There may be a misspelling there, I presume. If you read the whole post he suggests that this will go a bit lower before going up again. I'm holding a good stash for my standards just in case...

It's good that you have such standards but it doesn't change anything. As a user of this forum i want to get real information, which is easy to understand and to retell. But instead of this i get something very strange from mr rpietila.

I'm sure that his speech about "cheap Monero" is not a simple mistake.

[HornyMiner]

The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum.

So if i will download your software three times (maybe because my hardware has someproblems or maybe because i have a bad memory) you will count me as a three diffrent new user?

If your subreddit and forum is empty, it means that there is no one to discuss about currency problem. That's what i call community.

[kbm]

The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum.

So if i will download your software three times (maybe because my hardware has someproblems or maybe because i have a bad memory) you will count me as a three diffrent new user?

If your subreddit and forum is empty, it means that there is no one to discuss about currency problem. That's what i call community.

Actually, it's funny that you mention that:

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).

You would still be only one new user.

[ArticMine]

Monero's adoption is currently 275 newcomers per day (2.2% increase per day). This is a very fast adoption rate if it lasts any longer, and this number was taken from the last 20 days,

Where can i see this number? Your subreddit is empty and topics on this forum is not so popular. Can you give us some proofs?

The argument is made in the following post:

2. We've only recently started tracking our download stats (since July 15th), and we thought we'd share with you some download stats for Monero over the past 3 weeks. Our most popular download has been our blockchain bootstrap, which has seen 41 425 completed downloads in 3 weeks, around 74tb of traffic usage! Leading the pack on these downloads is Windows with around 78.2%, followed by OS X with 14.5%, and the remaining 7.3% snagged by Linux. The client downloads are quite interesting, too - of a total of 15 000 downloads in 3 weeks, Windows again grabbed 78.4%, OS X only grabbing 9%, and Linux grabbing a surprising 12.6%! This obviously excludes those that clone the github repo and compile, which is the majority of Linux users and OS X users (thanks to sammy007's Homebrew recipe). We'd like to thank the donations we've received thus far - it goes directly to many things, including covering costs like the bandwidth provision to help bootstrap new users.

Monero devs have recently published the download stats for the last weeks, and these support markedly higher adoption than the previous consensus estimate of 8,000.

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past ).

So if we take the blockchain bootstrap downloads, the total number of users should be around 14,000.

For client downloads, we are talking perhaps about 17,500 / 6 new users in 3 weeks, which would be 3,000. (15,000 downloads + 2,500 compiled, divided by 3 and further divided by 2 because some of them just go to existing users anyway).

Then there is the change in the exchange accounts that do not have outside wallet at all. This is probably not large, because 3 weeks have been a general downtrend. But I'd still estimate that it has gone up a little because there's more exchanges now. Like 500-1,000.

All in all, my very rough calculation (method 1) gives 14,000, and (method 2) gives 8000 + 3000 + 500 = 11,500.


A very rough average of these methods is 12,500 current owners.

- Since the last calculation in 2014-7-17, the number has grown by 4,500 (56%).
 
- The internal growth rate has been 2.26% during the period, compared to 5.45% all-time-average of XMR (and 0.6% of BTC since 2010-1-1)

- Since the BTC/XMR has been in a decline during this period, the average stash has gone from 267 XMR to 207 XMR, and its BTC equivalent value from BTC1.35 to BTC0.78. Both have been in a secular downtrend and the recent figures are all-time-lows.

- BTC0.78 is only $450, and declining. This is at odds with Metcalfe's Law that says that the average goes up when adoption goes up.

- Inflation is 21,8kXMR == BTC82. Growth of userbase is 275/day. If we assume that each new user buys for $200 (BTC0.35), the new users will extinguish 118% of the supply. Yes, it has already been the case for 3 weeks that new users buy more than the whole mining output.

- In 30 days, given current growth of userbase (2.26%/day), and decline of inflation (-0.19%/day), the new buying will account for 244% of the supply. This is in only 30 days - the situation will be more out-of-sync when more time passes.

- That all newcomers get their coins + the price has even been in a downtrend, is only possible because of existing owners net selling. Since I know quite a lot of existing owners that have been net buyers, the rest of the pack has to have been selling with both hands to account for both the newcomers and the accumulating whales. (As per my convention, it does not matter who the whales are and if they have bought or mined, and with what equipment - if they do not sell 100%, they are accumulating, and withholding coins from the market, indirectly causing the speculators to sell more).

- When I wrote my last speculation update hardly more than 24 hours ago spelling continuing capitulation, I did not have the access to the information that Monero adoption is actually growing in the last weeks despite the downtrend in price. These numbers really made it! If Monero had 8000 users then and the growth for 1 more year was 0.6% per day, similar to bitcoin, it would have 70,000 users. But with 2.26% growth...................29 million users. This might be a good investment or hedge with some of your bitcoin. At least Bitcoinworld people can always do it in 5 minutes and no ID. This is not to be underestimated.

- I mean, for me there is not much of a difference if a coin has 50% more or less users now. But if it has 300 times more users in one year, it is probably at least 10 times more valuable right now than the current trading range we are in.



To compile and process this information takes a lot of time and I am not getting paid, neither I mind, since I would have done it anyway for my own purposes. I see the conclusions from the nice tables and graphs from my screen. But you don't. The significance of the things presented here is easily missed without seeing the graphs. That is however too much to ask from me. There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

[fluffypony]

Does anyone know how to use i2p and is active on there? are there are any forums similar to this with interesting info? Since Monero is in touch with i2p network there should be someone that knows how to do it keeping track of anything interesting said there just in case.

We have #monero and #monero-dev on irc2p. It was being mirrored to and from Freenode, but rfree's bot is hiccuping at the moment. He said he'll fix it when he gets a moment:)

[MoneroMooo]

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).

This part might actually partly assuage one of my earlier points. It would, if there were two mandatory updates in the time frame considered, with download numbers for both.

As for where they go, I'd guess part of it is people trying out, and not sticking with it. I have a few wallets here that I likely won't ever use anymore.

Once mirrors start popping up, it'll become harder to keep track of downloads btw. I don't think there are any yet.

[Febo]

If Monero is getting 20% new users increase each month none should get worried about it, is enough. Is not something that will push price down or up. Each new month less % of new adopters wil be needed to sustain solid price.