Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[Majormax]

Well I am not sure about all these numbers. Is it possible rpietila got lucky with Bitcoin investing and now believes in TA? Bitcoin made many people rich, many people that never made such elaborate calculations.

I have invested in Monero because it's going to be one of only a few relevant coins and in the next year this will become more and more evident. As I have always said, our competitors are Ethereum and Bitcoin, not clone coins and litecoins.

I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.

Yes, quite right. Markets are illogical because they are primarily driven by (weight of money) short-term profiteers.  Price can appear to be moving in apposition to development and utility.


Some good projects/technology/businesses can be killed by speculator activity and sentiment. Most speculators (even in good enterprises) lose money in the long term, overall : that is what funds all development eg the purpose of the stock market etc..

Monero has a good positioning,team and niche. That gives a likelihood but not a guarantee of success.

[nioc]

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).

This part might actually partly assuage one of my earlier points. It would, if there were two mandatory updates in the time frame considered, with download numbers for both.

As for where they go, I'd guess part of it is people trying out, and not sticking with it. I have a few wallets here that I likely won't ever use anymore.

Once mirrors start popping up, it'll become harder to keep track of downloads btw. I don't think there are any yet.

The last mandatory Monero update was June 11.  It's on the first page of the ANN thread.

Some percentage of the downloads are the same person with more than one computer but rpietila's numbers take that and all other possibilities into account as they are bottom line estimated numbers as explained by him and linked and posted on this and the previous page.  I like putting everything in one sentence hope it makes sense.

FWIW I don't have a reddit account and only go there via links provided in bct.

[fluffypony]

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past Smiley).

This part might actually partly assuage one of my earlier points. It would, if there were two mandatory updates in the time frame considered, with download numbers for both.

As for where they go, I'd guess part of it is people trying out, and not sticking with it. I have a few wallets here that I likely won't ever use anymore.

Once mirrors start popping up, it'll become harder to keep track of downloads btw. I don't think there are any yet.

The last mandatory update was on June 10, we only started tracking downloads on July 15. The binaries that everyone is downloading are not nightlies, they are the last stable release, which is the June 10 one. Also, if it was mandatory updates people were downloading, we'd be seeing a lot fewer blockchain bootstrap downloads.

That having been said, we are moving to a distributed download cluster, and will be using a more feature-complete logging platform (since we'll have multiple, geographically distributed instances of nginx), so we'll be able to weed out things that are skewing the stats once we've rolled over to that.

[RAJSALLIN]

Anyone is holding spartan mode until 0.01?

A certain Monero dev who joined me for dinner tonight, asked me about this. I told that I think it makes sense for me to sell when my Monero holding reaches between 50-70% of my net worth. Since it is currently a very small % of my net worth, this means also a price significantly higher than 0.01.

Wow, so you are willing to let Monero become a majority of not only your crypto portfolio but also of your total net worth. Does this mean Monero has overtaken bitcoins role as #1 for you rpietila?

[rpietila]

I think it makes sense for me to sell when my Monero holding reaches between 50-70% of my net worth. Since it is currently a very small % of my net worth, this means also a price significantly higher than 0.01.

Wow, so you are willing to let Monero become a majority of not only your crypto portfolio but also of your total net worth. Does this mean Monero has overtaken bitcoins role as #1 for you rpietila?

Of course. I did it with bitcoin also. If something is so good that, after me investing a small percent of my net worth to it, it becomes a big percentage due to value appreciation, I am not the one selling prematurely. It is a part of the investing method that I am quite proud of.

I have the same attitude towards Monero and Bitcoin. Unless there is a catastrophic thing or set of things that causes me to lose trust to crypto in total, or the coin in particular, I just hold until the price is either very high or zero. If it goes down, I hold. If it goes up, I hold until a black swan happens and it becomes the majority of my nw, and then I diversify.

I have bought a nice stash of monero during the latest downtrend. They are forever taken away from the market, since I am not selling them, no matter how high or low it goes. I know several people doing the same. When monero price starts moving, there will be gnashing of teeth among the people who thought it would always be so liquid that it is non-punishable to sell at the top and buy back near bottom. Because those xmr are gone forever.

[Febo]

Metrics actually are only relevant for their time. A small change in sentiment (within even 1 day) can overwhelm any amount of demand.

Since when this metrics actually are not relevant?
According to the rpietila words, XMR subreddit and Monerotalk forum should be full of a new members. But the fact is - they are empty.

There are no huge number of a new recruits. And there are no "magic legion" which will make XMR more expensive. Got it?

hahaha, please fuck off BCN shills, its getting embarrassing for you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622738.msg7823793#msg7823793

The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.

The Bytecoin community consists of Bytecoin premine developers, idiots and the paid shills. I'm hoping the rats die off once Bytecoin drops below 1 satoshi, which will be any day now.

Bytecoin's price is technically already far under 1 satoshi. 1 satoshi is just the lowest price possible on the exchanges, and BCN only has a handful(4-6) buy orders on Poloniex, with the amount of sell orders in the dozens.

That is why XMR market on Poloniex is important you can buy Bytecoin for less then 1 satoshi, you can do for 1/300 part of satoshi.  

[openyourmind]

The Bytecoin community consists of

Why you guys are discussing BCN community in the Monero speculation thread? Does XMR economy depends on it? Or you just have nothing to do when XMR is cheap?

[titan86]

The numbers come from the downloads of the software I believe, not the reddit forum or the new forum.

The fact that the numbers of downloads is mean more than a real people activity gives us a lot of thoughts. It is bad for me that I'm a member of community which is not user-oriented.

[2good2betrue]

I am disappointed that the market currently places low value on Monero, but the markets are illogical.

Market does not do anything without a good reason. In case of prices - Market will never put it down until he gets a serious thoughts about it. You should just face it and realize that low value wasn't happend without a reason. It is not an illogical. You get me?    

[Rinndaranaur]

The BCN shills are very annoying, they are like rats.

Why are you blaming BCN community every time you have a problem with price/hot discussion here? Is it a rule? Kind of "Have nothing to say? Blame BCN trolls!" haha!

[openyourmind]

pls...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622738.msg7834657#msg7834657

The fact that you find my old message which obviously shows my path, you still have nothing to answer on my question. You are crazy about BCN. I also think that you are being paranoid.

[Vilawil]

please fuck off

Wow, kid! Don't be so rude. You are not in the school so that is why you shouldn't act like you used to. I hope that you will be polite with a people who have different opinions from you.

[rpietila]

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long

Why i have a bad feeling of a trap?

And what do you mean "not stay this cheap for long?". Do you confirm the fact the price is low or you mean that it will be cheaper?

There may be a misspelling there, I presume. If you read the whole post he suggests that this will go a bit lower before going up again. I'm holding a good stash for my standards just in case...

Monero is such a good and honest coin, that it has never been actually cheap.

The very first few days maybe - but then not many believed that it could ever attract people like me and overtake Litecoin and maybe Bitcoin (although in Bitcoin forum it is blasphemy to say so) etc.

It is not cheap now as its usability is very low, and its fully diluted market cap is $40 million dollars, far from "cheap".

Yet, I believe that it will not stay even this cheap for long. A week perhaps.

[TeeBone]

Let's give a round of applause to all the weaklings selling to strong hands. Bravo, bravo. Keep stackin' ! 

[saddambitcoin]

I sold some in the past couple days because I was at 1000:1 ratio. Now I'm around 400:1. I'd love to buy more at 0.0035 or less.

I expect the downtrend will now continue until everyone decides it has gone far enough and immense buying will ensue. If the pattern continues, the next rally will happen around August 20th 2014.

It seems the monthly game of musical Monero has begun early - someone getting excited?

Can't wait to see what this month will bring.

[Brilliantrocket]

Yet, I believe that it will not stay even this cheap for long. A week perhaps.

On what basis? Hopes and dreams? At this point it's 100% speculative. Without a constant supply of patsies, the price would tank rather quickly. I think many Monero investors are in a state of delusion regarding timeline. The majority of people are rather impatient. When a few months go by without a significant improvement to usability, interest will wane. Not necessarily a bad thing, there are uptrends and downtrends for every asset.

 Personally, I'm watching Monero very closely. I'm certainly interested, but the endless shilling and permanently affixed rose colored glasses that so many of you guys seem to wear do not look good from the outside. I know you guys believe in the project, but fanaticism is not the best way to attract supporters at this stage.

[nutildah]

I remember Bitcoin dropping more than 90% because of a hacker messing with one exchange(MtGox) a few years ago. Then Bitcoin dropped 50% when MtGox when Bankrupt this year along with the China news and Mr Willy, I won't even bother to name the other dozen or so times Bitcoin dropped more than 20% since 2010, you get the driff. It seems you simply have an agenda..

Yes, I do have an agenda. Its called "understanding reality."

In the time since monero has been in existence, bitcoin has been INCREDIBLY stable compared to monero. Its not a matter of opinion. Its just the way reality is. If you beg me to bust out the charts and graphs for you, I will do so, but you really should be able to find this out by your bigboy self.

[nutildah]

As I have said in the Monero Economics thread, and here, I will say now once again:

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long. And the reason is this:

It doesn't matter. You're making up the meaning behind all this stuff and putting it together in an overconfident manner as many salesmen do. You can't even defend your comment that monero is less volatile than bitcoin, how do you have the gall to continue theorizing when you can't defend your initial observations?

[smooth]

When a few months go by without a significant improvement to usability, interest will wane.

There is this crazy little thing called a brand new written-from-scratch-with-extensive-usability-testing GUI that was revealed last week to rave reviews and while a release date has not been announced more than a few months not a very good guess.

Personally, I'm watching Monero very closely.

Seems unlikely given that you didn't know about the GUI.

[darlidada]

Not sure what you guys have been talking about in the last few posts. XMR has been #3 in volume over the last 30 days. XMR is +33% in value over the last 30 days. In a bearish alt market, I'd say XMR has been doing really well.



source : bitcoinwisdom.com