Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[nutildah]

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long. And the reason is this:

Wow, you are _really_ bad at this. You don't have any sort of upper hand on how the alt markets work, you just have waaaaaay too much self-confidence and ego, probably handed down to you from your parents.

How much money have you lost people since you crowned yourself King Analyst? Do you realize most people go to school, receive some sort of training and on-the-job experience before they are given the title "analyst"?

Have fun losing the rest of your inheritance money, just don't expect us to jump down the rabbit hole with you.

[smooth]

Mining with a secret, optimized miner over a period of several weeks could have easily produced a situation that rivals the DRK instamine in unfairness. The choices made in creating Monero facilitated this plan. I mean, this is truly the logic of a genius. BCN is unfair, so I'll just clone it without correct a major part of what made it unfair! And you guys call yourselves legitimate.

No it couldn't because:

1. It probably didn't happen at all for the reason explained by drawingthesun a few posts back. Many regular folks were able to mine a lot right from the start and for several weeks going forward. The amount that could have been skimmed off couldn't have been much.

2. The difficulty was low despite a good adjustment algorithm that kept the rate of blocks close to the target (<10% overshoot on the first day, other days probably less). If someone was mining with a high hash rate it would have increased the difficulty. It didn't happen. Take a look at the difficulty chart on monerochain. It barely even budged for two weeks.

3. Even over several weeks the total amount mined was not that high. The TOTAL amount mined in the first three weeks was about 2.5%. Since we know that many independent miners got significant amounts, the amount any secret scam miner could have taken out of this 2.5% total would have been very, very low. Almost certainly well under 1%

That does not compare to DRK, not even close.

I'll have to do a bit of digging in the Monero thread to confirm, but to me it seems that the BCN devs would have been brain dead not to take advantage of such a prospective opportunity.

Somewhat, and who knows maybe they really are that brain dead.

But remember at the time Monero wasn't worth much. It was just a clone of BCN. I remember not even being sure that Monero would overtake BCN, though I thought it a good possibility. BCN hadn't cratered yet, and indeed the best evidence of the premine scam may not have been been presented yet. So Monero now looks like it would have been a great target, but at the time it was just another clone shitcoin.

But we can only guess why they don't seem to have mined that much. As I said you can find all the data on monerochain.com. The charts make it pretty obvious.

[saddambitcoin]

Monero price is not cheap even now, but it will not stay this cheap for long. And the reason is this:

Wow, you are _really_ bad at this. You don't have any sort of upper hand on how the alt markets work, you just have waaaaaay too much self-confidence and ego, probably handed down to you from your parents.

How much money have you lost people since you crowned yourself King Analyst? Do you realize most people go to school, receive some sort of training and on-the-job experience before they are given the title "analyst"?

Have fun losing the rest of your inheritance money, just don't expect us to jump down the rabbit hole with you.

It is everyone's responsibility to do their own due diligence. The mantra here used to be "only invest what you can afford to lose". If someone needs to be protected from mismanaging their funds, they may need to reconsider bitcoin altogether. Cryptocurrency teaches us, quite unforgivingly, to assume complete responsibility for your money.

Rpietila and other observers are kind to share their research, findings, and opinions with the community - this is how I feel. If you disagree, I am sorry.

[nutildah]

Rpietila and other observers are kind to share their research, findings, and opinions with the community - this is how I feel. If you disagree, I am sorry.

How do you feel this way when he can't even answer a simple question like how is XMR less volatile than BTC as he claims?

You would think as a gifted analyst he would be able to answer this right away instead of avoiding the question altogether.

[saddambitcoin]

Rpietila and other observers are kind to share their research, findings, and opinions with the community - this is how I feel. If you disagree, I am sorry.

How do you feel this way when he can't even answer a simple question like how is XMR less volatile than BTC as he claims?

You would think as a gifted analyst he would be able to answer this right away instead of avoiding the question altogether.

He did explain it in the Monero Economics thread somewhere - I'm trying to find it.

Basically, the volume weighted average price of Monero over its entire existence is somewhere around 0.004. There have been several spikes but none beyond an order of magnitude (10x). Bitcoin has been much more volatile...of course.

I understand you are comparing the volatility of Monero compared to the volatility of Bitcoin during the last 2-3 months, we are talking about volatility of Bitcoin All-Time compared to volatility of Monero All-Time.

[fluffypony]

Mining with a secret, optimized miner over a period of several weeks could have easily produced a situation that rivals the DRK instamine in unfairness. The choices made in creating Monero facilitated this plan. I mean, this is truly the logic of a genius. BCN is unfair, so I'll just clone it without correct a major part of what made it unfair! And you guys call yourselves legitimate.

Monero was launched by thankful_for_today, not by us. It only really started to become "ours" on April 30th, and on May 7th the crippled hashing code was fixed and released (2.5 weeks after launch).



On May 4th the network was 20 000h/s (this was when the the crippled miner was in use). At that stage mining on one of my dedicated servers ran at around 11h/s, and an Amazon EC2 c3.8xlarge slice ran at just under 50h/s. Thus the network speed at that stage was the equivalent of 400 Amazon c3.8xlarge slices - considering a newly registered EC2 user can run 50 spot instances (spread across the regions) without increasing their limit, this is still within what we'd expect. And lest we forget that leading up to that point, Monero's hash rate hovered at about half of that.

But wait! There's more!



Block reward stayed consistent and exactly in line with the published mathematics.



And the emission curve stayed exactly as expected.

Absolutely nobody had some super-fast miner from the outset. It's plain, simple, and clear to see that there was no unfairness, no cheating.

The situation on the other side of the pond is vastly, vastly different: [1] [2]

[Wexlike]

Great post fluffypony ! It is just insane how fucked up DRK's instant/pre-mine is, when you compare the pictures. Monero had truly one of the best coin launches ever.

Again, great post.

[nutildah]

I understand you are comparing the volatility of Monero compared to the volatility of Bitcoin during the last 2-3 months, we are talking about volatility of Bitcoin All-Time compared to volatility of Monero All-Time.

Yes, but Monero by itself is worth virtually nothing. Its only because it can be exchanged for BTC that it has any value. So in order to be less volatile than bitcoin (you can only compare the 2 to the dollar when establishing a BTC volatility for comparison), it would have to correct to maintain parity with the dollar every single time BTC moved in price. This obviously hasn't happened and isn't happening; ergo XMR is more volatile than BTC.

XMR may be less volatile over its lifetime than most other alts, but its ridiculous to say its less volatile than BTC. That's why he isn't recreating his thought process for us in this thread.

[vuduchyld]

Great post fluffypony ! It is just insane how fucked up DRK's instant/pre-mine is, when you compare the pictures. Monero had truly one of the best coin launches ever.

Again, great post.

You guys are just preaching to your own sad, inbred choir I hope you know.

There's no way you'll ever convince me that XMR is less of a "scam" than DRK. There's no way. Its a sad sign for your coin if you guys are doing this here instead of in the DRK thread.

Interesting.  I'd say it's a sad sign for you to spend so much time here instead of some other thread.  Self-definition by negation is a tough way to live.

[luigi1111]

Mining with a secret, optimized miner over a period of several weeks could have easily produced a situation that rivals the DRK instamine in unfairness. The choices made in creating Monero facilitated this plan. I mean, this is truly the logic of a genius. BCN is unfair, so I'll just clone it without correct a major part of what made it unfair! And you guys call yourselves legitimate.

Monero was launched by thankful_for_today, not by us. It only really started to become "ours" on April 30th, and on May 7th the crippled hashing code was fixed and released (2.5 weeks after launch).

<snip>

On May 4th when the network was 20 000h/s (the the crippled miner was in use). At that stage mining on one of my dedicated servers ran at around 11h/s, and an Amazon EC2 c3.8xlarge slice ran at just under 50h/s. Thus the network speed at that stage was the equivalent of 400 Amazon c3.8xlarge slices - considering a newly registered EC2 user can run 50 spot instances (spread across the regions) without increasing their limit, this is still within what we'd expect. And lest we forget that leading up to that point, Monero's hash rate hovered at about half of that.

But wait! There's more!

<snip>

Block reward stayed consistent and exactly in line with the published mathematics.

<snip>

And the emission curve stayed exactly as expected.

Absolutely nobody had some super-fast miner from the outset. It's plain, simple, and clear to see that there was no unfairness, no cheating.

The situation on the other side of the pond is vastly, vastly different: [1] [2]

I just don't get why people are (still) arguing about this. (Some) People got (loads of) DRK for (really) cheap. (Some) People got (a lot of) XMR for (pretty) cheap. This is fact.

It is clear that whatever happened with XMR is orders of magnitude away from what happened with DRK. However, in either case, you didn't need to be in on day 1 (DRK instamine) or privy to the enhanced miner for several weeks (XMR) to profit, you simply needed to mine (or buy) and hold for a while. Early prices for DRK were in the neighborhood of 10k/BTC, XMR 2-3k/BTC.

It's also clear that Evan doesn't have 1 million+ DRK personally waiting to dump at the "peak" (at least not from mining). He has plenty though, I'm sure (though if he's still waiting to dump at the peak, it seems like he missed the mark pretty badly).

It has become quite the stigma for DRK though, with opinions varying wildly on how much it matters. I'm not convinced either coins' history is very relevant at this juncture (beyond the stigma for DRK). If Evan really somehow acquired 1 million+, what truly is he waiting for? We are talking about boatloads of money (to the average person). Was 25,000 BTC not enough (understanding he couldn't have offloaded all of it that high)? Even if he only got 100k--a somewhat-reasonable-but-too-low estimate IMO--we're still talking about 2,000+ BTC.

It's clear to me that both are legitimate projects. Technical merits are a whole 'nother topic.


It's of course possible I'm still wrong about him. If so, I believe he earns the title of "GrandMaster Scammer", as this would be a Madoff-sized operation relatively speaking.

[nutildah]

Interesting.  I'd say it's a sad sign for you to spend so much time here instead of some other thread.  Self-definition by negation is a tough way to live.

I'd say we're all sad for sitting around here wasting our precious lifetimes arguing about literally nothing. Does it really matter what thread you are wasting your precious, God-given lifetime in?

[wpalczynski]

Some questions are just too dumb to be addressed.

Rpietila and other observers are kind to share their research, findings, and opinions with the community - this is how I feel. If you disagree, I am sorry.

How do you feel this way when he can't even answer a simple question like how is XMR less volatile than BTC as he claims?

You would think as a gifted analyst he would be able to answer this right away instead of avoiding the question altogether.

[nioc]

Interesting.  I'd say it's a sad sign for you to spend so much time here instead of some other thread.  Self-definition by negation is a tough way to live.

I'd say we're all sad for sitting around here wasting our precious lifetimes arguing about literally nothing. Does it really matter what thread you are wasting your precious, God-given lifetime in?

Some questions are just too dumb to be addressed.

You're a fucking idiot.

Priceless

[Dotto]

Don´t feed the trolls, ignore them, and continue with the speculation, sirs

[stellarman]

Great post fluffypony ! It is just insane how fucked up DRK's instant/pre-mine is, when you compare the pictures. Monero had truly one of the best coin launches ever.

Again, great post.

I usually don't like to do this, but...

+100

Excellent post, FluffyPony.

[smooth]

relevant at this juncture (beyond the stigma for DRK)

"Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

The stigma is the point. Stigmas exist for a reason, which is to punish and deter socially harmful behavior. Fucking up coin launches is not something that can be excused. Even if (and this is a big if) there was nothing fraudulent in this case, merely incompetent, an atmosphere where such things are considered acceptable only opens the door to further fraud (which by its nature is almost always disguised as something, sometimes incompetence).

Coins with bad launches should be shunned and to the extent of their technical merit, if any, relaunched, cloned, learned from to do better, etc.

[Brilliantrocket]

relevant at this juncture (beyond the stigma for DRK)

"Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

The stigma is the point. Stigmas exist for a reason, which is to punish and deter socially harmful behavior. Fucking up coin launches is not something that can be excused. Even if (and this is a big if) there was nothing fraudulent in this case, merely incompetent, an atmosphere where such things are considered acceptable only opens the door to further fraud (which by its nature is almost always disguised as something, sometimes incompetence).

Coins with bad launches should be shunned and to the extent of their technical merit, if any, relaunched, cloned, learned from to do better, etc.

The fact that DRK is worth several times more than Monero is evidence that you're wrong. You're talking about your ideals, which do not necessarily reflect reality. Consider the fact that DRK is worth over $20 million, even though the instamine is well known. Outside of envious trolls and jaded altcoin developers, most people don't care.

[smooth]

relevant at this juncture (beyond the stigma for DRK)

"Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?"

The stigma is the point. Stigmas exist for a reason, which is to punish and deter socially harmful behavior. Fucking up coin launches is not something that can be excused. Even if (and this is a big if) there was nothing fraudulent in this case, merely incompetent, an atmosphere where such things are considered acceptable only opens the door to further fraud (which by its nature is almost always disguised as something, sometimes incompetence).

Coins with bad launches should be shunned and to the extent of their technical merit, if any, relaunched, cloned, learned from to do better, etc.

The fact that DRK is worth several times more than Monero is evidence that you're wrong. You're talking about your ideals, which do not necessarily reflect reality. Personally, I don't give two shits about fairness.

The game is not over. But if DRK in fact continues to be worth far more than XMR you will turn out to be right. Ultimately though, what you personally give two shits about doesn't matter. What matters is what helps or harms adoption over time, ie the growth rate, and any stigma that attaches to the coin, particularly when easily backed up by hard facts including charts, will continue to hurt growth rate more or less forever. Every one of these coins is currently very small in the grand scheme of things, even including XBT, but certainly all the alts.

BTW, I'm not sure DRK is still much bigger than XRM when considering the future capitalization at the current price (which I have argued is a better measure than current cap), given that XMR is less fully mined than DRK. I haven't worked out the numbers though so I don't know.

EDIT: looks like DRK is currently 1.47x more mined out than XMR, so the difference in effective market cap is less than a factor of three.

[kbm]

Monero was launched by thankful_for_today, not by us. It only really started to become "ours" on April 30th, and on May 7th the crippled hashing code was fixed and released (2.5 weeks after launch).

..
On May 4th when the network was 20 000h/s (the the crippled miner was in use). At that stage mining on one of my dedicated servers ran at around 11h/s, and an Amazon EC2 c3.8xlarge slice ran at just under 50h/s. Thus the network speed at that stage was the equivalent of 400 Amazon c3.8xlarge slices - considering a newly registered EC2 user can run 50 spot instances (spread across the regions) without increasing their limit, this is still within what we'd expect. And lest we forget that leading up to that point, Monero's hash rate hovered at about half of that.

But wait! There's more!

..

Block reward stayed consistent and exactly in line with the published mathematics.

..

And the emission curve stayed exactly as expected.

Absolutely nobody had some super-fast miner from the outset. It's plain, simple, and clear to see that there was no unfairness, no cheating.

The situation on the other side of the pond is vastly, vastly different: [1] [2]

I'm bookmarking this post. Visually observing the comparison here should make sense to anyone, especially those who have no prior experience with cryptocurrencies .. whom are looking for solid factual information that's easy to digest. What their choice is .. that's clearly up to them.

I was wondering what set the trend for this insane wave of week-long 'instamined' PoW coupled with a PoS forever after that .. seems this could have been what sparked the idea for it. It showed that people were okay with these types of things happening .. that this was an error that people were willing to let slide. Before that .. I can't think of anything else that was similar. What kind of message does that send to people? Are people still willing to let it slide?

[rpietila]

Rpietila and other observers are kind to share their research, findings, and opinions with the community - this is how I feel. If you disagree, I am sorry.

How do you feel this way when he can't even answer a simple question like how is XMR less volatile than BTC as he claims?

You would think as a gifted analyst he would be able to answer this right away instead of avoiding the question altogether.

I did not see your question. And even if I did, I "pick my battles" (choose which questions to answer) by the following criterion:

Does the answering to the question give me an excuse to deliver a message or drive home a point, intended for the general audience?

If it does not, I make a new post or new thread. If it does, I reply to the previous one.

As you noticed, this is "avoidance of the question" but hey if your time was worth as much as mine, you also would not assume a responsibility of responding to Internet trolls for free, just because they so request.