Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[statdude]

wah wah wah

Hey clown,

So it's ok for you to come in here and spam, yet you delete my posts in your thread

Fucking hypocrite, get out of here scum.

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic.

Quote from: statdude on Today at 04:10:06 PM
I wish I could support this but OP seems to be a negative troll so pass.

You felt compelled to write this down?

I did. Just so you know how it feels to have an asshole in your thread.


Players:

Be forewarned, before you buy XCP, that there is a major exploit available and being covered up by the lead dev putting your XCP at risk.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=708879.0

Fortunately, it looks like everyone is safe, as nobody is interested anyway.

Oops![/i][/u]

[rikkejohn]

I'll let you know.

Have always tried to be respectful in these forums. Unfortunately others don't share the same values.

Sure, but the shilling and odious campaign to promote XMR is so clear to people, so you have to accept some criticism.

No offence intended.

[nutildah]

wah wah wah
So it's ok for you to come in here and spam, yet you delete my posts in your thread

Yep. Shoulda started a moderated thread

[nutildah]

Have always tried to be respectful in these forums. Unfortunately others don't share the same values.

Hey clown,

So it's ok for you to come in here and spam, yet you delete my posts in your thread

Fucking hypocrite, get out of here scum.

[drawingthemoon]

Have always tried to be respectful in these forums. Unfortunately others don't share the same values.

Hey clown,

So it's ok for you to come in here and spam, yet you delete my posts in your thread

Fucking hypocrite, get out of here scum.

LOL reminds me of an old bash.org joke

#6068 +(2227)- [X]
<GaeMan> Chia: Be nice to CAgurl today.
<chirpet> I am always nice to CAgurl. I resent the implication.
<chirpet> I am nice to everyone.
<chirpet> Always.
<chirpet> So shut up.
<chirpet> pigfucker.

[statdude]

I tried to be respectful, despite your lack of dignity.

But, I have zero respect for censorzhip nazis. We have no need for self-moderated cowardice here.

I've proven my point.

GG

[drawingthemoon]

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

Can you please upload the dataset you used to come up with the numbers? Thanks in advance.

XMR prices prior to 5/20 can be found here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=578192.0

[rikkejohn]

I tried to be respectful, despite your lack of dignity.

But, I have zero respect for censorzhip nazis. We have no need for self-moderated cowardice here.

I've proven my point.

GG

the nazis did propaganda, too ... which you seem to accept regarding this coin

kind of hypocritical

[nutildah]

Can you please upload the dataset you used to come up with the numbers? Thanks in advance.

XMR prices prior to 5/20 can be found here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=578192.0

Yes, here you go. Thank you for your civility, it is appreciated. Even if my data is not 100% in line with your data, the results are so skewed in bitcoin's favor (of being less volatile) that it would take massive amounts of new XMR data for it to become less volatile than BTC.

BTC data from Coindesk-bip-USD-close, range "7/18/10 - 8/12/14"

XMR data I compiled from 2 separate sources:

Date   Price (BTC)   Change
5/19/2014   0.00415   
5/20/2014   0.00559798   34.89%
5/21/2014   0.003232   -42.26%
5/22/2014   0.0039   20.67%
5/23/2014   0.00550497   41.15%
5/24/2014   0.0077   39.87%
5/25/2014   0.00629   -18.31%
5/26/2014   0.0045   -28.46%
5/27/2014   0.003924   -12.80%
5/28/2014   0.00383727   -2.21%
5/29/2014   0.00295   -23.12%
5/30/2014   0.00255969   -13.23%
5/31/2014   0.0031033   21.24%
6/1/2014   0.0028   -9.77%
6/2/2014   0.00262   -6.43%
6/3/2014   0.00289908   10.65%
6/4/2014   0.0028   -3.42%
6/5/2014   0.0025228   -9.90%
6/6/2014   0.0019   -24.69%
6/7/2014   0.00208   9.47%
6/8/2014   0.00201   -3.37%
6/9/2014   0.002538   26.27%
6/10/2014   0.00264   4.02%
6/11/2014   0.002555   -3.22%
6/12/2014   0.00281   9.98%
6/13/2014   0.0032   13.88%
6/14/2014   0.00401   25.31%
6/15/2014   0.004476   11.62%
6/16/2014   0.00593   32.48%
6/17/2014   0.0047   -20.74%
6/18/2014   0.003947   -16.02%
6/19/2014   0.005316   34.68%
6/20/2014   0.00747   40.52%
6/21/2014   0.00857   14.73%
6/22/2014   0.00712   -16.92%
6/23/2014   0.00664   -6.74%
6/24/2014   0.00545   -17.92%
6/25/2014   0.00582   6.79%
6/26/2014   0.00512   -12.03%
6/27/2014   0.00361   -29.49%
6/28/2014   0.00427   18.28%
6/29/2014   0.0046123   8.02%
6/30/2014   0.00402   -12.84%
7/1/2014   0.00366559   -8.82%
7/2/2014   0.003545   -3.29%
7/3/2014   0.004155   17.21%
7/4/2014   0.0042   1.08%
7/5/2014   0.00382   -9.05%
7/6/2014   0.00381   -0.26%
7/7/2014   0.00315   -17.32%
7/8/2014   0.0037   17.46%
7/9/2014   0.003248   -12.22%
7/10/2014   0.00304   -6.40%
7/11/2014   0.0027911   -8.19%
7/12/2014   0.0028   0.32%
7/13/2014   0.0027   -3.57%
7/14/2014   0.00317928   17.75%
7/15/2014   0.0033959   6.81%
7/16/2014   0.00448075   31.95%
7/17/2014   0.00490133   9.39%
7/18/2014   0.00413945   -15.54%
7/19/2014   0.00458546   10.77%
7/20/2014   0.00421633   -8.05%
7/21/2014   0.00498104   18.14%
7/22/2014   0.00515013   3.39%
7/23/2014   0.00477196   -7.34%
7/24/2014   0.00395781   -17.06%
7/25/2014   0.00412676   4.27%
7/26/2014   0.0044016   6.66%
7/27/2014   0.00431727   -1.92%
7/28/2014   0.00458467   6.19%
7/29/2014   0.00447457   -2.40%
7/30/2014   0.00447197   -0.06%
7/31/2014   0.00438049   -2.05%
8/1/2014   0.00444913   1.57%
8/2/2014   0.0042411   -4.68%
8/3/2014   0.00402492   -5.10%
8/4/2014   0.00340911   -15.30%
8/5/2014   0.00369657   8.43%
8/6/2014   0.00374635   1.35%
8/7/2014   0.00363665   -2.93%
8/8/2014   0.0036766   1.10%
8/9/2014   0.00356557   -3.02%
8/10/2014   0.00345926   -2.98%
8/11/2014   0.00360913   4.33%
8/12/2014   0.003507   -2.83%

[statdude]

the nazis did propaganda, too ... which you seem to accept regarding this coin

kind of hypocritical

Umm, excuse me, how exactly am I promoting propaganda or being hypocritical?

Instead, he feels it's necessary to tack on extremely excessive personal insults and trollling. I have zero respect for that.

I've never said anyone should troll any non-XMR thread or "do propaganda", can you prove that, please?

Sorry, you seem to be grasping at straws.

[statdude]

Great, Nutildah proved his point (not that it actually matters), maybe he should now visit this page:

Being Too Literal : Living With Mental Illness Forum
http://www.psychforums.com/living-with-mental-illness/topic73233.html

[nutildah]

Great, Nutildah proved his point, maybe he should now visit this page:

Being Too Literal : Living With Mental Illness Forum
http://www.psychforums.com/living-with-mental-illness/topic73233.html

As a professional fraud analyst I've helped put psychiatrists behind bars. If only XMR were held to some sort of regulatory standards I could try to do the same with you.

[othe]

I tried to be respectful, despite your lack of dignity.

But, I have zero respect for censorzhip nazis. We have no need for self-moderated cowardice here.

I've proven my point.

GG

the nazis did propaganda, too ... which you seem to accept regarding this coin

kind of hypocritical

Why don´t you just go back to your Litecoin investment thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=734914.msg8338609#msg8338609
and let us alone here... You obviously aren´t interested in XMR so why do you waste your time here; we aren´t interested in LTC but that doesn´t mean we are hijacking your threads with bullshit.
I can feel you, its sad that LTC is down 33.50% in the last 30 days while XMR is up 20% (src: bitcoinwisdom) but thats not our problem.

[statdude]

Great, Nutildah proved his point, maybe he should now visit this page:

Being Too Literal : Living With Mental Illness Forum
http://www.psychforums.com/living-with-mental-illness/topic73233.html

As a professional fraud analyst I've helped put psychiatrists behind bars. If only XMR were held to some sort of regulatory standards I could try to do the same with you.

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic? For one, it doesn't really make sense. What does putting psychiatrists behind bars have to do with XMR?  Hah!

And sorry, I don't consider $15/hr "Fraud Analyst" (yuk) to be "professional" on any level. I had friends that were "fraud analysts" when they were 19, how old are you?

Finally, how would regulatory standards have anything to do with me, as a simple holder? Are you insinuating people who own BTC should be "put behind bars too"?

Wow. Thank goodness they can't touch my XMR.

-P.S, I REALLY love how you deleted my posts right after posting this:

Go ahead and troll my thread though, its fine with me. You're only making yourself look like an idiot.

Why delete my posts if "it's fine" and "I'm only making myself look like an idiot"?

Weak, bro.

[nutildah]

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

[drawingthemoon]

It might be you. And the more relavant part of the convo might get buried because of your personal resolution in the previous page to attack some posters.

Still like to see the raw data in maybe google spreadsheet as I wanted to derive some more numbers (for both XMR and BTC)

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

[statdude]

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

By "guys", I was referring actual XMR speculators, not you or any other trolls or shills.

Just to make that abundantly clear.

[canonsburg]

Why are you using average % daily change to measure volatility?

Why not use the more conventional measure of variance?

[blaaaaacksuit]

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

No it's not.

[nutildah]

Still like to see the raw data in maybe google spreadsheet as I wanted to derive some more numbers (for both XMR and BTC)

Really? You're not even going to attempt to get them for yourself? That's a surefire sign you are worried you may not be correct. OK fine, be that way:

http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Under "Historical Bitcoin Price" on the right-hand side of the screen, click "Download Historical Price Data."

The XMR data I combined from coingecko and Poloniex:

https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc/30_days
https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

Whatever flaws in my methodology you want to point to won't matter. You can recreate the analysis whatever way you want and the result will still be that bitcoin is less volatile than monero.

Reptilia was just pulling numbers out of his ass in his original declaration.