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Author Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread  (Read 49754 times)
dnaleor
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August 20, 2014, 12:38:53 AM
 #781

bought xmr today.

 Smiley

My parents bought XMR today Wink

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August 20, 2014, 04:07:08 AM
Last edit: August 20, 2014, 04:19:55 AM by aminorex
 #782

Any rational basis to estimate the top of this major run?

My thought is that the recent low ebb was a major bottom, the first time we truly ran out of coins to sell, because the selling was so aggressive.  Since the previous monthly high was 0058, within a general pattern of monthly peaks, it seems we should pass 0058 this month, to set a pattern of higher highs.  Otherwise, we haven't really broken the downtrend since listing, and as we just reached a major bottom, we are more likely to establish a new uptrend than not.

However, since the bottom took so very long to form, it may be that it will not be until mid-September that we form a solid new local high, above 0058.  Time will tell.  I have no basis to estimate the timing any better than that.


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August 20, 2014, 04:13:30 AM
 #783

Any rational basis to estimate the top of this major run?

The sky is the limit. I'm calling 0.09 as a bear minimum.

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August 20, 2014, 04:50:48 AM
 #784

there are offers at the top of the book for 35k XMR if anyone wants liquidity

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August 20, 2014, 05:05:06 AM
 #785

I expect the downtrend will now continue until everyone decides it has gone far enough and immense buying will ensue. If the pattern continues, the next rally will happen around August 20th 2014.

Looks like my call was 1 day late! I'd like to give everyone a pat on the back if they held strong...I really hope for your sake you did. Otherwise buy back soon.

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August 20, 2014, 05:19:25 AM
 #786

Any rational basis to estimate the top of this major run?

My thought is that the recent low ebb was a major bottom, the first time we truly ran out of coins to sell, because the selling was so aggressive.  Since the previous monthly high was 0058, within a general pattern of monthly peaks, it seems we should pass 0058 this month, to set a pattern of higher highs.  Otherwise, we haven't really broken the downtrend since listing, and as we just reached a major bottom, we are more likely to establish a new uptrend than not.

However, since the bottom took so very long to form, it may be that it will not be until mid-September that we form a solid new local high, above 0058.  Time will tell.  I have no basis to estimate the timing any better than that.



I really found it interesting how there were 200,000 XMR for sale just recently on Poloniex...then about 70,000 xmr were consumed in the past few days without any increase in the buy depth (less than 200 btc). Just now is the first major support at 0.00358.


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August 20, 2014, 07:39:37 AM
 #787

Hi folks!

I got sick of all the altcoin pump and dumps around and dismissed all altcoins for 6 months and focused on BTC. But now i feel/see an increasing demand in alts with anonymity as a key feature.

I am sure you have done a lot more reading / researching on this matter.

What makes monero stand out in comparison to other alts like DRK for example?

cheers!



DRK relies on masternodes, which is as centralized as it gets. Monero doesnt need masternodes.

That one is pretty much enough but there are many pages with the whole list...

to answer the question of camu6:  monero leads among its peers by a factor of 32 or more, in terms of liquidity.  that advantage is almost impossible to overcome.  app-like features don't help liquidity - they create frictions that resist pure monetary liquidity.  the peers i consider are fairly launched, honest, open-source coins with sound cryptographic foundations and competent developers that have sufficient mathematical and (game theoretical cum social) team credibility and (monetary) value-propositions to be viable long-terms stores of wealth.

you will find that the median quality of discussion in monero threads is indicative of user and development communities with a sense of purpose responsibily, and relative security in their positions, with a congenial humor.  i hope that it will add more entrepreneurs as it grows, while demonstrating a resistance to scams, as might be characteristic of an intelligent and educated, skeptical community.

in monero these features are built upon the foundation of a heavily reviewed code base and a development culture of transparency and non-ideological, low-drama meritocracy, with a very strong, almost axiomatic, commitment to its social contract.  development has a history of solid steady progress, prioritized suitably to the long-term development of robust technical foundations for core features necessary to a usable private liquidity vehicle, and while the players have been dynamic, the development progress and direction has been stable and coherent, indicating a productive homeostasis.


thanks for your replies Smiley
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August 20, 2014, 08:43:41 AM
 #788

26k XMR buy wall @  0.00358. Also the total ask dropped to 124k, which was around 200k in the recent downtrend I recall

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August 20, 2014, 09:05:27 AM
 #789

26k XMR buy wall @  0.00358. Also the total ask dropped to 124k, which was around 200k in the recent downtrend I recall

The bids, asks and walls outside the current market (more than 10k xmr away) matter nothing.

The recent buyer who bid the market up 10% and set a huge wall to defend the gains and buy more, is very meaningful. If the wall does not budge, it will probably never get filled. But it may be that a dumper feels this is the way to get rid of the coins at a good price, in which case it would get sold into, triggering a fall but solidifying the economy (stronger hands).

Also, in a more insidious level, this might be an accumulator whose market idea is to give the market hope, then sell to his own wall in a repeating sequence while getting also others to sell and set up an avalanche back to the 3 area where he could buy more. But I think the market is too tapped out for that. The last volume to buy was when defending 334, and the dumper smashed us all. But see - we are already ahead!! Smiley

The developments just now are difficult to interpret, but my call that bottom would be felt last Sunday is still in force. (Some may confirm that I laid out my prediction already a week in advance, but then it was not public yet.)
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August 20, 2014, 09:35:41 AM
 #790

26k XMR buy wall @  0.00358. Also the total ask dropped to 124k, which was around 200k in the recent downtrend I recall

The bids, asks and walls outside the current market (more than 10k xmr away) matter nothing.

The recent buyer who bid the market up 10% and set a huge wall to defend the gains and buy more, is very meaningful. If the wall does not budge, it will probably never get filled. But it may be that a dumper feels this is the way to get rid of the coins at a good price, in which case it would get sold into, triggering a fall but solidifying the economy (stronger hands).

Also, in a more insidious level, this might be an accumulator whose market idea is to give the market hope, then sell to his own wall in a repeating sequence while getting also others to sell and set up an avalanche back to the 3 area where he could buy more. But I think the market is too tapped out for that. The last volume to buy was when defending 334, and the dumper smashed us all. But see - we are already ahead!! Smiley

The developments just now are difficult to interpret, but my call that bottom would be felt last Sunday is still in force. (Some may confirm that I laid out my prediction already a week in advance, but then it was not public yet.)

Thanks for the insight! Wall seems to be real as there is being sold into, it's now @ 0.00361. Probably just a big XMR holder pushing up to price for his own good. Personally I don't think its an accumulator and that the market was oversold @ 0.0029. The seller already sold through 0.00334, but I think he ran out of coins @ 0.0029 and there were no other sellers to back him up..

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August 20, 2014, 10:03:28 AM
 #791

lol that manipulation - let us see how it works out
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August 20, 2014, 10:37:22 AM
 #792

Now there seems to be a lot of manipulation.

- If you want to remain sane, look only at the daily VWAP. They tell that the bottom was reached Sunday, and since that, it has been going up daily.

- If you want to make money, make markets (putting both bid and ask orders a little bit away from the spot). This way the manipulators' volatility becomes your gain.
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August 20, 2014, 01:02:13 PM
 #793

There is already over 9,000 XMR infront of the wall! Bids are building up nice. This is the true trend reversal we are seeing.

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August 20, 2014, 01:22:35 PM
 #794

There is already over 9,000 XMR infront of the wall! Bids are building up nice. This is the true trend reversal we are seeing.

Wall is at 0.00384 now, rpietila how high do you think this run-up will go? Fundamentals are looking much better than the run-up to 0.01 and 0.0058..

@ Aminorex, which price do you think is sustainable? Looking at mining and inflation?

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August 20, 2014, 02:01:05 PM
 #795

Very hard to say.  Cheesy
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August 20, 2014, 02:05:43 PM
 #796

which price do you think is sustainable? Looking at mining and inflation?

That is entirely a function of how much capital people are willing to flow into the coin. That in turn is a function of both usage and speculation, so in practice at this point almost entirely speculation, though we are beginning to see the first glimmers of usage.

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August 20, 2014, 02:27:35 PM
Last edit: August 20, 2014, 03:08:23 PM by rpietila
 #797

That is entirely a function of how much capital people are willing to flow into the coin. That in turn is a function of both usage and speculation, so in practice at this point almost entirely speculation, though we are beginning to see the first glimmers of usage.

During the last 2 weeks, I have:
- fulfilled the "20 monero pizza" deal when the former Mayor of Rakvere (no previous association with any crypto) drove 30 kilometres to deliver 2 steaming pizzas to Malla;
- paid a part of our chef's salary in XMR;
- paid a part of our waiter's wages in XMR;
- signed a business venture denominated in XMR, paid my share in XMR;
- sold some XMR for BTC, OTC;
- tried to buy some similarly, but was defaulted upon (thanks escrow);
- decided to accept XMR for everything in Malla, in equal terms as BTC.

Not bad for a currency without any usage whatsoever... Wink
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August 20, 2014, 03:57:30 PM
 #798

I just had a lovely meeting with one of the founders of an enterprise who does bitcoin swaps with hedge funds.  Funds often are not interested in the custodial issues of bitcoin.  In other securities, their prime broker would handle such details.  What they are comfortable with is swaps. In order to gain exposure (long or short) to bitcoin, they need a swaps counterparty, and banks won't touch the stuff.  The company is quite a clever niche player, with a lot of growth potential.  If they ever wanted a machine learning / econometric modeling guy with crypto exposure, I'd be tempted.  I will definitely hook them up with fund contacts which are interested in the crypto space.  While most of the principals have plenty of BTC exposure in their PA, the enterprise is delta-neutral, and lives on carry.

He was very interested in Monero.  I hit all the high points, the natural monopoly liquidity provider niche, the enhanced upside relative to BTC, the quality of the development work, the fair launch, the rigorous crypto, the fungibility hedge.  Most other aspects I might emphasize to another audience were mostly redundant.  He got it right away.  He asked about the relation to DRK, Zerocash, which he was aware of, and BCN of which I informed him, and I addressed these to his satisfaction.  He won't take my word for any of this, I am sure:  He will do a thorough work of diligence, and add it to the portfolio of options which are provided to his company's clients, which are mostly funds, family offices, and prop desks.

I think it was a productive meeting, for Monero, because this company is a network nexus in the financial community for things crypto.  The proselytic impact will be highly levered by the social network centrality of the subject.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 20, 2014, 04:02:31 PM
 #799

- signed a business venture denominated in XMR, paid my share in XMR;

Colour me curious. Can you elaborate?
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August 20, 2014, 04:54:07 PM
 #800

I just had a lovely meeting with one of the founders of an enterprise who does bitcoin swaps with hedge funds.  Funds often are not interested in the custodial issues of bitcoin.  In other securities, their prime broker would handle such details.  What they are comfortable with is swaps. In order to gain exposure (long or short) to bitcoin, they need a swaps counterparty, and banks won't touch the stuff.  The company is quite a clever niche player, with a lot of growth potential.  If they ever wanted a machine learning / econometric modeling guy with crypto exposure, I'd be tempted.  I will definitely hook them up with fund contacts which are interested in the crypto space.  While most of the principals have plenty of BTC exposure in their PA, the enterprise is delta-neutral, and lives on carry.

He was very interested in Monero.  I hit all the high points, the natural monopoly liquidity provider niche, the enhanced upside relative to BTC, the quality of the development work, the fair launch, the rigorous crypto, the fungibility hedge.  Most other aspects I might emphasize to another audience were mostly redundant.  He got it right away.  He asked about the relation to DRK, Zerocash, which he was aware of, and BCN of which I informed him, and I addressed these to his satisfaction.  He won't take my word for any of this, I am sure:  He will do a thorough work of diligence, and add it to the portfolio of options which are provided to his company's clients, which are mostly funds, family offices, and prop desks.

I think it was a productive meeting, for Monero, because this company is a network nexus in the financial community for things crypto.  The proselytic impact will be highly levered by the social network centrality of the subject.


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