comparing the entire event to a fictional story for easy understanding...
Dogecoins are available cheap around 70 satoshi, but if there is an exchange like cryptsy programmed with bots to buy dogecoins daily at an increasing price but with no underlying bitcoins paid to exchange..This would drive the price of dogecoins very high..As long as the people cashing out are less than people buying in, this would not put the exchange in problem to withdraw funds, but this is exactly what will happen in a buyers market which is happening.
Even arbitrage and free market wont drive price lower because there is constant ballooning of price at one exchange which is fundamentally a fake activity..
This could even continue until the price of each dogecoin is one million, people around the world believe that each doge is worth a milion and buy and sell for that price, but when this fake activity is exposed then the price will collapse because fundementally the supply demand of dogecoin does not fix the price at one million a coin..this will cause a panic sale at first and then slowly declining price until it is finally back to 70 satoshi or slightly above than that because free market utlimately corrects all manipulations...
Applying this to bitcoin, the price of bitcoin then should be around the price before this fake bot activity started, which is around 100-200$..
but all these is only when these reports are proved to be true..
One thing you are failing to factor into your equation is that Gox, China, IRS, Bots etc all added exposure for an idea that was not that well known. It spread news of bitcoin more into the mainstream consciousness. And while all of these news events were bad this was counter balanced by the fervor of the bitcoin community responding with its knowledge.
Add so in the past year more places are accepting bitcoin, there are more forums, there are more books, there are more start up companies and venture capitalists, ATMs, exchanges, apps, software maturity, etc. The infrastructure technological, societal and even Governmental has developed as a result of the exposure. And all of that adds value to bitcoin. It'll never see $100 again.
I was thinking about this explanation for sometimes,it really makes sense, but do you also realize that for such an exposure to happen for bitcoins among the mainstream consiousness, a lot of people had to lose a lot of money and cry(i am talking about the Mt.Gox depositors)..
