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Author Topic: This year's high: Smart guessing or TA  (Read 1912 times)
wobber
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February 04, 2012, 08:26:26 AM
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Hello. What do you think will be this year's high? Will be surpass $30 and what will happen then? A new drop or a rocket-rally to 50 or 100? Could bitcoin really go there?



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Blind
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February 04, 2012, 12:30:50 PM
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$10,000 at least, no doubt.

I've promised my family that once we become millionaires, we'll eat chicken for a whole month!

Government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem. -- Ronald Reagan
MaxSan
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February 04, 2012, 01:42:12 PM
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70usd
kokjo
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February 04, 2012, 01:45:05 PM
 #4

1,000,000 usd/btc , at least could go to 2 or 3 mill.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
ArsenShnurkov
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February 04, 2012, 01:45:55 PM
 #5

We already passed the highest point. This year downtrend will continue:


This downtrend have fundamental reason - it's miners emission of new bitcoins.
ArsenShnurkov
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February 04, 2012, 02:52:57 PM
 #6

No new people ever want Bitcoin?  Sad

Sure, they will not buy bitcoins.

Look - china and india are not adopted bitcoin, OTC market activity shrinks, even SilkRoad is forced to decrease prices.
The only users of bitcoin are americans, and other world don't want to feed them.

chsados
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February 04, 2012, 02:55:22 PM
 #7

$10,000 at least, no doubt.

I've promised my family that once we become millionaires, we'll eat chicken for a whole month!


woot! 

Bigpiggy01
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February 04, 2012, 03:30:38 PM
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No new people ever want Bitcoin?  Sad

Sure, they will not buy bitcoins.

Look - china and india are not adopted bitcoin, OTC market activity shrinks, even SilkRoad is forced to decrease prices.
The only users of bitcoin are americans, and other world don't want to feed them.



Ummm dude http://taobao.com alone has more or less as many merchants willing to take bitcoin payments as the US does ok they may not be getting a ton of volume but they are there and language may be an issue for the international customer but btc in China is doing better than in a lot of places. LOL it's the perfect way for peeps here to get cash out of the country neatly bypassing fucked up banking regulations etc.

I want to buy cheap btc too but I usually make my bear comments a bit less fuddy  Wink

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February 04, 2012, 03:32:53 PM
 #9

We already passed the highest point. This year downtrend will continue:

This downtrend have fundamental reason - it's miners emission of new bitcoins.

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

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February 04, 2012, 03:37:54 PM
 #10

Quote
According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

Wasn't that Nagle? I think AresnShnurkov was aiming much lower  Grin

ArsenShnurkov
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February 04, 2012, 03:39:15 PM
 #11

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

It's statistic errors. In may 2010 we got one guy why bought everything up to $30, and he already left the market.
In Jan 2011 there come another fanatic, but he already gave out his money to miners also.

Bitcoin network doesn't need such a security right now, that's why bitcoin rate should be significantly lower then it is now.

According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1
anu
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February 04, 2012, 04:06:04 PM
 #12

According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1

You are right, I, like most of us mere mortals never understood logarithms and sines. Although they say that both are actually the same. So surely you can also explain your deep math in terms of sine functions?

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ArsenShnurkov
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February 04, 2012, 04:07:44 PM
 #13

So surely you can also explain your deep math in terms of sine functions?

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anu
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February 04, 2012, 04:12:26 PM
 #14

So surely you can also explain your deep math in terms of sine functions?

Sure, sign to my 5 BTC subscribtion with random advices

+1

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gewure
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February 04, 2012, 05:04:08 PM
 #15

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

It's statistic errors. In may 2010 we got one guy why bought everything up to $30, and he already left the market.
In Jan 2011 there come another fanatic, but he already gave out his money to miners also.

Bitcoin network doesn't need such a security right now, that's why bitcoin rate should be significantly lower then it is now.

According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1

arsen, have you ever traded stocks?!

under 1$ - that would make the whole bitcoin economy worth < 8.000.000$ ..
you know - only silkroad would probably be worth > 1.000.000$ if traded on stock markets.

further 1$ is UNDER the price of production of bitcoin, so i guess most miner would stop at 1$

even further: there are probably buy order for more than 8.000.000 bitcoin at 1$ - it's just 8 million to own ALL bitcoin.

... estimates say the mining industry only is worth 16.7 million

conclusion: your pessism badly lacks fundamentals ^^
anu
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February 04, 2012, 05:26:02 PM
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even further: there are probably buy order for more than 8.000.000 bitcoin at 1$ - it's just 8 million to own ALL bitcoin.

I absolutelly agree with you, but if you really own all Bitcoins and the last price was $1, you don't really own 8 Million Wink

I don't see Bitcoin surviving a fall to under $1. There would have to be a reason for that to happen, though.

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ArsenShnurkov
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February 04, 2012, 07:40:39 PM
 #17

your pessism badly lacks fundamentals ^^

Your estimations doesn't include speed/velocity of money.
If it's larger than one, then your should have less bitcoins to support money flow.

And mining doesn't counts, because it is bitcoin-specific business (it will die if bitcoin die).
StewartJ
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February 04, 2012, 10:36:29 PM
 #18

After suffering a catastrophic failure/scandal, Bitcoin will be replaced with Litecoin.

All early Litecoin adopters will find themselves instantly wealthy.   Cool

notme
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February 04, 2012, 11:38:01 PM
 #19

After suffering a catastrophic failure/scandal, Bitcoin will be replaced with Litecoin.

All early Litecoin adopters will find themselves instantly wealthy.   Cool



I could go for that Wink.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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StewartJ
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February 05, 2012, 04:57:03 AM
 #20

After suffering a catastrophic failure/scandal, Bitcoin will be replaced with Litecoin.

All early Litecoin adopters will find themselves instantly wealthy.   Cool



I could go for that Wink.

I can dream, can't I?
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