This year's high: Smart guessing or TA

[wobber]

Hello. What do you think will be this year's high? Will be surpass $30 and what will happen then? A new drop or a rocket-rally to 50 or 100? Could bitcoin really go there?

[1713573680]

1713573680

[1713573680]

1713573680

[1713573680]

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[Blind]

$10,000 at least, no doubt.

I've promised my family that once we become millionaires, we'll eat chicken for a whole month!

[MaxSan]

70usd

[kokjo]

1,000,000 usd/btc , at least could go to 2 or 3 mill.

[ArsenShnurkov]

We already passed the highest point. This year downtrend will continue:


This downtrend have fundamental reason - it's miners emission of new bitcoins.

[ArsenShnurkov]

No new people ever want Bitcoin?  

Sure, they will not buy bitcoins.

Look - china and india are not adopted bitcoin, OTC market activity shrinks, even SilkRoad is forced to decrease prices.
The only users of bitcoin are americans, and other world don't want to feed them.

[chsados]

$10,000 at least, no doubt.

I've promised my family that once we become millionaires, we'll eat chicken for a whole month!

woot! 

[Bigpiggy01]

No new people ever want Bitcoin?  

Sure, they will not buy bitcoins.

Look - china and india are not adopted bitcoin, OTC market activity shrinks, even SilkRoad is forced to decrease prices.
The only users of bitcoin are americans, and other world don't want to feed them.

Ummm dude http://taobao.com alone has more or less as many merchants willing to take bitcoin payments as the US does ok they may not be getting a ton of volume but they are there and language may be an issue for the international customer but btc in China is doing better than in a lot of places. LOL it's the perfect way for peeps here to get cash out of the country neatly bypassing fucked up banking regulations etc.

I want to buy cheap btc too but I usually make my bear comments a bit less fuddy 

[anu]

We already passed the highest point. This year downtrend will continue:

This downtrend have fundamental reason - it's miners emission of new bitcoins.

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

[Bigpiggy01]

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

Wasn't that Nagle? I think AresnShnurkov was aiming much lower 

[ArsenShnurkov]

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

It's statistic errors. In may 2010 we got one guy why bought everything up to $30, and he already left the market.
In Jan 2011 there come another fanatic, but he already gave out his money to miners also.

Bitcoin network doesn't need such a security right now, that's why bitcoin rate should be significantly lower then it is now.

According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1

[anu]

According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1

You are right, I, like most of us mere mortals never understood logarithms and sines. Although they say that both are actually the same. So surely you can also explain your deep math in terms of sine functions?

[ArsenShnurkov]

So surely you can also explain your deep math in terms of sine functions?

Sure, sign to my 5 BTC subscribtion with random advices

[anu]

So surely you can also explain your deep math in terms of sine functions?

Sure, sign to my 5 BTC subscribtion with random advices

+1

[gewure]

According to your predictions from last year, we should be at $-8 by now. What went wrong?

It's statistic errors. In may 2010 we got one guy why bought everything up to $30, and he already left the market.
In Jan 2011 there come another fanatic, but he already gave out his money to miners also.

Bitcoin network doesn't need such a security right now, that's why bitcoin rate should be significantly lower then it is now.

According to $-8 estimation - you take very simple linear approach. If you look at log charts you will see that we should be just below $1

arsen, have you ever traded stocks?!

under 1$ - that would make the whole bitcoin economy worth < 8.000.000$ ..
you know - only silkroad would probably be worth > 1.000.000$ if traded on stock markets.

further 1$ is UNDER the price of production of bitcoin, so i guess most miner would stop at 1$

even further: there are probably buy order for more than 8.000.000 bitcoin at 1$ - it's just 8 million to own ALL bitcoin.

... estimates say the mining industry only is worth 16.7 million

conclusion: your pessism badly lacks fundamentals ^^

[anu]

even further: there are probably buy order for more than 8.000.000 bitcoin at 1$ - it's just 8 million to own ALL bitcoin.

I absolutelly agree with you, but if you really own all Bitcoins and the last price was $1, you don't really own 8 Million

I don't see Bitcoin surviving a fall to under $1. There would have to be a reason for that to happen, though.

[ArsenShnurkov]

your pessism badly lacks fundamentals ^^

Your estimations doesn't include speed/velocity of money.
If it's larger than one, then your should have less bitcoins to support money flow.

And mining doesn't counts, because it is bitcoin-specific business (it will die if bitcoin die).

[StewartJ]

After suffering a catastrophic failure/scandal, Bitcoin will be replaced with Litecoin.

All early Litecoin adopters will find themselves instantly wealthy.   

[notme]

After suffering a catastrophic failure/scandal, Bitcoin will be replaced with Litecoin.

All early Litecoin adopters will find themselves instantly wealthy.   

I could go for that .

[StewartJ]

After suffering a catastrophic failure/scandal, Bitcoin will be replaced with Litecoin.

All early Litecoin adopters will find themselves instantly wealthy.   

I could go for that .

I can dream, can't I?