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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 08:26:05 PM
Last edit: February 26, 2018, 09:18:52 PM by thefiniteidea |
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I'd like to share this chart with you from my blog (some of you have already seen this)...  I really think this chart is awesome. What I've done is priced both Bitcoin and QQQ, a popular Nasdaq Index ETF, in terms of Gold (GC1!). This is so we can remove the goggles of inflation and gauge the real value of these price movements against a common denominator. In doing so, we can see a direct correlation between the overall market (especially tech) and Bitcoin. Consequently, this leads me to believe that analysis done on the broader markets can be used to predict bitcoin's price movements too. It makes sense. They're all affected by the same pool of capital. The bottom line is, I think we're getting close to the end of a spectacular bull run for both equities and bitcoin.Again, if investment in bitcoin is related to global capital investment (which the QQQ correlation attempts to prove), then this next chart is why I believe a large correction for the markets and bitcoin is impending (some of you have already seen this too)...  This is a chart of the SP 500 equities index. As you can see, we are reaching the peak of a converging pennant. With very little room to move and decreasing volume as it narrows. For the last 5+ years, prices have consistently held within the boundaries of this area. However, that can't last. A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding. Granted, this is speculation. That's why it's in this area. I know it's not the "to the moon" analysis everyone wants to see either, but it might be analysis worth considering. If there's enough interest in this topic, I can keep it updated with new charts as we go along. Good luck! |
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YipYip
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May 26, 2014, 08:29:04 PM |
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hmmm too much ReaDing ...my eyes hurty
HODL or TRADL ??
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OBJECT NOT FOUND
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gentlemand
Legendary
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Activity: 2590
Merit: 3013
Welt Am Draht
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May 26, 2014, 08:32:25 PM |
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Same pools of capital? But there's no one investing in Bitcoin apart from believers, weirdos and ultra fringe speculators. Hardly any of the same capital has arrived yet. And I'll bet that a significant chunk of crypto holders have never put any money into gold or stocks.
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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 08:38:08 PM |
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Same pools of capital? But there's no one investing in Bitcoin apart from believers, weirdos and ultra fringe speculators. Hardly any of the same capital has arrived yet. And I'll bet that a significant chunk of crypto holders have never put any money into gold or stocks.
If what you're saying is true, then the end result of the analysis is still true. You need the larger pools of capital if Bitcoin is going to make new high's. |
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gentlemand
Legendary
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Activity: 2590
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Welt Am Draht
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May 26, 2014, 08:40:44 PM |
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Same pools of capital? But there's no one investing in Bitcoin apart from believers, weirdos and ultra fringe speculators. Hardly any of the same capital has arrived yet. And I'll bet that a significant chunk of crypto holders have never put any money into gold or stocks.
If what you're saying is true, then the end result of the analysis is still true. You need the larger pools of capital if Bitcoin is going to make new high's. We shall see I guess. If I remember rightly there are some other countries outside that US place though. |
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damnek
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May 26, 2014, 08:45:53 PM |
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Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.
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bigdave
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May 26, 2014, 08:47:29 PM |
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Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.
He's saying Bitcoin is finished. |
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damnek
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May 26, 2014, 08:48:49 PM |
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Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.
He's saying Bitcoin is finished. Right, that's pretty much the only thing I could make out of that fog of bragging, dogecoin and incoherent comparisons without further justification  |
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Torque
Legendary
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Activity: 3556
Merit: 5041
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May 26, 2014, 08:49:30 PM |
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A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding.
TL;DR - Man, that was a lot of writing just to out yourself as a troll day trader who is shorting. Getting nervous? |
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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 08:53:38 PM |
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Same pools of capital? But there's no one investing in Bitcoin apart from believers, weirdos and ultra fringe speculators. Hardly any of the same capital has arrived yet. And I'll bet that a significant chunk of crypto holders have never put any money into gold or stocks.
If what you're saying is true, then the end result of the analysis is still true. You need the larger pools of capital if Bitcoin is going to make new high's. We shall see I guess. If I remember rightly there are some other countries outside that US place though. Of course. But global markets are interrelated and tend to react based off the trading which occurs in the US, so comparing Bitcoin and a US equities index makes sense in my view. Not to mention, that Bitcoin-QQQ correlation speaks for itself, no? |
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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 08:58:00 PM |
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Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.
He's saying Bitcoin is finished. Right, that's pretty much the only thing I could make out of that fog of bragging, dogecoin and incoherent comparisons without further justification Well, your comment was certainly worth reading too.  |
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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 08:59:44 PM |
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A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding.
TL;DR - Man, that was a lot of writing just to out yourself as a troll day trader who is shorting. Getting nervous? Please, share your analysis with us. We'd all enjoy a better perspective from a non-troll day trader. |
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gentlemand
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Activity: 2590
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Welt Am Draht
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May 26, 2014, 09:00:41 PM |
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My take is that the Bitcoin market is far too young, warped and piddly to compare it to anything else or make any predictions yet.
If it was a few decades old and spread wherever it will eventually spread then I'd feel more confident doing that.
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Arghhh
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May 26, 2014, 09:02:40 PM |
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Welcome shorter #19234. Your analysis #12934 will be scrutinized shortly.
Is this the end of bitcoin you ask?
NO.
Now take a number and go sit over there with fonzie, igorr, and DanV.
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BitcoinBobbeh
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May 26, 2014, 09:06:15 PM |
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Same pools of capital? But there's no one investing in Bitcoin apart from believers, weirdos and ultra fringe speculators. Hardly any of the same capital has arrived yet. And I'll bet that a significant chunk of crypto holders have never put any money into gold or stocks.
I opened a CoinBase account before I opened an E-Trade account.  |
By the end of next month at the latest we will have permanently left behind 3 digits. You can quote me on this.
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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 09:07:39 PM |
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My take is that the Bitcoin market is far too young, warped and piddly to compare it to anything else or make any predictions yet.
If it was a few decades old and spread wherever it will eventually spread then I'd feel more confident doing that.
That's why I'm comparing it to other young markets. The QQQ is an ETF derived from the NASDAQ composite index, which is a good indication of investment in the tech sector. Bitcoin correlates well to the QQQ's movements. |
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Dragonkiller
Sr. Member
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Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!
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May 26, 2014, 09:08:29 PM |
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Your methodology is stupid.
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YipYip
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May 26, 2014, 09:14:37 PM |
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Welcome shorter #19234. Your analysis #12934 will be scrutinized shortly.
Is this the end of bitcoin you ask?
NO.
Now take a number and go sit over there with fonzie, igorr, and DanV.
dont forget MatTheBearCat and our long lost departed brother Cosmofly who was last report boarding a malaysian airlines flight MH370 Cosmo why you fly  ? We need your Intelect and insight as for some reason there is this bullish trend & maybe your retarded rain man friend can help me understand why me lose much money shorting |
OBJECT NOT FOUND
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thefiniteidea (OP)
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May 26, 2014, 09:15:40 PM |
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A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding.
TL;DR - Man, that was a lot of writing just to out yourself as a troll day trader who is shorting. Getting nervous? Please, share your analysis with us. We'd all enjoy a better perspective from a non-troll day trader. I had a look at your blog a couple of days ago and found it very interesting. I also think that this summer/autumn will be probably painful for the stocks but I am not sure that it will be the end of the great bull market yet. Thanks! And I think I know what you mean. I can see it playing out as a correction starting later this year into 2015, followed by a panicked shift in the Fed's rhetoric concerning QE or interest rate hikes. This could ultimately calm the markets again. |
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