Bitcoin Forum

I'd like to share this chart with you from my blog (some of you have already seen this)...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R9IpQoICYv0/U4Np9576iVI/AAAAAAAABhw/AXtWQ0YF6oU/s1600/may+26+qqq.png

I really think this chart is awesome.

What I've done is priced both Bitcoin and QQQ, a popular Nasdaq Index ETF, in terms of Gold (GC1!). This is so we can remove the goggles of inflation and gauge the real value of these price movements against a common denominator.

In doing so, we can see a direct correlation between the overall market (especially tech) and Bitcoin.

Consequently, this leads me to believe that analysis done on the broader markets can be used to predict bitcoin's price movements too. It makes sense. They're all affected by the same pool of capital.

The bottom line is, I think we're getting close to the end of a spectacular bull run for both equities and bitcoin.

Again, if investment in bitcoin is related to global capital investment (which the QQQ correlation attempts to prove), then this next chart is why I believe a large correction for the markets and bitcoin is impending (some of you have already seen this too)...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rAXp9X7LkD0/U30YQrVp9mI/AAAAAAAABhg/CKHqGcLO2EI/s1600/download+(6).png

This is a chart of the SP 500 equities index. As you can see, we are reaching the peak of a converging pennant. With very little room to move and decreasing volume as it narrows. For the last 5+ years, prices have consistently held within the boundaries of this area. However, that can't last.

A correction out of the pennant is set to occur by the end of this summer through fall. This is why I think it might be a good time to sell soon, if you're still holding.


Granted, this is speculation. That's why it's in this area. I know it's not the "to the moon" analysis everyone wants to see either, but it might be analysis worth considering.

If there's enough interest in this topic, I can keep it updated with new charts as we go along.

Good luck!

hmmm too much ReaDing ...my eyes hurty

HODL or TRADL ??

Same pools of capital? But there's no one investing in Bitcoin apart from believers, weirdos and ultra fringe speculators. Hardly any of the same capital has arrived yet. And I'll bet that a significant chunk of crypto holders have never put any money into gold or stocks.

If what you're saying is true, then the end result of the analysis is still true.

You need the larger pools of capital if Bitcoin is going to make new high's.

We shall see I guess. If I remember rightly there are some other countries outside that US place though.

Read the OP three times and still don't understand what is being said.

He's saying Bitcoin is finished.

Right, that's pretty much the only thing I could make out of that fog of bragging, dogecoin and incoherent comparisons without further justification ;D

TL;DR - Man, that was a lot of writing just to out yourself as a troll day trader who is shorting.  Getting nervous?

Of course. But global markets are interrelated and tend to react based off the trading which occurs in the US, so comparing Bitcoin and a US equities index makes sense in my view.

Not to mention, that Bitcoin-QQQ correlation speaks for itself, no?

Well, your comment was certainly worth reading too. :)

Please, share your analysis with us. We'd all enjoy a better perspective from a non-troll day trader.

My take is that the Bitcoin market is far too young, warped and piddly to compare it to anything else or make any predictions yet.

If it was a few decades old and spread wherever it will eventually spread then I'd feel more confident doing that.

Welcome shorter #19234. Your analysis #12934 will be scrutinized shortly.
Is this the end of bitcoin you ask?

NO.

Now take a number and go sit over there with fonzie, igorr, and DanV.

I opened a CoinBase account before I opened an E-Trade account.   ::)

That's why I'm comparing it to other young markets. The QQQ is an ETF derived from the NASDAQ composite index, which is a good indication of investment in the tech sector.

Bitcoin correlates well to the QQQ's movements.

Your methodology is stupid.

dont forget MatTheBearCat and our long lost departed brother

Cosmofly who was last report boarding a malaysian airlines flight MH370

Cosmo why you fly ????

We need your Intelect and insight as for some reason there is this bullish trend & maybe your retarded rain man friend can help me understand why me lose much money shorting ???

Thanks! And I think I know what you mean.

I can see it playing out as a correction starting later this year into 2015, followed by a panicked shift in the Fed's rhetoric concerning QE or interest rate hikes. This could ultimately calm the markets again.

Your argument is comprehensive.

Very interesting analysis. I have never looked at things from such a perspective, and I must say, this intrigues me. You won't be popular expressing any bearish views on this forum, but I'm sure you knew that. Cheers!

You either drink the Kool-Aid and sing from the hymn sheet here, or you get heckled!

Interesting opening post!

Thanks! Comments like yours are the reason I posted it :)

Figured there had to be a few of you out there!

Ok let me have a go with some crypto 101 stuff

In a nutshell why is this current breakout going to fail ???

Considering we are follow our bubbling trend num# 3 based upon previous history

(blah blah blah histrory is no predictor of the future but
a) what are support & resistance ?
b) this biatch seems to like to do the same thing time again
c) humans follow the same patters or a leopard never changes it spots ie the primordal/lizard "AMYDALA" part of the GREED/FEAR response has not changed for millions of years so are we not destined to follow the same responses to basic human emotions ?
d) repeatition in chaos has been proven on both macro & micro lvls ..i.e fractals
)

We have a great deal of infrastrutural dev over the last 8 months ..IRS GOX gone and many many more

So with all this can you explain what is the key driver to now short this market @ 580 over the next 4 weeks ??

Thanks dude! Believe it or not, I'm quite glad people disagree with me. I'd like to think I could be wrong on this, just for the sake of Bitcoin doing well.

But the heckling, yeah it just takes away from a good discussion... Gavin said it best, "I really want someone to solve the Internet troll problem. (http://www.coindesk.com/gavin-andresen-rising-transaction-fees-price-poor-bitcoin/)"

What are your feelings about the oft-parroted 'bitcoin is not a stock' phrase?

I know you were directing this at someone else, but my thought is that it doesn't matter in the context of markets in that the psychology of investors and traders is comparable to that of other markets. And as the first poster pointed out, it's the same pool of capital. "No money no honey" and all.  :P

So you just like dimissing the low lying fruit arguments and not actually DISCUSS anything

Another bear... get a cheap hotel room  and yourself igorr & matthebearcat,Danv,Terra and others can wank each over off while moaning the words "BITCOIN IS DOOMED"

I wouldnae class it as overt and irrational doom mongering. More someone highlighting a potentially interesting pattern that they've picked up on. I'll be sitting back and watching things pan out however they feel like panning out regardless.

LOL, DanV isn't even a poster on this forum and was calling for a big rally after the next low. Sounds like you don't read people's charts and arguments too thoroughly before you go on a tirade against them for being bearish on the market.

I agree.

I don t even see why you want to corrolate equities with bitcoin.

That apart, Equities have been bullish for the big majority of bitcoin's life. So predicting the end of the bull run in equities is not hard. Actually everybody and his mother is currently shorting equities.
The correlation with the equity market is coincidence. They happen to be both bullish. No, equity correction during bitcoin correction. Look at the graph they are very different market.

Bitcoin is a currency. We are in the early phase of adoption. It will be seen as a protection against crisis and government. A bit like gold. ( China and cyprus )

Actually i m bullish on bitcoin because of the hand of this non sense market equity.
The correlation with the equity market is coincidence. They happen to be both bullish. No, equity correction during bitcoin correction. Look at the graph they are very different market.

You seem to repeat making mistake.

HODL the line. This wild roller coaster is just beginning. and short equities by the way. Currently at ATH.

I wouldn't short, that's a bit much. I would sell over the next few months. That's just me.

I'm glad you brought up the fact that this looks very similar to past all-time-high price cycles. Allow for a different perspective, that it also looks very similar to the upward price movements of the NASDAQ.

The argument here that I think this time is different than the last few cycles -- that it won't move the same way this time around.

This is based off the last 5 years, where equities have gone up, Bitcoin has gone up, and there hasn't been any difference in policy at the Federal Reserve... most markets in the past 5 years have done great.

That is, until last December.

Starting in December of last year the Fed began reducing the Quantitative Easing program at about $10 billion a month, with the expectation that the program will end by September or October 2014 and rate hikes will begin in June of 2015.

Immediately, this change in policy began to negatively affect high-risk investments such as Twitter, Biotech, 3D printing, Groupon, etc... smart money understood the party was over and began the long process of moving into safer assets, beginning with the riskiest assets in their books.

As the program unwinds further, the growth we've had in the broader markets will begin to slow, and ultimately turn negative over the next year. All of which is occurring right on schedule, according to that SP 500 convergence chart.

Sure thing boss. We hit 1k with less than 0.1% of the global popultion. If even 10% of the world eventually uses it the price will be 100 times higher. If that doesn't happen then bitcoin will never amount to anything meaningful. Pick your horse and hold on.

Agreed. I'm not suggesting bitcoin will stay below its all-time-high forever. I do however believe it won't happen this year, and that it will most likely head lower before going higher.   :)

but why? because of the supposed correlation of equities and bitcoin? since december, bitcoin was in a downtrend and equities make a new ATH. There is no correlation, beside being in long term bullish trend.

Not all equity markets have made new high's. In fact, a lot of speculative stocks have been crushed between December and now.

Just to comment on this because I see this attitude often -- just because someone finds a correlation doesn't mean they wanted to. I see the same attitude towards bears on this forum, like all of them just want the market to go down.

You think they don't? I want the market to go down so I can get more coins for cheap, and I'm a bull.

Actually incorrect dufus he was calling for sub 300 pricing as of 1 week ago

Or to explain clearly he was very bearish until proven wrong ...

EDIT : Thanks Arggh...Even as of 2 days ago still spewing the Bitcoin is doomed Crap that the bears LOVE so much...YAWN

YipYip is correct.

DanV, Mr. Institutional Investor Doofus with his ABC rules can't get his head out of his ass fast enough to see the rocket taking off.

I understand. You may try to corrolate equities with moon cycle, but why does somebody want to do that?

and for the correlation, obviously there is none. 90% of the time BTC is in a down trend and 90% of the time Equities are on a uptrend.
That s not the first time i read that they corrolate. People love to see what they WANT to see. I guess that is my point.

So... today we have the Nasdaq smashing to new highs and bitcoin getting a dip, where's the correlation now?

correlation is not causation
you need more proofs

I certainly can't say that their intraday movements are exactly the same, but the broader correlation does suggest that ultimately they will follow the same trend. Though, I think it's interesting that certain times exist when their intraday movements are damn near exact.

That being said, the short term analysis suggests that bitcoin is hitting a strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average, which could be limiting its upward momentum:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9oR1dnI/

According to the SP 500, I think we could have a few more months of positive movement in both markets before the big correction occurs, or at least a sideways direction. Thus, the SP 500, NASDAQ, and even Bitcoin could move up a bit more from here. Though, the start of the serious correction is near, so I can't feel confident saying Bitcoin will make new all-time-high's this year.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3PNQMqb5/

Again, this is based off a 5-year upward trend converging within the next few months.

Bitcoin is practically the same age as this bull market.

We don't know for a fact what will happen to Bitcoin when the market's undergo a serious correction, but based off the market activity for both Bitcoin and equities in July-Decemeber 2011... the correlation indicates a longer negative trend than we're used to.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1308&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=1&s=2011-05-27&e=2011-12-28&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=WMA&m1=365&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UX1l67Jg/

That's already a lot more nuanced, thank you.

Thank you for your interest! :)

My thought since the Willy analysis came out is how could any TA be appropriate or applicable after a huge, price-influencing chunk of trading was found to essentially be fraudulent? TA is based on human trading tendencies and risk appetites, so when $100M+ gets pumped into the market without risk, doesnt that sort of break the foundation that TA is supposed to rely on?

7% of one exchange which at the time only accounted for 15% of market share.

Meh.

I dont think market share is the pertinent fact, though. I think its that for a majority of the bubble period(s), mtgox was the price reference and trend setter. I believe the willy report looks into that a bit.

as blitz once put it, and i am paraphrasing, price follows price. even if there was un-backed ("fraudulent") price action, the market continued to react and progress accordingly. many months or years later, i don't think there is any going back. but it is a very interesting conundrum.

just to be clear, because i watch his charts. he was calling for "a big rally after the next low" to ~1000 after a low ~300. yeah we didn't get the low in. but you guys are totally miscategorizing.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fYhqvd8H/

If we all hold hands and believe in DA MOON, the price will act accordingly. Execute all naysayers.

When I first came to this forum, I used to get all involved with the copious hoards of retards that hang around here also.

But then I learned, that even paying any attention to anything that the majority here have to say, let alone getting embroiled in big debates with the Bitcoin Nutter, cost me money. It mal-affected my mindset, resulting in me suffering from a polarisation of opinion/outlook that would never have affected me had I not got myself involved with the Bitcoin Nutter.

These days, I make copious use of the ignore button in order to spare myself the worst of dribbling retards on this site.

Many also have me on ignore. They say that I am a troll and recommend that one doesn't feed the Troll!

I say, "DON'T FEED THE BITCOIN NUTTER!" All he wants is Kool-Aid and if you offer him anything else at all, he will attack you.

Gimmelfarb and MatTheCat are two fellas so cool i dont even wanna troll em for im too busy with everyone elses mother.

So it must really infuriate you that the average "bitcoin nutter" has made more in % from hodling over the last week than you made from your narcissistic TA?  Your problem is not that you don't have any TA skills, your problem is that you think you could never be wrong.

Big words and long drawn out eloquent paragraphs don't always mean a better argument just btw.

LOL

Sure they have.

JimboToronto, cost Average ~ $900
Ibian,            cost Average ~ $800
segeln,          cost Average ~ $750

When Bitcoin is going up, the average Bitcoin Nutter will always outperform me by a country phucking mile, as the Bitcoin Nutter will be holding from the very onset of the break-out right to the very top of the market. It is when the price action goes into reverse that the Bitcoin Nutter tends not to do so well!

you forgot one more
veronica, cost average $984
 ;D

add RadovanH. who claimed to have bought @900 few months back on another website

Is there a certain price point where you would give up on trashing people for having a different investment strategy than you?
4k? 
I guess your rant a few days ago about if others are ever correct, it means it was pure luck means no.

We are not talking about trashing people with 'other investment' strategies here.

The Bitcoin Nutter doesn't have an investment strategy.

The Bitcoin Nutter has hype, hope, and denial.....

......and nothing else.

Just ran the numbers, my average buyin is about $773. This includes a few laptops specifically for bitcoin use, minor transportation costs and a parking ticket.

This is satisfactory. If bitcoin reaches even a fraction of its potential then I already have enough to last a lifetime. Just need a little patience.

And for the record mat, you stopped being amusing long ago. Temporarily unignoring you because why the hell not. Thing is, the only one taking part in your little pissing contest is you. If the price goes to 100k, I will be busy living a better life and it doesn't matter. It it collapses, things will continue as usual and it doesn't matter.

I agree with you can dollar cost average it to a lower rate since the present rate is lower than the current rate
That said it's not a bad entry point for the potential it has just need to be patient :)

i have no problem with position investing (e.g. "I will buy anything below $800 because we are going to $5k+) ... but people like JimboToronto constantly talk shit about bears no matter what price level. so while position investing is fine, clearly the other side of the coin here is that some of these position investors have zero respect for swing traders. naturally, there will be some hostility to those that show hostility.

I second that tbh.

Not entirely fair to talk about 'Bitcoin Nutters' and then group Ibian and Segeln in with them....I just happen to know those guys purported buy-in price.

When I speak of Bitcoin Nutter, I am really talking about complete fucking mongols such as JimboToronto....and many countless dozens of others. Indeed, the majority of posters on this forum.....or it seems that way anyhow.

The Bitcoin FUDster doesn't want to invest in Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin FUDster's "investment strategy" is betting that bitcoin is a scam, phad, trival.

The Bitcoin FUDster is chicken shit, unimaginative, and obviously wrong.

I bet on a Bitcoin Nutter over a Bitcoin FUDster anyday of the week.

What I really dont understand that with so much hate & negativity is why do they still hang around like an old fart in a poorly ventilated room

Its like bitcoin has hurt them in some way and they want revenge .....I would like to quietly point out that bitcoin is a technology and not your abusive farther/mother

It's simple, they're daytraders, shorters... basically people who have something to gain from spreading FUD and driving prices down.

It's part of their strategy, and no matter how scummy or counterproductive it is to the rest of us, they will continue because they have something to gain from it.

well, i can see why someone who "missed the boat" on bitcoin might feel bitter and would want to cope by putting bitcoiners down, so to speak. but i also don't think all of those that you guys might label "FUDsters" fit in that category.

Everybody can get into this market ESPECIALLY NOW !!!  or am i being a nuter again ???

Even for the last 2 weeks I am up a low 5 digit sum from simply HODL

Its really not rocket science ...To make a $100 trading penny stocks is hard hard work ... bitcoin is investment for the mass's :D

sure, HODL is great for the last 2 weeks in an up trend. how is HODL over the past 5 months? i have no problem with HOLDers, but it ain't for everybody. :)

Yeah, let me just remind everyone again of what brilliant sage TA advice that MatTheCat serves up.  Also notice that the first 2 posts were as recent as May:

I'd rather have an investment strategy of a bitcoin nutter, rather than be blatantly wrong on 90% of my predictions like you.  Your track record is terrible, yet you try to find a way to make it seem like you knew what was going to happen all along.

Go sit on your paws mat weak hands. The only people listening to your advice are the ones losing money.

Making the a prediction and saying it 10 times, doesn't count as 10 predictions u fucking halfwit.

How about you go look at my last 'prediction', Bitcoin at $585, just before the top. What did I say, and what happened?

My $200 range Bitcoin prediction will happen, just not yet. We are now undeniably in Wave B, Bitcoin to $700 range at least.

Q) But will any of you fuckwits know when to cash in when the retracement has ran its course?

A) NO! :D

Hit 1000$!!!

;^)

Ok, just continue on through life never admitting you were wrong.

I am wrong often.

I try and pay attention to the errors I make and what caused them in order that I don't repeat them. That is something that I do whereas many here don't.

If you can't successfully trade, and most people can't, you have to find alternatives. On the other hand, and maybe I'm just seeing things, but it looks like most daytraders make shitty holders.

Yes, you are.  And you are a fkn idiot clown.  Quit trying so hard to convince people here that you have an inkling of a clue as to what you are doing.

I have the MatTheFuckStickCat on ignore (makes life a lot more pleasant)

The definition of a REAL trader is that you make many many mistakes ....as long as the +'s outweigh the -'s

An asshat of a trader is somebody who is trying to be RIGHT all the time buga lugs definatley falls into teh later

He will be a fake who just blah blah blah's all day long and never trades because his "I AM RIGHT STRATEGY" will send him broke faster than a big bag of coke at a day traders convetion in las Vegas :D

Geez, now I remember why I stopped hanging around the speculation forums. If you guys studied TA for as much time as you spent shitting on each other, you'd all be rich! (Or so broke that you'd need to sell your computers, so I wouldn't hear from you anyway  ;D)

In any case, /unsub

very good to remember the ridiculous MatTheCat posts

+1

Fuck me!

Torque is certainly out with a vendetta. Such a shame that despite the obviously vast amounts of time he has spent trawling my post history, he can only find that one call, which he has repeated about 20 fkn times as though I have been proven wrong 20 times.

But I shall draw attention to this one, not the very first $200 range call that I made, but the 2nd or 3rd time I made it.



That post was made on March 27th 2014. I made the $200 range call earlier than that as well.

On March 27th 2014, Bitcoin was $590. On April 11th, Bitcoin went to $338. Within $39 of my target range after a $250 dollar down move.

....and since I have stopped shorting, I hope I am wrong, but in my view, we are still on the Primary corrective Wave 4, but only on the Wave B counter trend up. I hope I am wrong, as these days I don't make money if Bitcoin goes down, only if it goes up, but I suspect that over the course of a few months, I shall be proven right. Quote that for truth.


Are you quoting the fucktard Torque, only in order that I am sure to read his posts which I would otherwise be blissfully unaware off? Well, no reason not to have you on ignore as well. Not like much smart, helpful, or insightful comes from you either.....

......seeya at yer $750 break even point, ya sucker......maybe......just cos I project $300 moves in a direction doesn't mean that they are going to come to fruition does it, I mean, I might $50 out!

How many shots will you take before you give up?

by the way: I'm short the S&P too and hurting!

It would have been nice if it topped out at 1929.  ;D

Hahaha 1929 would have been great. Bernanke/yellen would have hated that :-P

May 19th:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=611268.msg6806085#msg6806085 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=611268.msg6806085#msg6806085)

May 26th:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=626253.msg6956588#msg6956588 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=626253.msg6956588#msg6956588)

Counts as 2 shots in my book. Sorry but I can't be bothered to go through the rest of your post history.

edit: together with your post of today that makes a grand total of 3 shots now

I too see a massive problem coming for regular stocks, more based on the fact that the fundamental structure of the market is a powder keg of fail set to explode:

High Frequency Trading: Machines dictate 70% of all stock trades, which happen millions of times every second. Algorithms actively screw with the market and other algorithms, now interacting in ways that are now unpredictable and not understood, case in point, the flash crash of 2010-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I - it is still debated to this day why this happened.

These computer trading systems only came into wide use after the last big market crash in 2007/8, which makes it now more perilous than ever as human beings are no longer in control.

Imagine what happens if this same kind of freak occurrence suddenly causes trillions of dollars to vanish in seconds on a wide scale? It sounds insane, because it is, but in theory we could see the entire monetary system could collapse in minutes as the house of cards falls flat due to algorithms going full herd mode downward. If it causes the derivatives market to collapse, which it would most likely in a chain reaction, there is literally not enough money on this planet to bail it out. If that much money was simply created to fill the void like the US did with the bank bailouts of 2008, the Dollar would be rendered into toilet paper. Every market, every currency, in every industrialized country, would fail simultaneously. Every bank and government on the planet would go instantly bankrupt. It would be the mother of all bubble bursts.

Add to this the Federal Reserve's continuous money creation that is just feeding the S&P mega-bubble, we have a serious problem coming up soon, which very well could be later this summer. Something has to give.

From this I do wonder, when traders start seeing their entire stock portfolio vanish, where will they run? If there are no safe exits anywhere in the stock market, it seems that Bitcoin or other coins would be the only things left not attached to the fiat money system to bail out into, much like we saw in Cyprus with bank confiscations (which absolutely will happen in a currency crisis at wide scale). Could we see a major run on Bitcoin during a stock market collapse? Maybe. Time will tell, but I think its a possible scenario. At some point in this Bitcoin would reach a breakaway point from fiat trade entirely, as there would be no more fiat money worth a damn.

Regardless of how or why a crash occurs, it will be an absolute and astounding blood bath. Exciting time to be alive though  8)
 

The May 19th post was about Bitcoin, not the S&P, and it didn't call a top -- it also wasn't serious analysis. That whole thread was a joke.

And your May 26th link references this exact thread, which again didn't call a top. I did say the SP500 top was coming soon, though.

You should go a bit further back in my history and discover the wealth of good calls (most of my history is on my blog or twitter), but let's just do this to make your day easier: consider this my shot. If I'm wrong, I won't post on this thread again.

Oh, and please reply with your call so I can belittle it too.

 :P

80% long

I HODL the major portion and play with a small part. That part has gone up several times, so even if end up stuck one side or another, though I quickly cut my loss if I can see its definitely moving one way, I have made a good gain.