Stock trader joining bitcoin. Targets and projections.

[ibankbitcoins]

Hey bitcoiners:

I came from reddit btc market. I found out about this forum from there!. I traded stocks and futures for about 6 years and have recently gotten a huge interest in BTC. I have a bitcoin blog that focuses on chart patterns and statistics. This is my first post!! I will unveil more patterns and TA in coming posts. Don't want to overwhelm u guys.

Here are my targets, 610 usd/btc and 700. Look at the chart below:

http://ibankbitcoins.com/sites/default/files/field/image/5-26-2014-chart.jpg

I say 610 dollars because there is a lot of overhead resistance at this level. In addition, there is a confluence point with the measured move chart pattern. For our 2nd target, 700 dollar is the top end of the resistance and hence is a good indication of where we might stop in the short term.

If you are interested in my analysis. You can visit my bitcoin technical analysis blog.

Please let me know what you guys want to see and I will do a post in the future about it.

fellow bitcoiner.

[elianite]

whats your time frame on these targets?

[blatchcorn]

Where do you see the price going by the end of this year?

[healthandwealth]

Thanks for the analysis.  The next few weeks will be telling.

[ranlo]

Hey bitcoiners:

I came from reddit btc market. I found out about this forum from there!. I traded stocks and futures for about 6 years and have recently gotten a huge interest in BTC. I 've recently created a blog with a focus on chart patterns and statistics. This is my first post!! I will unveil more patterns and TA in coming posts. Don't want to overwhelm u guys.

Here are my targets, 610 usd/btc and 700. Look at the chart below:



I say 610 dollars because there is a lot of overhead resistance at this level. In addition, there is a confluence point with the measured move chart pattern. For our 2nd target, 700 dollar is the top end of the resistance and hence is a good indication of where we might stop in the short term.

If you are interested in my analysis. You can visit my bitcoin technical analysis blog.

Please let me know what you guys want to see and I will do a post in the future about it.

fellow bitcoiner.

Can you explain why 610 and not 600 though? Wouldn't the 100 mark (in this case 600) be more of a mental blocker?

[ibankbitcoins]

Hey bitcoiners:

I came from reddit btc market. I found out about this forum from there!. I traded stocks and futures for about 6 years and have recently gotten a huge interest in BTC. I 've recently created a blog with a focus on chart patterns and statistics. This is my first post!! I will unveil more patterns and TA in coming posts. Don't want to overwhelm u guys.

Here are my targets, 610 usd/btc and 700. Look at the chart below:

http://ibankbitcoins.com/sites/default/files/field/image/5-26-2014-chart.jpg

I say 610 dollars because there is a lot of overhead resistance at this level. In addition, there is a confluence point with the measured move chart pattern. For our 2nd target, 700 dollar is the top end of the resistance and hence is a good indication of where we might stop in the short term.

If you are interested in my analysis. You can visit my bitcoin technical analysis blog.

Please let me know what you guys want to see and I will do a post in the future about it.

fellow bitcoiner.

Can you explain why 610 and not 600 though? Wouldn't the 100 mark (in this case 600) be more of a mental blocker?

Wow, lots of questions, I will try to answer them the best I can. You can clearly see that prior supports are at 610 dollars, now its resistance at 610. In addition, my measured move also is around 615-610 area. So that is it. What you say is true though, round numbers are mental blockers, but they are very short term.

[ranlo]

Hey bitcoiners:

I came from reddit btc market. I found out about this forum from there!. I traded stocks and futures for about 6 years and have recently gotten a huge interest in BTC. I 've recently created a blog with a focus on chart patterns and statistics. This is my first post!! I will unveil more patterns and TA in coming posts. Don't want to overwhelm u guys.

Here are my targets, 610 usd/btc and 700. Look at the chart below:



I say 610 dollars because there is a lot of overhead resistance at this level. In addition, there is a confluence point with the measured move chart pattern. For our 2nd target, 700 dollar is the top end of the resistance and hence is a good indication of where we might stop in the short term.

If you are interested in my analysis. You can visit my bitcoin technical analysis blog.

Please let me know what you guys want to see and I will do a post in the future about it.

fellow bitcoiner.

Can you explain why 610 and not 600 though? Wouldn't the 100 mark (in this case 600) be more of a mental blocker?

Wow, lots of questions, I will try to answer them the best I can. You can clearly see that prior supports are at 610 dollars, now its resistance at 610. In addition, my measured move also is around 615-610 area. So that is it. What you say is true though, round numbers are mental blockers, but they are very short term.

So what you're basically saying is that 600 and 700 will likely pose some resistance (short-term) and that 610 and 710 will be the medium-term resistances that need to be broken through?

[ibankbitcoins]

accurate, breaking above 610 will take some time. Or maybe bitcoin will just breeze through with with the strength from a few days ago.

[ranlo]

accurate, breaking above 610 will take some time. Or maybe bitcoin will just breeze through with with the strength from a few days ago.

I'm definitely going to follow this closer to see how your predictions end up turning out. For anyone else reading, keep in mind that resistance can be broken through with no problems if there's enough money flowing in.

[segeln]

Hey bitcoiners:
 This is my first post!! I will unveil more patterns and TA in coming posts. Don't want to overwhelm u guys.
If you are interested in my analysis. You can visit my bitcoin technical analysis blog.
Please let me know what you guys want to see and I will do a post in the future about it.
fellow bitcoiner.

you are welcome
Edit: "concepts explained" in your blog is very good

[zby]

And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

[ibankbitcoins]

And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

Can you elaborate on that? or a chart to show me?

[zby]

And what do you think about the break neck short term up trend being now broken?

Can you elaborate on that? or a chart to show me?

[ibankbitcoins]

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

[BitchicksHusband]

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this:  Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

[oda.krell]

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this:  Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

[BTCtrader71]

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this:  Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise.


EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? 

[ranlo]

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this:  Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise.


EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? 

The issue is thinking that this trend is going to continue at the same rate, which just isn't sustainable. There's no telling how long it will last, but it won't be indefinite.

[BTCtrader71]

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this:  Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise.


EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? 

The issue is thinking that this trend is going to continue at the same rate, which just isn't sustainable. There's no telling how long it will last, but it won't be indefinite.

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

[ranlo]

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

I think we're going to have a sharp rise once big news comes out (say the eBay/PP thing) and that may create its own curve separate from what we've been dealing with. There are a lot of positive things in the works right now. I just think we may hit our short-term cap shorter than we think (ie. hitting 5k within a year and then being stuck there for a few years).