satoshi is either dead or in prison

[teukon]

I am not at all concerned about Satoshi becoming some boogie man and suddenly crashing bit coin. As with any market it would recover and find value at the place price meets demand.

Exactly.

Any sane Bitcoin user would love Satoshi to crash the price, each time the coins become owned by more and more people.

Fear of the Satoshi crash is irrational. The only fear is large holders that control both the buy and sell sides manipulating the price to increase their stash. Because Satoshi is already so rich he doesn't need to do this and thus we have nothing to fear.

Interesting, you'd love satoshi to crash the price but fear a large holder manipulating the price profitably?  I'd love a large holder to manipulate the price profitably but would be less than happy to see satoshi crash the price (unprofitable).  The reason?  Profits are good!

Ron-Popeil is spot on though in noting that, in the event of a satoshi-crash, the various day-traders and speculators in the market would quickly set to work discovering the new fair price.  Those that work most efficiently and that have large fiat reserves at the ready for such a crisis will be the most richly rewarded.  This is precisely why good day-traders are a boon to humanity and another example of the profit motive benefitting everyone.

[Specialkey]

Neither mate

He is Uncle Sam

+1 

[jc01480]

How many "reforms" have been non-volatile?

[Lightweight]

both are highly unlikely

[Cryptopher]

Satoshi has done what they set out to do and release Bitcoin to the world, and see it flourish. That is all. Now they just wish to be left alone.

[SomethingElse]

I know that we all think that Bitcoin is safe and Satoshi won't hurt us.  But the fact is, bitcoin is suppose to be a trustless tech, but actually anybody that owns bitcoin has HUGE trust in Satoshi.  People often buy bitcoin because they think that fiat is stupid because the government can just print more and devalue the existing fiat.  But Satoshi owning 10% of bitcoin could dump and easily sell bitcoin to every buy wall on every exchange crashing the price to $0.01 on every exchange and hold it there if he wanted. There wouldn't be anything any of us could do. 

Stuff and nonsense.

Yes, _if_ Satoshi liquidated his entire stash, it would likely burn through every buy order on every market. So what? A bunch of people get a major deal on a bunch of coins as the bid/ask drops to a silly value.

Then once the liquidation is complete (in hours if not seconds), the price jumps back up to maybe half that of before the event. And the historical price trend resumes its incessant upward creep in value.

The only lasting effects are that: the price appreciation over time gets set back by a month or seven, and; Satoshi's one-time sword of Damocles is forever rendered powerless.

I've already factored such an event into my buying. Have you?

<mutter>Requires trust, my ass.</mutter>

I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.  Or maybe I don't, but one of us is really wrong.  But I calculated the "buy walls"  of all the exchanges together.  That was including the bots and the fake numbers out of China and we get 30,000,000 USD on a good day.  Bitcoin right now is a 600 USD.  That means he would have to burn through 50,000 coins!  To crash the entire market down to 1 penny.  That would be a pretty impressive "one-time sword of Damocles".  I wonder how much he would have left?  Oh yeah, 950,000 more left.  Him crashing the market wouldn't even but a dent in his wallet.  He wouldn't even know those coins were gone.  He would though be happy with 30,000.000 USD he made though.  And then... if bitcoin decided to rise up again. IIIIIIFFFFF somebody was stupid enough to buy again.  He could let the price rise up to a dollar or two and smash it down again for a fraction of what it cost him to smash it down the first time.  He could do this over and over again. 

Again.  I don't think he will.  But just the fact that this could happens and the fact that he is so shady and mysterious, nobody really knows.  Everyone that is buying bitcoin is taking a big gamble and putting huge trust in Satoshi that he won't walk with the money.  I seriously doubt he will do this, but the fact remains there are a dozen scenarios where it doesn't matter.  What if his keys are hacked?  What if Satoshi is the US government?  What if his children inherit the bitcoins and want to cash out?  What if the US government seizes bitcoin like they did the SilkRoad? 

Investing in bitcoin = having trust in satashi with all you bitcoin

[haploid23]

I'm pretty sure Theymos can come close to finding out a lot about Satoshi. Back in the early days, there were many PM's exchanged between satoshi and Gavin Andresen on this very forum. All Theymos has to do is check logs and IP's of Satoshi's account.

[SomethingElse]

Satoshi being a mysteriously founder is okay.  People can live with that.  But Satoshi owning 10% is the elephant in the room that bitcoin fanatics are refusing to acknowledge or accept.  That their "trustless" tech actually requires a huge amount of trust in him.  

I happily acknowledge that satoshi could disrupt the market significantly and for a prolonged period.  However, he's not alone in this.

Bill Gates, for example, could easily cause more disruption if he dedicated his net worth to the cause.  He could buy bitcoins with seemingly no limit in sight and then crash the market at a moment of his choosing.  He could do this repeatedly, crashing at different times with different amounts.  Ultimately, he'd go broke, but we'd have chaos for quite some time.

If this possibility worries you, you really ought to get out of bitcoins now and into a much deeper and less volatile asset.

This I think is another reason why every week a new "Satoshi" thread pops up talking about him.  Some say, "let him be anonymous".  Well..... That doesn't work.  I don't want a person that has control over ALL my money being anonymous.  We all instinctively know with that much coin, his leverage is ridiculous.  And yes, he is still alive and on a computer.  He sent out a message recently.  Anything could happen.

What if satoshi revealed himself.  Would you be happier then?  What if two years later, he decided to crash the market.  Would it really make any difference that you could put a face to the act?

I also think that he is a good guy.  That he built bitcoin because he believed in it and he won't crash it.  But.... there is the problem.  If he really believes in having the ideal form of money "the bitcoin in the sky" then he knows that him having 10% is a big problem.  So why would a guy create a perfect money and then also have a flaw created in it.  The fact of the matter is, we just don't know.

There is a night/day difference between buying 10% and selling 10% of bitcoin.  To sell, means the price would crash.  To buy, means the price would shoot up.  I am not sure how high the price would go up if somebody tried to buy 10%, even if somebody could, but it would be well over 100,000 USD per coin. 

Also, we know Bill Gates and we know Warren Buffet.  We know their history, we know their motives, and we can understand their mind and fairly accurately predict what they might do.  Even if they tried to buy 1%, and I think it would be a huge deal, it would be well documented, and would be possible, but wouldn't go unnoticed.  The Winklevii actually do own 1% and it cost them a lot and that was when bitcoin was a joke to the world and was dirt cheap.  But it is okay that Winklevii own it, because we know very well who they are.  And it would be okay if Buffet or Gates bought because we know them and can understand them. 

We don't know Satoshi.  We don't know his/her/they real long term plan.  We don't know for sure why bitcoin was created.  It would be very easy for Satoshi to cash out. 

[SomethingElse]

If satoshi having 10% is a big problem then I imagine that Warren Buffet having 10% would also be a big problem.  Could you design a cryptocurrency as decentralised as Bitcoin which made it practically impossible for Warren Buffet, dedicating all of his resources, to acquire 10%?  I couldn't.

I think this is an excellent point.  So far I haven't seen anything better than bitcoin and that is why I put a lot of money in it.  Actually bitcoin is by far my biggest investment.  I believe in it that much.  I also don't know a better system to keep a Buffet from owning 10%.  I like bitcoin and I think it is great.  I also want to be honest and real too, it is not perfect.  The Satoshi situation requires huge trust in Satoshi, and this is ironic given it is a "trustless" system. 

[SomethingElse]

I'm pretty sure Theymos can come close to finding out a lot about Satoshi. Back in the early days, there were many PM's exchanged between satoshi and Gavin Andresen on this very forum. All Theymos has to do is check logs and IP's of Satoshi's account.

If I were Theymos, I would have already done that. Hahahaha. 

I just hope it was just only Theymos and not the NSA or hackers looking to compromise Satoshi.  Think with heartbleed out easy it would have been to compromise Theymos. 

[bryant.coleman]

Well, lets examine the possibilities in case Satoshi's coins are lost for ever (either Satoshi is dead, or he has lost the private keys). That means that out of the 13 million Bitcoins currently in circulation, some 8% are taken out. It will boost the value of the remaining 12 million Bitcoins.

[drawingthesun]

Well, lets examine the possibilities in case Satoshi's coins are lost for ever (either Satoshi is dead, or he has lost the private keys). That means that out of the 13 million Bitcoins currently in circulation, some 8% are taken out. It will boost the value of the remaining 12 million Bitcoins.

I think that some 3 million "lost" coins, including "Satoshi's" are already priced into the current market rate.

[Hughra]

or both. as there is no big player in the bitcoin world that didn't turn out to be a criminal, it's more likely that he's still alive. what do you think was satoshi's crime he went to prison for?

that fool chillen in Jamaica with millions..

[jbreher]

I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.  Or maybe I don't, but one of us is really wrong.  But I calculated the "buy walls"  of all the exchanges together.  That was including the bots and the fake numbers out of China and we get 30,000,000 USD on a good day.  Bitcoin right now is a 600 USD.  That means he would have to burn through 50,000 coins!  To crash the entire market down to 1 penny.  

Again, so what? If the price hits a penny, I have thousands of USD sidelined that I would -- with all due alacrity -- convert to bitcoin on very favorable terms. At a penny each, 930,000 bitcoins would only be $9,300. Unfortunately, however, I certainly don't think I'd have that buyer's market all to myself.

Again, the bloodbath would be over essentially instantaneously. And the price would shoot right back up to perhaps half the previous value. Then resume it's inevitable climb.

Just because funds aren't currently committed to buy orders does not mean they are not in play.

Incidentally, your calculation of $30M being only 50,000 BTC from a market price of $600 is an incorrect oversimplification. As the selling commenced, the price would drop, which would cause the number of bitcoins in $30M to be vastly higher than 50,000.

[CEG5952]

or both. as there is no big player in the bitcoin world that didn't turn out to be a criminal, it's more likely that he's still alive. what do you think was satoshi's crime he went to prison for?

LOL, what did he go to prison for? I don't think he's in prison. Didn't he come out and post that he was not Dorian Nakamoto, when that whole thing blew up? (I suppose his account could have been hacked)

[bryant.coleman]

I think that some 3 million "lost" coins, including "Satoshi's" are already priced into the current market rate.

Could you give me the source for this 3 million figure?

Most of the sources here talk about 6-7%, that is somewhere around the 1 million mark.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7253.0

[drawingthesun]

I think that some 3 million "lost" coins, including "Satoshi's" are already priced into the current market rate.

Could you give me the source for this 3 million figure?

Most of the sources here talk about 6-7%, that is somewhere around the 1 million mark.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7253.0

Yeah I think you're right.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

[bryant.coleman]

Yeah I think you're right.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Well.. rpietila is giving a lower estimate at 4% of all the coins in circulation (that is around BTC500,000). IMO, I think he grossly under-estimated the numbers, but still think that it won't be as high as 3 million.

[illymoka]

I can't understand why so many people on this forum talk bad on Satoshi or even hate him? He created and provided us the revolutionary thing, didn't he?

[SomethingElse]

I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.  Or maybe I don't, but one of us is really wrong.  But I calculated the "buy walls"  of all the exchanges together.  That was including the bots and the fake numbers out of China and we get 30,000,000 USD on a good day.  Bitcoin right now is a 600 USD.  That means he would have to burn through 50,000 coins!  To crash the entire market down to 1 penny.  

Again, so what? If the price hits a penny, I have thousands of USD sidelined that I would -- with all due alacrity -- convert to bitcoin on very favorable terms. At a penny each, 930,000 bitcoins would only be $9,300. Unfortunately, however, I certainly don't think I'd have that buyer's market all to myself.

Again, the bloodbath would be over essentially instantaneously. And the price would shoot right back up to perhaps half the previous value. Then resume it's inevitable climb.

Just because funds aren't currently committed to buy orders does not mean they are not in play.

Incidentally, your calculation of $30M being only 50,000 BTC from a market price of $600 is an incorrect oversimplification. As the selling commenced, the price would drop, which would cause the number of bitcoins in $30M to be vastly higher than 50,000.

Okay, good point.