The Weekend Dip Myth

[proudhon]

Time cycles come and go, and if they are correct too often, this is typically the time when it does not work any more.

I bet it works this weekend.

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[notme]

Time cycles come and go, and if they are correct too often, this is typically the time when it does not work any more.

I bet it works this weekend.

Someone just spent over $76k to disagree with you.

[proudhon]

Time cycles come and go, and if they are correct too often, this is typically the time when it does not work any more.

I bet it works this weekend.

Someone just spent over $76k to disagree with you.

People have made costlier mistakes.

[notme]

Time cycles come and go, and if they are correct too often, this is typically the time when it does not work any more.

I bet it works this weekend.

Someone just spent over $76k to disagree with you.

People have made costlier mistakes.

I'm not disagreeing with you.  It's likely just a long term investor who doesn't give a shit what happens this weekend.  In a year they should be sitting on a nice profit.  It's just the timing was ironic.  It was within minutes of your post.

[proudhon]

So, while we're all waiting around for something to happen...Anyone else have a few bitcoins for sale at ridiculous prices on MtGox or anywhere else just in case some crazy ass billionaire does something, eh, crazy?

[S3052]

Time cycles come and go, and if they are correct too often, this is typically the time when it does not work any more.

I bet it works this weekend.

Someone just spent over $76k to disagree with you.

People have made costlier mistakes.

I'm not disagreeing with you.  It's likely just a long term investor who doesn't give a shit what happens this weekend.  In a year they should be sitting on a nice profit.  It's just the timing was ironic.  It was within minutes of your post.

+1. I agree with you: Just one investor could easily break resistance at 5.15 - 5.20 $ with 100 k$ and then the market moves...
Just look at what happened in Dec 2010 / Jan 2011. I watched this live. There seemed to be big resistance but a big investor (I knew the guy) bought all coins just a little below 0.3 $ and then pushed it above that level.

[proudhon]

I bet we go under $5 again.

[Crypt_Current]

I bet we go under $5 again.

How much you putting up on that bet?

[proudhon]

I bet we go under $5 again.

How much you putting up on that bet?

Not telling.

[S3052]

no weekend dip this weekend

[Crypt_Current]

no weekend dip this weekend

Should I buy now?  I had put 90% in USD in anticipation of a dip...

[Stephen Gornick]

no weekend dip this weekend

Should I buy now?  I had put 90% in USD in anticipation of a dip...

Tough call.  The exchange rate is creeping up, so buying back now would cause like a 2.0 or 2.5% loss, including fees versus having stayed long.

At the same time, the Bitcoinica claims could start getting sent out.  That is the event that has the potential to send a bunch of bitcoins to the market.

Of course, looking at the blockchain volume, there are reasons there that might convince speculators to enter or add to their positions.

[Stephen Gornick]

So, the weekend dip indicator is NOT flashing green (previous 7 day high is above the prior 7-day period's high).  Thus the strategy doesn't sugget any specific course of action to take.

Last week the bitcoins sold at $5.055 when following the weekend dip strategy were never bought back.  Thus if there happens to be a selloff, cash is waiting at various levels under $5.

[Raize]

I think it is entirely possible that this weekend might be the one to put the weekend dip myth to rest forever. It doesn't look like Bitcoinica's MtGox bot has purchased enough coin to properly do the refunds. I'm just speculating of course, but I'm doing it in the right forum.

[Stephen Gornick]

I think it is entirely possible that this weekend might be the one to put the weekend dip myth to rest forever. It doesn't look like Bitcoinica's MtGox bot has purchased enough coin to properly do the refunds. I'm just speculating of course, but I'm doing it in the right forum.

Ya, there are a lot of funds held by shorts locked up.  So there may be a rally with the buying, and a selloff once the refunds start arriving.  Or not.  Who knows.

[Stephen Gornick]

Weekend dip indicator- off

Definitely not looking like a selloff  (which would be when the current week's high for the 7-day period is lower than the previous week's 7-day high).  So the indicator won't give any help this week with a signal, third one in a row that it didn't apply.



 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zczsg2012-05-12zeg2012-06-07ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Again, this doesn't mean there won't be a selloff, just that the indicator isn't flashing green.  When it does flash green, there's a greater than 50% chance, historically, of there being profit by selling Wednesday evening (west) / Thursday (east) and buying back over the weekend as the prices start to rise following a selloff.

Maybe next week.

[Kupsi]

Will we see a dip this weekend?

My guess is a dip down to $5.70, and back to > $6.00 on monday.

[adamstgBit]

Will we see a dip this weekend?

My guess is a dip down to $5.70, and back to > $6.00 on monday.

I wouldn't count on it

this a good time for miners to sell off coins, not a good time to try and back back lower.

[proudhon]

Will we see a dip this weekend?

My guess is a dip down to $5.70, and back to > $6.00 on monday.

I wouldn't count on it

this a good time for miners to sell off coins, not a good time to try and back back lower.

I'm going to get $500 or $600 ready for a dip.  I'll probably put bids in a ~$5.50, just in case, and work my way up as that looks less and less likely.  I don't mind chasing the price a bit, if I have to.

[humanitee]

Alright everyone, weigh in. Dip this weekend?