The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[DieJohnny]

Top trend line is too steep, we will peak in this next run up around 2400 sometime in October. Anything more or sooner is far too bullish.

[ajareselde]

until we see bitcoin trend going up again, there will be no new ATH.
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

[Taras]

Thought I'd give this a little bump. I really love the chart (as a historical view, not just as a prophecy) and have been following it for some time now.

[JulieFig]

Thought I'd give this a little bump. I really love the chart (as a historical view, not just as a prophecy) and have been following it for some time now.

Much appreciated .

Here is the updated chart... we still seem to be right on track.

[snowdropfore]

looks like we are going to peak at 3000~3500,not 5000~5500. disappointed

[liexel]

looks like we are going to peak at 3000~3500,not 5000~5500. disappointed

me too.

[Dafar]

looks like we are going to peak at 3000~3500,not 5000~5500. disappointed

No, that chart means absolutely nothing. If anything everyone is expecting a bubble with the 234 bubble cycle prophecy, so it will either be delayed or won't happen this year. If it is delayed I would expect the bubble to be bigger than expected. Who says it has to follow one line or another? It can create a new pattern this time. The trend is already starting to diverge and will probably continue to for the rest of this month.



OP, why can't your original chart behave like this?



The bubble at the ~$50 peak went above the pink rectangle... so this time we could be below the pink rectangle for all you know. There needs to be a tremendous amount of money going into bitcoin to cause significant rallys unlike before. There is no block halving this year. Not to mention no one was expecting the previous bubbles to happen, but this time almost everyone is expecting it to happen. I just don't see it playing out in a predictable way

[keithers]

People better start buying if we want to have any shot at keeping up with this potential chart.  IMO we have a good shot at possibly hitting $700 by June 30, I think $1000 is a major stretch.

There are too many people on the sidelines waiting to take profits off the table, and too many people that bought in too high that are waiting to recoup some of their losses. 

[zimmah]

Top trend line is too steep, we will peak in this next run up around 2400 sometime in October. Anything more or sooner is far too bullish.

I think it would be around August, October is more than 8 months from the previous peak, so that would be later than the usual time between peaks.

[Thylacine]

So much has changed in the bitcoin world since the last big couple of run-ups, I feel it's too much of a stretch to expect these stratospheric rises based on the past patterns. I'm long on bitcoin but there's not this much fresh money coming in purchasing coins right now. A lot of the investment seems to be in infrastructure and businesses, which is even better - but it's going to take time for those ventures to mature in my opinion. It's not going to be June/July 2014, but hey I'd love to see $5000 USD as much as the next person.

[jamesc760]

Not going to happen this summer, too many people/traders going on vacation. Wait until September. Will hit $4800 by end of Oct'2014.

[bitcoinbelieve]

the real answer is NOBODY knows

[kibblesnbits]

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247

Here's a chance to get some skin in this game...

[Arghhh]

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247

Here's a chance to get some skin in this game...

Pretty much free money by betting YES.

[MICRO]

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/bitcoin-will-pass-1000-by-the-end-of-this-year-247

Here's a chance to get some skin in this game...

Pretty much free money by betting YES.

Hm... I would not be so sure about it .

[galbros]

These are some cool charts, thanks.

While obviously no one knows, I do feel good about this week.  The 51% Ghash.io situation is priced in, the FBI sale is priced in, the weekend is over, we are sitting pretty at 600 USD and China can only ban bitcoin so many times.

I feel good about the coming week, maybe keithers is right and well see a move up to 700 USD this week.

Good Luck! 

[Chef Ramsay]

There's plenty of big time money chilling waiting for whatever is left of the bears to exit and then you'll see them come aboard. Wall st phase coming up followed by the main street phase and this will push the next rally. Mass adoption will come over the next few years. It will come on strong meaning moon shot.

[okthen]

There's plenty of big time money chilling waiting for whatever is left of the bears to exit and then you'll see them come aboard. Wall st phase coming up followed by the main street phase and this will push the next rally. Mass adoption will come over the next few years. It will come on strong meaning moon shot.

Maybe the internet-street phase will come before, with ebay leading.
Then wallst will gain confidence and the rest will follow as you say.

[JulieFig]

These are some cool charts, thanks.

While obviously no one knows, I do feel good about this week.  The 51% Ghash.io situation is priced in, the FBI sale is priced in, the weekend is over, we are sitting pretty at 600 USD and China can only ban bitcoin so many times.

I feel good about the coming week, maybe keithers is right and well see a move up to 700 USD this week.

Good Luck!  

Thanks for the positive comments.

Here are the updated charts.

I have put the zoomed-in-current-vs-past-trend chart in date form and adjusted our current trend (by 3 days) so that the peak now occurs at the latest allowable date (based on past data), which is 235 days from the last peak. Coincidentally, if the price does follow this trajectory, the end of the relatively stagnant period we are in now seems to occur on the 27th June (the day of the auction).

Again, this is all just speculation (obv) so this could all very well be entirely wrong. Not long to wait to find out though.

[JulieFig]

Regardless, if a peak does occur in the next 30 days and follows past trends, it seems it will be slightly less than the anticipated $5000 and more around the $3000 mark.

Assuming the run-up velocity is similar to past trends, the overall log-scale chart also has us hitting a peak of around $3000 now as well.

Still, based on where we are sitting now, I don't think anyone would be complaining about a $3000 peak in the next 30 days...