The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[howardb]

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

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[JulieFig]

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

Calm down, it's just a harmless little exercise. I'm more just curious to see how it goes, and I'm certainly not advocating basing trades on this prediction (for lack of a better term).

We all know bitcoin, the first phenomenon of its kind, is by its very nature unpredictable. Charts and whimsical predictions just allow us to think we have some measure of control over something that is inherently uncontrollable. Where's the harm in that?

[howardb]

Normally I would accept technical patterns as good indicators or hints at least of what to expect. But in the case of bitcoin i'm afraid it makes no sense
at all! especially at this stage of it's development. We are driven by events and news not trend.  Adoption rates create a trend in and of themselves, but there are far too many wild card factors moving this market to predict, not least of which:

a) Governments accouncements for or against bitcoin.

b) Mt.Gox type negative events (I'm personally expecting BTC-e.com to be a repeat of that, they are so cloaked in secrecy it stuns me anyone would ever send money there!.)

c) Retail adoption rates. This is accelerating, and the competition is hotting up in that space as the bitpays of this world try to establish themselves as no 1.

d) Global financial market, as it melts bitcoin goes up, try predicting when THAT will happen!

e) The emergence of regulation for bitcoin companies.

f) Remitance adoption, probably the biggest short term driver as this is the one that is so tangible and doable now. At the moment only 0.02% of the world are using bitcoin!

g) Individual country issues (Argentina debt default for example) citizens piling into bitcoin to prevent a repeat of previous collapse there.

The list goes on and on... and you want to try and predict with a chart??

Calm down, it's just a harmless little exercise. I'm more just curious to see how it goes, and I'm certainly not advocating basing trades on this prediction (for lack of a better term).

We all know bitcoin, the first phenomenon of its kind, is by its very nature unpredictable. Charts and whimsical predictions just allow us to think we have some measure of control over something that is inherently uncontrollable. Where's the harm in that?

You are misreading me, i'm not agitated at all! simply pointing out the pointless nature of the discussion. But I agree, no harm in it at all.

[trader001]

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

[JimboToronto]

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

Which government? Which gambling websites in which countries?

Why is this supposed to matter?

[the_poet]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

[madmat]

Don't forget government also going after gambling website which uses bitcoin.

You seem to forget USA is not the only country in the world.

[Dafar]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

[ssmc2]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

[the_poet]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

[Raystonn]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

[the_poet]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

This is not a prediction, but a fact.

[Raystonn]

All these prediction threads are hilarious.

This. Bunch of morons who have no idea what they're talking about

 Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I'll tell you a little secret: nobody can predict anything, unless you're the one (or one of those) influencing the market.

It sounds to me like you're predicting that nobody can predict anything.

This is not a prediction, but a fact.

Assuming you actually mean that nobody can accurately predict anything, and not just make a prediction, you'd have to wait to see what happens in the future to check if you are right.  Making a statement about what will or will not happen in the future is a prediction.  So you've made a prediction.

[Skele]

We will see btc breaking through 100000 in 2016,

*-* posts like this make my tears off of happiness *-*

[crocko]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

[hodap]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

[crocko]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

I like your optimism !
But I don't see any major event on the horizon which can affect the BTC price.
There is only one exception: Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, but this will not happen in July..

[wachtwoord]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet!

[crocko]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet!

I agree with you guys, but I am tired to wait for that day when the BTC will worth "something".
At this price of $600, you can't do to much with a BTC. Even if you purchase an ASIC, you will never get ROI..
IMHO ~ $600 it is not a good price for the top coin of this world.

[Asrael999]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

July is not over yet.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet!

I agree with you guys, but I am tired to wait for that day when the BTC will worth "something".
At this price of $600, you can't do to much with a BTC. Even if you purchase an ASIC, you will never get ROI..
IMHO ~ $600 it is not a good price for the top coin of this world.

Why would you buy a mining machine - buy more bitcoin instead. You will get more coins for your fiat buying at market, and get a better return if the price goes up.
That graph above is not fact, its a prediction based on prior patterns , predictions don't have to be right, patterns do not have to repeat. Have some patience.